Thursday, August 2, 2012

Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early

Training camps are underway, and the Hall of Fame Game is this Sunday….THIS SUNDAY!  Maybe I’m getting a little too amped for a contest that will feature starters for one series and then guys like Shane Falco and Clifford Franklin for the rest of the game, but football is back and I’m pretty damn excited.  I thought about updating my rankings again, but I’ll wait a little longer before I shuffle some guys around (maybe next week, but possibly as early as tomorrow, who knows?).  For now, I’ll go ahead and give you a few guys I’m really high on this year.  Again, I’m comparing my rankings to expert rankings that are out there, and yes it’s very early.  Also, like my “Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft”, some of these are just gut feel.  I don’t feel the need to back this stuff up with numbers because no one’s really reading this anyway, and I’m going to back it up with a fantasy championship.  How about that?  I’m going a little heavy on the WRs here, so let’s start with them first this time.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall:  Right now I have him ranked as my #6 WR, but I’m thinking of moving him up a notch or two.  I just have a feeling about him getting back together with JC (that’s Jay Cutler, not any other famous “JC” you might be thinking of).  The more I think about taking someone like Andre3000 or Roddie White ahead of him, the more I think I would reach a round early for Marshall.  AJ has hurt me with injuries in the past, and he already has a groin strain about 30 seconds into practices.  With Julio Jones emerging in Atlanta, I wonder if Roddie will have a down year (at least by his standards).

Demaryius Thomas: A lot of this hinges on Peyton’s health, and I’ve already seen a couple of articles out there about how Eric Decker and Manning have great chemistry going.  But Thomas has as much talent in his little finger as Decker has in, well, let’s say both hands put together.  I don’t want to get crazy with the analogy.  I think Decker will also reap the benefits of the “new” QB in town (new like that ’01 Accord you just bought with 150,000 miles on it), but I think Thomas is worth the risk because the reward could be..........cheesy joke alert……….a MILE HIGH!

Brandon Lloyd: Tom Brady + Josh McDaniels – Redskins Jersey = Fantasy Gold.  I realize he hasn’t been a Redskin in a while, but I thought I’d throw that in there to make myself a little more miserable of that fact.  The first part of the equation is what I’m looking at, and if Lloyd could have that 2010 Pro Bowl season with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow throwing the ball over his head and at his feet, think of what he could do with Brady zipping it to him on a frozen rope.   I realize the Pats have a lot of weapons, and Brady will spread it around to Welker and the tight ends, but I think Lloyd will be the biggest beneficiery of them all and will have a monster year.  Sadly, I don’t think Lloyd will be available in my keeper league because I’m pretty sure the champ will be keeping him and Gronk.  Not a bad start to a lineup that could potentially 3-peat.  (Dear League, Don’t Trade With Bird!!!)

Lance Moore: I’ve always liked watching this guy play, but I don’t think I’ve ever had him on a fantasy team.  His last two seasons have been solid but nothing to write home about.  [Side Note: I don’t know why you’d be writing a letter home to someone about Lance Moore’s play from 2010-2011 anyway.  That’s just weird.]  What I like about this year is that Meachem is gone, and that makes Lance Moore the #2 wideout on the depth chart.  Yeah, Devery Henderson is still around, but he hasn’t exactly been a touchdown machine.  I think Lance Moore will have a season more like 2008 when he had close to 1000 yards and pulled in 10 TDs.

Greg Little: This guy is a beast, but he’s still a bit raw.  He had a solid rookie campaign as far as receptions and yards, but only two touchdowns to his name.  For what it’s worth, those 2 TDs did come in the last five games he played.  I have to think that he and Colt McCoy developed a connection as the season progressed, and if Colt is the guy the Browns go with, then I like Little to improve on his rookie numbers.  If Colt isn’t the guy (and he probably won’t be), I still like Little to have a better year.  I think Brandon Weeden could have a season similar to Andy Dalton's in 2011.  I realize that could be a stretch because it is the Browns, but I think if Weeden is at the helm, it could only improve Little’s value.  It’s a bit of a shot in the dark, but we’re talking about later rounds so you should be able to get him with a huge discount.


Running Backs

James Starks:  Maybe no one noticed, but Ryan Grant is no longer a Packer.  I realize that Kuhn will vulture some TDs, and it’ll sound like all of Green Bay is booing the guy, but Starks is in line to be THE guy in Green Bay.  OK.  Maybe not THE guy (Aaron Rodgers), but THE running back.  The ESPN ADP right now is 95, and I currently have him ranked 66th. This guy’s getting drafted well after guys like Ben Tate, Michael Bush, and CJ Spiller…all of whom are currently in secondary roles.  More on CJ Spiller right about…now.

CJ Spiller: Fred Jackson turned 31 earlier this year, so he’s well over the hill when it comes to running backs.  Oh and he’s also coming off a broken leg.  While Jackson was performing well before his Week 11 injury, Spiller also did quite well in his absence.  When I see Spiller, all I can think about is his senior season at Clemson.  That dude was a monster.  I think the Bills realize that Spiller is the future, and I also think he becomes the lead guy by their Week 8 Bye.  In a keeper league, there is a lot of potential value with Spiller.

Mark Ingram:  I’ve already hinted at my disdain for Pierre Thomas, and I think Ingram steps into his shoes this year.  I also have a feeling that Sproles will get fewer carries (not touches, carries).  Sproles will still be in the backfield often and get lots of receiving yards, but I think inside the 20 will be Ingram territory this season.  Call it a hunch (because that’s what it is), but I think this is the year to grab Ingram and stash him away for a couple more in a keeper league like ours.

Future Detroit RB Cedric Benson or Ryant Grant:  I’m going off the grid here with a prediction.  Currently these guys are trying to workout for whoever they can, and I don’t think the Lions are one of those teams…yet.  Jahvid Best still isn’t cleared to participate in training camp due to his concussion symptoms, and there seems to be a lot of worry in Motown about when or if he’ll return.  Yeah, that doesn’t sound good.  Mikel Leshoure is already dealing with a hamstring injury in camp, and he’s suspended for the first couple of games anyway due to the wacky tobaccky (which he also got in trouble for in college).  Well that doesn't sound too good either!  I’m pretty sure that leaves Kevin Smith, who has played a total of 13 games combined in the last two seasons.  If Smith can stay healthy, he probably would be in line to benefit the most from this situation, but I think the Lions will smarten up and sign either Benson or Grant.  Stay tuned because if that happens, I think one of them could find themselves in a tasty fantasy situation.


Tight Ends

Antonio Gates:  I think he stays healthy this year, and VJax is gone.  Hell, Tolbert is gone.  If Mathews can’t get it done on the goal line, who are they going to turn to?  Rivers is going to toss the rock up to Gates, and he’ll come down with it with someone 8 inches shorter trying to outjump him.  Gronk and Graham are going to be keepers in our league, so I think Gates is the best option available.  He’s a prime candidate for a guy who I might reach a round early to get.  Then again, someone else could very easily do the same thing.

Jason Witten:  If someone grabs Gates early in our draft, I might reach for Witten.  No one has been more consistant over the last 5-7 seasons, and the guy hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year.  With Dez Bryant acting a fool, I think Romo’s trust stays with his tight end and the two connect for 1000 yards and 8 TDs.  If I have to grab him a round early to get those numbers, I might do it.

Jared Cook:  So if my plan fails and I don’t get Witten or Gates, Cook is my guy.  I think Locker will win the starting quarterback job in Tennesee, possibly even for Week 1.  I’m not sure if you saw Cook’s numbers the last three games of the season, but they were pretty good (and Locker was the QB).  Everything I hear about this guy makes him sound more athletic than Graham and Gronk combined, and while that may be a bit of an exaggeration, I’m going to try to snatch him up if I miss out on my first two targets.  I think Cook has the best chance to round out the top 5 fantasy TEs when it’s all said and done this year.


If someone takes Gates, Witten, and Cook way earlier than they should, then I guess I won't be doing a fantasy football blog next year.  Nah, I probably will.  I'm not including QBs, DEF, or (*chuckle*) K in this list because I just don't think I have any that I'll reach for.  If you consider taking either Rodgers, Brady, or Brees in the first round as a reach, then Go-Go-Gadget Arms.  I'm going to try to get one of those guys.  Defense and kickers are going to be reserved for the last two rounds (at least for me), so I don't have much to say about them.  No reaching here.

Keep a lookout for updated rankings in the days to come.

Cheers,
Bart


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