Real Football Predictions for 2014

The final preseason games are tonight, but then it'll be time for some real football!  For the last couple of years, I've sat down and tried to predict the winner of every NFL game on the schedule with a highly sophisticated system that involves eeny, meeny, miny, and moe.  It's a fun exercise, so I thought I'd do it again.

Here's what my simulation looks like for 2014...

NE	BUF	NYJ	MIA
14-2	4-12	5-11	7-9
BAL	PIT	CIN	CLE
8-8	8-8	9-7	6-10
HOU	TEN	JAC	IND
6-10	7-9	3-13	8-8
SD	KC	DEN	OAK
7-9	9-7	13-3	3-13
NYG	PHI	DAL	WAS
6-10	9-7	8-8	7-9
GB	CHI	DET	MIN
12-4	9-7	8-8	6-10
ATL	NO	CAR	TB
8-8	11-5	10-6	7-9
SF	SEA	STL	ARI
13-3	12-4	7-9	7-9

A healthy Gronk will help the Pats a TON! 

In 2012, I predicted 6 of the 8 division winners, but last year I only got half of them right.  This year I'm going to try to go 8 for 8 (yeah right!).  Here is some commentary on my predicted standings:

AFC East: So yeah, I like New England this year.  The Patriots will continue to dominate a weak division, but I think they'll dominate the rest of the league along the way too.  Not only will Tom Brady play like an MVP at age 37, but the defense is going to play their part too.  I'm not giving the Jets enough credit with my 5-11 prediction, and if Geno Smith takes a step forward and the defense plays like they can, the Jets could push for a Wild Card spot.

AFC North: I think this division will get back to producing two playoff teams this season.  I'm hoping the other is Baltimore, but I could realistically see it being any of them.  Like last year, I think Cincinnati will make the playoffs and the Ravens might be on the outside looking in.  Unlike last year, I think the Steelers will improve on defense and somehow win this division for the first time since 2010, when they made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Yep. You guys will win the AFC South

AFC South: Last season I said Indy wouldn't win this division for at least another year in the Andrew Luck Era.  Boy, was I wrong!  This year I'm going out on a limb and not sticking with Indy, even though I think the rest of the division is likely to still be weak (especially the Jags).  That being said, I think Houston could be better than the 6 wins I've given them, and I won't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt brings some magic to Tennessee.  If Locker can stay healthy, maybe it'll be the Titans (and not the Texans) who become this year's surprise division winner.

AFC West: As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, this will be Denver (and it's not even close).  I also think the Chiefs will make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since...probably before I even played fantasy football.  If Manning misses time due to injury, it'll probably crush my fantasy team.  It also would open the door wide open for KC to take the division.

NFC East: I'm probably being conservative with 9 wins for the Eagles, but I think they'll take the division again no matter how many wins they end up with.  But their first Super Bowl?  I don't think so...

NFC North: I don't doubt Green Bay will win this division for the 4th year in a row, but Detroit could be really close to Da Bears.  In fact, my simulation has the Lions losing to the Panthers in Week 2, but if I switch the result of just that one game then they're in the playoffs.  Sure, why not?

NFC South: I was way off with the Falcons last year, and I'm rolling with the Saints in 2014.  I think this will be one of the toughest divisions in the league this season, and I actually think the Panthers will end up 9-7 somehow (not 10-6 as my simulation predicted...maybe it's the Lions game).

I think another Super Bowl is a real possibility for Brees and the Saints in 2014

NFC West: San Fran and Seattle will continue to steamroll the league with their defenses.  Both will make the playoffs, but I'll take the Niners to win the division.  I did this simulation before Sam Bradford went down again, but I'll just stick with it as is.  Maybe the Rams finish with only 5 or 6 wins, but I don't think Arizona will be that second NFC Wild Card.

Using my simulation as a guide, here's what I'm predicting for 2014:

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card1: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Wild Card2: Cincinnati Bengals

[New England over Denver in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

NFC Wild Card1: Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions

[New Orleans over Seattle in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: New England over New Orleans

Cheers,

Bart