2020 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

Remember in 2017 when Hurricane Irma gave the Dolphins and Bucs each a Week 1 bye?  That was a weird way to start the season but nothing compared to the scheduling issues COVID could cause this year.  As of right now, the Steelers/Titans and Vikings/Texans games will go on as planned, but stay tuned.  If more positive cases pop up and postponing the game until Monday or Tuesday isn't even an option, these teams could all end up just having an early Week 4 bye.  I hope the games go on as planned and everything is fine, but I'm skeptical.  We saw what happened with teams like the Marlins and Cardinals in baseball just a couple of months ago.  It worked out OK I guess, but you can't exactly play a football double header, can you?  I'm interested to see how this all unfolds, and I just hope we can make it through this season.  And if it means the NFL adds another week or two at the end of the regular season (extra bye week for everyone?), so be it.  I'd be perfectly fine with the Super Bowl being played on President's Day weekend.  In fact, can we just do that, NFL?  If you won't change it to Super Bowl Saturday, at least give me an easy Monday to take off work after the big game!

Anyway, that went off the rails a bit.  I know why you're here, and it's the rankings.  Let's get to it!

Cheers,
Bart

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QBs

I liked for Brady to bounce back in Week 3, and he finished as a top-10 play.  I also kept Gardner Minshew in my top-12, and he disappointed big time against the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.  I was low on Drew Brees versus the ECR, and that turned out to be wrong.  Alvin Kamara's long touchdown reception (most of which was just him running down the field) certainly helped, and Kamara actually had two receiving TDs on the night.  That's not going to happen every week, and I'll still have Brees relatively low until Michael Thomas is back in the lineup.  That could happen as soon as this week (which I'm projecting), so Brees is certainly in starter territory against the Lions.

Another guy I view as a starter this week is Jared Goff against the Giants.  I have him as a top-12 play and about 5 spots higher than the ECR.  In that same game, I'm staying down on Daniel Jones who has looked terrible to start the season (albeit against very tough opponents).  Better fantasy days are ahead for Jones, but I'm not sure that starts until Week 5...

RBs

I talked up James Robinson in this spot last week, and he had a great game against the Dolphins.  I love his workload and will continue to plug him into my lineup until something changes.  I was way down on Nyheim Hines, who the ECR had near the top-30.  I barely had him in my top-50, but the ECR was right.  He bounced back and was more involved in the blowout win against the Jets (definitely more involved than I thought he'd be).  This week I'm assuming Chris Carson is out, so I have Carlos Hyde as a top-20 RB.  Right now the ECR has him as the RB33, which is way too low in a game in Miami in which he'll almost certainly find the endzone.  I'm a little bit down versus the ECR on Devin Singletary, who basically had the backfield to himself last week with Zack Moss out with a toe injury.  Well, Moss is back at practice and a top-40 RB for me this week.  That has me lowering Singletary outside of my top-20.

WRs

A few guys I liked 10 or so spots higher than the ECR last week: Julian Edelman, DeVante Parker, Russell Gage, and N'Keal Harry.  I'm not sure any of those were right, and my Week 3 accuracy ranking above 100 reflects it too.  I was relatively down on both Cleveland receivers & Michael Gallup.  Of course Gallup had a big game, but Landy and OBJ were bad.  The Browns won the game and ran all over Washington, and that meant Baker Mayfield had exactly 23 pass attempts for the second week in a row.  It's possible this week could be different against Dallas though.  I fully expect the Cowboys to put up points and potentially be leading much of this game.  If that's the case, Baker will have to throw more and the receivers could be a little more involved.

A guy I really like this week and who is in my top-20 is DeVante Parker.  I'll be playing him in DFS, as he's facing a Seattle team that is giving up so many fantasy points to WRs...like WAY more than any other team.  I think Fitzpatrick will put up some numbers in this one and could have a Jameis Winston type of game: 350 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost...oh and a loss.  But give me all of the DeVante Parker in Week 4.

After three weeks, the tight end position is starting to become slightly more clear, and I'm not really high/low versus the ECR on too many guys.  The same pretty much goes for defenses, so if you're looking for a streamer for either, just check my rankings!  I have had bad luck with tight ends in my main league for the second year in a row.  Last year it was Hunter Henry and Will Dissly.  This year it's been Blake Jarwin and Dallas Goedert (and to a lesser extent Jared Cook, who I assume could miss some time with this groin injury).  This week I'm rolling out Dalton Schultz in that league, and I'm hoping he can be this year's Dissly for me...at least for a few weeks please!

If you're interested in my betting picks for Week 4, here they are:

2020 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

I want to start this week's rankings by talking about my betting picks.  If you don't care about those, feel free to skip down to my fantasy position rankings.  If you do care about those, I'd like to point out that I was 4-1 ATS, 5-2 over/under, and 4-2 on the moneyline in Week 1.  But all of that positivity was negated in Week 2 when I went 4-6 ATS, 2-6-1 over/under, and 3-3 on the moneyline.  I think I fell into the trap of picking too many games, but I also flat out got some things wrong that I felt like were sure things (like the Chiefs and Saints for instance).  

I'll try to be better about being selective this week, and we'll see how it goes.  If you want to get to those picks, head straight to the bottom.  Otherwise, let's start by getting into the Week 3 rankings, shall we?

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

I stayed high on Gardner Minshew last week, and I kind of liked Joe Burrow to show up on Thursday Night Football.  I had both guys as top-15 fantasy QBs in Week 2, and both finished in the top-12!  One guy I thought could finish outside of the top-15 again was Tom Brady, but the ECR had him as a top-12 fantasy QB.  His receivers let him down and had some bad drops, but that left him with a rough stat line and one of the worst starting fantasy QBs in Week 2.

I like for Brady to bounce back this week, but I'm not ready to get him back into my top-12 just yet.  Minshew is staying in my top-12 though, and Tannehill is in there for me too.  I'm currently 5 spots higher on him versus the ECR, and I'm 5 spots lower on Drew Brees.  I'm not ready to trust him against the Packers without Michael Thomas and after he didn't do much in the first two weeks.  There are just more interesting options than Brees right now.

RBs

While most people are talking about rookies like CEH and Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson isn't getting much love.  I get it.  He was undrafted, from a small school, and he plays for the Jags.  But I was a little high on him last week, and he had a great game against the Titans.  He plays tomorrow night against the Dolphins, and he cracks my top-20 RBs.  I love going with the workload with running backs, and the Jags are actually a favorite in this matchup.  I'm going to roll with him until something changes in this backfield, and it could just look like this all season!  I also have Myles Gaskin as a top-30 RB in tomorrow night's game.  He has had the most touches in Miami's backfield, and it's not even close.  You could do worse with a FLEX option, and I have Gaskin 10 spots higher than the ECR.

I'm way down on Nyheim Hines, who the ECR has near the top-30.  I currently have him all the way down at RB47 because I think Week 2 was more of the game plan moving forward. Hines was involved in Week 1 when Marlon Mack was healthy for part of the game and the Colts trailed the Jags.  Then in Week 2, it was all Jonathan Taylor as Indy easily handled the Vikings.  As double digit favorites against the Jets this week, it'll be more Taylor, and I'm afraid Hines could end up with only a handful of touches.

WRs

I was completely wrong about Anthony Miller as a top-30 WR last week.  I don't know what happened to guys like him and Will Fuller, but some dudes just disappeared in Week 2 (and not due to injury!).  Fuller isn't on the injury report this week, so I still have him as a top-20 WR, but I don't feel great about it!  A few guys I like 10 or so spots higher than the ECR: Julian Edelman, DeVante Parker, Russell Gage, and N'Keal Harry.  I'm relatively down on both Browns receivers & Michael Gallup.  In fact, I think we may have already seen CeeDee Lamb overtake Gallup, but it's still too early to tell.

TEs

I was also dead wrong being down on Mike Gesicki against the Bills.  That Buffalo defense hadn't allowed many fantasy points to the tight end position in a long time, but Gesicki balled out.  Darren Waller also went off on Monday night, and he's a locked in top-5 tight end rest of season.  Speaking of ROS rankings, I've been working on those and will post them starting maybe next week.  So stay tuned. 

Like I said last week, I'm not going to really talk much about defenses moving forward.  If you want to find a streamer, just take a look at my top-12 or so defenses in any given week.

Here are my betting picks for Week 3, which will change as we get closer to Sunday:

2020 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

Last week I got my rankings out a day early, but now we're back to Wednesday for my Week 2 rankings.  This is a fun week too because I finally have some actual games to based these rankings on.  Especially this year with no preseason, I feel much better this week at least having some information to back these rankings other than depth charts, offseason chatter, etc.  As always, I'll have comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings). 

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks at the very bottom.  I did pretty well with those in Week 1, but I was also able to lock in some early lines about a month ago.  So this week will be more of a true test.

I was 4-1 ATS, 5-2 over/under, and 4-2 on the moneyline.  With the units I "bet", I ended up with positive numbers in each category, so I feel good about that start. 

Let's get right into the rankings, and if you only care about my picks versus the spread, over/under, etc. then you can skip to the bottom!

Cheers,

Bart

 

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QBs

My biggest gap last week when I posted my rankings on Tuesday was that I was 4 spots higher on Trubisky versus the other experts.  He was pretty terrible through three quarters, but he salvaged his day and beat the Lions in Week 1.  He actually ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB, but I wouldn't get too excited.  I feel like he has a short leash, and Nick Foles could close out this week's matchup against the Giants if for some reason the Bears get behind and the game somehow is out of hand in the third quarter. I was also slightly down on Aaron Rodgers versus the ECR last week, but he also ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB.  So I was right about Trubisky but way off on Rodgers.  Was the Viking defense the reason Aaron looked like an MVP or is he "back"?  Week 2 might tell the real story, but I'm hesitantly buying into Rodgers.  We shall see...

This week, I'm staying high on Gardner Minshew (+8 vs ECR), and I kind of like Joe Burrow to show up on Thursday Night Football.  Minshew should continue to air it out, and I think he'll also have a low floor with some of those rushing yards.  Burrow is in the same boat, but he actually has way more talent (and weapons).  I like both guys as top-15 fantasy QBs in Week 2.  One guy I think could finish outside of the top-15 again is Tom Brady.  Chris Godwin is in the concussion protocol, and Brady just didn't look great last week against the Saints.  I wouldn't trust him like a top-12 fantasy QB in Week 2 like a lot of experts are doing.

RBs

Outside of CEH and Jonathan Taylor, I was really low on other rookie RBs in Week 1.  For the most part, I just need to see it before I trust a guy.  I didn't think guys like Cam Akers or J.K. Dobbins would have roles right away.  I was wrong on Dobbins...sort of.  He scored twice, so that made a huge difference.  We'll see what happens in Week 2 if the game script is different.  As for Akers, he's probably going to take some time to win the starting gig because Malcolm Brown looked pretty good in Week 1 (for the second year in a row).  Swift was the second guy in a committee and dropped a key touchdown that could've won the game in the fourth quarter, and Moss didn't get a ton of touches but a lot near the goal line.  Clyde and Taylor are ready to roll, but some of these other rookies might take a couple of weeks to get going.  

Speaking of rookies though, I'm actually a little high on James Robinson this week (+7 vs ECR).  If Conner can't go, I'll be starting the rookie in one league, and I don't feel bad about that.  He got a great workload in Week 1, and Jay Gruden has shown faith in undrafted rookies before (Fat Rob Kelley anyone?).  On volume alone, I feel like Robinson will get double digit fantasy points in Week 2.  One guy I'm not crazy abou thtis week is Melvin Gordon.  The ECR currently has him as a top-20 RB, but with the Steelers shutting down Saquon in Week 1, forgive me for not wanting to believe Gordon can do much against them in Week 2.

WRs

You know who I liked a lot last week?  Greg Ward.  I had him in my top-50 WRs, which was nearly 50 spots higher than ECR as of Wednesday.  The guy got 7 targets, but he only converted them into 5 catches for 31 yards.  You could've done a lot worse in PPR leagues, and I'll continue to rank him close to my top-50.  A guy I didn't like much versus ECR was A.J. Brown.  I just thought this game would be low scoring and the Titans would hand it off a ton to Derrick Henry, which is exactly what happened.  A.J. finished with a similar stat line to that of Greg Ward, so I'd say I was pretty spot on there.

This week I like Anthony Miller as a top-30 WR (+11 vs ECR).  I could see him having a day like JuJu did against the G Men last week.  I'm way down on Odell Beckham, who could certainly prove me wrong tomorrow night.  But this feels like last year when it took everyone a while to realize that Landry was actually the #1 WR in this offense.  It's only one week in the books this season, but I'm going to wait and see on OBJ.

TEs

T.J. Hockenson was my guy in Week 1, and I said a healthy Hockenson could actually turn into George Kittle this season.  With Golladay out of the lineup, Hock had a big day and could do the same this week in Green Bay (I'm currently +4 vs ECR on him in Week 2).  I was down on Jared Cook last week, and I said he could be a "touchdown or bust" tight end all year.  Well, he proved me wrong in Week 1 by hauling in 5 catches for 80 yards.  Now with Michael Thomas set to miss a few weeks, I'll be ranking him as a top-10 TE because I expect him to be even more involved in this offense. 

This week I'm down on Mike Gesicki (-8 vs ECR) who is facing a tough Buffalo defense who doesn't allow many fantasy points to tight ends.  Gesicki could see extra targets if Parker is out of the lineup, but I'm not excited about starting him either way.

DEFs

I said the Dolphins would be an OK streamer and that their game in New England would end up something like 20-17 in what would be a defensive battle.  While the total points stayed low, the Dolphins didn't do a whole lot to stop Cam and company.  I was down on the Jets (-6 vs ECR), and I said the Bills would win this one 30-10.  It ended up 27-17, so I was way off...ha!  I'm probably going to stick to talking about QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs and just dismiss the defenses moving forward.  If you want to find a streamer, just take a look at my top-12 or so defenses in any given week.

As for my betting picks, here's what I'm rolling with here in Week 2:

Real Football Predictions: 2020 Edition

 

So I doubt many people care about my real football predictions for the 2020 season, but I do it every year, and I can't break tradition!  Last year I picked the Rams to win it all (yikes!), but I did have the Chiefs at least making it to the Super Bowl.  So I was close...ish.  There's an extra Wild Card team in each conference this year, so there are two more chances for me to be wrong!  But I'm going to try to nail all of these, right?   We'll see.  I just hope we have an entire NFL season complete with playoffs and a Super Bowl! Here's what I predict for 2020: AFC East: Buffalo Bills AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers  AFC South: Tennessee Titans AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs AFC Wild Card1: Baltimore Ravens AFC Wild Card2: New England Patriots AFC Wild Card3: Las Vegas Raiders [Chiefs over Bills in AFC Championship Game] NFC East: Dallas Cowboys NFC North: Minnesota Vikings NFC South: New Orleans Saints NFC West: Seattle Seahawks NFC Wild Card1: San Francisco 49ers NFC Wild Card2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC Wild Card3: LA Rams [Saints over Seahawks in NFC Championship Game] Super Bowl Prediction: Saints over Chiefs

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

I usually do my rankings on Wednesdays, but I'm a day early here to kickoff the season.  I'm excited, dammit!  Below are my Week 1 rankings, and I've made a few comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings).  It's only Tuesday, so this might change between now and Sunday.  But I at least wanted to put some early notes next to guys where I disagree on their ECR.

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks at the very bottom.  Sports betting is currently illegal in my state, so I'm not using my own advice on these picks.  But I'd like to point out that I was top-10 on BettingPros last year, so we'll see if I can do that again this season! 

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QBs

I'm not crazy high on anyone versus the ECR this week, but my biggest gap is that I'm currently 4 spots higher on Trubisky versus the other experts.  I still only have him as my QB24, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a top-12 QB this week.  The Lions don't have a good defense, and Mitch put up good fantasy numbers against them in both meetings last year.  The guy is also playing for his job with Nick Foles now breathing down his neck.  He could surprise in Week 1 and would be a cheap DFS option for sure.

I'm slightly down on Aaron Rodgers versus the ECR.  He's a top-12 consensus pick at Minnesota, but I have him at QB15 and might consider lowering him even more.  This offense is built to run the ball, and Rodgers averages very mediocre numbers when he plays on the road against the Vikings.  I could easily see him finishing with 200 yards and a touchdown and be very disappointing to start the season.

RBs

Remember when Malcolm Brown had a huge Week 1 last year?  And that was with Todd Gurley on the roster.  This game against Dallas has the largest point total outside of the Thursday night game, so touchdowns will be scored.  Brown is expected to be the starter, and I guarantee he'll be the goal line back.  I don't see McVay trusting a rookie like Cam Akers much in Week 1, and Henderson could be inactive due to injury.  I currently have Malcolm Brown as my RB31 which is more than 20 spots above ECR, and I'd rather start him as a FLEX over riskier options (like rookies).

Speaking of those rookies, a guy I don't really like this week is Cam Akers for the exact reasons I laid out above.  I also don't like D'Andre Swift (-15 vs ECR) & J.K. Dobbins (-21 vs ECR).  I just don't trust the rookies very much in Week 1.  I could be wrong, but I want to see it first.

WRs

You know who I like a lot this week?  Greg Ward.  That's right.  This dude has a boring name, and it's hurting his perception.  If his name was G Money Warden, he'd easily be considered a WR3.  The Eagles basically have him, DeSean Jackson, and their tight ends healthy for Week 1...against the Washington Football Team!  Ward was Wentz's guy in December when all of his other WRs were injured.  I have him in my top-50 WRs, which is nearly 50 spots higher than ECR!

A guy I don't like this week versus ECR is A.J. Brown.  He's one of my keepers in my main league, and I'm sure I'll start him but I don't see him as a locked in top-24 WR this week.  I feel like he's more of a WR3 against a Denver defense who could put A.J. Bouye on him a lot on Monday night.  Which A.J. will win out most often?  I hope Brown can make a play or two, but this should be a low scoring affair and could just end up being a ton of Derrick Henry, especially now that there will be a Von Miller sized hole in the middle of the field.

TEs

T.J. Hockenson had a great first game of his NFL career, and then he just kind of fizzled out the rest of the season.  But rookie tight ends rarely do much in their first seasons.  They can break out in Year 2 though, and I think a healthy Hockenson could actually turn into George Kittle.  He'll start this week at home against the Bears, who will certainly look to lock down Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.  That could leave some open looks for the TE position, and I think Hockenson has a good shot to end up as a top-12 play this week (I currently have him 7 spots higher than ECR).

A guy I'm down on this week is Jared Cook (-9 vs ECR).  I just don't see ranking him in the top-10 with Emmanuel Sanders now in New Orleans.  Cook should be a touchdown or bust tight end all year, and I think it'll start this week against Tampa Bay.

DEFs

The team I picked as my sleeper at the DST position this year is the Miami Dolphins.  I like what they did in free agency, and if the offense can stay on the field a bit more, that will help this defense stay fresh.  The Dolphins travel to Foxboro Sunday to face a new look Patriots team led by Cam Newton.  This game has a point total of 43, and New England is expected to win by a touchdown.  I think it'll be closer than that and could end up something like 20-17 in what will be a defensive battle.  I like the Patriots to win the game, but I also like the Dolphins to be a top-20 fantasy defense (I have them +8 vs ECR currently).

I'm down on the Jets (-6 vs ECR), and I can't figure out why so many experts have them ranked in their top-20.  Maybe it's because Josh Allen is prone to turn the ball over and Devin Singletary has had fumbling issues in camp.  This game's point total is even lower at 39.5, so that could be part of it as well.  But if it stays around that total, I think the Bills will win this one 30-10.  I don't see the Jets doing much to stop them, but we shall see!

Speaking of point totals and spreads...

I'm taking the OVER for Thursday night's game between the Chiefs and Texans, and I want to take Houston to cover +10 but I'm scared.  I have that locked in for now, and I have a bunch of other picks but I might narrow this down to fewer picks come Sunday.  So check back and see because I'll update this list as well as my rankings above leading up to kickoff of each game. 

Good luck to everyone in Week 1!

Cheers,

Bart

WHAT IF scenarios for all 32 teams

Over the last month or so, you've probably heard a ton of the same narratives if you're following people like me who write about fantasy football.  Maybe you catch a tidbit here and there that you haven't really heard yet, and that's what I'm going to try to focus on in this last preseason article.  I thought I was done writing this preseason, but I kept having these random thoughts pop into my head and it was way too much to tweet.

  

So here we are.  One more article before the season starts.  I'm going to give a "what if" scenario for each team that not many people are really talking about right now.  I'm not saying these things will all happen, but there's certainly a nonzero chance of them happening.  And I feel like for a lot of these, no one is really talking about them.  So here's some facetime for my random thoughts.  It's a long piece, so I've highlighted some text in BOLD for my "what if" take on each team.  I hope you enjoy!

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
If Josh Allen improves as a passer and continues to get a ton of rushing yards/TDs on the ground, his ceiling is a top-3 fantasy QB.  But that's not my focus here for the Bills.  Everyone expects them to be a run-first team with a low volume of plays, and that might be the case.  But if Allen is better, I think a big part of that could be because he now has Stefon Diggs to throw to.  John Brown had a solid 2019 season, and he could very well be solid again.  No one seems to want to draft Diggs, but this guy is a top-10 talent as far as wide receivers in the league.  The Bills traded their #22 overall pick in this year's draft to get Diggs (along with a couple more late rounders AND a 2021 4th rounder).  This dude is going to get the ball.  No one is talking up Diggs like he can be a WR1 this year, but he has that potential if Allen can get him the ball.

Miami Dolphins

What if DeVante Parker isn't the #1 WR on the Dolphins this season?  There are a few people talking up Preston Williams as a late round sleeper, but I doubt anyone has him all that close to Parker in their rankings.  If you actually look at what he did in his rookie season before tearing his ACL though, he had more targets than Parker.  In a small sample size of 8 games, Williams had 60 targets to Parker's 52 and the yards/TDs (and fantasy points!) were all super close.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that Preston Williams actually has a better fantasy season than DeVante Parker in 2020.

New England Patriots
What if Sony Michel isn't done playing football?  Everyone has been talking up Damien Harris as a sleeper (again!), and people are pointing to the Lamar Miller signing as an indication that Sony might be too banged up to carry any sort of load for this offense.  But with Harris now out for likely a couple of games after pinky surgery, Michel has an opportunity to establish himself in this offense with Cam out of the gates.  He hasn't shown a lot outside of that dominant 2018 playoff run, but that alone shows me he has the potential to dominate carries and be a big factor in this Patriot offense.  I would draft him in the middle rounds (and I HAVE!) with the idea he could be a top-20 RB this year.

New York Jets

I don't know what to say about the Jets.  Everyone hates Le'Veon Bell.  Chris Herndon is a sleeper for a lot of people.  I'm not sure if many people are excited to draft any Jet, but I'd be fine landing Jamison Crowder as my third or fourth WR.  Perriman's knee is swelling every time he practices.  Denzel Mims just got onto the practice field.  Herndon was having some chest issues the other day.  Their entire receiving corps feels banged up, but you don't hear much about Crowder.  This team is likely going to be bad (the defense might be especially terrible), so I expect Darnold to have to throw a lot.  I could see Jamison Crowder getting near 140 targets, catching 90 of them, and being a borderline top-12 WR in PPR formats.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

No matter what format you play in, Mark Ingram was an RB1 last year.  What if the Ravens just keep feeding him the rock?  He could absolutely be an RB1 again!  Ingram feels like the kind of player that people hold their nose and draft in the 4th round as their second running back after a big run on WR.  But people seem to love the idea that J.K. Dobbins is just going to take over his job by midseason.  I don't see it, and I can see a world in which Ingram finishes in the top-12 yet again, but no one is pushing this narrative in 2020.

Cincinnati Bengals

What if Joe Burrow isn't any good in the NFL?  Don't get me wrong.  I have him currently as my QB15, and I can envision a scenario in which he finishes in the top-10 like Kyler did last year.  But he's a rookie.  He didn't get any preseason games to play in.  He'll be taking his first snap in the NFL lined up against Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  In Week 2, he faces Myles Garrett and the Browns.  Week 3 should be easy though.  Oh wait.  He gets the Eagles, who have one of the best duos up front in Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.  If he's still alive by Week 4, he gets a break by facing the Jags.  But you get my point here.  A lot of top QB draft picks bust: JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith.  These were all top-3 picks who did virtually nothing in the NFL.  I could go further back and give more, but it's possible that Burrow isn't amazing from Day 1.  He might not even end up as a bust, but it's possible he doesn't have a rookie year like Kyler had last year.  He could have a rookie year more like Peyton Manning.  Hey, that guy still ended up pretty good, but he wasn't great as a rookie!  I just wanted to mention that it's actually possible that Joe Burrow struggles, and that could have an impact on the other Bengal position players too.

Cleveland Browns

What if Kareem Hunt is the #1 RB for the Browns this year?  They have a new coaching staff and a GM that didn't draft Chubb.  I'm not saying Chubb is washed or anything.  He's a great downfield runner.  But Dalvin Cook was a dynamic back in Stefanski's offense last year in Minnesota.  It's possible Kareem Hunt could fit that RB mold more than Chubb and ends up getting more work than the assumed workhorse in Cleveland.  I'd say this has a fairly small chance of happening, but with all of the new people calling the shots, you just never know.

Pittsburgh Steelers

What if Ben is never quite the same player again?  He had serious elbow surgery last year which repaired three different tendons.  According to experts (not me), no quarterback has had this exact type of surgery to repair this many tendons in a throwing elbow.  I know he's looking good in camp, but what if he only makes it through a few games and that elbow isn't right?  Remember how last year went with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB?  I feel like Pittsburgh could be in the same situation by October, and that would have a negative impact on JuJu and the rest of this offense.  It's possible James Conner could stay healthy and still have a productive season in this scenario, but this seems like a real possibility that no one wants to talk about.

AFC South

Houston Texans

What if Brandin Cooks gets another concussion and Will Fuller tears another hamstring, knee ligament, etc.?  Everyone has this rosy forecast for the Texans, and I get it.  I'm one of those people.  You want to believe that if Will Fuller can just stay healthy, he could be a top-10 WR with Hopkins gone.  But let's be real for a minute.  If these guys are both injured at some point during the season, Watson's top receiving options are going to be Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb.  In fact, if one of Cooks or Fuller goes down, Cobb probably becomes a top-20 WR.  That's a scenario that no one is talking about too.  But big picture, if these injury prone WRs go down, this Texans team could stink.

Indianapolis Colts

What if Jonathan Taylor gets 75-80% of the carries from Day 1?  Most of the rookie RB hype is around Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the Chiefs offense (and for good reason).  Sure, CEH was a first round pick (the LAST pick of the 1st round by the way), but Taylor was selected just a few picks later near the top of Round 2.  If you told me that Marlon Mack wasn't on the 53 man roster or if the Colts just flat out committed to Taylor right away, he'd be a first round fantasy pick for me.  Indy's offensive line is one of the best in the league, and it's a match made in heaven for Taylor.  In that "Day 1" scenario, I could see Jonathan Taylor finishing as a top-5 fantasy RB.

Jacksonville Jaguars
What if the Jags are actually good this year?  LOL.  Just kidding.  But seriously, they've been trading away key pieces on defense this offseason and just released their best running back in Fournette.  It's crazy.  Plenty of people have been talking about Gardner Minshew the last couple of months, and I believe he could end up in the QB1 conversation.  So I'll go off the radar here and say what if Jay Gruden brings in Adrian Peterson for a super low price tag?  Washington released AP today, but we've heard the guy still wants to play and chase rushing records.  I don't see why he couldn't do that in Jacksonville who doesn't seem all that interested in winning football games this year.  If that happens, I could see Peterson rushing for 1,054 yards at age 35.  And if that seems like a random number, it's not.  That's the amount of yards he needs to pass Barry Sanders for 4th on the all time rushing yards list.  I actually think he could hit that number if he can get 250 carries somewhere this season.  I'm not sure he could do that anywhere other than Jacksonville, so why not, right?

Tennessee Titans
What if Ryan Tannehill just keeps doing what he did as a starter in 2019?  This is seriously a narrative that I have seen ZERO of on Fantasy Twitter.  I'm sure there are plenty of Titans fans who believe in Tannehill, but not many outside of Nashville think he'll be more than a middling QB2.  Well, he has the same coaching staff, receiving options, and running back.  Why can't he continue to put up those numbers?  The guy had multiple touchdowns in every game he started last year.  He had 3+ total TDs in 5 of those 10 starts.  Tannehill is getting no love this year, as everyone expects him to regress.  What if he just doesn't...?

AFC West

Denver Broncos

What if Drew Lock isn't the answer at the QB position for the Broncos?  Don't get me wrong, I actually like the sleeper potential of Lock, especially because of the fantastic young receiving options Denver has accumulated for him.  But his 4-1 late season record last year looks a lot worse when you consider two of those wins were against the Lions and Raiders.  Lock had less than 200 passing yards and just one touchdown in each of those games.  He begins 2020 against the Titans, Steelers, and Bucs.  I could see the Broncos starting 0-3 and giving Jeff Driskel a shot against the Jets in Week 4.  When you look at the list of the offseason free agent QB signings, as of this writing there have been 22.  Driskel's is one of only 6 such contracts that are for multiple seasons.  Even guys like Jameis and Cam only got one year deals!  This tells me the Broncos have some doubt about Lock and may like Driskel to potentially be the guy later this year and potentially even next season depending on how things work out.

Kansas City Chiefs

For all of the great things I said about Jonathan Taylor, what if Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn't the guy everyone hopes he will be?  Of course the Chiefs should have one of the best offenses in the league, and even just getting a small part of that will have some fantasy value.  But what if CEH's value is just that: a small part?  It'll be interesting to see which RBs stay on the roster when final cuts are made tomorrow, but I actually think Darrel Williams could end up as a huge value this season.  I don't think he'll have more fantasy points than Clyde, but the rookie might not return that top-10 value that everyone is assuming he will.

Las Vegas Raiders

Is anyone talking about Derek Carr as a late round quarterback option?  If so, I haven't heard it.  As a reminder, Carr was the QB14 in 2015 (his second year in the league), and he was a top-10 fantasy QB in 2016.  Outside of that, he's been the QB 16-20 every other year of his career, so I get why you may just dismiss him (even as a late round option).  But do you remember who was on those Raider teams in 2015 & 2016?  Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree were on those squads.  Now I'm not saying his current receiving options are those guys, but they might be!  We literally don't know yet because a couple of them are rookies who haven't played a snap in the NFL yet.  This is certainly the most talent Carr has had at the receiver position since 2016.  Las Vegas took Henry Ruggs as the first receiver in the the draft this year, and then they selected Bryan Edwards in Round 3.  We could have some addition by subtraction going on with Tyrell Williams out for the season.  Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are solid options for Carr from last year.  This could all add up to Derek Carr finishing well ahead of his QB16-20 range that he's done most of his career.  He could get back near that top-10 territory if these rookies can contribute right away.

Los Angeles Chargers
What if the Chargers just decide to make Austin Ekeler their workhorse running back?  Behind him are Justin Jackson (currently injured and also "meh") and rookie Josh Kelley (unproven, obviously).  If you've been watching Hard Knocks, then you've seen how shredded Ekeler is and how high he flew over those pads during that goal line jumping drill.  This dude looks like a beast who could be the next LT for the Bolts.  OK.  So that might be a little too far.  I got excited after watching the Hard Knocks clips.  But reeling it back in for just this NFL season, I can envision a scenario in which Austin Ekeler ends up as a top-5 fantasy running back if given the workload.  He might just be that good.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Up until now, I've tried to stay away from "what if" scenarios related to injuries.  But this is the Cowboys, so a guy can dream, right?  That being said...what if Zeke gets hurt?  I think the answer would be that Tony Pollard becomes a top-5 fantasy RB.  This guy is super talented, behind a great offensive line, and one of the best backups in the league for fantasy purposes.  I wanted to highlight him here because he's a lottery ticket type player who you can take late in drafts.

New York Giants
What if the Eagles struggle with their offensive line and receiver injuries?  What if the Cowboys aren't great to start the Mike McCarthy era?  What if Washington continues to be bad?  Do the Giants have a shot to win the NFC East in a weird COVID year?  Sure, why not?  This is more of a real football take and less fantasy, but I've already talked up Daniel Jones as a potential top-12 fantasy QB this year.  If the defense can be better than people expect, the Giants could be a surprise division winner in 2020.

Philadelphia Eagles
What if none of Carson Wentz's receivers can stay healthy AGAIN?  I don't know about you, but I don't see him making Greg Ward a top-20 fantasy WR.  What I do see potentially happening is Dallas Goedert as a top-5 fantasy tight end.  That's right.  Top-5, baby!  Zach Ertz turns 30 this year and has missed a game or two in the majority of the seasons he's played in the NFL.  Ertz is certainly a lock for 110-130 targets, but Goedert could get into that range this year too.  If he continues improving like he did from Year 1 to Year 2, then Year 3 could land Goedert even above Ertz when this fantasy season is in the books.

Washington Redskins
What if Antonio Gibson isn't ready to be a running back in the NFL?  I know with Peterson getting cut, everyone rushed to Twitter to give their hot take on Gibson.  Well, this guy hasn't actually play much running back in his football career.  It's certainly possible that Washington gets him the ball 10-12 times a game, maybe more if he can figure out the RB position.  But it's also possible that he hasn't learned pass protection yet and guys like J.D. McKissic are miles ahead of him as far as being ready to play Week 1.  We're going to find out soon enough, but it's certainly possible that Gibson is a dynamic player who isn't actually the starting running back for Washington this year.  It actually could even be Bryce Love.


NFC North

Chicago Bears
What if Anthony Miller ends up as a better fantasy WR this year than Allen Robinson?  I don't even think this one would necessarily take an injury.  Miller had 7 touchdowns in his rookie year and then just 2 last season.  What will happen in 2020 with potentially a new QB in Nick Foles?  Who the heck knows?!  Well, we think we know Allen Robinson will be a target hog, and he should be.  But I could see Anthony Miller do more with fewer targets.  Both guys could be 1000 yard receivers, but I think Miller is the guy who is more likely to haul in 10 touchdowns.

Detroit Lions

What if T.J. Hockenson is healthy for all 16 games and is the next George Kittle?  The reports early in camp were that Hockenson's surgically repaired ankle still wasn't 100%.  That's slightly concerning considering his surgery was at the end of 2019.  But reports lately have been a little better, and it'll be interesting to see how he looks in Week 1.  I feel like there's a chance if he is 100% healthy, he could break out in a big way this year.

Green Bay Packers

What if Allen Lazard isn't the #2 receiving option in this offense?  This seems like a reasonable question to ask, but I feel like everyone has Lazard marked in INK for the #2 option for Aaron Rodgers.  Well, I think Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 50/50 (ish) shot to be a post-hype sleeper and be that guy (and not Lazard).  With Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham no longer in Green Bay, everyone expected the Packers to draft a WR.  They didn't.  It's either Lazard or MVS, and why not MVS, right?!?

Minnesota Vikings
What if Irv Smith, Jr. ends up as the best receiving option in this offense not named Adam Thielen?  He had nearly as many targets as Kyle Rudolph last year, and if he improves on that then he could end up as a very serviceable fantasy tight end (maybe even a TE1!).  The vacated targets of Diggs are still up for grabs, and they're not automatically going to Justin Jefferson or Olabisi Johnson.  Those guys will definitely get some, but Irv Smith could be a big part of this offense in 2020, and not a lot of people are talking him up.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
What happens if Hayden Hurst doesn't just step into the Austin Hooper role and thrive in Dirk Koetter's offense?  This is completely against everything I think will happen this year, but why not, right?  Hurst isn't a proven commodity, and injuries happen.  What if Hurst isn't great in Atlanta like everyone thinks he will be?  The depth chart behind him is super thin.  Would the Falcons sign a guy like Delanie Walker?  Has Delanie Walker even been staying in shape this offseason?  I don't have any idea, but that's my random "what if" for the Falcons.  Watch Delanie Walker be a top-12 tight end in this offense and Hayden Hurst not be...ha!

Carolina Panthers

What if Teddy Bridgewater continues to be the super efficient passer that he actually is and is really good in Carolina's new offense?  There is virtually zero buzz about Bridgewater this offseason, but the Panthers are likely another bad team who will need to throw the ball more to stay in games (or comeback from large deficits).  They added Robby Anderson to a good young receiving corps that includes a budding superstar in D.J. Moore and a good, fast route runner in Curtis Samuel.  Oh, and that McCaffrey guy tends to do good things when he catches the ball out of the backfield.  I'm a little surprised that hardly anyone even mentions Teddy in sleeper articles, but if he plays 16 games this year, he will absolutely be in the top-15 fantasy QB conversation.

New Orleans Saints
What if 41 year old Drew Brees deals with another hand or shoulder issue and misses a month this season?  Who would the Saints turn to: Jameis or Taysom?  Maybe a little of both?  I don't wish for any injuries, but I'm just saying "what if"?  I think it would be super interesting to see Jameis play against his old team in Week 9.  I bet he would light them UP!  I bet Taysom would somehow have a TD in that game too.  Then in Week 10, the 49ers come to New Orleans and pick off Winston 5 times.  Insert Taysom Hill and see what he can do Week 11 against the Falcons.  I would get so much popcorn ready if that happened...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What if Tom Brady doesn't throw to Chris Godwin 120 times?  I mean, he might throw to him 153 times like he did Edelman last year (and other years).  But he probably won't.  What if he throws to him like 100 times?  What if Mike Evans has like 10 TDs and Godwin only has 6 or 7?  I have Godwin as a keeper in my main/home league, and I was able to keep him for a 7th round pick this year (a 9th last year!).  So I won't complain if he returns even just decent value.  But I'm very worried about him as a "sure thing" top-12 fantasy WR this year.  In fact, I can envision a scenario in which he's just middle of the road and finishes around the WR25-30.  Tamps Bay has a lot of fantasy options this year, and Godwin is just one of those options.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

There's one Cardinal who I feel like isn't getting talked up at all this summer, and that's Christian Kirk.  This guy's ADP is outside of the top-100 and outside of the top-40 WRs, but the third year guy could be ready to break out.  I'm in the camp that thinks DeAndre Hopkins won't get anywhere close to the 150-175ish targets he was used to seeing in Houston.  I think it'll be more like 130, and I think Christian Kirk will still get over 100.  He could push for 900 receiving yards, and if he can find the endzone a couple more times, he'll be that 3rd year breakout that no one seems to be talking about. 

Los Angeles Rams

I've already talked about Darrell Henderson a bunch this offseason, but I feel like he's going even more under the radar since he's been dealing with an injury in camp.  He didn't do a ton in his rookie year, so everyone seems to assume Cam Akers will win the starting job and run with it, but like...what if he doesn't?  Henderson could easily be the RB for the Rams with the most fantasy value this season, but all you hear about is Akers.

San Francisco 49ers

How confident are we that Mostert is actually good?  And even if he is, how sure are we that Shanahan will give him the majority of touches in this backfield?  I'm not even convinced Tevin Coleman will be the second best RB in this San Francisco.  It could finally be Jerick McKinnon.  What if one (or two) of those guys isn't good or gets hurt (or Covid) and the Niners sign Devonta Freeman?  What if Devonta Freakin Freeman reunites with Shanahan and somehow ends up as the best 49er RB this year?!?

Seattle Seahawks 

What if Chris Carson gets hurt...again?  Rashaad Penny is likely going to start the season on the PUP list, which basically leaves Carlos Hyde to be the workhorse RB if Carson misses significant time.  He showed last year he could rush for 1000 yards in Houston, so he could absolutely do that in Seattle.  With an ADP outside of the top-200, he's a valuable backup that no one seems to be talking about.  Everyone wants to draft guys like Latavius Murray and Alexander Mattison in the later rounds, but what about Carlos?  The dude probably has a more clear path to carries even with Chris Carson healthy, and he could absolutely be an RB1 if Carson isn't available.

Like my other long article with all 32 teams earlier this summer, if you made it this far...congratulations!  I promise this is the last article before games kickoff in less than a week (!!!).

Cheers,
Bart