2014 Fantasy Redeem Team

I mentioned in my last rankings update that it would probably be my last update before my own draft.  Well, I think I'm going to stick to that.  My draft is now just 3 days away and I'm going to keep my final tweaks offline (sorry, Carl).  I'll get another rankings update out there before the final preseason games, but for now I thought I'd give you this year's edition of the Fantasy Redeem Team.  

This team was all hype in 2013, but what about 2014...?

If you read this article in previous years, you know what this is all about.  To the first timers, here's the deal.  I'm going to give you a team who is ready to atone for their 2013 fantasy sins.  These are players who underperformed based on their draft day value, and I'm trying to ignore players who missed a considerable amount of time due to injury (so you won't see guys like Doug Martin or Julio Jones on this list).  What I am creating is a team of guys who had a pretty high 2013 ranking and ADP versus how they finished the season.  This could also be seen as a 2013 Hindsight All-Hype Team.

The 2013 team featured guys who I was spot on with like LeSean McCoy and Ryan Mathews, but it also included misses like Eli Manning and Dwayne Bowe.  They can't all be winners, but it's a fun exercise nonetheless.  I feel like all of these guys have the potential for a serious bounce-back year, and I'll tell you why.

Below you'll find each player's 2012 stats, 2013 stats, and my bold projected 2014 stats for them.  Instead of doing 2013 ADP vs. 2014 ADP, I decided to show you where they were being ranked/drafted (by position) in 2013 vs. 2014.  Then I'm comparing that to where I have each player in my personal rankings.  Hopefully this will simplify what is bound to be an overload of numbers as it is.  Enjoy!

QB: Tom Brady

2012 Stats: 16 GP,  4827 Pass Yds,  34 Pass TDs, 8 INTs, 4 Rush TD
2013 Stats: 16 GP,  4343 Pass Yds,  25 Pass TDs, 11 INTs, 0 Rush TD

My 2014 Projection:  16 GP,  4685 Pass Yds,  33 Pass TDs,  10 INTs, 1 Rush TD

2013 QB rank: 4

2014 QB rank: 10

My 2014 QB rank: 7

Tom and Bill at Redskins Training Camp in Richmond.

I'm pretty sure I actually have Brady ranked higher than any of the ESPN or Yahoo experts, but feel free to verify for yourself.  I guess they all prefer the potential of guys like RGIII and Matt Ryan, but not me.  After seeing Tommy Boy in person at Redskins training camp, he made me a believer all over again.  With guys like Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen potentially back to full health, Brady will also be back to his old self in no time.  Not only that, but guys like Thompkins and Dobson have a year under their belts now, and Julian Edelman has proven that he can make all kinds of plays for the Patriots.  With all of those weapons, I think I might actually be conservative with my 2014 projections.  But we also know that injuries happen (especially with some of those guys).  I just think Brady will overcome them, and his ceiling is well into 5000+ passing yards and who knows how many TDs if all of his weapons do stay healthy all year!

RB: Ray Rice

2012 Stats: 16 GP,  1143 Rush Yds,  9 Rush TDs, 478 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD
2013 Stats: 15 GP,  660 Rush Yds,  4 Rush TDs, 321 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs

My 2014 Projection: 14 GP,  942 Rush Yds,  6 Rush TDs, 515 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD

2013 RB rank: 3

2014 RB rank: 25

My 2014 RB rank: 26

The experts have various opinions on Ray Rice this year.  Some have him ranked inside their top-20 RBs, while others have him all the way down in the high 30s.  I have him ranked right around his ADP, but I may move him up my board depending on whether or not I draft a RB early.  You see, the major problem with Ray Ray this year is that he'll be missing the first two games due to suspension.  Some people think Bernard Pierce could solidify himself a large role in those two weeks (and they see that as the bigger problem), but I think Rice will come back and be the top dog.  I'm sure Pierce will have a role, as nearly every team has a committee with their running backs now.  But assuming he's healthy for the rest of the 14 games, I think Rice will get closer to his 2012 numbers rather than last season's forgettable stats.  We'll have to wait until Week 3 to see if he truly is a good fit for Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking system.  But if he is, he could be a steal as the #25 RB in fantasy drafts this season.

RB: Trent Richardson

2012 Stats: 15 GP,  950 Rush Yds,  11 Rush TDs, 367 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD
2013 Stats: 16 GP,  563 Rush Yds,  3 Rush TDs, 316 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD

My 2014 Projection: 16 GP,  907 Rush Yds,  8 Rush TDs, 433 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs

2013 RB rank: 8

2014 RB rank: 24

My 2014 RB rank: 28

I thought about going with CJ Spiller as my other RB here, but I thought I'd play it safe with Richardson.  HA!  This is anything but safe.  Do you see those 2013 numbers?!?  I'm actually surprised at how high ESPN has TRich ranked (Yahoo is closer to my ranking), but you have to like his situation in Indy.  With his biggest threat to playing time coming from Ahmad Bradshaw, Richardson should have every opportunity to thrive in the Colts offense once again.  I'm not sure if he'll be able to run the ball in it, but maybe he'll make up for it with receiving yards and goal line TDs.  That's what I'm counting on with my projection, and hopefully the mentoring from Edgerrin James will help him out this preseason.

WR: Victor Cruz

2012 Stats: 16 GP,  1092 Rec Yds, 10 Rec TDs
2013 Stats: 14 GP,  998 Rec Yds, 4 Rec TDs

My 2014 Projection: 16 GP,  1128 Rec Yds, 8 Rec TDs

2013 WR rank: 11

2014 WR rank: 15

My 2014 WR rank: 16

Victor only did the salsa in the endzone 4 times last season, and he missed the 1000-yard mark for the first time in his young career.  Of course he would have eclipsed that mark had he played in either of the final two games of the season, but a knee injury kept him from doing so.  With Hakeem Nicks off to Indy, Rueben Randle likely slides right into his position.  I like Randle to have a solid season, but Cruz should still get the bulk of the targets (I'm thinking around 150).  The Giants #1 receiver finished 2013 outside of the top-25 fantasy WRs, but this year he should threaten to get back into the top-10.

WR: Roddy White

2012 Stats: 16 GP,  1351 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs

I think Roddy will be doing more flips in 2014.

2013 Stats: 13 GP,  711 Rec Yds, 3 Rec TDs

My 2014 Projection: 16 GP,  1267 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs

2013 WR rank: 10

2014 WR rank: 19

My 2014 WR rank: 17

Right behind Cruz is where I've ranked Roddy as my #17 WR.  And now that I'm looking at my 2014 projection for each, I realize I might need to flip-flop the two.  Roddy got PAID recently, as the Falcons signed him on for 4 more years (which would have him playing his last NFL season at age 37).  He was the NFL WR version of an ironman until last season, when he finally missed his first NFL start due to a high ankle sprain.  It took him a long time to get healthy, but the second half of his season was much better. This year should be even more productive with attention going back to a healthy Julio Jones.  If both can stay healthy, I like for each to easily eclipse the 1000-yard mark and both could push for double-digit TDs as well.

TE: Kyle Rudolph

2012 Stats: 16 GP,  493 Rec Yds, 9 Rec TDs
2013 Stats: 8 GP,  313 Rec Yds, 3 Rec TDs

My 2014 Projection: 16 GP,  822 Rec Yds, 6 Rec TDs

2013 TE rank: 11

2014 TE rank: 9

My 2014 TE rank: 8

Along with Gronk and Pitta, Kyle Rudolph was also injured for a good part of last season.  So none of these guys really fit the category, but I had to pick one because no one else really fit the category either.  I'm going with Rudolph as a post-hype sleeper, and it looks like I'm all-in on him this year.  I already wrote about him a bit in my "Guys Ready for the Next Level", and I think the Norv Factor is going to put him over the top this season.  If you look at Jordan Cameron's numbers last season in Norv's offense (117 targets, 917 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs), I think we could see something close to that for Rudolph this year.  I'll be ready to jump on him late in a draft if I don't end up with Graham, Gronk, or Orange Julius.

FLEX: Lamar Miller

2012 Stats: 13 GP,  250 Rush Yds,  1 Rush TD, 45 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
2013 Stats: 16 GP,  709 Rush Yds,  2 Rush TDs, 170 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs

My 2014 Projection: 16 GP,  886 Rush Yds, 5 Rush TDs, 411 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs

2013 RB rank: 20

2014 RB rank: 33

My 2014 RB rank: 30

Knowshon could be No Factor in Miami...

I'm not ready to say Lamar Miller will become Shady McCoy in Bill Lazor's offense, but the change should definitely help his stat line.  As you can see, rushing touchdowns isn't exactly where Miller has shown much value in his first two years in the league anyway.  And even though Knowshon is still working his way back from a knee scope, I'd imagine he'll be the goal line back when healthy.  Doesn't matter for Miller's potential value this season.  I think he'll get twice as many receptions, which will increase his value a ton.  I also believe he'll have improved rushing stats as well, and the potential for a feature back role keeps his ceiling high for 2014.

That's it until next week, folks!

Cheers,
Bart