Real Football Predictions for 2017

Every year before the first game of the NFL season, I like to take a few minutes to do my own simulation of every game on the schedule and use that to predict division winners, conference champs, and who's taking home the Lombardi trophy.

It usually doesn't go so well...

But whatever.  It's kind of fun.

As it turns out, the NFL isn't as predictable as you may think.  While I did have the Patriots in the Superbowl last year, I also picked the Cardinals to beat them in "the big game".  The only problem was, Arizona failed to even get to the postseason.  Hell, I didn't even have Matt Ryan taking the Falcons to the playoffs.  Then again, not many people predicted they'd go as far as they did last year. 

Let's see what Bart's prediction machine spits out in 2017...

AFC East		AFC North		AFC South		AFC West
NE	13-3	CIN	8-8	HOU	8-8	KC	10-6
BUF	6-10	PIT	12-4	IND	6-10	DEN	9-7
NYJ	3-13	BAL	10-6	JAX	6-10	OAK	11-5
MIA	8-8	CLE	3-13	TEN	9-7	LAC	5-11
NFC East		NFC North		NFC South		NFC West
WAS	7-9	GB	11-5	CAR	7-9	ARI	9-7
NYG	10-6	MIN	9-7	NO	7-9	SEA	12-4
DAL	7-9	DET	8-8	ATL	9-7	LAR	5-11
PHI	9-7	CHI	5-11	TB	8-8	SF	6-10

Here is some commentary on my predicted standings and one BOLD prediction for each division:

AFC East: The Patriots easily win the division, and the Jets are terrible.  So kind of like last year, except worse.  I don't think anyone other than New England is doing damage in this division until Brady retires, and I don't see Cutler and the Dolphins making the playoffs this year.  The Jets are so bad, they even beat out the Browns for the Sam Darnold sweepstakes. 
BOLD prediction: Gronk stays relatively healthy, but Dwayne Allen also manages to finish as a top-10 fantasy TE (currently ranked well outside of top-25 fantasy TEs on most sites).

AFC North: The Steelers win the division again, but the Ravens get back to the playoffs with a defense that makes Baltimore fans start to think of the Ray Lewis and Ed Reed years.  The Bengals miss the playoffs for the second year in a row, and...
BOLD prediction: Marvin Lewis loses his job after 15 seasons and ZERO PLAYOFF WINS!

AFC South: This division always feels wide open, mostly due to the mediocrity that lies within it.  I think the division winner will have no more than 9 wins, and this year, I think it'll be the Titans.  The Jags haven't had more than 5 wins since 2010, but this year it feels like they'll get 6!
BOLD prediction: Andrew Luck struggles to stay healthy, and the Colts finish last in the division. Yes, I'm saying Jacksonville will have the same or better record than Indy.

AFC West: Oakland edges out KC for the division this year, but both easily make the playoffs.  Denver misses the postseason in back to back years following their Superbowl win, and...
BOLD prediction:  The Broncos sign Sam Bradford in the offseason after failing to pry Jimmy Garoppolo away from the Patriots.

NFC East: The G-Men take the division and the Eagles get a Wild Card spot.  I have low expectations for my Redskins in what will probably be the last year for Kirk Cousins in Washington.  :(

BOLD prediction: Dallas falls back to earth and misses the playoffs after having the 2nd best record in the NFL in 2016 (13-3).  In fact, I say they'll finish LAST in the division.  Dak has a bit of a sophomore slump, and Zeke returns after the suspension to find his O-line isn't quite what it was in his rookie year.

NFC North: Unless Aaron Rodgers misses significant time due to an injury, I don't see how you can pick against the Packers in this division.  I think the Vikings and Lions are just average enough to miss the playoffs, and the Bears will take a slight step forward from last year's 3-13 season.
BOLD prediction: I decide not to keep Ty Montgomery over Demaryius Thomas in my fantasy league, and HE decides to score more fantasy points than Jordan Howard (who I am keeping).  Yes, this is somewhat of a reverse jinx, but I also think it's within the realm of possibility.

NFC South: Lots of experts have picked the Bucs to make the playoffs, but they have a really tough schedule.  In fact, all of the NFC South faces tough opponents this year (oh right...they all basically have the same schedules).  I think the winner of this division will be 9-7, and Atlanta will regress.  However, I think they'll be that 9-7 team and squeak into the playoffs.

BOLD prediction: Drew Brees throws for his lowest total passing yards in a season since 2010 and is not a top-5 fantasy QB.

NFC West: As I mentioned above, I picked the Cardinals to go pretty far last year, and they let me down.  I'm doubling down and have them making the playoffs this season - as a Wild Card team, since I think the Seahawks will win this division.

BOLD prediction: The 49ers lead the NFC in team rushing yards and end up with a respectable 6 wins in their first season under Kyle Shannahan.

So here's what I'm predicting for 2017:

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Oakland Raiders

AFC Wild Card1: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Wild Card2: Baltimore Ravens

[Patriots over Raiders in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: New York Giants

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wild Card1: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC Wild Card2: Arizona Cardinals 

[Packers over Seahawks in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Patriots over Packers

Ugh.  Just retire already, Brady!



Cheers,

Bart