Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Entire Positions I'm Not Drafting (On ALL 32 Teams)

Last Saturday, I finally made it over to Redskins Training Camp, and I was not disappointed.  I got to see the new facility here in Richmond and all of the players during their morning walkthrough.  I witnessed fans roaring to a visor-wearing Kirk Cousins hitting Aldrick Robinson on a deep route (with little to no defense).  I saw RGIII and Darrell Young getting hyped on the sideline with some high, low, and middle high-fiving routine that I couldn't replicate if I had all day to practice it myself.  But the coolest thing that morning was when the countdown clock hit all zeros and the players came to the far endzone to sign a few autographs and invite kids to go on the field with them.  We happened to be standing right there when RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a few 300+ pounders came our way (pictured).  I have to admit, it made me feel like a kid again too.


It also has my vision blurred when I update my rankings and write these articles.  As you'll see below, I'm going to have a hard time writing anything negative about the Redskins, especially when it comes to the offensive side of the ball.  Seeing these guys in person during a time when anything and everything is possible is clouding my judgement, and I fully acknowledge that fact.  So maybe take it with a grain of salt when I say that there's not a position I wouldn't draft on MY team (except for the team defense, which is my only worry...at least for right now).  As for all of the other teams in the NFL, I'm going to give you a position on each that I'm probably not drafting this year.  Some of these are easy, and some are not.  Some positions I'm flat out avoiding, while others I just feel that players will be going too high in drafts for me (and thus, I won't end up with them).  I tried to stay away from the obvious choices, but in some cases that wasn't possible.  Bear with me.  This is a long one...

Arizona Cardinals
QB: I like Palmer to improve the numbers of his receivers (including tight ends), but I don’t see him throwing 30 TDs, and he’ll probably throw 20 picks.  There are just too many QBs ahead of him who you can draft to be your starter, and I typically only draft one QB.  I think he'll be a waiver wire fill-in for multiple teams in my league (and yours).

Atlanta Falcons
I want YOU...to draft me!
K: Sorry to jump to this position so quickly, but it's hard to knock any of the Dirty Birds.  I wait until the very last round to draft a kicker, but someone will probably draft Matt Bryant earlier than that.  He’s a good kicker on a good team, but no kicker is worth taking earlier than the last round of a fantasy draft.

Baltimore Ravens
WR: I like Torrey Smith a lot, and I think he’ll have a big year (maybe even more so now that Pitta is out).  I think he could finally break the 1000 yard mark, and he’ll probably haul in 8-10 TDs.  That being said, I think other people have that expectation as well, so he’ll probably go earlier than I want to take him in my draft.  And aside from Smith, I’m not looking at any other receivers in Baltimore.

Buffalo Bills
WR or TE: With E.J. Manuel most likely starting in Buffalo, I doubt I’ll be taking any pass catchers there.  Steve Johnson broke his back in the offseason, and the #2 WR is probably going to be rookie Robert Woods.  I don’t trust anyone to consistently get the ball for the Bills, other than C.J. Spiller.

Carolina Panthers
RB: This is an easy one.  Last year I warned you not to take any Carolina running backs, and this season is no different.  Jonathan Stewart is already on the PUP list due to his ankles.  I mean, the guy withdrew from a golf tournament a couple weeks ago.  That's not a good sign.  DeAngelo Williams is on the wrong side of 30, and with Cam Newton getting most of the yards on the ground, I’m just not taking a Panther RB.

Chicago Bears
QB: Seriously?  Why is Jay Cutler still ranked in the top 20 fantasy QBs?  In the last three seasons, he’s averaging about 3000 yards and 20 TDs a year.  Why does that get anyone excited about drafting him?  I think having him ranked ahead of guys like Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford is just insane, and I’ll probably never draft Cutler in any draft…ever. 

Cincinnati Bengals
TE: I like Andy Dalton a lot, but I don’t know which one of his tight ends he’s going to like a lot this year.  The Bengals snagged Tyler Eifert in the first round of the 2013 draft, and I’m sure they intend to use him.  Gresham is still a solid player, but I just don’t trust either of them to have big numbers this year.  I think they’ll both produce, but at average levels.


Cleveland Browns
WR: I could say QB too, but that’s too obvious.  I think Jordan Cameron is a sneaky late round sleeper with Weeden still developing, but I’m not taking any Browns WR this year.  Josh Gordon has the most talent, but he’s suspended to start the season, and I’m betting he’ll miss more time for one reason or another in 2013.

Dallas Cowboys
RB: This isn't to say that DeMarco Murray isn't draftable because of course he is.  I just don’t want to pay a high price tag for a guy who has been injured as much and produced at about the same level as a Ryan Mathews (who is going much later in drafts).  I think Murray could have a breakout season, but I also think he could be sidelined with an injury and rookie Joseph Randle could get a chance to shine.  All of this to say that most likely I won’t be drafting any Cowboys running back this year, and I probably need to adjust my rankings even further.

Denver Broncos
TE: The Broncos brought in Wes Welker in the offseason as another weapon for Manning (as if he needed it).  Peyton didn't pad his tight end’s numbers last year, so I don’t see him doing that with any one of his tight ends this year either (especially with the addition of Welker).  It's that simple.

He'll probably catch this many TDs, but on someone else's fantasy team.
Detroit Lions
WR: Don’t draft ANY Lions wide receiver!  (I jus keeeedding.)  Of course Megatron is the easy pick for #1 overall WR, but he won’t end up on my team this year.  I have a top 6 (lottery) pick in my league’s draft, and I’ll be using that pick on a running back.  Needless to say, the top WR in the league won’t be there in Round 2 for me.  In fact, I think it’s likely he’ll go in the first 6 picks (just not to me).  I could see drafting Ryan Broyles in the later rounds, but I’m sure there will be other guys I’m interested in more than him at that point in my draft.

Green Bay Packers
K: Yeah I went there again.  I mean, I thought about going RB, but I think it’s very likely I end up with one of the Packer rookies if the timing is right in my draft.  But the only Green Bay position I won’t be drafting is kicker.  It’s a high powered offense, so the kicker should get plenty of points.  But Crosby’s numbers have been kind of all over the place, and his accuracy last year was only 64%.  That’s pretty horrible.  Combine that with bad weather games, and he quickly becomes a guy who’s not even on my radar in the last round.

Houston Texans
TE: Owen Daniels has never impressed me enough to draft him in any league I've ever been in.  He’ll probably have a solid year, and I currently have him ranked as my #10 TE.  But the odds are I’ll get one of my guys I have ranked above him.  And if I don’t, I might actually reconsider taking tight end until the very end.  I’d rather let someone else take him and I’ll take a risk on someone like a Fred Davis or Rob Housler much later.

Indianapolis Colts
TE: Other than defense, this is the only Colt position I can say I won’t be considering in any draft I do this year.  I've already written about how much I like Luck.  I doubt I’ll end up with Bradshaw, but I love Ballard (especially where he’s going in drafts).  And I think you can find value in any of the top 3 Indy WRs, depending on what round you can get them in.  But tight end is tricky.  This is similar to what I already wrote about Manning and the Broncos, which is pretty ironic.  The Colts drafted two TEs in the first three rounds of the 2012 draft, and neither stood out last year.  Maybe one of them will step up this year, but your guess is as good as mine as to which one that'll be.

Jacksonville Jaguars
QB: I actually like MJD and Cecil Shorts quite a bit this season.  I think they’ll both have good years despite their quarterback.  I don’t know that anyone else on the team will produce much though.  Needless to say, whoever the starting QB in Jacksonville is, I won’t be considering him on draft day.

Kansas City Chiefs
QB: This is another easy one.  See also Jaguars, Jacksonville (replace MJD and Cecil Shorts with Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe).

Ryan, a little to the left...little more...
Miami Dolphins
QB: I’m noticing a trend here with these weak AFC teams.  I think Tannehill will improve on his rookie numbers, but not much.  I could see him having a great camp/preseason, look good with Hartline and newly acquired Mike Wallace, and become a sexy sleeper pick at QB.  I won't be buying it though.  I don’t think he’ll make a huge jump in 2013. 

Minnesota Vikings
WR: Well I’m obviously not taking Ponder at QB, but I don’t think I’ll end up drafting any of his receivers either.  Cordarrelle Patterson is interesting in a keeper league, but only if the Vikings go to Matt Cassell mid-year or make a move in the offseason.  Greg Jennings will suffer without a QB named Favre or Rodgers, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him battling injuries again anyway.  I won’t be looking too much to the Vikings for WR help.

New England Patriots
TE: When it comes to drafting a fantasy football team, you can’t ignore the Patriots, but there are still a lot of question marks around the tight end position.  If Gronk looks like he’ll be starting Week 1 of the regular season, he might move up even more in my rankings.  But he’ll do the same in everyone else’s, and someone might be crazy enough to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on him if he looks healthy.  That’ll be too rich for my blood, and I don’t trust anyone behind him in the depth chart even if Gronk starts the year on the PUP List.

New Orleans Saints
RB: If you've read any of my articles, you know my disdain for Pierre Thomas, so I won’t re-hash any of that.  I owned Mark Ingram for a while last year, but he didn't do much in the first half of the year, so I ended up waiving him.  He did better in the latter part of the season, but I don’t know if I can trust him for another year.  Meanwhile, Sproles turned 30 last month, and his rushing attempts are on the decline.  He’ll still be viable in the passing game, but I’m not sure I want to rely on him breaking 7 or 8 TDs on screen passes.  The Saints backfield is like kryptonite to me though.  I've owned Thomas and Ingram in the past, so maybe I’ll end up with Sproles this season…but I hope not!

New York Giants
You go that way, and I'll just throw to Cruz.
TE: If you want a guy to get you 600 yards and 5 or 6 TDs this year, then Brandon Myers is your guy.  If you take a look at past tight ends Eli has had, that’s pretty much what they've done.  Martellus Bennett, Kevin Boss, Jake Ballard…the story is the same with all of them.  Yes, Myers had a career year in Oakland in 2012, but I don’t think he’ll get close to 100 targets in a Giants uniform.  Eli has better options on the outside to throw to.  Myers is no sleeper of mine.

New York Jets
WR: Really I could have gone with just about anything here.  Aside from Chris Ivory, I don’t want ANY Jets on my team.  And even Ivory has injury concerns.  I don’t trust either QB to put up decent numbers, and I don’t think either one will get the ball to WRs and TEs on any sort of consistent basis.  If I had to take a receiver, I’d probably take Kerley.  But I think he’ll probably have three or four OK games this year.  The same could probably be said for Hill at season’s end.  Bottom line is this: I’m not drafting a Jet unless I can get Ivory for a decent price.

Oakland Raiders
QB:  I’ll just keep it simple with the Raiders and say I won’t draft an Oakland QB.  I know that’s a cop-out, but I’m using my mulligan here.  I could see myself drafting McFadden and maybe even Denarius Moore late.  Heck, I might draft Rashad Jennings toward the end of my draft, knowing McFadden will get injured at some point this season.  I feel like TE would have been easy here too because I don’t know any of those names on their roster, but I’ll keep it simple with QB.

Philadelphia Eagles
TE: Same reasoning with the Bengals.  The Eagles got Ertz in the first round of the draft for a reason.  I wouldn't take him or Celek this season.  In fact, I may not end up with any Philly pass catchers this year.  LeSean McCoy should get a ton of looks and touches in Chip Kelly’s offense, but I’m just not sure about the receiving corps just yet (especially after the injury to Maclin).

Sure I'll start Bell.  *wink*
Pittsburgh Steelers
RB: The experts all have Le’Veon Bell ranked like he’ll be the starting tailback in Week 1, but I’m not so sure.  The Steelers re-signed Isaac Redman, and Dwyer looked decent at times last year.  They also got Stephens-Howling in the offseason.  I think there are too many average RBs in Pittsburgh for me to use a high pick on the rookie, or even a late pick on any of the others.  I just wouldn't know which backup to even take at this point!

San Diego Chargers
TE: I’d like to say RB here, but I’ll probably end up with Mathews as one of my keepers this year.  Cam Newton is my other one, but #2 is coming down to Mathews or Cecil Shorts.  With RBs in shorter supply, I’ll probably stick with the Charger.  That being said, I obviously had him last year, but I also had Rivers and Gates.  I don’t know what I was thinking with so many Chargers, but I won’t be drafting Gates again.  I think he’s well over the hill in NFL terms, and even if he has one last good season, I don’t want any part of taking that chance.

Seattle Seahawks
QB: Tight end would be easy here, but I’m going to change it up.  Even though he beat my Redskins last year in the playoffs, I love Russell Wilson.  But I don’t love him as much as other people apparently do in the fantasy world.  As I've mentioned in other articles, QB is deep this year.  But most experts have Wilson one or two rounds earlier than I’d most likely be drafting him, so for that reason I don’t think I’ll end up with him this year.

San Francisco 49ers
WR: The same goes for Kaepernick as with Wilson, but let’s go WR here.  I guess it’s possible I could draft Boldin, but he doesn't excite me too much.  If he falls far enough, I could end up with him, but I doubt it.  There are a few names on the 49ers roster that I’m just not familiar with, and lots of them are receivers.  I don’t see myself with any of those guys this season.

St. Louis Rams
I'm...not...DRAFTING YOU!
ALL but DEF & K: That sounds harsh, but I would be SHOCKED if I end up with any Rams players on the offensive side of the ball on any fantasy team of mine this year.  OK, maybe Greg the Leg…but kickers don’t count!  Sam Bradford is a perennial sexy sleeper, so he’ll surely go higher than I’d consider taking him.  The RB situation is an unknown right now, so I don’t see myself with any of them.  Tavon Austin will end up going WAY higher than where I have him ranked (someone will be wanting to hit that AJ Green/Julio Jones homerun with Austin, and I just don’t see it yet).  Also, I don’t trust any of the other WRs enough to even be draft-worthy.  I think I have Givens currently ranked, but I might change that in my next update.  Then there’s Jared Cook, who I thought could break out last year.  He now finds himself with a better QB but also with a viable TE opposite him in Lance Kendricks.  I don’t think either will put up big numbers this year, so I doubt I'll draft Cook either.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TE: Tampa Bay has some decent options at most positions, so I can only really say that I won’t be targeting a Buccaneer tight end.  Freeman is in a contract year and bounced back last season, Doug Martin is a top 5 pick, and I’d draft either VJax or Mike Williams. So yeah, sorry Luke Stocker and Tom Crabtree, but I won’t be drafting either of you.

Tennessee Titans
WR: Kenny Britt is in a contract year, but all the motivation in the world can’t keep him healthy and on the field.  There is also a lot of hype around Kendall Wright and how good he's been looking in OTAs and now in camp.  But I just don’t trust Jake Locker to get either of them the ball on the regular.  If Ryan Fitzpatrick wins the starting job in Tennessee, I might chance my tune.  But for now, I doubt I’ll be drafting a Titan WR.

Sign at Redskins Training Camp...just wanted to sneak this in here.
Washington Redskins
DEF: I know I’m a fan and I’m biased.  I know this.  But this offense clicked on all cylinders last year, and I think RGIII can keep that going in 2013.  Alfred Morris runs with purpose.  Garcon could have a big year if he stays healthy, and the same could be said for Fred Davis.  And if the offense is moving the ball like they were last year, Kai Forbath is a good option at kicker.  The only “position” I’m not drafting is the defense.  I like the pressure we can put up front, but the secondary seriously concerns me.  I hope we can put up some points because I have a feeling QBs are going to light our D up again this year.


That's it?  That's all 32?  OK then.  I'm done.  See you next time!

Cheers,
Bart

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