Sunday, August 31, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

I'll be giving up football for country music this Thursday.
If you saw my last pre-draft rankings, then you know that I'll be in the great state of Texas this week.  In fact, I won't even be watching the Thursday night game because my wife and I will be at a Brad Paisley concert (I know, right?).  So I won't be giving you a recap of how the Seahawks dominated the Packers, and I won't have a Friday rankings update.  I'll try to remedy all of that for Week 2, but for the first week of the season, this is what I'm giving you.  Hey, at least I'm getting these rankings out early!

Let's get right into it, shall we?
QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Drew Brees
3.Matthew Stafford
4.Andrew Luck
5.Matt Ryan
6.Nick Foles
7.Colin Kaepernick
8.Aaron Rodgers
9.Tom Brady
10.Jay Cutler
11.Cam Newton 
12.Russell Wilson
13.RGIII
14.Tony Romo
15.Carson Palmer 
16.Philip Rivers
17.Ben Roethlisberger 
18.Ryan Fitzpatrick
19.Ryan Tannehill
20.Geno Smith 

I'm hoping that my best keeper, Peyton Manning, can show that he's the #1 fantasy quarterback right out of the gate.  He'll be playing against Andrew Luck, and that's exactly who I'm playing against in my fantasy matchup.  I think both of these guys should put up big numbers in this contest, and I have both as top-5 plays this week.  Outside of the top-5 are several big names, most notably is Aaron Rodgers.  He'll be playing at Seattle in the Thursday night game, and that's a tough matchup for me to rank him any higher than 8th.

You may notice guys like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith not even in my top-20.  Look, it's Week 1.  If you have to dig this deep for your starting fantasy QB, then you have problems.

Anyway, if you've read my weekly rankings in previous seasons, you'll know that I usually do a Friday update and give you one player at each position I'm high on and one that I'm down on (versus the ESPN experts).  Well, I'm getting my rankings out too early and will be without a computer while on vacation.  So that will have to wait until next week.  I look forward to seeing who I will be high on and down on versus the experts, but I'll get to all of that in Week 2.

RBs
1.LeSean McCoy
2.Jamaal Charles
3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte
5.Marshawn Lynch
6.Arian Foster
7.Montee Ball 
8.Zac Stacy
9.Eddie Lacy
10.Frank Gore
11.Andre Ellington
12.Doug Martin
13.Alfred Morris
14.Giovani Bernard
15.DeMarco Murray
16.Toby Gerhart
17.Le'Veon Bell
18.Shane Vereen
19.Rashad Jennings
20.Joique Bell 
21.Chris Johnson 
22.Ben Tate
23.Fred Jackson  
24.Bernard Pierce
25.Steven Jackson
26.CJ Spiller
27.Ryan Mathews
28.Reggie Bush
29.Lamar Miller
30.Pierre Thomas
31.Trent Richardson 
32.Stevan Ridley
33.Maruice Jones-Drew
34.DeAngelo Williams
35.Darren Sproles
36.Mark Ingram
37.Knowshon Moreno
38.Bishop Sankey
39.Danny Woodhead
40.Carlos Hyde


My top-4 running backs this week look exactly the same as my pre-draft rankings.  That shouldn't be too surprising because none of them have terrible-looking matchups in Week 1.  But then you'll notice Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray fall a little further from their preseason rank because they face tough NFC West run defenses (Seattle and San Fran, respectively).  Speaking of the Niners, I'm going out on a limb and saying that I'll probably have Frank Gore higher than most this week.  I have him as a top-10 RB against the Cowboys, and I'll most likely be rooting for him in a bar somewhere near Houston after the game.  I also have Carlos Hyde rounded out my top-40, as I think San Fran could be pounding it on the ground with both RBs.

Hopefully you have better options than Sankey for Week 1.
Speaking of rookie running backs, Bishop Sankey is a dicey pick for Week 1, but I feel like he'll get enough touches to be top-40 worthy.  I guess we'll have to wait and see though.  Also, Jeremy Hill is borderline here, as he just misses making the rankings this week.  The Bengals are expected to run the ball more this year, and it seems like Hill will be a big part of that.  It's very possible he'll crack my list next week when Cincy hosts Atlanta for their home-opener.  I'm also holding off on guys like Andre Williams and LeGarrette Blount.  I drafted both in my league, but I think both will be very touchdown-dependent for fantasy points.  I'm going to wait and see how they're used in Week 1 before considering them for my top-40 RBs.
WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.DeMaryius Thomas
3.Dez Bryant 
4.Brandon Marshall
5.Julio Jones
6.AJ Green
7.Alshon Jeffery
8.Roddy White
9.Andre Johnson
10.Victor Cruz  
11.Larry Fitzgerald
12.Antonio Brown
13.Keenan Allen
14.Jordy Nelson
15.Vincent Jackson
16.Randall Cobb
17.Wes Welker
18.Pierre Garcon
19.Michael Crabtree
20.Michael Floyd
21.Percy Harvin
22.Cordarrelle Patterson
23.Torrey Smith
24.TY Hilton   
25.Eric Decker 
26.Emmanuel Sanders  
27.Mike Wallace
28.DeSean Jackson
29.Marques Colston 
30.Julian Edelman 
31.Golden Tate
32.Jeremy Maclin
33.Kendall Wright
34.Brandin Cooks
35.Cecil Shorts
36.Riley Cooper
37.Terrance Williams
38.Reggie Wayne
39.DeAndre Hopkins
40.Kelvin Benjamin

Cooks could make for a decent Flex play in Week 1...
In case you were wondering, my #41 guy is Markus Wheaton, but I couldn't quite rank him this week.  I lowered Antonio Brown a bit based on the fact that he'll be facing the Iron Haden most of the day though, and I have a feeling Wheaton could have a big first game this season.  You'll notice I have Wes Welker well into my top-20, but it's still no certainty he even plays on Sunday night.  If he doesn't, then Emmanuel Sanders needs to be bumped up at least 10 spots or so...



Another guy I like but couldn't quite fit into the rankings is Rueben Randle.  I think he'll have a big year, and it could start right away in Detroit this week.  You'll notice I haven't ranked Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins just yet either.  If you drafted either of those guys, you're braver than I am if you plan to start them in Week 1.  I'd at least wait a week or two and see how they handle the NFL game.  On the other hand, I did rank rookie wideouts Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks.  I think both could be a big part of their offenses right away.

TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Julius Thomas 
3.Vernon Davis
4.Jordan Cameron 
5.Greg Olsen
6.Rob Gronkowski
7.Kyle Rudolph
8.Jason Witten
9.Jordan Reed
10.Dennis Pitta
11.Zach Ertz
12.Martellus Bennett 
It's tough to only rank 12 tight ends for Week 1, but there it is.  Guys just barely not making the list include: Charles Clay, Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Ladarius Green.  Both of the Charger TEs you ask?  Yeah, Arizona's defense last year was THAT bad against that position.  I think both of them could have solid games.  

The toughest guy to rank this week had to be Gronk.  He's questionable to even suit up, but if he does then I'm still unsure as to how effective he'll even be.  I think he fits somewhere in the middle of the top-12 for Week 1, but if he produces then he could easily be right at the top for Week 2.

DEF
1.Chiefs
2.Seahawks 
3.Patriots
4.Bengals
5.Rams 
6.Panthers
7.49ers
8.Lions
9.Broncos
10.Jets 
11.Eagles
12.Steelers



I wanted to put the Saints in my top-12, but I just couldn't do it.  They're away from home and playing the team from Hard Knocks.  I watch the Falcons on a weekly basis, and there's just too much bias built in for me to think the Saints can stop that offense in Week 1.  I guess we'll see what happens.

Surprisingly, I only ranked two of the four AFC North defenses this week.  All of these teams play each other to kickoff their seasons, so I could see some low-scoring affairs.  But I don't know.  I'll have to check out those and others when I catch the highlights.

Good luck to everyone in Week 1!  
(Except you, David...)

Cheers,
Bart

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