Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Week 6 Rankings

Time to get on the same page, boys.
Last week, I said you needed to hang in there on guys like Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Roddy White & Gronk.  Little Ray finally had a good game, and Spiller at least showed signs of why he was a first round fantasy pick.  Roddy White had his best game of the year against the Jets, but that's not saying much with 4 catches for 45 yards.  The Falcons have been struggling as a team though, and they get a much needed bye here in Week 6.  I look for Roddy to be healthy and back to his old self come Week 7, and he'll need to be if it turns out Julio Jones is out for an extended period of time.  As for Gronk, it's possible he returns this week.  Then again, who knows?  What I do know is that he's definitely worth waiting for.

Someone I mentioned here last week who's not worth waiting for?...Maurice Jones-Drew.  I mean, he had mediocre numbers against a Rams defense that allowed stupid rushing numbers to Frank Gore and DeMarco Murray in the prior weeks.  And while it looks like the Jags are going back to Chad Henne (which should improve their offense), that can only help them so much this week as they travel to Denver.  The Broncos opened as a 28 point favorite in this one, the largest in the NFL...ever!  Let's see what they had to say about the upcoming matchup (and what Jacksonville had to say in response):


Nice.

The point is, it's time to readjust your expectations for guys like MJD and stop looking at him as a 2nd round draft pick.  Here are some other running backs who have us reconsidering their draft day values: Stevan Ridley (finds himself injured and in a committee when he is healthy), Ryan Mathews (perennial disappointment), and Montee Ball (might be a year too early for the rookie on that Denver team).  There are others, and it always seems to happen with running backs.  The turnover is pretty quick in the NFL with these workhorses.  You may be thinking that Alfred Morris belongs in this conversation, but not so fast.  We don't have any indication that he's lost the job for the Redskins, but we clearly see that with some of those other guys.  In fact, I like Alfred to shred the Cowboys this Sunday night as my team gets back to business.  On that note, let's do the rankings!

(BYES: Falcons & Dolphins)

QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Tony Romo
3.Drew Brees
4.Tom Brady
5.Philip Rivers
6.Aaron Rodgers
7.Andrew Luck
8.RGIII
9.Jay Cutler
10.Cam Newton
11.Matthew Stafford
12.Joe Flacco
13.Terrelle Pryor
14.Colin Kaepernick
15.Andy Dalton
16.Russell Wilson 
17.Chad Henne
18.Alex Smith
19.Eli Manning
20.Ben Roethlisberger

In Week 5, Peyton had another huge fantasy day (which included a rare rushing TD), but he was #2 behind the guy on the other side of the ball in that shootout: Tony Romo.  Of course, no matter how great of a game Romo had, I'll only remember that key interception he threw at the end to help the Cowboys lose.  Who was the #3 QB for the week?  OK.  That was Geno Smith.  (I know, weird right?)  But who was #4...?  Sam Bradford, baby!  I had him ranked 5 spots higher than the experts last week, and he put up 3 TDs (and no INTs) against that horrible Jacksonville team.  What a difference a week can make though, as I have him just outside my top-20 for Week 6 as he goes on the road to play the Texans.  On the flipside, I was down on Andrew Luck (ranking him 18th, while ESPN had him at 11th).  And sure enough, Luck finished as a top-10 QB.  Against that Seattle defense, I'm definitely surprised.  But now I don't have any reason to rank him outside the top-10 for the foreseeable future, and he's probably the biggest riser in my rankings this week.
Nothing says "Charm City" like these two.

I should mention that Brees had a top-10 day against the Bears, but Aaron Rodgers barely cracked the top-15 in a solid (but not amazing) fantasy week against the Lions.  I'm sure Rodgers will bounce back this week, in a game that I'll be seeing in person on my 1 year wedding anniversary!  That's right.  My wife and I will be in Baltimore this weekend, celebrating one year of marriage in basically the most romantic city in the world.  And I don't know what could be more romantic than seeing a football game on the day we were married.  It almost makes me want to cry...


As for this week's rankings, I like Cutler a lot in tomorrow night's game, and I barely have Eli in my top-20 against that tough Bears defense.  One QB I don't feel comfortable ranking this week is Matt Schaub.  Houston's head coach has been wavering a little on Schaub after his recent struggles, and I think he'll be on a short leash against St. Louis.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him pulled midway through this game, which is why I just removed him from my top-20 altogether.  One guy who barely missed the cut is Nick Foles, who I think will make the most of his opportunity with Vick out.  You'll see him in the Friday update once Jay and Eli are off the list.
RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
2.Arian Foster
3.Jamaal Charles
4.Marshawn Lynch
5.LeSean McCoy
6.Matt Forte
7.Ray Rice
8.DeMarco Murray
9.Doug Martin
10.Alfred Morris
11.Frank Gore
12.Knowshon Moreno
13.Reggie Bush
14.Trent Richardson 
15.Giovani Bernard
16.Eddie Lacy
17.Chris Johnson
18.Fred Jackson
19.DeAngelo Williams
20.Darren Sproles
21.CJ Spiller
22.Le'Veon Bell
23.Maurice Jones-Drew
24.Willis McGahee
25.Danny Woodhead
26.Bilal Powell
27.Pierre Thomas
28.Zac Stacy
29.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
30.Brandon Bolden
31.Rashard Mendenhall
32.Ronnie Hillman
33.Marcel Reece
34.Andre Ellington
35.Da'Rel Scott
36.Ben Tate
37.Joique Bell
38.Daryl Richardson
39.LaGarrette Blount
40.Ronnie Brown

I was dead wrong on my hyped guys last week, as I was high on Giovani Bernard and down on Knowshon Moreno.  While Gio still had a nice yards/touch average, it didn't manifest itself on the scoreboard.  Meanwhile, Knowshon finished as the #3 RB in Week 5 and made me look silly.  I've moved him up considerably in my rankings this week because, as you know, Denver hosts Jacksonville.  This should put him in RB1 territory for Week 6, and if the Broncos put up as many points as the wise guys are expecting, it could mean a decent day for Ronnie Hillman as well (heck, maybe even Montee Ball if they're up really big).  A guy I was right about being horrible in Week 4 was Rashard Mendenhall, but he bounced back last week against Carolina.  I still think it's only a matter of time before we see mostly Ellington, but for now, they're splitting the workload pretty evenly.

Zac Stacy is now a top waiver pickup this  week...mwahaha!
One guy I was spot on with last week was Zac Stacy.  With news that Daryl Richardson might not start for the Rams against Jacksonville, I decided to pick up Stacy in my money league (on Thursday).  When Sunday rolled around, Jeff Fisher named him the starter.  I even put my money where my mouth was and inserted him into my fantasy lineup.  He had a solid day, nearly reaching double digit fantasy points on yards alone.  In the end, it didn't matter in my matchup, as Matt Ryan put the nail in my coffin in a losing effort against the Jets.  But I'm happy to have nailed it myself with picking up Stacy, and he could solidify the starting job even more if he can get it going against Houston this week.

Last week, I also mentioned that if you're tired of playing a guy like David Wilson, then stop.  It's your team, and you can do what you want!  I even suggested putting in Danny Woodhead if you felt so inclined.  Yes, I had Wilson ranked higher, but the point was that you didn't have to be like the Jacksonville Jaguars who was sticking with Gabbert (now this is ringing a bell, yes...?).  As it turned out, Wilson finally found the endzone Sunday, but he couldn't manage double digit fantasy points before leaving the game with a neck injury.  Who did manage over 10 points?  You guessed it: Danny Woodhead.  I just thought that was worth mentioning too (*wink*).

As for my Week 6 rankings, I'm assuming a lot of guys won't play due to injury, which could obviously change as the week progresses.  Some notables who aren't on the list as of now: McFadden (and Jennings), Ryan Mathews, David Wilson, and Stevan Ridley.  Hopefully I'll have more clarity on these RBs in my Friday update..

WRs
1.Dez Bryant
2.AJ Green
3.Brandon Marshall
4.Calvin Johnson
5.Demaryius Thomas
6.Pierre Garcon
7.Wes Welker
8.Andre Johnson
9.Victor Cruz
10.Torrey Smith
11.Randall Cobb
12.Reggie Wayne
13.Jordy Nelson
14.Eric Decker
15.Danny Amendola 
16.Josh Gordon
17.Justin Blackmon
18.Alshon Jeffery
19.Antonio Brown
20.James Jones
21.Cecil Shorts
22.Steve Smith
23.T.Y. Hilton
24.Larry Fitzgerald
25.DeSean Jackson
26.Vincent Jackson
27.Anquan Boldin
28.Dwayne Bowe
29.Marques Colston
30.Hakeem Nicks
31.Denarius Moore
32.Vincent Brown
33.Terrance Williams
34.Stevie Johnson
35.Kenbrell Thompkins
36.Mike Williams
37.DeAndre Hopkins
38.Keenan Allen
39.Julian Edelman
40.Austin Pettis

This is what I want to see on Sunday: Megatron on the sideline!
Megatron didn't suit up on Sunday, which was a pretty shocking development considering he hadn't missed a game since 2009.  It sounds like he's dealing with a knee issue and might not be 100% even if he does go up against Joe Haden and the Browns on Sunday.  I'm potentially facing him in my money league this week, so I'm hoping he misses the game altogether, but I think Haden could keep him somewhat honest if he does give it a go.  You'll notice my top-20 has Peyton's top 3 targets along with Aaron's top 3 as well.  If you have one of these WRs, you're playing them every week.  Drew Brees and Tom Brady are a little harder to figure out though.  Colston hasn't been putting up big numbers so far this season, and I'm thinking Brady will start going more to Amendola, but we'll see what happens with Thompkins and Edelman.  I think Amendola's targets will cut more into Edelman's numbers, but they'll be throwing Gronk into the mix soon too.  

Speaking of Patriot wide receivers, I stayed down on Danny Amendola and didn't rank him last week.  I said that even if he played in Week 5 (which he did), he didn't immediately jump back into the top-20 for me.  I was right on that count, as Amendola didn't even crack the top-40 WRs.  But I also said he wouldn't finish with the most fantasy points among the New England WRs (he did).  It was a rough day all around for Brady and the Pats.  I think he'll bounce back at home against the Saints, and we'll see some better numbers from Danny and the rest of the wideouts.  This time, I think he will  have the most fantasy points of any of them!

Last week I was high on pretty much every Ram, including Tavon Austin (ESPN #40, ME #32).  Most people had Chris Givens ahead of him in their WR rankings, and rightly so.  Givens is clearly the #1 WR for St. Louis, but I just liked Austin's big play potential more.  Neither receiver did much against Jacksonville in Week 5, and Austin still hasn't found much room to run since that Week 2 game at Atlanta (for the record, Tavon did end up with more fantasy points on the week though).  Another Austin (Pettis) seems to be getting a lot of the love from Bradford, and I think he's the only Ram WR worth a look for now.

TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Jason Witten
3.Julius Thomas
4.Vernon Davis
5.Jordan Cameron
6.Antonio Gates
7.Rob Gronkowski
8.Greg Olsen
9.Martellus Bennett
10.Garrett Graham
11.Jermichael Finley
12.Coby Fleener

The usual suspects did their thing, and it was Orange Julius who claimed the top spot for the week with over 100 yards and 2 TDs against Dallas.  I ranked Jermichael Finley in my top-10 after all in my Friday ranking update, but he didn't do much.  I'm still a little concerned with him moving forward as he may have gotten rattled from that concussion.  Luckily I started Martellus Bennett, who had a better game, though he couldn't find the endzone for a third straight week.  I'm sticking with Bennett in Week 6 though, as he goes tomorrow night against a Giants defense giving up the 5th most points to TEs in fantasy this season.

Last week I left Coby Fleener in my top-12, with Charles Clay just on the fringe.  It turns out Clay got himself a TD and Fleener didn't.  As for Greg Olsen versus Jared Cook, the experts were right: Olsen had the better day.  In fact, Lance Kendricks stole another red zone touchdown from Cook, who hasn't really done much of anything since Week 1.  It's time to get him out of my rankings, and I guess I'll finally get Gronk in there.  I don't feel good about ranking him until I have more information on whether he's starting or not, but it seems like it's happening.  And unlike last week with Amendola, I think Rob jumps right into the top-10 TEs in his first game back.  Even if he's limited on a snap count, if he plays, he's getting a touchdown.

I seriously can't tell who is who. Just pick up Graham...
The big injury news this week in the world of tight ends is in Houston.  It looks like Owen Daniels will miss 4-6 weeks with a broken fibula, and that opens the door wide open for Garrett Graham.  With Daniels potentially out until week 11 or 12, unless you're 5-0 and have plenty of bench space, I think it's fair to drop him right away.  Those bye weeks are coming quickly now, and if you aren't forced to waive him this week, it could easily be one of the next couple of weeks.  Graham has basically the same size and athletic ability as Daniels, has the same number of TDs as him this season (3), and he even went to the same college as the guy (Wisconsin).  It'll be like Daniels never even got hurt!  I like Graham as an instant top-10 play this week against St. Louis.

DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Chiefs
3.Bears
4.49ers
5.Bengals
6.Texans
7.Broncos
8.Panthers
9.Bucs
10.Browns
11.Jets
12.Colts

In Week 5, I was high on the Panthers (ESPN #11, ME #4) and I was down on the Ravens (ESPN #3, ME #7).  As it turns out, both finished just outside of the top-12.  However, both defenses had double digit fantasy points in my league, and Carolina did have a couple more points than Baltimore.  As for the Titans (who I hyped up in general), they didn't beat the Chiefs, but they put up double digit fantasy points as well.  On the other side of the ball in that game, the Chiefs were a top-5 defense, and they stay near the top of my rankings this week.


I'm now feeling a little better about my Bengals defense.  Last week, they snapped Tom Brady's streak of 52 games with a TD pass.  Pretty impressive.  I was worried about playing them though, so I started the Rams against Jacksonville.  Both were top-10 defenses in Week 5, so I can't complain there.  The Rams are off my rankings this week, but the Bengals are still up there as they travel to Buffalo, who's starting...Thad Lewis?  That's what I'm talkin' about!

Bring it on, THAD!

Here's to hoping the Giants can get to 0-6 tomorrow night, and I'll discuss that and other developments in my Friday rankings update...

Cheers,
Bart

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