Friday, September 27, 2013

Week 4 Rankings: Friday Update

Meat and potatoes...mmm.
On Fridays, I usually have a lot to say about the Thursday night game.  But to be honest, last night I didn't actually watch much of it.  There were several factors involved here, but most important was the fact that it was my wife's 28th birthday.  We went out and had a nice dinner at Viceroy (which I highly recommend), and we actually did flip on the game when we got home.  At that point it was 7-3, so we went back and forth a little with the battle of the Techs college game.  Between the end of the 1st half and start of the 2nd half, I probably saw about a quarter of the Rams/49ers game.  So I'll comment where I can, but I'll focus more on my guys I'm high/low on versus the ESPN rankings.

Let's get into the Friday update, shall we?

QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Drew Brees
3.Tony Romo
4.Tom Brady
5.Matt Ryan
6.RGIII
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Michael Vick
9.Ben Roethlisberger
10.Andrew Luck
11.Terrelle Pryor
12.Philip Rivers
13.Jay Cutler
14.Russell Wilson
15.Alex Smith
16.Andy Dalton
17.Joe Flacco
18.Ryan Tannehill
19.Eli Manning
20.EJ Manuel

I had Kaepernick at #8 this week, but he didn't quite put up a top-10 performance.  We'll have to wait and see, but I'm starting to get pretty nervous about him.  Luckily I don't own him in either of my leagues, so I don't really have to worry about it.  I had Bradford at #19, and I know he'll finish well outside of the top-20.  That was a bit of a surprise to me because while the 49er defense has been good in recent years, they've had a slow start to the season.  Meanwhile, Bradford had gotten off to a great start.  Oh well.  Added to the bottom of my rankings are Eli Manning and EJ Manuel.  It might've been a little harsh having Eli completely out of my top-20, but I think there are much better options this week looking at how the Giants have been playing.  As for Manuel, he's a bit of a risky start with the way that Baltimore defense has been playing (the Ravens haven't given up a touchdown since Week 1).  Hopefully you're not starting someone who I have ranked that low, but he has been putting up decent numbers so far this season.

I'm telling you, I'm a top-5 play this week.
I'm high on: Tom Brady (ESPN #8, ME #4)
I know, really going out on a limb here.  Well, Brady is currently outside of the top-20 fantasy QBs after 3 games, so having him in my top-5 is a little bold for this week.  I think he finally puts it all together against a struggling Falcons defense.  He's starting to click with his rookies, and he could be getting Gronk back this week.  Either way, I like him to be in true gaudy-fantasy-numbers Tom Brady form in Week 4.

I'm down on: Michael Vick (ESPN #4, ME #9)
Vick put up huge numbers on the Redskins and Chargers in the first two weeks of the season, but he looked pretty pedestrian against the Chiefs last Thursday night.  The Broncos are currently the top-rated defense against the run, and that's what Chip Kelly likes to get going in his offense.  I think Vick could struggle a little in Denver this week, especially trying to scramble around and get those important fantasy points with his legs.

RBs
1.Jamaal Charles
2.Adrian Peterson
3.Matt Forte
4.LeSean McCoy
5.Alfred Morris
6.Trent Richardson 
7.Darren McFadden
8.Marshawn Lynch
9.Arian Foster
10.Doug Martin
11.Ray Rice
12.CJ Spiller
13.Reggie Bush
14.DeMarco Murray
15.Bilal Powell
16.Maurice Jones-Drew
17.Chris Johnson
18.Darren Sproles
19.Knowshon Moreno
20.Lamar Miller
21.Joique Bell
22.Giovanni Bernard
23.David Wilson
24.Ahmad Bradshaw
25.Stevan Ridley
26.Jason Snelling
27.La'Veon Bell
28.Ryan Mathews
29.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
30.Jacquizz Rodgers
31.Bernard Pierce
32.Brandon Bolden
33.Rashard Mendenhall
34.Fred Jackson
35.Willis McGahee
36.Pierre Thomas
37.Danny Woodhead
38.Daniel Thomas
39.Marcel Reece
40.Michael Bush

All of San Fran's running backs got in on the action last night, but Frank Gore did his damage early.  I had him ranked pretty highly (again) at #9, and it looks like he'll be a top-5 RB this week.  Isaiah Pead was inactive last night, but Daryl Richardson didn't do anything with his opportunities.  I had him ranked at #30, but I'm not so sure what I'll do next week as the Rams host Jacksonville.  It's a good matchup from a fantasy perspective, but I don't know which Rams RB to go with at this point!  I added a couple of boring guys to the bottom of my RB list.  Marcel Reece got more touches last week, and I could see him catching a TD pass this week against Washington.  And sorry Matt Forte owners, but the new coach has basically declared Michael Bush the "goal line back" moving forward.  We'll see if he sticks to that, but I might be shuffling my Bears RBs next week quite a bit if he's serious about it.

This will happen again this week.  Put it on the boooooooooard!
I'm high on: Jason Snelling
(ESPN #35, ME #27)
It's probably not surprising that I'm also NOT high on Jacquizz Rodgers this week (ESPN has him ranked nearly 10 spots higher than I do).  I realize that Rodgers might be in on the majority of snaps, but Snelling is still a big part of this offense.  And once the Falcons are inside the 10 yard line, they'll bring in the big boy to sniff out the endzone.  I think while he might not rack up a ton of yardage, he'll definitely hit paydirt at least once in this game.

I'm down on: Rashard Mendenhall (ESPN #27, ME #35)
Weird...ESPN and I have Mendenhall and Snelling completely switched in our rankings.  Anyway, I've already mentioned how this committee in Arizona is quickly becoming a threesome.  While this may sound great to some in reality, it's never good for a fantasy running back.  Added to that is the fact that Mendy is playing at Tampa Bay, who has a solid run defense that has yet to give up a rushing TD this season.  

WRs
1.Dez Bryant
2.Calvin Johnson
3.Julio Jones
4.AJ Green
5.Brandon Marshall
6.Demaryius Thomas
7.DeSean Jackson
8.Wes Welker
9.Pierre Garcon
10.Eric Decker
11.Antonio Brown
12.Reggie Wayne
13.Torrey Smith
14.Victor Cruz
15.Vincent Jackson
16.Larry Fitzgerald
17.Josh Gordon
18.Marques Colston
19.Julian Edelman
20.Andre Johnson
21.Dwayne Bowe
22.Mike Wallace
23.Cecil Shorts
24.Hakeem Nicks
25.Steve Johnson
26.T.Y. Hilton
27.Brian Hartline
28.Eddie Royal
29.Emmanuel Sanders
30.DeAndre Hopkins
31.Kenbrell Thompkins
32.Denarius Moore 
33.Miles Austin 
34.Golden Tate
35.Mike Williams
36.Stephen Hill
37.Ryan Broyles
38.Roddy White
39.Marlon Brown
40.Aaron Dobson

I basically doubled down on all of my 49ers this week against St. Louis, and it paid off for Boldin too.  I had him ranked at #15, and he'll probably finish right around there (possibly even top-10).  On the other side of the ball, it was pretty ugly for Rams WRs.  I had Austin and Givens both ranked (28 & 37, respectively), and while they didn't do much last night, I'm sure both will bounce back next week against the Jags.  I might even rank Austin Pettis in Week 5, as he's starting to get a lot more looks in that offense.

With those guys off the list for this week, I've added usual suspects Roddy White, Marlon Brown, and Aaron Dobson.  Maybe this is the week Roddy starts shaking off that injury.  Again, I have him ranked pretty low, so you're probably not starting him until next week.  Marlon Brown gets a nice matchup with Buffalo, and with Ray Rice still a little banged up, maybe Baltimore goes to the air a little more.  As for Dobson, this is more of a gut call (and also somewhat contingent on Gronk remaining on the sidelines).  If Brady still only has essentially Edelman, Thompkins, and Dobson to throw to (in addition to his RBs), I have to like Dobson a little bit.  I mean, I have Brady as a top-5 play this week.  So yeah, I guess Dobson should put up some decent numbers...

We won't see this on Sunday.  What'll that mean for VJax?
I'm high on: Emmanuel Sanders (ESPN #37, ME #31)
Minnesota has given up a ton of yards to Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, and...yes, Brian Hoyer.  This home game for the Vikings is being played in England, where I'm sure there will be plenty of terrible towels.  I think Roethlisberger will have a good game, and his receivers will benefit from Minnesota's weak secondary.

I'm down on: Vincent Jackson (ESPN #9, ME #16)
Jackson hurt his ribs in the game against New England in Week 3.  And now Josh Freeman is getting benched for Mike Glennon.  I'm not so sure that'll be an upgrade for anyone's fantasy value in Tampa, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.  For now, I'm moving Jackson outside of the WR1 level.

TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Jason Witten
3.Julius Thomas
4.Jordan Cameron
5.Antonio Gates
6.Martellus Bennett
7.Tony Gonzalez 
8.Owen Daniels
9.Heath Miller
10.Brandon Myers
11.Coby Fleener
12.Charles Clay

Vernon Davis suited up and had a modest game last night, but he did haul in a touchdown.  Meanwhile, Jared Cook remained a big part of the Rams offense, though that was fairly reduced by the Niners defense in this contest.  It was actually Lance Kendricks who got a meaningless 4th quarter TD for the Rams, which helped absolutely no one in fantasyland.  With those two TEs off the list, I've added Coby Fleener and Charles Clay to my rankings.  Dwayne Allen is out for the year, and now Fleener (Luck's Stanford buddy) becomes his main TE target.  It also doesn't hurt that they're playing Jacksonville this week.  As for Clay, he's been getting plenty of touches early on for Miami.  If anything, he could be a good guy to have just in case you have someone like Gronk who might not suit up (status will be a game time decision I'm sure).

No, not booing.  They're saying....Heeeeeath? Someone explain this to me..
My TE rankings are almost identical to ESPN's, so I'm just going to mention Heath Miller (ESPN #13, ME #11).  With Cook and Davis now off the list, Miller becomes a top-10 tight end play for me in Week 4.  He is still recovering from an ACL injury, so he could be on a snap count.  But even if he only plays half of the offensive plays, I still like him to find the endzone this week.  Minnesota has given up 6 TDs to tight ends in their first 3 games...carry the 1...divide by pi...yeah, that's 2 TDs/game.  Put Heath down for one.

DEF
1.Chiefs
2.Bengals
3.Bears
4.Broncos
5.Seahawks
6.Ravens
7.Steelers
8.Colts
9.Texans
10.Bucs
11.Titans
12.Saints

I had the 49ers as a top-10 defense, and they definitely played like it last night.  The Rams?  Not so much.  Of course, they weren't even close to being in my rankings this week, but I did pick them up as a stash for Week 5.  (If you don't know by now that they're playing the Jags next week, then you've really been skimming through this article.)  I'm surprising myself a little bit here, but I'm actually adding the Saints to my...defensive rankings?  Rob Ryan has these guys flying around the ball, and they're a top-10 fantasy defense through 3 games.  I realize Miami is also 3-0, but this game is in New Orleans on Monday Night Football.  That crowd is going to be full of booze and gumbo, and I think the defense will feed off that energy.

I'm high on: Titans (ESPN #18, ME #12)
Tennessee has scored double digit fantasy points in each of their first 3 games, and like New Orleans they're a top-10 defense so far.  This week they get a home game against a rookie quarterback, so I don't see why they wouldn't be a solid start once again.

I'm down on: Patriots (ESPN #12, ME not ranked)
Not only did I not rank New England this week, but if I ranked 20 defenses, I don't think they'd be on my list.  Granted, the Patriots are also a top-10 fantasy defense as of right now, but I don't quite believe in them like I do the other two I've mentioned.  They've played the Bills, Jets, and Bucs.  Two of those teams have rookie QBs, and the other one is now benching their starter for a rookie.  This week they play in Atlanta, who is going to be looking to get a big win after a slow 1-2 start.  I think this game will be a shootout with well over 50 total points scored.  I wouldn't count on a defense in this one.

Good luck to everyone in Week 4!

Cheers,
Bart

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