2012 Fantasy Redeem Team

Tell me if this story sounds familiar:

You draft a guy in the first couple of rounds, and you're banking on his production to help carry your team to a fantasy football championship.  Weeks go by and you still have him in your lineup, but he's giving you inconsistency (let's say anywhere from 1 to 8 fantasy points per week).  You don't lose faith.  He drops a negative number on you in Week 6, and you want to waive him, but you can't bring yourself to it.  Maybe you're so frustrated that you do waive him.  Maybe you take out your frustration on your significant other or your labradoodle.  Maybe you try to trade this fantasy bust, but no one wants him.  Someone offers you a kicker for him straight up as a counter offer.  Salt in the wound.  

Fantasy football can present some tough pills to swallow, but let's try to find a silver lining here.  Some of those guys who were frustrating in 2011 still have value, and now you can get most of them at a discount (and anyone who knows me knows that I looooooove a good discount).  I'm going to give you a team who is ready to atone for their sins: my 2012 Fantasy Redeem Team.  This doesn’t really work for defenses and kickers, but I'll give you a full fantasy squad other than that.  I'm ignoring players who missed a considerable amount of time last year due to injury, so you won't find Peyton Manning or Jamaal Charles starting on this fantasy-fantasy team.  What I am creating is a team of guys who had a pretty high 2011 ADP versus how they finished the season.  This could also be seen as a 2011 Hindsight All-Hype Team.

Below you'll find each player's 2011 stats, my bold projected 2012 stats for them, 2011 ADP vs. 2012 ADP (roughly, based on yahoo and espn combined), and where I have each ranked in my personal rankings.  Get ready to get overloaded with numbers.

QB: Josh Freeman

2011 Stats: 15 GP, 3592 Pass Yds, 16 Pass TDs, 22 INTs; 238 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 3800 Pass Yds, 27 Pass TDs, 15 INTs; 300 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TDs

2011 ADP: 75; 2012 ADP: 125; My rank: 117

I was all set to start this article with Michael Vick, a consensus first round pick in 2011.  But then I realized I had a hard time projecting him to bounce back this season, especially since he's already been dinged up twice (two different injuries in two preseason games).  I'm not sure he's built to play even 14 or 15 games anymore.  On the other hand, Josh Freeman is a beast and ready for a big year.  The Bucs added Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark in the offseason, and they recently signed Jordan Shipley to add to the mix as well.  After an improved second year, Freeman was drafted pretty highly in 2011 fantasy drafts, but fumbles and interceptions plagued him throughout the year.  He also didn't have the weapons in the receiving corps that he now has, not to mention a guy like Doug Martin who could take some pressure off with the running game.  Tampa Bay could be improved all around this year, and Josh Freeman is a guy who people aren't talking about like they were a season ago.  I currently have him ranked around where he's being drafted in leagues, but that's a bargain this late.  If I miss out on a QB in the first couple rounds of my draft, he'll creep up into my top-100.

RB: Chris Johnson

2011 Stats: 16 GP, 1047 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs; 418 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1500 Rush Yds, 10 Rush TDs; 450 Rec Yds, 2 TDs

2011 ADP: 8; 2012 ADP: 9; My rank: 8

One look at those rankings, and I quickly realize that Johnson isn't coming at a discount this season.  People are still drafting him based on the results they've seen and the potential to get back to those numbers.  I am also one of those people.  I think Jake Locker could take away from some of CJ's rushing stats, and to a lesser extent whoever the #2 running back ends up being in Tennessee.  But assuming Johnson gets his 20-25 touches a game, I think he ends up with first round fantasy numbers once again.

RB: Peyton Hillis

2011 Stats: 10 GP, 587 Rush Yds, 3 TDs; 130 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rush Yds, 11 Rush TDs; 250 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD

2011 ADP: 25; 2012 ADP: 90; My rank: 71

Mr. Madden Curse himself, Hillis came with a hefty price tag in 2011.  I'm sure many fantasy owners were drafting him in the 2nd round, and boy were they disappointed.  This season, you can get him much later now that he's not expected to be the feature back in Kansas City.  But keep in mind the history of running backs in their first season back after tearing their ACLs (hint: it's not great).  Jamaal Charles looks to be fine, but Hillis will still get a big workload.  Also remember that Thomas Jones had 245 carries for 896 yards and 6 TDs in 2010 (when Charles had his breakout season), and if for some reason Charles isn't 100% healthy, Hillis could be the feature guy no problem.

WR: Reggie Wayne

2011 Stats: 16 GP, 960 Rec Yds, 4 Rec TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1050 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs

2011 ADP: 30; 2012 ADP: 107; My rank: 79

Everyone who drafted any Colt last year wishes Peyton Manning could've figured out he was sitting out the entire season before they had their fantasy draft.  Geez, Peyton.  Have a heart.  Had we all known that Curtis Painter, Kerry Collins, and Dan Orlovsky would be throwing to Reggie, his ADP probably would've fallen into the 40s or 50s (but surely not outside the top-100, right?!?).   If this motley crew was still battling for the starting QB role in Indy, I wouldn't be including Wayne on the Redeem Team.  But Andrew Luck isn't Curtis Painter, and I think Reggie Wayne still has something left in the tank.  He will turn 34 in November, but we've seen solid productivity from receivers in their mid-30s before.  Guys like Jimmy Smith and Terrell Owens have produced 1000YD/10TD seasons at this age, and I don't see why Wayne can't do it too.  There are plenty of examples on the flipside too, including his former teammate Marvin Harrison, who really fell off around age 34.  I don't know if he'll haul in 10 TDs with the rookie quarterback, but I think the yards will be there.  Luck will have to throw to somebody.

WR: Brandon Lloyd

2011 Stats: 15 GP (4 in Denver and 11 in STL), 966 Rec Yds, 5 Rec TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1250 Rec Yds, 10 Rec TDs

2011 ADP: 45; 2012 ADP: 50; My rank: 32

After his breakout 2010 season in Denver with 1448 yards and 11 TDs, people were no longer sleeping on Brandon Lloyd in 2011.  I don't think too many people were going nuts and over-drafting the journeyman, but there was reason to get excited.  After getting traded to St. Louis, there was less reason for excitement.  But now he's landed in New England, and so the pendulum swings back the other way again.  You see, the Patriots have this quarterback named Tom Brady (you might want to write that down).  He's pretty good.  I've written about this at length elsewhere, so I won't do it again.  Brady will spread it around, but Lloyd will get his.

TE: Antonio Gates

2011 Stats: 13 GP, 778 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rec Yds, 11 Rec TDs

2011 ADP: 35; 2012 ADP: 46; My rank: 41

If you look at his numbers from last year, you wouldn't think Gates was that big of a disappointment.  But if you owned him in any league, you know that he was.  He was drafted as the top tight end in most leagues (side note: Dallas Clark was up there too...ouch).  If you were using a second, third, or even fourth round draft pick on a tight end, you were expecting 1000 yards and 10 TDs.  Some people got that (and then some) much later out of Graham and Gronk, so it's safe to say that Gates was a let down.  This year, he's healthy and ready for redemption.  Touchdowns are hard to predict for any player, but I think with Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert leaving town, Gates will be that reliable guy who Rivers finds often when they're inside the 20.  I'm looking for him to get close to 1000 yards and definitely double-digit TDs, and now that you can get him a round later than last year, I think it's worth it.

FLEX: Mike Williams

2011 Stats: 16 GP, 771 Rec Yds, 3 Rec TDs

My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1025 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs

2011 ADP: 40; 2012 ADP: 150; My rank: 95

Here's a guy who was getting drafted way too high in 2011, but now he is falling way too low in 2012 drafts.  I can't see how he is outside of the top 100.  Which WRs are getting picked ahead of him?  Michael Crabtree?  Laurent Robinson?  I'm sorry, but that's just crazy to me.  Williams had a bit of a sophomore slump, but his QB (and the rest of his team) struggled a bit as well.  I'm looking for Freeman to help his team bounce back this year, and I think that means bigger numbers once again for his receivers.  The addition of Vincent Jackson might mean fewer targets for Williams, but the extra attention on VJax might help his value more than it hurts it.  This is to be determined, but if I'm going to project 27 passing touchdowns for Josh Freeman, then some of those are going to Mike Williams.  Maybe Jackson gets 10 or more TDs, but I think 7 is a reasonable number for Williams, and I think he finally breaks the 1000 yard mark in his third year in the league.  If you draft a defense before a guy like Mike Williams, you're making a huge mistake.

Have a good week, and keep an eye on those third preseason games: lots of starters getting lots of rep!

Cheers,
Bart