On this day last year, I did my first feature article (other
than just rankings). So I thought I’d
stay on track and talk about the guys in 2013 who I’ll probably be letting
someone else in my league draft.
Speaking of my draft (and staying on track), we had to move it up a
couple of weeks this year, so I’ll need to be on the ball even more for the
next 3 weeks. Everyone in the league has
a wedding, funeral, or some sort of mitzvah they’re always going to, and
scheduling one of the greatest days of the year becomes harder and harder every
season. I got married myself back in October, so the days of destroying my own house in the name of fantasy football have come to an end (or at least put on hold until we get a bigger house).This year, we stepped it up and
booked a cabin in the woods. And it will be...awesome!
Anyway, after looking at early rankings from ESPN, Yahoo, and others, it
looks like I have several players ranked much lower than the “experts”. So I thought I’d take a few minutes to point
out some of these guys, and maybe this will give you a little insight into my
own early season rankings. I’ll try to
stay on top of things and do my “Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early” some
time next week. Hopefully I can get a
few articles done before it’s time for my own draft, but it’s right around the corner. Let's get to it!
Running Backs
Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell: Last year, Greg Schiano hinted during the preseason that
Doug Martin would be “the guy” for the Bucs in 2012. As of right now, I haven’t heard anything
like that from the Broncos or Steelers in reference to their draft picks this
season. If we do hear such news, my
opinion might change on these two. But
until then, they’re both rookies who will be fighting for playing time on
playoff-caliber teams…especially Denver.
They have a couple of other serviceable RBs in Hillman and Moreno, so I’m
not so sure they give a big workload to Ball this season. Time will tell. As for Bell, I think he’s in a similar
situation. With Dwyer and Redman still
in the mix, I don’t see the rookie getting the lion’s share of the carries. If Ball or Bell are still around where
I have them ranked, I might be taking a shot on them. But with Doug Martin’s success last year and
the experts ranking them so highly before training camp has even
started, I think someone in my league will draft one of these rookies way
higher than I’ll be considering taking them.
DeAngelo Williams: I could just about
regurgitate what I wrote last year in this piece, but I’ll try to change it up
a little bit. For some reason, people
are still ranking Williams in the mid-30s of the RBs. I mean, I get it. If you look at Jonathan Stewart’s ankle
funny, it might snap. But the Panthers
must still believe in the former first rounder because they’re keeping him
around. Also, DeAngelo turned 30 years
old earlier this year. Stewart is still
only 26. Now, I’m not ranking Stewart
very highly either, but I have him right around the mid-30s. I think if any RB in Carolina will put up
some numbers this season, it’ll be The Daily Show. I think at best, Williams is a late-round
handcuff if you end up drafting Stewart in the middle rounds. With Cam running the show, best to avoid
Panther RBs altogether though.
Pierre Thomas: Last year I wrote that Pierre “might get 100
carries and a handful of TDs, but I think Mark Ingram becomes the Thunder to
Sproles's Lightning this year.” Well,
Thomas actually got 105 carries and 2 TDs (one receiving) and a little over 800
yards from scrimmage. The Saints let
Chris Ivory go in the offseason, so I have to think either Ingram or Thomas
gets an even bigger role this season (hint: I think it’s the younger guy). Thomas might still get some burn and get
600-700 total yards and a random TD, but that’s just because he plays with Drew
Brees. Ingram had 4 of his 5 TDs last
year in the last 7 games of the season.
Maybe that’ll translate into double digit touchdowns THIS season. But I think Pierre’s days in New Orleans are
numbered, and I won't be ranking him (much less drafting him).
Wide Receivers
Eric Decker: Last year, Eric Decker nearly doubled his
production from the previous year. Wait
a second. Let me rephrase that. OK…
Last year, Peyton Manning nearly doubled Eric Decker’s production from
the previous year (when he had Tebow throwing at his feet). This season, Peyton has a new toy named Wes,
and the old guys just might leave Decker wondering what happened to his increased production. I think he’ll revert back to numbers closer
to 2011 rather than 2012, but I feel like the experts are still ranking him
based too much on last year’s stats.
James
Jones: Last year I had Jones at the bottom of this list (and I was
wrong). I also had another Packer in
this piece (Jordy), mostly because I didn’t want to chase those TDs from one
year to the next. This year, I’ll put
James Jones here for pretty much the same reason. I mean, there’s no denying he had 14 TDs last
year, but I don’t think he’ll even come close to that this season. Even with Greg Jennings leaving the harsh
winters of Green Bay for the paradise known as Minneapolis, I see Cobb picking
up that slack (not Jones). Cobb scored 7
of his 8 touchdowns in 2012 during the weeks when Jennings missed time due to
injury. I think that trend continues for
Cobb, and I think Finley will have a bounce-back year as well. Both of those factors will contribute to
Jones failing to reach double digit TDs in 2013.
A few more quick ones…
DeSean Jackson and Josh Gordon: I’m putting these two in
the same category because I think they’re both idiots. Maybe for different reasons, but idiots
nonetheless. Yes, both have crazy athletic
ability. But with 2 cent brains, I don’t want either on my fantasy team.
Greg Little: Speaking of the Browns, if I’m not drafting
Gordon, then I’m definitely not drafting any other WR who plays in Cleveland.
Malcom Floyd: Philip Rivers appears to be on the decline,
and if I were to draft a receiver in San Diego, I’d take Alexander or Vincent Brown
over Floyd. I’m not drafting SD’s 4th
option after those two (and Gates).
Santonio Holmes: Seriously? I’m not drafting a Jets WR. But if I did, it wouldn’t be Holmes. It will never be Holmes...
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick: I
talked about guys like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco in this piece last year. I warned you about taking boring guys like
that because they’re not going to win you a fantasy championship (and there
would be QBs just as good on the waiver wire, so don’t even waste a pick on
them). I said you should take a risk on
someone like Andrew Luck or RGIII instead.
Sounds like pretty good advice for 2012.
Well for 2013, I’m doing a complete 360 with young guns Wilson and
Kaepernick. I’m not saying you shouldn’t
draft these guys. I’m sure they’ll have
solid seasons. They may even finish in
the top-10 fantasy QBs. Let me say that
again: They may even finish in the
top-10 fantasy QBs. In case you couldn’t
tell, I’m not 100% confident they’ll do that.
After my top 5 or 6 ranked QBs, I have a lot of guys ranked about the
same: Kaepernick, RGIII, Wilson, Luck, Romo, and Stafford. I even think a guy like Eli Manning could
bounce back and sneak inside the top-10 this year. The fact is, Wilson and Kaepernick are going
way too early with the middle round QBs who will be available. Maybe one of those younger guys will help you
win your league this year, but I think the price is too high because I think
there are plenty of others who can do that who are getting drafted a little
later.
Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph: Last year I was pretty wrong in this article
about tight ends (see Tony Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent Owen Daniels). We’ll see if I can redeem myself with these
picks. I drafted Antonio Gates last
year, so I feel like I’m somewhat of an expert on underperforming tight
ends. I also had Kyle Rudolph for a good
portion of last year (since Gates was so horrible, I had to do something). While Rudolph had three or four solid games
for me during the stretch I owned him, he also had just as many (if not more)
where he just didn’t show up. Because of
that, I can’t see drafting Rudolph as highly as he’s being ranked by
others. I think after Jimmy Graham,
there are a lot of question marks at the tight end position. I have Rudolph outside of my top-10 TEs, so
there’s virtually no way I’ll end up with him this year.
Jermaine Gresham: This is a guy I liked in
2012, but I guess the Bengals didn’t like him that much. They drafted Tyler Eifert in the first round
of this year’s draft, and I’m sure they did that for a reason. I don’t think Eifert is going to take over
right away, but he’s going to cut into Gresham’s targets for sure. If I end up waiting on a tight end, I’m
taking Fred Davis or Brandon Pettigrew before I look at a Bengals tight end
this year.
I’m not going to give you a Defense…but I’ll give you a kicker!
Connor Barth: Oh kickers: the red-headed stepchildren of
fantasy football. If anyone in your
league takes a kicker before the last round, feel free to ridicule them at no
end. The only reason I mention one here
is because inevitably in some league…somewhere…someONE will draft Connor
Barth. Don’t be that guy. I’ve said this before, but don’t spend too
much time thinking about which kicker to take anyway. You’re going to
waive him when his bye week comes, and predicting kicker fantasy points from
week to week (or even year to year) is like a drunk toddler throwing darts at…something. I don’t know.
Just go with it. Bottom line is
this: Barth tore his right Achilles tendon and is done for the year, but that
doesn’t mean every fantasy football magazine that was written in June and July
will have that updated because it just happened in the past week. Yes, kids.
Some people still get fantasy football magazines. They’re called old people and they don’t know
what a blog is and the internet frustrates and confuses them. If you’re one of those old people with a
magazine, pay attention to something more current than a summer-released
fantasy football article about kickers and don’t be that guy drafting
Barth. You’ll look like a damn fool.
Cheers,
Bart
No comments:
Post a Comment