Week 1 Rankings

Some people have weird rules for themselves when it comes to drafting (or not drafting) certain players.  The only rule I try to follow is simple: stick to my rankings.  It doesn't always work out, but that's my rule nonetheless.

I had my "fun league" draft over Labor Day weekend, and as always, QBs went super early.  By the middle of the 5th round, all of the signal callers who I have ranked in my top-10 had been drafted.  So what did I do?  I waited...and waited......and waited some more.  In the 9th round of my draft, I finally ended up with my starting QB: Tony Romo.

"What?!?!?"
"{GROOOOAN}"
"Did you really just take him...?"

Great.  I drafted Tweedledum and Tweedledee.  Who do I start this week...?

Shock and disbelief was aplenty in the draft room.  But he was the best (fantasy) QB on the board, according to my rankings.  And by a long shot.  Yes, I'm a Redskins fan.  Yes, I hate the Cowboys.  But I had already drafted Dez Bryant earlier that evening (and in the 3rd round in a 12-team league...I couldn't pass on him at that point!).  There weren't a ton of puzzled faces when I did that, so why with Romo?  Maybe it's just because he's the QB for Dallas.  Maybe it's because he's pretty hated in general, unless you're a Cowboy fan, of course.  Whatever the reason, people were astonished at my selection.

And do you know what I followed it up with in the 10th round?  I got a backup QB: Eli Manning.  Ha!  NFC East, baby!!!  I mean, come on people.  This is my fun league.  Let me have some fun!  I was definitely under the influence of a few Ray Ray's Pale Ales, but I knew what I was doing.  I even thought about taking Vick a couple rounds later, but luckily the owner of "The Magician's Alliance" saved me from having the entire non-RG3 NFC East QB team.

The point is, I stuck to my rankings.  I didn't worry about having a fantasy QB who I hate in real life.  Because you know what?  I may not like his personality (or his football team), but I don't mind the numbers I think he'll put up this year.  That isn't to say that I think the Cowboys will make the playoffs (I don't), but that doesn't matter in fantasy either.  All that matters is that Romo gets me some fantasy points.  Will I be secretly rooting for him to put up good numbers when they play my Redskins?  The answer is simple.  HELL NO!!!  Fantasy is great, but it's secondary to the real deal.  And if you're a true fan of an NFL team, I hope you never lose sight of that.

Last year I didn't do week one rankings because I was way too busy (wedding stuff, I guess).  But this year, I have my priorities straight (kidding, honeyyyy).  This year, I'm going to do my best to get a weekly rankings done by Wednesday, and then have an updated list on Friday or Saturday.  No guarantees, but that's my goal anyway.  A lot changes over the course of a week, especially when injuries start piling up.  As for the actual rankings, let me remind you that these are my rankings.  If you want to use them, go for it.  If you want to use someone else's, fine.  Ultimately, I think you need to make up your own mind and listen to your gut.  If you don't have much of a gut, then feel free to use these rankings on gameday.  My gut isn't always right, but I have enough to go around.

Whatever! I can get more than 5 points. Watch this pass!!!

I'm assuming a max 12 team league, so I'm not going to rank 32 QBs, 50+ RBs, etc.  If you really want to know if you should start or sit Brandon Weeden or Philip Rivers, then your team is seriously in trouble.  Go check Yahoo, ESPN, or whatever other website you want.  But I'm not ranking everyone here.  I'll give you what I think is enough to know who to start or sit, and if it's not then let me know.  I'm also not ranking kickers.  I didn't even draft a kicker in my money league, and I'll probably just stream them all season.  It's not worth my time to rank them, but other sites do if you want to be able to point the finger at someone else when Matt Prater only gets you 5 points against the Ravens in Week One.  Uh oooooh!  Fantasy kicker smack talk! 

OK.  Story time is over.  Let's get into the first weekly rankings of the 2013 NFL Season!!!

QBs

1.Drew Brees

2.Tom Brady

3.Peyton Manning

4.Aaron Rodgers

5.Andrew Luck

6.Matt Ryan

7.Colin Kaepernick

8.Matthew Stafford 9.Russell Wilson 10.Tony Romo 11.RGIII 12.Cam Newton 13.Eli Manning

14.Michael Vick 15.Ben Roethlisberger 16.Matt Schaub  17.Joe Flacco  18.Sam Bradford 19.Andy Dalton 20.EJ Manuel                 Dominating the Raiders?  So easy, a caveman could do it... With the usual suspects in my top-4, it would appear that I'm taking zero risks with my rankings to start the fantasy season.  But Brees at home to start the season is pretty solid, no matter who he's playing.  Brady against the Bills?  I don't care who his receivers are.  He's a lock for 3+ TDs.  It's hard not to rank those guys at the top.  In fact, I might be going a little against the grain NOT ranking Matt Ryan in my top-5.  I actually like Andrew Luck at home against the Raiders, rather than Ryan away at New Orleans.  It's a tough call, but I'm just going with my gut here.  Sorry, Matty Ice. You'll also notice all of my NFC East QBs there from #10-14.  I think all are most likely startable this week.  And if you drafted any of them, you're probably starting them anyway.  Andy Dalton was my guy toward the end of 2012, but he's pretty low on my list as he has a tough opener at Chicago.  Speaking of that game, you'll notice that Jay Cutler doesn't make my list.  Maybe he'll change my mind during this season, but it's not going to be before the opening kickoff.

RBs

1.Jamaal Charles

2.Adrian Peterson 3.Stevan Ridley 4.CJ Spiller

5.Doug Martin 6.Ray Rice 7.LeSean McCoy 8.Alfred Morris 9.Steven Jackson 10.Trent Richardson  11.Marshawn Lynch 12.Maurice Jones-Drew 13.Arian Foster 14.David Wilson 15.Matt Forte 16.Reggie Bush 17.Chris Johnson 18.Frank Gore 19.DeMarco Murray 20.Darren McFadden 21.Darren Sproles 22.Lamar Miller 23.Ahmad Bradshaw 24.Ryan Mathews 25.Eddie Lacy 26.Chris Ivory 27.Daryl Richardson 28.Rashard Mendenhall 29.Shane Vereen 30.Isaac Redman 31.Montee Ball 32.DeAngelo Williams 33.Giovanni Bernard 34.Ben Tate 35.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 36.Vick Ballard 37.Mark Ingram 38.Ronnie Hillman 39.Michael Bush 40.Jacquizz Rodgers Adrian Peterson will most likely end up being the #1 overall RB in fantasy football this year, but that doesn't mean he'll be the top dog every week.  OK.  So maybe it's highly likely he'll run all over the Lions, but I actually think it's also very likely that Jamaal Charles goes off on the Jags in Week 1.  They weren't terrible against the pass in 2012, but Jacksonville was one of the absolute worst at stopping the running game last year.  I think the Chiefs get the ball to Charles at least 30 times in this game (in one way or another), and he'll find the endzone at least once.  No one is deciding on starting Charles over AP anyway, and if you are, then good luck in your 4-team fantasy football league this season.  I'm sure it'll be fun. Get ready to see this at least once on Sunday... You'll notice Arian Foster isn't even in the top-10 this week, and that could change if I get an updated rankings done later in the week.  I'm just worried about a guy who has missed the entire preseason, and I think the Texans will probably split a little more of the workload with Ben Tate, at least for a week or two.  Someone who is up where Foster usually is ranked is Stevan Ridley.  I'm playing against him in my money league, and I hate it because he has an amazing matchup.  I like any and all Patriot offensive players this week, but Ridley might end up with the biggest game.  The Bills were even worse than Jacksonville against the run last season, and they gave up the most rushing TDs in the league.  Meanwhile, Ridley was tied for 3rd in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns.  It's the perfect storm for a big fantasy day for the Patriot running back.  I like Vereen to get some touches too, but I'm not sure how they're going to use him just yet.   WRs

1.Calvin Johnson 2.Dez Bryant 3.Demaryius Thomas 4.AJ Green 5.Brandon Marshall 6.Julio Jones 7.Danny Amendola 8.Andre Johnson 9.Pierre Garcon 10.Roddy White  11.Larry Fitzgerald 12.Marques Colston 13.Victor Cruz 14.Randall Cobb 15.Torrey Smith 16.Reggie Wayne 17.Dwayne Bowe 18.Cecil Shorts 19.Antonio Brown 20.Vincent Jackson 21.DeSean Jackson 22.Hakeem Nicks 23.Wes Welker 24.Steve Smith 25.Eric Decker 26.Jordy Nelson 27.Miles Austin 28.T.Y. Hilton 29.Mike Wallace 30.Anquan Boldin 31.James Jones 32.Kenbrell Thompkins 33.Sidney Rice 34.Greg Jennings 35.Steve Johnson 36.Lance Moore 37.Mike Williams 38.Chris Givens 39.Vincent Brown 40.Golden Tate  Going boring again with Megatron at #1, but there are some interesting people on the board here in Week 1.  Danny Amendola finds himself as an instant top-10 (hype machine pick) for the opening game against the Bills.  Likewise, I have his teammate Kenbrell Thompkins on the board, although much more conservatively in the 30s.  Torrey Smith and Cecil Shorts, my two starting wideouts, crack my top-20 (though I don't see them as being top-10 guys just yet).  Sidney Rice is another guy I drafted, and I actually have him higher than his teammate Golden Tate.  This will most likely differ from the experts, but I think if he's healthy, he's in for a much bigger year than Tate.  I guess time will tell if I'm right on that one or not... I have all three Bronco receivers in my top-25, which isn't likely to be accurate.  At some point in the season, I feel like Decker and Welker are going to separate from each other one way or another (at least with respect to fantasy numbers).  For now, I'll rank them where they are.  I think Demaryius has the best chance at a big night on Thursday though (obviously).  Speaking of top tier WRs, Vincent Jackson is a guy who I have pretty low in my rankings to start the season.  The Jets were great against the pass last year, and I don't see why that would change in 2013.  Yes, they lost Revis, but he wasn't exactly a factor last season due to injury.  Maybe he'll surprise me, but if I had other options in the top-20, I'm starting them over Jackson this week. TEs

1.Jimmy Graham

2.Jason Witten 3.Tony Gonzalez  4.Zach Sudfeld 5.Vernon Davis 6.Greg Olsen 7.Jermichael Finley 8.Owen Daniels 9.Kyle Rudolph 10.Brandon Pettigrew 11.Jared Cook 12.Jordan Cameron If you think I'm ranking Antonio Gates in Week 1, you've got another thing coming.  That guy gave me headaches last year, and I'm going to make him prove himself in 2013 before he makes the list.  The first three tight ends on the list are no brainers, but Zach Sudfeld at #4 might be a little surprising.  Gronkowski most likely won't be in action for a couple of weeks, and Brady will need someone to throw to until he's back.  I like him to toss 3 or 4 TDs against the Bills, and I think Sudfeld will be the recipient of one of them. I like Brandon Pettigrew, undrafted in my money league, to get 10+ targets in Week One (with a resulting 80 yards and most likely no touchdown).

DEF 1.Texans

2.Patriots 3.Seahawks 4.Rams 5.Buccaneers 6.Bears 7.Bengals 8.Colts 9.Steelers 10.49ers 11.Browns

12.Broncos Picking defense from week to week can be somewhat of a crapshoot, especially at the beginning of the season.  One could argue to play it safe with the strong defenses (i.e. Seahawks or 49ers), but a case could be made for just playing the matchups too.  I tried to give a little mix of both for Week One.  The Texans have been a strong defense year in and year out lately, and they open up against a Chargers team that often struggles to start the season.  Their offensive line can be suspect, which doesn't bode well with JJ Watt on the other side of the ball.  It is an away game for Houston, but I still like their defense to shine on Monday Night Football. The Patriots and Bucs are pretty high on my list this week, and a lot of that is matchup based.  While both will also be on the road, both will be going up against rookie QBs making their first NFL starts.  The Patriots tend to manhandle the Bills in general, and Darrelle Revis will be going back to New York to play against his former team.  He didn't play a snap in the preseason, but it sounds like he'll be ready to go against whatever horrible QB the Jets put out there. The only team not in my Top-12 this week that will probably be in most expert lists is the Cardinals.  They have been a decent team defense in recent years, but I worry a little about them against the Rams in Week 1.  Granted, I think this game could very well be low scoring (which typically means solid points for both defenses), but I still have Arizona just outside of my rankings this week...though I do like the Rams in that game (I'll predict a 20-10 victory for St. Louis). That's it for the rankings this week.  Good luck in Week One! Cheers, Bart