Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Week 8 Rankings

Injuries are a big part of the game.

A lot of fantasy owners know that all to well after Week 7.  Last week I traded away my backup tight end (Martellus Bennett) for Steve Smith because I needed depth at WR going into the bye weeks.  I still had Jermichael Finley, so I thought I'd be all set.  The Packers had already had their bye, and with Randall Cobb being sidelined for a while, the situation couldn't have been better.  Well, Finley had a great game before taking another huge hit, which ultimately landed him in the hospital.  I didn't realize how bad it was until the next day, which made me feel horrible because all I was thinking about on Sunday was how I'd have to scramble to make another trade involving a tight end or roll the dice on the waiver wire.  I'm pretty sure my fantasy team will survive, and there are many more important things than football, much less fantasy football.  Apparently after the hit he took in Week 3 against the Bengals (in which he suffered a concussion), Jermichael's 5-year-old son sad "Daddy, I don't want you to play football anymore."  I don't care if you have children or not.  That tugs at the old heartstrings.  According to Finley's twitter, he is doing better, but there could be a long road ahead with his type of injury.  Hopefully he'll be OK and can get back onto the field at some point, if that's what's best for him and his family.

Foster has plenty of time to stretch the hammy on his bye.
That being said, it's appropriate that last week I talked at length about making trades, especially with the bye-heavy Weeks 8 & 9 now upon us.  On top of that, several key players left games in Week 7 with injuries (in addition to Finley).  Sam Bradford tore his ACL and Jay Cutler may have a severe groin issue.  Running backs Arian Foster and Doug Martin both left their games early with different injuries, and Martin's may be season-ending.  That adds to guys like Steven Jackson and DeMarco Murray who already have been missing games, not to mention Brandon Jacobs who I was high on last week but didn't play due to a hamstring issue.  Wide receivers weren't immune to the injury bug either, as Reggie Wayne was placed on the IR this week with a torn ACL.

It's a rough sport, and you need some depth on your fantasy squad.  These next couple of weeks, these rankings might prove crucial.  You may find yourself digging especially deep into the RB or WR lists, and hopefully I can find some hidden gems with decent matchups for you.  Speaking of which, one more quick thing before I get into the rankings.  Last week I suggested that if you wanted to post a comment below, I'd try to get back to you before kickoff on Sunday.  Clearly no one did that, but I did get a couple of text messages.  I'm typically watching soccer on Sunday mornings, which is immediately followed by Fantasy Football Now on ESPN.  So if you have questions, feel free to shoot them my way.  And if you'd rather use twitter, then  and I'll get a response back to you that way.  Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Lucky for me, this blogging thing is free...

OK, let's do the rankings!

BYES: Ravens, Bears, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Titans

QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Drew Brees
3.Aaron Rodgers
4.Matthew Stafford
5.RGIII
6.Tony Romo
7.Cam Newton
8.Michael Vick
9.Russell Wilson
10.Tom Brady
11.Matt Ryan
12.Colin Kaepernick
13.Eli Manning
14.Andy Dalton
15.Ben Roethlisberger
16.Carson Palmer
17.Terrelle Pryor
18.Ryan Tannehill
19.Alex Smith
20.Geno Smith


I kept the faith in Andrew Luck last week.  I had him as a top-5 play on Sunday night against the Broncos, and not only did he get the win against Peyton Manning and company, but he finished with the most fantasy points of all QBs in Week 7.  Manning turned in his usual top-5 performance himself, but little brother Eli looked pretty bad on Monday night.  He would've looked even worse if it wasn't by comparison.  Josh Freeman wasn't even close on over half of his passes.  I'm still not ranking Freeman this week, even though he has a nice matchup at home against Green Bay.  I guess I'll keep Eli relatively high, though I'll be lowering Nicks in my WR rankings.  To me, that guy looks like he's checked out of New York.  I have a feeling all of the rumors of him being involved in a trade might come to fruition any day now.

Rodgers and Ryan continued to put up top-10 fantasy numbers even though they were both without multiple top WRs.  I was also wrong about RGIII, as he had a top-5 fantasy day against the Bears.  He nearly had 300 yards passing, and he had 84 yards on the ground.  I like the way he's running the ball now, and I've moved him up considerably this week as the Redskins travel to Denver.  Teams are having a tough time running the ball against the Broncos, but quarterbacks don't seem to be having any problems against their secondary.  The guy I was high on last week was Jay Cutler, but he went out pretty early in that game with the groin injury (as I mentioned above).  It's hard to say what could have been if he didn't have that injury, so instead, I'll talk about a guy I added in my Friday update and proceeded to hype up in his matchup against the Patriots.  Geno Smith kept to his pattern of good game, bad game, good game,...and he had himself a near top-10 day against New England.  The Jets also won that game, which I also predicted.  Boom!  Geno earned his spot at the bottom of my rankings again this week, though I am concerned that he will continue to follow his pattern and once again have a bad game.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Vick's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack...........
Enough patting myself on the back about Geno because I also liked whoever started for the Eagles as a top-10 play last week, and that didn't happen.  The Cowboys had been giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and this game was supposed to be high scoring.  Well, it wasn't.  Romo and Foles were both held to below average numbers.  In fact, Foles had a horrible game before getting knocked out at the end of the 3rd quarter with a concussion.  Michael Vick should be back in there this week as the Eagles host the G-Men at home.  If he's back to 100% health, I think he'll play with a chip on his shoulder to prove he's  the starting QB, as well as it being a division game.
RBs
1.Marshawn Lynch
2.Jamaal Charles
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Frank Gore
5.Adrian Peterson
6.Knowshon Moreno
7.Eddie Lacy
8.Reggie Bush
9.Fred Jackson
10.Darren McFadden
11.Le'Veon Bell
12.Stevan Ridley
13.Alfred Morris
14.Darren Sproles
15.Giovani Bernard 
16.Joseph Randle
17.Zac Stacy
18.Maurice Jones-Drew
19.Jacquizz Rodgers
20.Mike James
21.Pierre Thomas
22.Lamar Miller
23.Chris Ivory
24.DeAngelo Williams
25.Andre Ellington
26.Peyton Hillis
27.Roy Helu, Jr.
28.CJ Spiller
29.Brandon Bolden
30.Willis McGahee
31.Rashard Mendenhall
32.Kendall Hunter
33.Bilal Powell
34.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
35.Daniel Thomas
36.Mike Tolbert
37.Ronnie Hillman
38.Joique Bell
39.Jason Snelling
40.Philip Tanner


They're not booing, folks.  They're Heluuuuuuuing!
I'm not sure how deep anyone was digging into my rankings last week, but rounding out the top-40 in the Friday update was Roy Helu, Jr.  I mentioned that he got 10 touches in Week 6 against Dallas (even with a healthy Alfred Morris playing). Well, Helu got 11 more carries in Week 7, and he took three of them to the house.  Of course I had a ton of guys ranked ahead of him, but it looks like he's becoming a bigger part of this offense every week.  I still view Morris as a top-10 or 15 RB, but Helu is creeping up the rankings...

I already mentioned that I was high on Brandon Jacobs last week, but he didn't suit up on Monday night.  So there's not much to say there.  I will say that for this week, I'm ranking Hillis (not Jacobs)...at least for now.  I was also really high on Danny Woodhead though (ESPN #30, ME #18) as he faced Jacksonville.  I actually had him ranked just ahead of Ryan Mathews, and both had double-digit fantasy numbers (with Mathews slightly higher).  I was down on a LOT of running backs last week.  First up was Stevan Ridley (ESPN #17, ME #25), who broke free for a 17-yard TD and landed himself right around where the ESPN experts had him.  I've actually moved him up considerably this week, as I'm starting to buy back into him.  

The biggest name I was down on in Week 7 was Trent Richardson (ESPN #14, ME #21), who was playing against that top-rated Denver run defense.  I said TRich would finish without double-digit fantasy points for the 3rd week in a row, and he finished outside of the top-40 altogether.  I also talked about Joseph Randle (ESPN #22, ME #30), who I thought was a nice flex play if you were desperate, but who I also thought wouldn't do a lot with his opportunity.  Well, the experts got it right, as he finished right at #22.  But Philip Tanner vultured a TD from him, and I still don't like him very much while Murray is sidelined.  Of course I say that, but you could do worse with all of those bye weeks, as I have him inside my top-20 this week.

It sounds like Steven Jackson and DeMarco Murray both could play this week, but I'm leaving them off for now.  Hopefully I'll know more by Friday, but you might have to keep an eye on their situations up until game time this week.  Atlanta could be without Roddy White for a second straight week as well, as he's been pretty much absent from my WR all year...

WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.Dez Bryant
3.Jordy Nelson
4.Victor Cruz
5.Demaryius Thomas
6.DeSean Jackson
7.AJ Green
8.Wes Welker
9.Vincent Jackson
10.Eric Decker
11.Larry Fitzgerald
12.Pierre Garcon
13.Justin Blackmon
14.Antonio Brown
15.Jarrett Boykin
16.Rueben Randle
17.Marques Colston
18.Mike Wallace
19.Steve Smith
20.Anquan Boldin
21.Josh Gordon
22.Cecil Shorts
23.Terrance Williams
24.Denarius Moore
25.Hakeem Nicks
26.Harry Douglas
27.Michael Floyd
28.Julian Edelman
29.Golden Tate
30.Stevie Johnson
31.Brian Hartline
32.Jeremy Kerley
33.Kris Durham
34.Brandon LaFell
35.Kenbrell Thompkins
36.Greg Jennings
37.Mike Williams
38.Emmanuel Sanders
39.Dwayne Bowe
40.Jerome Simpson

So maybe the BIG-3 is a misnomer
Last week I said that until Megatron showed that he was back to full health, he's a low-end WR1 for me. Well, he's showed that he's back to full health, finishing as the #1 fantasy WR in Week 7.  Just behind him was Vincent Jackson, who had 10 catches on 22 targets!  He also had a pair of touchdowns.  Most of the other usual suspects were near the top, including the Big Three targets for Peyton Manning, all of whom are in my top-10 this week.  But I want to talk about the guys I was high and low on versus the experts last week.

I mentioned that while I though Jordy Nelson would still put up decent numbers against Joe Haden, I liked Jarrett Boykin to step up with James Jones ruled out.  I had Boykin all the way up at #32 in my Friday update, while the experts conservatively kept him at #39.  The rookie out of Virginia Tech made the most of his opportunity, putting up over 100 yards and a touchdown.  Now that Jermichael Finley is sidelined indefinitely, I look for him to continue to be an integral part of that offense (even when James Jones returns).  Right now I have him as a top-20 play, but if there are indications that Jones will be back by my Friday update, I may be lowering him a bit.

I was high on a bunch of other guys last week too, all 
to varying degrees based on where I had them ranked.  Young receivers Justin Blackmon, Keenan Allen, and Brandon LaFell all had very average days.  Keenan Allen missed a large amount of snaps due to some sort of injury, but I think Blackmon's numbers were down slightly due to Cecil Shorts toughing out his injury.  LaFell has been hit or miss, and I mentioned that he was a risky flex play, but I'm doubling down on him this week.  I think with Steve Smith likely on Revis Island, LaFell will get a touchdown on Thursday night.  Another guy who I was high on who keeps finding the endzone is Reuben Randle (ESPN #37, ME #28), who now has 4 TDs in his last 3 games.  I mentioned earlier that I'd be lowering Hakeem Nicks, and I actually have Randle ahead of him in this week's rankings.

Finally, I'd like to remind everyone that I was down on Greg Jennings (ESPN #28, ME #36).  Some of the experts included Josh Freeman in their top-20 QBs for Week 8, so I guess the expectation was that he was ready and that would transfer to Jennings.  Well I didn't rank Freeman, as I thought it was pretty clear that he had very little time to learn the offense before getting his first start in the purple and gold.  And in addition to that fact, Jennings still  only has had one good game this season.  His other 5 games have now resulted in single-digit fantasy points.  I'm not sure why the experts continue to rank him like it's pre-2012, but it's time to lower him in the rankings a bit, fellas.  He did lead the Viking receivers in targets, so he's still in my top-40 (especially with all of the byes this week), but I hope you have better options because Josh Freeman looked rough on Monday night!

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Tony Gonzalez
4.Vernon Davis
5.Julius Thomas
6.Jason Witten
7.Jordan Reed
8.Jordan Cameron
9.Heath Miller
10.Charles Clay
11.Greg Olsen
12.Jeff Cumberland

Nearly a huge day for Gronk in his return, but still a solid performance.
Gronk had an instant impact in his return, with over 100 yards receiving and a near-touchdown.  With Jimmy Graham still possibly not back to full health, I'm putting Rob all the way up at the top spot.  With the bye weeks, there are a couple of new additions to the list: Jordan Reed and Jeff Cumberland.  Reed had a huge game against the Bears on Sunday, with Fred Davis as a healthy scratch.  I think it's possible that Davis gets left behind altogether, and Jordan has a good shot to put up double-digit fantasy numbers against Denver's weak pass defense in what should be a high-scoring affair.  With Jermichael Finley out, I've had to scour the waiver wire for a fill-in, and for this week, I like Cumberland.  He's been Geno Smith's safety valve, and while he may not put up double-digit fantasy numbers, he's nearly a sure thing for at least a handful of points.

With all of the WR injuries for Atlanta, I thought Tony Gonzalez would have gotten more looks against Tampa Bay.  And he probably would have if it weren't for all of the double teaming he saw from the Bucs.  He should have a little more room to operate against an Arizona team who is giving up a lot more fantasy points to tight ends this season.  As for the tight end I was high on last week, Charles Clay (ESPN #12, ME #9) only caught one pass, but it was for a TD!  Meanwhile, I was down on Antonio Gates (ESPN #2, ME #7), who was playing against a Jacksonville defense who had allowed a TD to opposing tight ends in 4 straight games.  Guess who didn't score against the Jags?  Gates!  He has quieted down in his last three contests now with the emergence of Keenan Allen, and I also mentioned that I liked the RBs to punch it in when they were near the goal line, which is exactly what happened!

DEF
1.Chiefs
2.Seahawks
3.49ers
4.Saints
5.Bengals
6.Packers
7.Panthers
8.Patriots
9.Steelers
10.Cardinals
11.Raiders
12.Jets

Kansas City failed to get a defensive touchdown against a Houston offense that had been giving them away on a weekly basis.  Case Keenum actually managed the game pretty well for the Texans, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the starter moving forward for them.  The Chiefs finished just outside of the top-10, but I still like them as an elite fantasy defense this week at home against the Browns.  In fact, I have them ranked at my top spot yet again.

I had my Bengals defense ranked at the bottom of my top-12, and they struggled at Detroit.  Luckily I sat them and picked up the Panthers, who had given up the second fewest points to opposing offenses on average and was a top-5 fantasy defense (even though they'd yet to record a defensive TD).  Well, Carolina is still both of those things, and they got that defensive TD on the first drive of the day for the Rams.  They went on to pound Sam Bradford and company and ended up as the #1 fantasy defense in Week 6.  I like them as a top-10 play again in a shortened week as they travel to Tampa Bay, who has a rookie QB and should be without Doug Martin.  A tough decision for me since I now have Carolina and Cincy, but I think I'll have to go with the Bengals, who have put up a ton of defensive fantasy points in their home games this season.  Another guy in my league has Kansas City and San Fran, which I think is an even tougher choice to make.  Both of us should  be OK no matter who we pick, but I guess we'll find out on Sunday.

If your defense plays the Jags, it's tough to sit em...
The Chargers were a nice plug-and-play defense last week, as they played Jacksonville.  San Francisco gets the Jags this week, so they're obviously near the top of the list.  Last week I was somewhat high on the Lions (ESPN #22, ME #11), but that was a swing and a miss.  I mentioned that in Detroit's 2 home games, their defense put up top-10 fantasy numbers.  Well not last week against the Bengals, as Andy Dalton had another stellar performance.  I won't be ranking them this week as the Cowboys come to town.  On the other hand, I was down on the Vikings (ESPN #11, ME not ranked).  I think everyone was playing the matchup because the Giants were 0-6 and giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.  But I liked the G-Men to put up some points and get their first win of the year (which happened).  I thought Minnesota might put up 7-10 fantasy points (which also happened, based on my league's scoring).

We'll see how many of them I can get right this week, and I'll give some comparisons in my Friday update once the expert rankings come out later today!

Cheers,
Bart

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