Guys Ready for the Next Level

As I started compiling a list for my next article "Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early, 2013 Edition", I began to realize that all of these players had something in common, and I immediately decided I had to change the name.  I also realized the name was really long, and I wanted to shorten it into something catchier...and maybe a little cooler?  OK.  You got me.  There's nothing cool about the phrase "next level".  Maybe I'll change it again next year.  Suggestions are always welcome.

That kid is BACK..........ON THE ESCALATOR!

I could potentially be drafting any number of these guys I'm listing below a little earlier than most, and in some cases I need to move them up in my rankings accordingly.  But they also fit into this category of players who are primed to make that jump into the next tier of their respective fantasy football positions.  Some of this is based on talent and growth.  Some of it is simply opportunity.  Some is a combination of those things and others.  However you want to describe it, I've created a fake team of players who I believe are ready to make that next step in the fantasy escalator (see below, and comment away if you feel so inclined).

QB: Andrew Luck

I know what you're thinking: this is an easy one.  The guy was last year’s #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, and he had a better than average rookie campaign.  So it's not exactly a stretch to say that Luck is ready to jump right into that top-10 fantasy QB talk, especially since he was in it last year after all was said and done.  The thing is, everyone seems to have Kaepernick and Wilson ahead of Luck on their draft boards.  Most have RGIII ahead of him too.  I'm OK with that (not just because I have those guys ahead of him too, but because all of them are young and have breakout potential).  What I have a problem with is the experts having the likes of Romo and Stafford ahead of Luck.  We know what they can do.  We know they're going to air it out, especially Stafford.  But who are they throwing the ball to?  Stafford has Megatron and not much else.  He'll throw 100 times to Pettigrew and maybe Broyles makes an impact this year, but I don't want to risk my fantasy season on a ton of passing yards and not a lot of TDs from Stafford.  As a Redskins fan, I'm probably never going to draft Romo.  He can put up some fantasy numbers, but we know about what those numbers will be.  I think Luck is worth taking ahead of those two because I think he could have a much bigger year.  I don't think you're looking at a monster year from either Romo or Stafford.  

The Colts added Heyward-Bey to their receiving corps to go along with Wayne and Hilton, and they have a pair of tight ends and RBs who can make plays too.  Luck also has some wheels, which the other two don't really possess.  He had the same number of rushing TDs in his rookie season as Romo has in his entire career (5).  If I'm in a draft and QBs start flying off the board in the middle rounds, I'd consider taking Luck in the first 50 picks.  I realize I have him ranked in the mid-60s, but I think he's valuable enough to take a little earlier than you may be intending.  He firmly belongs in the top-10 QBs for 2013, and I think I'd reach for him to ensure I got one of the young guns who can carry me to a fantasy championship.

I also considered: Andy Dalton
Why he didn't make the team: He has progressed each year, but he's still in a tough division and I'm not sure who he consistently can throw to other than Green.  I like his potential, but I think his head is touching the ceiling until he gets another decent wideout.

RB: Chris Ivory

There are a few running backs who now have the opportunity to be a work horse on their team and rack up solid fantasy numbers in 2013.  Guys like Lamar Miller and David Wilson are getting a lot of love in the fantasy world for being that guy, but Chris Ivory has that same chance with arguably a better offensive line than either of them.  I'm sure the lack of attention when compared to those two has to do injury concerns.  Ivory hasn't played a full season yet in the NFL, but neither have the other guys really.  Miller only played 2 years at "The U", and between college and the NFL only has about 400 carries.  Wilson has roughly 500 career carries when you combine his games on Saturdays and Sundays.  They haven't been injured because they've barely touched the rock!

Ivory is a physical runner who should fit right into the Jets ground and pound scheme.  He may not put up double-digit touchdowns on an offense that will probably only score 13 points a game, but it looks like he'll have every opportunity to do so when they do move the ball.  Mike Goodson could be facing drug and gun charges, so I see him as a bigger threat to society as a whole rather than to Ivory's job.  And I think Bilal Powell would only get considerable minutes if Ivory gets injured.  The new Jet should have every opportunity to be a feature back, and if he can stay healthy I think we could be looking at a Pro Bowler (if the Jets actually get one of those this year).

I also considered: Lamar Miller and David Wilson
Why they didn't make the team: Going too high in drafts for similar risk/reward.

RB: Shane Vereen

Someone needs to fill his tiny shoes

As I'm writing this, I realize I need to move Vereen up in my rankings.  I had him on this list weeks ago, ready to be that middle round sleeper who could end up being a top-25 RB.  His ADP (average draft position) a few weeks ago was around 100, but now it's dropping below 70 (which is where he needs to be on my board).  With all of the departures and question marks in New England, Vereen could be the biggest beneficiary with looks and touches.  Some of this is due to little Danny Woodhead heading out west, but some has to do with the other wide receiver and tight end, um...problems.

The Patriots desperately need someone to step up and be a big playmaker on that squad, and Vereen proved last year that he can do that.  I think his role gets much bigger this year, and he may be lining up at WR as much as he is in the backfield.  No matter where he is on the field, Brady will find a way to get the ball in his hands.  Someone has to get some of those touches that are up for grabs in the Patriot offense, and I look for Vereen to fill that void.

I also considered: Vick Ballard
Why he didn't make the team: The signing of Bradshaw worries me a little to put him on this list, but he could easily find himself back in the featured role if Ahmad has more foot problems.  At worst, Ballard should split time, get some decent yardage, and have a chance at breaking some long TDs when he's in there.

WR: Cecil Shorts

I know, I know.  Typical fantasy football article talking about the 3rd year WR breakout.  But everyone else wants to write about Torrey Smith as the 3rd year WR who will take the next step to elite status.  I wanted to make sure I showed Cecil some love.  This is a guy who had no D1 scholarship offers coming out of high school, went to Mount Union, and earned his playing time for the Jags.  He trained with Larry Fitzgerald this offseason, and he seems like a guy who is hungry for more.

Meanwhile, Torrey Smith just won a Superbowl, cut all his hair off, and got married.  Who do you think is ready to break 1000 yards and get close to double-digit touchdowns?  I'll give you that Smith has Flacco tossing him the pigskin, but history shows that Joe doesn't give anyone on the squad much more than 100 targets in a season.  I mean, he looked Derrick Mason's way a ton in his first couple of years in the league, but since then he has matured and spread the ball around a lot more.  I'll talk more about that later.  Bottom line is this: Cecil Shorts is going to improve no matter who is throwing him the ball.  With Blackmon suspended for the first four games of 2013 and MJD coming back slowly off his foot injury, I look for the Jags to get the ball in the hands of Shorts early and often.  Once he establishes that he is the big time playmaker on the team, he'll keep getting fed all season long.


I also considered: Denarius Moore
Why he didn't make the team: Another 3rd year guy who could break out, but Matt Flynn still a bit of an unknown.  I don't trust a couple of big weeks in December with the Packers nearly 2 years ago.  I'll monitor their chemistry in August, but it's tough to put Moore on this list for now.

WR: Michael Floyd
While people love to talk about the 3rd year WR in fantasy (as noted above), there have also been plenty of first and second year guys making a big splash even sooner than that.  I think this season, that 2nd year player could be former 1st round draft pick Michael Floyd.  And the best part about drafting him is that you can probably get him in the next to last round, assuming the very last round is solely reserved for the lowly kickers.  Larry Fitzgerald and new head coach Bruce Arians have both spoken highly of Floyd this offseason, and all indications are that he's ready to be the clear #2 receiver in Arizona.

Floyd finished last season on a high note, with 14 catches on 22 targets and a touchdown over the last two games.  His QBs in those two games: Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer.  If you're like me and everyone else who doesn't live in the greater Phoenix area, you have never heard of either of those guys.  His QB this season?  Carson Palmer.  Now there's a name you've heard of, right?  Yeah, Carson's still around and he found a new home with the Cardinals.  I think he'll not only boost Fitzgerald's numbers back to 1000+ yards, but I think both veterans will help Floyd along, and he'll end up with 750+ yards and 7 or 8 TDs.  

I also considered: Emmanuel Sanders
Why he didn't make the team: With Mike Wallace gone, he has every opportunity to step into a bigger role in Pittsburgh.  But looking at his career numbers, I just don't think he'll do that.  At least not in a big way.

TE: Dennis Pitta

I told you I'd get back to Flacco and how he spreads the ball around, right?  Well with Boldin's departure from Baltimore, I think Pitta could get the biggest bump in targets (not Torrey Smith).  It's no secret that Flacco and Pitta are best buds both on and off the field.  I can't imagine the exciting times they must have playing paintball and going to McDonald's afterwards.  Talk about your flashy millionaires.  Speaking of which, Pitta is currently playing the 2013 season on a 1-year deal worth about $2 million.  The Ravens might work on extending him in the coming weeks, but maybe Joe will convince his buddy to do what he did: play out your contract, have a huge year, and then REALLY get paid.  And who better to help out than your good pal Joe?

All of this contract and friendship stuff aside, looking at Pitta's numbers, they're definitely trending upwards.  And even if Torrey Smith gets more looks, Pitta will too.  I don't think Tandon Doss can step in and fill Boldin's spot, and Jacoby Jones isn't that type of receiver.  I look for Pitta to get a lot more short passes, and he'll be that go-to possession guy that Flacco will dump to week in and week out.

I also considered: Aaron Hernandez
Why he didn't make the team: Oh right.  He's in jail.

No defense or kicker on this squad.  Sorry folks.  Position players only.  Hope you enjoyed it.

Cheers,
Bart