Thursday, September 11, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

I'm back home from Texas, and while it's always tough to end a vacation, it does feel good to be back in Virginia.  I mean, literally it feels so much better.  I know it was hot here last week too, but it was seriously hot in Austin.  If RVA and ATX had a humidity-off, I think the latter would take the cake.  Before I get into the rankings for Week 2, let's take a look back and see what I learned in Week 1...

I'll start with Texas:
1. I already mentioned the heat, but it bears repeating.  Texas is hot, ya'll.
Displaying photo 1.JPG2. People in Texas LOVE them some Texas.  Whether it's singing "The Eyes of Texas", "Deep in the Heart of Texas", or some other Texas theme song...they belt it out for their home state.  Not only that, but they treat the Texas state flag as well as (if not better than) the American flag.  I'm not saying it's wrong by any means, but it was interesting to see.
3. Speaking of music, Texans absolutely love George Strait.  I don't know who the #2 most popular country music star is in Texas, but it's not even close to this guy.  He's all over the airwaves, and you see signs of him in restaurants, bars, etc.  When we were at the Brad Paisley concert and his image flashed on the big screen, people lost their $*#+!
Displaying photo 5.JPG
Up close with Mr. Paisley.
4. As for Brad Paisley, that dude is a really good live performer.  We got lucky because we had seats pretty far back in the amphitheater (almost to the lawn), but midway through the show he came up to our section with his entire band and performed 3 or 4 songs.  He was literally like 10 rows in front of us for that part of the show.
5. Austin isn't that weird.  I know that's their slogan and everything, and I thought it was a really cool city.  But weird?  I don't know.  Maybe I'm used to Richmond, and maybe it's also kind of weird.  Either way, we had a great time there.
6. We need to get some Texas beers distributed up this way.  We went to a few breweries and even more bars while on vacation, and the craft beer scene in Texas is solid.  Austin Beerworks, (512), Jester King, Infamous, Karbach, Saint Arnold...the list goes on and on.  And the bars around Austin that sell these fine beers are pretty damn amazing themselves.
7. I saw a lot of (older) men wearing those hunting/fishing shirts with the flaps on the back.  They wear the hell out of those shirts.  I guess it helps with sweating or something, but I found that regular shirts worked just fine.
8. Breakfast tacos are really big in Texas, and I'm a big, big fan.
9. Speaking of food, I can't leave out the BBQ.  It makes my mouth water just thinking about it.  We went to a few places while we were there, but Black's in Lockhart and The Salt Lick in Driftwood were amazing.  And it's not just barbecue.  Texans are very serious about their beef in general, and God bless them for it.
10. To lead us into talking about football, I'll make one other observation.  Texans do love their football.  When we were in Lockhart, we walked around the town a little bit.  Every store front had paint on the windows for their high school football team (Go Lions!).  It was exactly what I pictured from watching movies like Varsity Blues and Friday Night Lights.  And between the Longhorns and Texans games we attended, the fans were very loud and supportive...and they were actually very friendly to me and my wife, even though we were both rocking Redskins jerseys.

So for that reason and many others, a big "thank you"goes out to Texans for their hospitality (except for Cowboy fans, who are still the worst...especially the disgusting couple in front of us, in an exit row, who immediately leaned their seats back and jammed our knees after takeoff and then proceeded to snuggle and make out).  It also leads me into talking about what I learned from Week 1 in the NFL.  Like I said, we were at a game on Sunday so I wasn't in front of a tv watching all of the games.  But I did get to watch most of both 4:00 games, all of the Sunday nighter, and about half of each of the Monday night games after we got back much later than expected due to some maintenance issues courtesy of American Airlines.

Anyway, I watched all of the highlights and reviewed all of the box scores.  I've read some fantasy football articles from the first weekend of the season, and here are 10 of my thoughts:
1. The NFC East looks terrible (again).  The Redskins killed themselves with turnovers, and the Cowboys and Giants did the same thing.  Philly was able to come back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to beat the Jags, but the Eagles were a double-digit favorite in that game!  After seeing my team fall to the Texans in Week 1, it at least gives me hope because our division seems so weak.  As for Dallas, their defense appears to still be one of the worst in the league.  Continue to play your fantasy guys if they're playing the 'Boys (and the rest of the NFC East for that matter).
Martin struggled against Carolina, and got injured to boot.
2. Guys are going to get injured, so hopefully you drafted well and can work the wire for depth.  As of this writing, we don't definitively know the Week 2 status of guys like Eddie Lacy or Doug Martin.  What we do know is that highly drafted fantasy players will miss considerable amounts of time this season.  It will happen, so be ready when it does with guys on your roster.
3. Every year, more and more teams seem to be using running back committees.  That doesn't mean you can't find fantasy value in them because you definitely can.  It just makes it frustrating from week to week for certain guys, and it makes me happy I drafted "bellcow" types with my first 3 draft picks.
4. The Hard Knocks effect is real!  The Falcons appeared to be firing on all cylinders once again on offense.  Their D is still going to give up points, but who cares for fantasy value?  If you own an Atlanta position player, you have to be optimistic after that win over the Saints in Week 1.
5. Who is this year's Zac Stacy (a guy NO ONE selected in fantasy drafts but who could be a top-10 RB in the second half of the season)?  With Ray Rice now officially out of Baltimore, my pick of Lorenzo Taliaferro could actually be right.  We're still at least a week or two away from that (potentially) coming to fruition though, as he's buried on the depth chart behind Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce.  But Pierce's fumble and subsequent benching against the Bengals could help the rookie's chances, and we'll see if he gets in the mix tonight.
6. What gives, Andy Reid?  Jamaal Charles touched the ball just 11 times in their loss to the Titans.  That ain't going to get it done for the Chiefs, and it sure won't get it done for fantasy owners.  Reid admitted it was "negligence on his part", and I'm sure Charles will get fed in Week 2 (and beyond).  Speaking of that game, I like the way my dark horse AFC South pick looked.  Stay tuned on the Titans...
Brady and the Pats should right the ship as soon as this week.
7. The biggest surprises of the week might have been the Bears and Patriots both opening up their seasons with losses.  Don't panic though...at least if you're a Pats fan.  New England lost a division game on the road, and they'll bounce back.  The Bears lost at home to the Bills...so, um, yeah.
8. Speaking of Buffalo, Sammy Watkins will NOT be the top fantasy rookie WR this season.  I made a bet on this during my fantasy draft, and I might have also made it against Mike Evans as well (the details are a little fuzzy for some reason).  My thinking was that guys like Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin would be for real and appeared to be in better fantasy situations than the other, higher draft picks.  Week 1 showed that, and we'll see if that trend continues.
9. And while we're talking rookies, I'll mention Carlos Hyde.  This was one of the few games I actually saw quite a bit of over the weekend, but I thoroughly enjoyed watching the Niners destroy Dallas.  The big thing I noticed was how Carlos Hyde ran when he got the opportunity.  Frank Gore is in a contract year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see San Fran give the rookie more touches as the year goes on (and consider letting Gore go at the end of this season).  If anyone looks like this year's Montee Ball, it's Hyde.
10. I used the phrase "Don't Panic" earlier, and for the most part I'd say that applies across the board.  It's only Week 1, so try not to overreact.  If you own Aaron Rodgers, Demaryius Thomas, or Jamaal Charles?  Relax...it'll be OK.  But if you have guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, or Trent Richardson?  You may want to pay attention to what happened in the first week of the season.  Michael Floyd looks more and more like the #1 WR in Arizona, Eli and the Giants are struggling in their new offense, and TRich still looks like the same running back he was last year.  Maybe all of those things will magically change, but you should at least keep an eye on those situations if you have any of those guys (among many others).

I know what you're thinking..."Get to the rankings already!"

Well, you could have just scrolled through all of that and skipped down to the rankings.  But if you've read this much, then maybe just read a little more.  If you've read my rankings the last couple of years, you know I took great pride in getting them out before Yahoo, ESPN, and other expert rankings.  I would then do a Friday update after the Thursday night game, compare my rankings to ESPN's, and give you some players I'd be high/low on based on their rankings versus mine.

ESPN guys are ranking sooner, so I'm ranking later this year.
Well, things are changing in 2014.  Matthew Berry is now doing his "TMR200" on Tuesdays, and sites are getting their rankings out earlier and earlier.  And while I enjoy doing these rankings, I'm not breaking my neck to get them out on Tuesday mornings.  In fact, I'm going to do the opposite.  This year, I'm going to give you rankings on THURSDAYS: one list, no Friday update, comparison versus ESPN ranks, and I'm going to expand each position a bit to account for not removing Thursday night players (since I'm not doing an update).  I found that most people read my early rankings anyway, and not so much my Friday update.  I think this will work out best.

And since I've been doing this for a while now, I don't think anyone will question that these are MY rankings.
I'm not piggy-backing on anyone here.

So with all of that being said, here are your rankings for Week 2.  I'll keep the position lists in bold for those who don't care about my commentary and just want to see the damn rankings.  But I hope some of you actually do enjoy the comments after each section, and feel free to make your own comments below (including start/sit questions or anything else).

Here we go!
QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Aaron Rodgers
3.Andrew Luck
4.Drew Brees
5.Nick Foles
6.Colin Kaepernick
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Jake Locker
9.Matt Ryan
10.Andy Dalton 
11.Tom Brady
12.Russell Wilson
13.Carson Palmer
14.RGIII
15.Cam Newton
16.Tony Romo
17.Jay Cutler
18.Ben Roethlisberger
19.Ryan Tannehill
20.Joe Flacco
21.Philip Rivers
22.Alex Smith
23.Geno Smith
24.Ryan Fitzpatrick
25.Josh McCown

Peyton Manning may have gotten the better of Andrew Luck in reality, but Luck actually finished with more fantasy points in Week 1.  I had both as top-5 plays last week, and both finished as such.  But the top fantasy QB was Matt Ryan, who threw for 448 yards and 3 TDs.  We'll see what he can do away from home in a rowdy Cincy environment in Week 2, but I don't think he'll be a top-5 QB two weeks in a row.  Outside of the top-5 last week were several big names, including Aaron Rodgers.  He struggled at Seattle on Thursday night, but he should do much better in Green Bay's home opener against the Jets.  I'm playing against him this week, so I at least hope he hits Jordy on plenty of his throws!  As for this week, let me give you a QB I'm high on and down on versus the ESPN experts.

I'm high on: Jake Locker (ESPN #13, ME #8) 
I'm also really high on the Red Rifle (ESPN #14, ME #10), as the ESPN experts continue to show him no love in 2014.  But I feel compelled to talk about Jake Locker here.  He was easily a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 1, and that was at Arrowhead.  Now he goes home to Tennessee to host the Cowboys, and we all know what the 49ers did to that defense last week.  Locker looks to be a solid fantasy QB this year if he can stay healthy.  As for this week against that Dallas defense, I think he should be considered over guys like Matt Ryan and Tom Brady.

I'm down on: Russell Wilson (ESPN #7, ME #12) 
He was a top-10 fantasy QB in the first game of the NFL season, a home game against the Packers.  But now he'll go on the road to face the Chargers, who will look to bounce back after giving up 300+ passing yards and a pair of touchdowns to Carson Palmer in Week 1.  San Diego was a top-12 defense in points allowed last season, and that included the 12th fewest passing TDs allowed.  Granted, Russell Wilson can also get fantasy points with his feet and this pick could easily backfire on me.  But I'm going to say Wilson finishes outside of the top-10 fantasy QBs in Week 2.

RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
2.LeSean McCoy
3.Arian Foster
4.Jamaal Charles
5.Marshawn Lynch
6.Matt Forte
7.Montee Ball 
8.Giovani Bernard
9.DeMarco Murray
10.Le'Veon Bell
11.Frank Gore
12.Alfred Morris
13.(Eddie Lacy)
14.Shane Vereen
15.Chris Johnson
16.Andre Ellington
17.Rashad Jennings
18.Knowshon Moreno
19.Zac Stacy
20.CJ Spiller
21.(Doug Martin)
22.Toby Gerhart 
23.Fred Jackson
24.Joique Bell 
25.Terrance West
26.Reggie Bush
27.Shonn Greene
28.Ryan Mathews
29.Mark Ingram
30.Steven Jackson
31.Pierre Thomas
32.Darren Sproles
33.Justin Forsett
34.Chris Ivory
35.Carlos Hyde 
36.Maruice Jones-Drew
37.Lamar Miller
38.Stevan Ridley
39.DeAngelo Williams
40.Trent Richardson
41.Isaiah Crowell
42.Ahmad Bradshaw
43.Bernard Pierce
44.Danny Woodhead
45.Jeremy Hill
46.Benny Cunningham
47.Darren McFadden
48.Dexter McCluster
49.LeGarrette Blount
50.Khiry Robinson

You may have noticed I have Eddie Lacy and Doug Martin in parentheses, and that's no mistake.  Lacy isn't cleared yet from his concussion against the Seahawks, and Martin suffered some sort of leg injury that kept him out of the finish of the game against Carolina.  So as of right now, I'm not sure either will play.  If Lacy is out, then James Starks would make the rankings, but he'd fall into the 33-35 range for me.  The Jets have a solid run defense, and the only reason Lacy is even that high is because he's such a beast.  If Martin is out, I'd probably rank Bobby Rainey right around the same area (mid 20s), as he has shown he can fill in for the Muscle Hamster quite well.   

I'm high on: Fred Jackson (ESPN #31, ME #23) 
I'm a little worried about making this pick because CJ Spiller actually got a lot more carries (and total touches) than old man Fred in Week 1.  But Jackson averaged around 100 total yards and scored in EACH of his games against Miami last season.  I think he'll rack up plenty of yardage and find the endzone in this one as well.  That has me ranking him as a low end RB2 and definite Flex for this week.

I'm down on: Chris Ivory (ESPN #27, ME #34) 
I'm also concerned about Ryan Mathews and his matchup against Seattle, which is why I have him ranked a few spots lower than ESPN.  But I'd rather talk about Ivory here, who actually has a nice looking matchup against Green Bay.  The thing is, I really like Chris Johnson to have a big game here (not Ivory).  I know this is easy to say, but if you look at the game against Oakland and take away Ivory's 4th quarter 71-yd TD run, he had 9 carries for 31 yards and he was blanked in the passing game.  You can all but pencil him in for a goal line TD in this game, but if he doesn't get that then I think he's in line for a very mediocre fantasy day.  I'd rather start someone like Terrance West or Steven Jackson, both starters who should be in line for the bulk of their team's carries in Week 2.
I don't think Rex will be celebrating much in Green Bay in Week 2.
WRs
1.DeMaryius Thomas
2.AJ Green
3.Calvin Johnson
4.Jordy Nelson
5.Dez Bryant 
6.Antonio Brown
7.Brandon Marshall
8.Randall Cobb
9.Julio Jones
10.Percy Harvin
11.Emmanuel Sanders 
12.Andre Johnson
13.Cordarrelle Patterson 
14.Roddy White
15.Alshon Jeffery
16.Michael Floyd
17.Jeremy Maclin
18.Vincent Jackson
19.Mike Wallace 
20.Pierre Garcon
21.Julian Edelman
22.Kendall Wright
23.Marques Colston
24.Reggie Wayne 
25.Torrey Smith
26.Victor Cruz
27.Larry Fitzgerald
28.Eric Decker
29.TY Hilton
30.DeSean Jackson
31.Keenan Allen 
32.Brandin Cooks
33.Justin Hunter
34.Kelvin Benjamin
35.Michael Crabtree 
36.Golden Tate
37.DeAndre Hopkins
38.Markus Wheaton
39.Anquan Boldin
40.Terrance Williams
41.Steve Smith
42.Brian Quick
43.Allen Hurns
44.Greg Jennings
45.Dwayne Bowe
46.Andrew Hawkins
47.Riley Cooper
48.Hakeem Nicks
49.Mohamed Sanu
50.Jarrett Boykin

Last week I wrote about not ranking rookies Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins just yet (in my then top-40).  In fact, I'm still not ranking them in my top-50.  However, I did rank rookie wideouts Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks and said I thought "both could be a big part of their offenses right away."  As I mentioned above the rankings, that's exactly what happened in Week 1.  With Kenny Stills sidelined, Cooks looked great in that high-powered New Orleans offense.  For Carolina, Benjamin made a great TD catch that should be the first of many.  Both continue to move up my rankings this week, but let's see where my list differs from ESPN's...

I think Torrey will have a much better Week 2.
I'm high on: Torrey Smith (ESPN #33, ME #25) 
In Week 1, Torrey Smith struggled a bit as he was covered most of the day by Leon Hall.  I think people have forgotten a little about Hall in recent years due to his Achilles injuries, but the guy can be a shutdown corner.  That lead to double-digit targets for Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta, and only 7 for Torrey.  When asked this week about it, Flacco said he thinks Torrey Smith with be a 100-reception guy this year.  That tells me that he'll be throwing him the rock a little more tonight, and I think he'll have double-digit targets.  Last year against the Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium, Torrey saw 10 targets and turned that into 6 catches for 93 yards and a TD.  I think he'll do something similar tonight in what hopefully will be the first win of the year for the Ravens!

I'm down on: Julio Jones (ESPN #4, ME #9) 
You may think I'm crazy for being "down" on Julio this week, but you'll probably think I'm even crazier for my reasoning.  Yep, it's Leon Hall again.  OK, so it's not just Leon Hall, but the Bengals D in a road game in general has something to do with it.  I don't think Matt Ryan will put up numbers like he did against the Saints last week (in Atlanta), and if Hall covers Jones all day then I think he could see a slight dip in targets.  Look, I still have him as a top-10 WR, and if you have him then you're starting him.  I'm just saying that I like for guys like Brandon Marshall and both top Green Bay WRs to have better fantasy production this week.

TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Julius Thomas 
3.Rob Gronkowski
4.Greg Olsen
5.Vernon Davis
6.Zach Ertz
7.Dennis Pitta
8.Kyle Rudolph
9.Jason Witten
10.(Jordan Cameron)
11.Martellus Bennett 
12.Charles Clay
13.Delanie Walker
14.Heath Miller
15.Jermaine Gresham

Jimmy Graham had a solid day in Week 1 with 82 yards, but it was nothing compared to Julius Thomas and his 100+ yards and 3 scores.  I had Thomas ranked second last week, and that's where he'll stay for now.  I still can't bring myself to remove Graham from the top spot.  You may also recall last week I said Gronk would wind up in the middle of the top-12, and he finished 8th (but really 6th among the highly-ranked TEs).  I'd say that was about right then.  I have him creeping up my rankings this week, and Zach Ertz is up a couple of spots as well.  I was happy to see my fantasy TE have a big day, and I'm hoping for a big season out of Philly's 2nd-year tight end.  I've added a handful of TEs to make this a top-15, which should help you on Sunday because two of these guys are playing against each other tonight and Jordan Cameron could be iffy with a shoulder issue.  So by the time the weekend rolls around, this very well could just be a top-12 anyway...

As usual, I'd have to be splitting hairs to give you a guy I like and a guy I don't like versus the ESPN experts at this position, so I'm not going to do that.  What I will say is to keep an eye on Jermaine Gresham.  With Tyler Eifert placed on the short term IR (designated to return Week 10), Gresham is now the main option to catch passes at that position for the Bengals.  He has produced in the past, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a top-12 fantasy tight end over the next 10 weeks or so.

DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Texans
3.Cardinals
4.Broncos
5.49ers
6.Bucs
7.Patriots
8.Packers
9.Saints
10.Panthers
11.Ravens
12.Rams
13.Titans
14.Bengals
15.Dolphins



I wanted to rank the Saints last week, but I just couldn't do it.  The Hard Knocks effect got to me, and I'm glad it did.  They couldn't stop Matt Ryan and company, and I'm not 100% sure the Bengals will be able to do it either (which is mostly why I'm ranking THEM so low this week).  You'll notice I expanded my defenses to a top-15 as well, so I was able to sneak in a few more this week.  Let's see who I like and don't like versus the ESPN experts, shall we?

With no Beast Mode to deal with, the Packer D should be better
I'm high on: Packers (ESPN #13, ME #8) 
Green Bay had a tough task in Seattle to stop Russell Wilson, Beast Mode, and company.  But this week they'll be at Lambeau facing Geno Smith and the Jets.  The Raiders managed decent defensive fantasy points in New York last week, so I don't see why the Packers can't do it at home.  If they can stop the running game, I think a couple of turnovers courtesy of Geno should help boost their fantasy points this week.  For some reason, a defensive touchdown seems very likely to me in this one...

I'm down on: Panthers (ESPN #4, ME #10) 
The Panthers looked good last week in Tampa Bay, but they were going up against a new QB in a new system with a new coach and an offensive line that had question marks before the season even began.  Let's see how they do in their home opener against a Lions offense that looks improved over what was already a fairly potent attack in 2013.  I think if Stafford can avoid interceptions, he'll have that offense marching down the field all day and the Lions might even come out with a win in what I think could be a higher scoring affair than people may think.  

That's it for Week 2.  Good luck everyone (except you, Mac).

Cheers,
Bart

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