Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Week 2 Rankings

Last week, I wrote a little bit about fantasy versus reality.  Basically, if you find yourself rooting for your fantasy players over your actual team, then you're not a real fan.  Of course, I found myself in this exact situation on Monday night, as I needed a big game from LeSean McCoy to overcome a 20+ point fantasy deficit in my money league.  I didn't actually want to see that happen against Washington, but that's exactly what did happen.  As the ugly first half unfolded, it was clear that Chip Kelly's offense was taking its toll on my Redskins.  Everyone seemed to be getting in on the action, including McCoy.  When he broke that long TD run, I found myself still down by a point or so.  

At that point, I definitely had mixed emotions.  

It was still early in the game, so I could root for a few more yards from McCoy, right?  Ugh.  I could at least root for him not to get hurt...?  It was terrible.  The game was going to unfold however it would unfold, whether or not I was rooting for McCoy to not fumble or for my Skins to light him up in the backfield.  I must admit, with my team seemingly out of the game at that point, I might've been ever-so-slightly rooting for just a couple more points from LeSean...


Thanks for the fantasy win, LeSean...I guess :(
It's crazy what fantasy football can do to a man.  I don't want to be hypocritical, so I tell you this story to give you an insight to my moment of weakness.  But it was pretty small.  I rooted for my Skins to the bitter end, and I still kept hope all the way until the Eagles recovered that onside kick.  And no, I didn't cry.  Well, maybe during that Guinness commercial, just a little.  But not over a football game.  The moral of the story is this: root for your actual team, not your fantasy team.  Oh, and stay in school.

With Week 1 in the books, it's on to my Week 2 rankings.  I'll give you a little recap of a few key points from last week by position, along with who I like for the upcoming games.  Also, my wife started her own blog this week...so check that out!

QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Peyton Manning
3.Drew Brees
4.Matt Ryan
5.Michael Vick
6.Cam Newton
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Tom Brady
9.Andrew Luck
10.RGIII
11.Eli Manning
12.Colin Kaepernick
13.Tony Romo
14.Terrelle Pryor
15.Russell Wilson
16.Josh Freeman
17.Matt Schaub  
18.Joe Flacco 
19.Sam Bradford
20.Carson Palmer      


Andrew Luck was in my top-5 in Week 1, and I was more or less hanging my hat on him in my rankings (I had him ranked higher than most, namely Matt Ryan).  And while he finished around 7th in standard scoring leagues, he did finish better than Matt Ryan (among many others).  I'll count that as a win.  Jay Cutler didn't make my list last week, but a late-game TD pass to Brandon Marshall made his numbers a little more respectable on Sunday.  He still barely cracked the top-20 for Week 1, and I don't see him as a high upside starter in fantasy.  He remains off my list for Week 2.

Most people, including myself, had Tony Romo ranked well above Eli last week.  These are my 2 QBs in my fun league, and I'm going to have to make this tough decision on a weekly basis.  Ultimately it didn't really matter for me, but I started Romo...and it was Eli who had the huge game.  Romo got the last laugh with the actual win, but Eli helped his fantasy owners more.  This week, I have Eli ranked ahead of Romo.  Tony got banged up a little in Week 1 (so did Dez Bryant), and Kansas City is never an easy place to play.  Romo's still startable in most leagues, but I think Eli will have the better game for the second week in a row.

EJ Manuel, Terrelle Pryor, and Geno Smith all had better fantasy days than Cam Newton.  We all saw that coming, right?  Well, maybe we should've.  That Seahawks defense is legit, and they're hosting the 49ers at home this week.  That definitely has me moving Kaepernick down in the rankings a bit, even though he torched the Packers in Week 1...and even though he'll be rekindling his Madden rivalry with Russell Wilson in that game (love those commercials).  Look at his numbers at Seattle at the end of the regular season last year...not great.  As for Cam, I think he will bounce back against Buffalo this week, and I'll need him to do just that for my fantasy team.

Speaking of this week, let's look a little closer at the rankings.  After that amazing Thursday night performance, it's hard not to rank Peyton at the top spot.  Give him a little extra time to scheme against his little brother?  Hell, he might throw 8 TDs against the G-Men!  Not so fast.  Michael Vick looked really good against my Redskins, and I suspect Aaron Rodgers will look even better.  Like the Redskins, the Packers don't want to start the season 0-2.  I think Rodgers will feel more urgency than Peyton this week (and he's going up against a weaker secondary), so Aaron gets my top spot.  As for Vick, I think he'll keep it rolling at home against the Chargers.  I actually have him inside my top-5 this week, ahead of the likes of Tom Brady and others.  Sometimes you just have to roll with the hot hand.  If you have Vick on your bench behind a "top tier" fantasy QB, it'll be hard to start him ahead of that guy this week.  But I say go for it!

Another surprising name high on my list is Terrelle Pryor.  He didn't look great in the passing game against the Colts, but he got over 100 yards with his legs.  He now gets the Jags in Oakland's home opener, and I think he'll make the most of it.  Another high risk/high reward type play, but if you have the guts to do it, this isn't a bad week to pull the trigger.  A few big names not on the list this week: Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger.  Rivers put up good numbers at home against the Texans, and maybe he'll do it again in Philly.  But after owning him last year, I just can't trust him week to week.  I also think the Pittsburgh/Cincy Monday nighter will be a low scoring affair.  I think Dalton will have the better game of the two QBs, but I wouldn't be too excited about starting either this week.

RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
2.Doug Martin
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Jamaal Charles
5.Matt Forte
6.Steven Jackson
7.Arian Foster
8.Ray Rice
9.CJ Spiller
10.Alfred Morris
11.Trent Richardson 
12.Reggie Bush
13.Maurice Jones-Drew
14.Darren McFadden
15.Marshawn Lynch
16.Stevan Ridley
17.Eddie Lacy
18.DeMarco Murray
19.Chris Johnson
20.Darren Sproles
21.Frank Gore
22.DeAngelo Williams
23.Lamar Miller
24.Rashard Mendenhall
25.Ryan Mathews
26.Daryl Richardson
27.Knowshon Moreno
28.Bilal Powell
29.David Wilson
30.Joique Bell
31.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
32.Bryce Brown
33.Vick Ballard
34.Jonathan Dwyer
35.Ben Tate
36.Daniel Thomas
37.Fred Jackson
38.Giovanni Bernard
39.Ahmad Bradshaw
40.Chris Ivory

It turns out Adrian Peterson did end up being the #1 RB in Week One, but Jamaal Charles also had a solid game against the Jags on Sunday. In a week that didn't see a ton of high scores from running backs, Charles was a top-5 play in standard formats.  One of the biggest surprises for me was Stevan Ridley.  An early fumble landed him on the bench, at it was Shane Vereen who ended up with a big game against the Bills.  Sadly, for both of my fantasy teams, it looks like Vereen will be sidelined until at least Week 11 after having wrist surgery following the game.  So look for Ridley to be a good bounce back candidate for Week 2.


Fumble...Fumblaya...Fumblerooski!
Speaking of guys getting benched for fumbling, it was deja vu all over again for David Wilson against the Cowboys in Week 1.  The Giants waited until his second fumble (which resulted in a Cowboy defensive TD) before putting Wilson on the sideline for the rest of the game.  Da'Rel Scott got some work in after that but didn't do much.  Meanwhile, the Giants re-signed Brandon Jacobs this week.  I'm still ranking Wilson, assuming he'll be the starter but will split time with Jacobs (and maybe Scott).  Isaac Redman fumbled a couple of times Sunday too.  Stephens-Howling came in, but he tore his ACL.  So the Steelers signed Jonathan Dwyer, who they just cut the week before.  I actually think he'll start this week, and if so, I like him to make the most of a weird situation.  I didn't go crazy ranking him, but he might be a Flex option for you.

I'm not giving up on Lamar Miller just yet.  I think the Browns defense might actually be pretty good, but this week Miller gets to run against the Colts.  Indy was a bottom-5 defense against the run last season, and they gave up a ton of yards to the Raiders in their opener this season (though most of those were to Terrelle Pryor).  I like Lamar Miller to produce a little more this week, and I think Daniel Thomas is a borderline Flex player as well.  Speaking of Flex, I'm also ranking Bryce Brown this week.  He didn't look great against the Redskins, but the Eagles offense did in general.  McCoy needed breaks with that uptempo style, and Brown will get plenty of touches.  I like him to get 50+ all-purpose yards and a TD this week in Philly's home opener.

Montee Ball is a guy I'd wait another week on.  Knowshon looks to be the clear-cut starter in Denver for now, and it's difficult to see how that RBBC will sort out just yet.  Yes, it's very possible that Ball will get a goal line carry against the Giants, but it's also possible that the other backs will get it too.  I don't own him in either of my leagues, but if I did, I'm not starting him...not yet.

WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.Demaryius Thomas
3.AJ Green
4.Brandon Marshall
5.Larry Fitzgerald
6.Julio Jones
7.Randall Cobb
8.Victor Cruz
9.Vincent Jackson
10.Andre Johnson
11.Wes Welker
12.Jordy Nelson
13.Reggie Wayne
14.Marques Colston
15.DeSean Jackson
16.Steve Smith
17.Pierre Garcon
18.Hakeem Nicks
19.Cecil Shorts
20.Julian Edelman
21.Torrey Smith
22.Anquan Boldin
23.Dez Bryant
24.Dwayne Bowe
25.Antonio Brown
26.Miles Austin
27.Mike Williams
28.Eric Decker
29.Kenbrell Thompkins
30.Steve Johnson
31.Roddy White 
32.T.Y. Hilton
33.Mike Wallace
34.James Jones
35.Denarius Moore
36.Lance Moore
37.Michael Floyd
38.Tavon Austin
39.Vincent Brown
40.Leonard Hankerson

Calvin Johnson had a couple of near touchdowns, but without those he had a very pedestrian day.  The storyline in Detroit was the running backs and not the receivers.  I'm going to double down and keep Megatron at the top spot for Week 2 though.  For New England, it was Julian Edelman who had the big day against the bills, not Danny Amendola (although he had a solid day)...and not rookie Kenbrell Thompkins (who couldn't capitalize on his 14 targets).  The Patriots have a short week, as they play the Jets tomorrow night, and early indications are that Amendola may sit out with a groin injury.  This has me ranking Edelman and Thompkins much higher than I had originally planned.  Brady won't have many other options, and I might actually be going with Thompkins myself at the Flex position.  He should still get plenty of targets this week.  Hopefully this time he can make the most of them.

I was wrong about Vincent Jackson in Week 1.  He and Mike Williams both posted great fantasy numbers against the tough Jets' secondary.  Former dynamic duo Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both had huge days, though with different QBs/teams.  I look for Fitz to have another big day this week in the Cardinal home opener, but I'm not as sure about Boldin.  I'm moving him up, but I find it hard to be too high on him against that Seahawk defense.  I have Aaron Rodgers as my #1 fantasy QB for Week 2, so I have his WRs pretty high as well.  I already had Cobb ranked pretty highly in Week 1, but I clearly wasn't high enough on Jordy.  He gets a big bump this week.

A couple of guys I'd be worried about this week are Dez Bryant and Roddy White.  Both are top WRs, but both are dealing with injuries.  Roddy's is a high ankle sprain, and although I'm sure he'll play, he's a risky start.  Dez had an MRI which revealed a mild foot sprain.  Take that for what you will, but I'd say he won't practice all week and then could be limited against Kansas City.  He's another risky start on Sunday.  Two other guys who I'm not ranking this week: Sidney Rice and Golden Tate.  Neither did much against the Panthers in Week 1, and I just don't feel confident in starting any Seahawk WR just yet.

GIF via Yahoo! SportsCecil Shorts stays in my top-20 this week.  Chad Henne will be tossing him the ball against Oakland, and that should give him a big upgrade for Week 2.  Another guy on my squad who I have in the rankings is Michael Floyd.  I like Fitzgerald a lot this week against Detroit, but Floyd and Roberts will get plenty of looks too.  I think Floyd's athleticism will ultimately get him more targets, and we'll see if he can make some more crazy catches this week.

TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Jason Witten
3.Tony Gonzalez 
4.Jared Cook
5.Vernon Davis
6.Jordan Cameron
7.Julius Thomas
8.Jermichael Finley
9.Greg Olsen
10.Owen Daniels
11.Martellus Bennett
12.Zach Sudfeld

The Honey Badger, saving me in Week 1
In my money league, I played against the top fantasy tight end in Week One, and it wasn't Jimmy Graham.  It was Jared Cook, who had 141 yards and 2 TDs...and he would've had a 3rd touchdown if Mathieu hadn't chased him down on one of them.  I have to move him up in my rankings, as he seems to be Bradford's favorite target.  I have a hard time changing the big 3 at the top though, and I'm not even going to shuffle the order up there. 

I know I already mentioned Julius Thomas in my Friday rankings update, but he finds himself on this list now.  I also wanted to mention the other guys who hauled in 2 TDs, Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels.  In fact, it was a pretty big week for tight ends in fantasy.  If you look at my Week One top-12, only Zach Sudfeld and Brandon Pettigrew really had awful days...and Olsen and Rudolph were the only other two not to get a touchdown.  Looking at a standard scoring league, there were 12 tight ends who got double-digit fantasy points last week.  Not bad for the big fellas.

This week I'm not changing things up too much.  I'll lower Sudfeld a bit, but if Amendola is out (in addition to Vereen), Brady is going to have to find some other targets.  I think he'll be forced to find Sudfeld, and I'm leaving him in my top-12, despite the goose egg in Week One.  Of course he's dealing with an injury of his own, so pay attention to that before kickoff tomrorow night.  If he doesn't play, I'll probably put Myers or Gates in there at 12 in my Friday update.  In addition to Cook, Jordan Cameron is another riser on the TE list.  He was a big target for Weeden (literally), and should continue to be moving forward.  With Josh Gordon suspended for another week, I'm sure the Browns will stick with a lot of checkdowns to their tight end.


DEF
1.Bears
2.Texans
3.Bengals
4.Patriots
5.Ravens
6.Seahawks
7.Cardinals
8.49ers
9.Broncos
10.Steelers
11.Cowboys
12.Panthers

You realize these guys don't play for Oakland's D, right?
Well, I added Kansas City in my Friday update, and they were THE top defense in Week One.  I think the lesson learned there is to start a defense against Blaine Gabbert.  One might think the Raiders make a decent matchup play this week against the Jags, but I think Chad Henne will have Jacksonville's offense moving a little better than Gabbert did in Week 1.  I'd be a little concerned with keeping that trend going with a different QB at the helm, and I won't be ranking Oakland in my top-12 in Week 2.  As for the other defenses around the league, there was plenty of scoring to go around to start the season.  Many offenses looked rusty, and defenses prevailed.  In my money league, over 20 teams had double-digit fantasy points.  Of course, the Bengals weren't one of them.  In fact, neither were the Patriots or 49ers!  Oh well.  I'm still ranking both of them again this week.


I've already mentioned New England about 10 times in this article, but they're in a short week, and they're playing Geno Smith and the Jets.  The Patriot D should benefit from some rookie mistakes, and if Sanchez somehow gets into the game, then maybe we'll get to see Butt Fumble: The Return.  Personally, I'm sticking with Cincy's D (I drafted them...need to at least give them a chance).  They get the Steelers on Monday Night Football, and the Titans ruled Big Ben and company in Week 1.  Part of that was certainly due to pro-bowl center Maurkice Pouncey tearing up all of his knee ligaments on the opening drive of the game.  Without him, that Steeler front line is even more susceptible to letting defenses get to Roethlisberger.  I think the Bengals will do just that in prime time.  Sticking with the winless AFC North, I also like the Ravens to regroup for their home opener against the Browns.  Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning, and I think if they can stop TRich, Baltimore will hold Cleveland to 13 points or less and get some turnovers.

That's it for Week 2 (for now).  I'll get an update done later this week after the Jets/Patriots game!

Cheers,
Bart

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