Thursday, August 10, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Rankings v4

Image result for redskins ravensWhat better to way to kickoff the preseason than with Ravens/Redskins tonight?

OK.  So there was also the Hall of Fame Game last week...and a game last night.  But you know what?  I'm just going to focus on my favorite team for a minute, OK?  I just hope no one gets injured in this meaningless scrimmage.

Speaking of injuries, here are some of the big ones that are impacting my rankings already...

I'll go ahead and start with the Ravens, who once again are dealing with a ton of season-ending injuries before the season even starts.  Kenneth Dixon tore his meniscus and is done for the year.  That makes Baltimore's backfield a little more straightforward for fantasy owners with Woodhead and West as the main options (they also signed Bobby Rainey for depth, but I don't see him as competition for either of those guys if they're healthy).

Will Fuller broke his collarbone and will likely miss a few regular season games.  I've moved him all the way down to the watch list, as I doubt I'll be drafting him unless he's somehow ready for Week 1.  I don't mind waiting a couple of weeks on an injured or suspended star player in fantasy, but I'm not going to waste my time on a second year flyer who needs all of the reps he can get.

Devontae Booker will miss a couple of months with a wrist injury, which could open the door for Jamaal Charles to grab the backup job if he's actually healthy.  

Ryan Tannehill is (likely) done for the year.  So is rookie Mike Williams (again, likely).  Quincy Enunwa IS done for the year though.  Here are the implications of each in a few words:

Re: Tannehill - Hellooooooo Jay Cutler! (kidding - don't draft Cutler in fantasy...ever)

Re: Mike Williams - Hellooooooo Tyrell Williams! (not kidding - he's totally draftable)

Re: Quincy Enunwa - Hellooooooo (*crickets chirping*)...


I'm sure we'll see more injuries in the next few weeks, but what about some other storylines coming out of training camps?

As a Redskins fan, I'm very interested in the position battle between Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine, but most people will be focusing on other rookie RBs (mainly Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffery, and Dalvin Cook).  But don't sleep on guys like Jamaal Williams or Kareem Hunt.  I'm considering holding on to Ty Montgomery as my #2 keeper this year, so I'm paying close attention to the Packer RBs in training camp.  Right now, Jamaal looks to be the clear cut #2 behind Montgomery, and this could even look like a committee by Week 1.  Kareem Hunt's ADP has risen in the last couple of months with people assuming he'll have a big role with Spencer Ware in KC.  I'm not so sure, but some are saying he could even overtake Ware and be the lead back.  Time will tell, but clearly there are several rookie RBs to monitor during the preseason.

What about rookie WRs?  Personally, I don't think many will have much value in their first year in the league.  Corey Davis is the most likely to have an instant impact, but his ADP is a bit rich for my blood.  However, Kenny Golladay is a name I'm considering in the last round of my draft, as he could easily grab the #3 WR spot in Detroit.  The Lions ran the ball a lot more in the second half of the 2016 season, but they're not going to sign Matt Stafford to a huge deal just to let him hand the ball off (as of this writing there is no contract extension, but Stafford is expected to become the highest paid QB in the league pretty much any day now).  Also, Marvin Jones is the type of guy who has a couple of big games each season and then falls off the face of the earth for the other 14.  I wonder if Golladay could even be a better complement to Golden Tate in this offense and be the #2 WR by the end of the year...?

As for non-rookie position battles, I think Mark Ingram versus Adrian Peterson is an interesting one to watch as the preseason unfolds.  I also think Paul Perkins versus everyone else in the Giant backfield is worth mentioning as well.  Will a healthy Shane Vereen cut significantly into his touches?  Will Shaun Draughn be a goal line vulture?  Will Wayne Gallman be in the mix?

I think one position battle that is seriously under the radar is the Ravens starting tight end competition.  Dennis Pitta had 121 targets last season, which was third most at the TE position after Kyle Rudolph and Greg Olsen.  You wouldn't have known Pitta had so many targets because he didn't even finish as a top-15 fantasy TE, but someone is going to get those targets this year.  You could argue that Maclin will get most of them working in the slot, but Flacco likes throwing to his tight end.  Crockett Gillmore was lost for the season with a knee injury, so he's off the table.  Will the starter be Ben Watson?  Can he stay healthy this year?  The dude is 36 years old and coming off a season-ending Achilles injury.  What about Larry Donnell who they signed during training camp?  Will they still possibly sign Gary Barnidge?  Maxx Williams is coming off knee surgery, but he could be a factor as well.  If one of these guys emerges as the clear #1 TE in Baltimore, they could end up as a top-10 fantasy option this year.  I added a couple of them to the watch list, but keep an eye on this situation.

But enough jibber jabber, right?  Let's get to the rankings!  These will change quite a bit between now and Week 1 of the regular season, so I'll try to get at least one more update out before then.

Cheers,
Bart


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. David Johnson
3. Antonio Brown 
4. Julio Jones
5. Mike Evans
6. Odell Beckham, Jr.
7. Ezekiel Elliott
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Devonta Freeman: The new contract actually bumps him up a few spots for me. 
10. A.J. Green 
11. Michael Thomas 
12. Jordy Nelson
13. T.Y. Hilton 
14. Jay Ajayi: Moved him and Howard down to this RB tier.
15. Jordan Howard
16. Melvin Gordon 
17. DeMarco Murray
18. Todd Gurley
19. Carlos Hyde  
20. Aaron Rodgers 
21. Doug Baldwin
22. Amari Cooper
23. Dez Bryant
24. DeAndre Hopkins
25. Sammy Watkins
26. Tom Brady
27. Rob Gronkowski
28. Leonard Fournette: Lowering a bit because the Jags may have trouble finding the endzone.
29. Lamar Miller
30. Isaiah Crowell
31. Brandin Cooks
32. Demaryius Thomas 
33. Davante Adams  
34. Keenan Allen: With Mike Williams (potentially) out for the season, Keenan up quite a bit. 
35. Allen Robinson: Moved him back up to this WR tier.  Target monster.  
36. Travis Kelce
37. Drew Brees
38. Ty Montgomery: His hype is growing, and he's moving back up for me. Might need to be higher.
39. Christian McCaffery: His hype might be getting out of control, but he's up a bit too.
40. Marshawn Lynch: I'm concerned he won't be a true workhorse, so I lowered to this RB tier.
41. Terrelle Pryor: Watching him in training camp has me moving him up. I can't help it. 
42. Alshon Jeffery
43. Michael Crabtree
44. Dalvin Cook
45. Joe Mixon
46. Paul Perkins
47. CJ Anderson
48. Ameer Abdullah
49. Spencer Ware
50. Frank Gore  
51. Greg Olsen
52. Jordan Reed: Down to this tier with Olsen. Toe injury a reminder of his health concerns.
53. Jimmy Graham: Contract year and was a top-5 TE last year. Moving up to this tier.
54. Martavis Bryant: Officially reinstated and continuing to move up my rankings. 
55. Tyreek Hill  
56. Larry Fitzgerald: Tons of targets the last two seasons. Maybe no keeper value, but up anyway.
57. Donte Moncrief 
58. Andrew Luck: Down to this QB tier. Talk of him starting the season on PUP list...
59. Russell Wilson
60. Matt Ryan
61. Bilal Powell: Up slightly. Someone will score fantasy points for the Jets, and I think it's him.
62. LeGarrette Blount: I'm assuming Ryan Mathews is done. I think I had Blount a bit low.
63. Danny Woodhead: Bumped him up even more with Dixon out for the year. 
64. Golden Tate
65. Kelvin Benjamin  
66. Jarvis Landry: Down to this WR tier with the Tannehill injury.  
67. Jamison Crowder  
68. Tyrell Williams: Moved him up nearly 100 spots with the Mike Williams news.  
69. Brandon Marshall
70. Adrian Peterson
71. Terrance West: Well into my top-100 with Dixon now lost for the year. 
72. Mark Ingram 
73. Tevin Coleman: Will new OC use Coleman like Kyle Shanahan did? Down a couple of RB tiers.
74. Stefon Diggs 
75. Julian Edelman
76. Emmanuel Sanders: With Demaryius likely my #2 keeper, lowering Sanders. Don't want both.
77. Pierre Garcon 
78. Willie Snead 
79. John Brown
80. Corey Davis  
81. Tyler Eifert  
82. Kyle Rudolph: Felt the need to move him well into my top-100. Bradford's go-to guy.  
83. Eddie Lacy: Down even more. Could be mostly a goal line back in a RBBC.
84. Rob Kelley 
85. Doug Martin
86. Jonathan Stewart 
87. Mike Gillislee: He'll find the endzone a lot. I had him too low, even with my bye week conflict.
88. Matt Forte: Down more. I don't trust him to score TDs for a team I'm expecting to be terrible. 
89. C.J. Prosise: Up slightly in this RB tier. I like his upside and keeper potential.   
90. Theo Riddick
91. Derrick Henry
92. Derek Carr: Moved him and Cousins down to this QB tier.    
93. Kirk Cousins 
94. Marcus Mariota  
95. Jameis Winston 
96. Dak Prescott 
97. Cam Newton: I keep lowering Cam. I just don't trust him as a fantasy QB anymore.  
98. Jeremy Maclin
99. DeVante Parker
100. Eric Decker: Down a WR tier. He's coming off a serious injury, and that worries me.
101. Martellus Bennett 
102. Hunter Henry: Moved up here with Bennett. I think Gates could break TD record and retire. 
103. Latavius Murray
104. Thomas Rawls: Working as "clear #1 RB" in camp? Not sure I believe it, but he's up slightly.
105. Jeremy Hill: There's also talk of him being "the #1 RB all year". Up a bit too. 
106. Duke Johnson 
107. Jamaal Williams
108. Kareem Hunt  
109. Samaje Perine: As I'm watching this game, he looks like a rookie.  Down a RB tier. 
110. Darren Sproles 
111. Giovani Bernard 
112. Jonathan Williams: Moved up to this RB tier. More than just a handcuff to McCoy.
113. Mike Wallace 
114. Randall Cobb
115. Corey Coleman: Down a WR tier. I like the potential, but still a lot of question marks. 
116. Cameron Meredith: Lowered slightly. I don't want too many Bears on my fantasy squad.
117. DeSean Jackson: He keeps sliding down my list. I just don't want him on my team either.
118. Tyrod Taylor: Up to the top of this QB tier. Got another weapon in Boldin. Likely top-10 QB.
119. Philip Rivers: Moved him down to this QB tier with Stafford and Big Ben (and now Tyrod).
120. Matthew Stafford 
121. Ben Roethlisberger 
122. Delanie Walker
123. Jack Doyle
124. Eric Ebron
125. Zach Ertz: Moved lower in this TE tier. Scored 25% of his FPs in Week 17 last year.   
126. Jacquizz Rodgers: Moved up a tier. Will get work at least until Martin's back Week 4.  
127. Jamaal Charles: With Booker missing time, he could get some early work. Up.
128. Jalen Richard  
129. Charles Sims  
130. Devin Funchess 
131. Kenny Britt: Down a WR tier. Tough to trust a Browns WR.
132. Rishard Matthews: I felt like I still had him too high. Decker/Davis will take away his looks.
133. Tyler Lockett   
134. Adam Thielen  
135. Josh Doctson: Already hurt in training camp. Down.
136. Kevin White: And he'll probably be next...
137. Robby Anderson: Likely the #1 WR for the Jets...I guess? Added well into top-200.  
138. J.J. Nelson  
139. Marqise Lee 
140. Anquan Boldin: Signed a one year deal with the Bills and cracks my top-150.
141. Marvin Jones 
142. Andy Dalton
143. Carson Wentz
144. Eli Manning: Down to the bottom of this last QB tier. Not super interested in Eli.
145. Tim Hightower: Seems to be clear #2 behind Hyde. Could get a lot of work.
146. James White: It was a little harsh moving him all the way to the watch list. Back up.  
147. Alvin Kamara: Not sure how big his role will be, so he's down a few.
148. Darren McFadden: Moved into top-200. Will have value if Zeke suspended, and top handcuff.
149. James Connor: I only had him as I high as I did because he's Bell's handcuff. Down a bit.
150. T.J. Yeldon 
151. DeAndre Washington
152. Kenny Stills
153. Chris Conley
154. Ted Ginn
155. Zay Jones: With the Bills signing Boldin, Zay is down a couple of WR tiers.
156. Breshad Perriman: Now with a hamstring issue, down even more.
157. Cole Beasley
158. Robert Woods
159. Austin Hooper: Up to the top of this TE tier. Potential breakout candidate in Year 2. 
160. Coby Fleener
161. Julius Thomas
162. C.J. Fiedorowicz
163. Evan Engram: Up from the watch list. Super talented and not much competition at his position.
164. Dwayne Allen: Adding him too. If Gronk gets hurt (*gasp*), he'd surely be a top-10 TE.
165. Shane Vereen
166. Curtis Samuel
167. Branden Oliver
168. Marlon Mack: Felt too high where I had him, especially since Turbin could be #2.
169. Devontae Booker 
170. Chris Thompson
171. Jordan Matthews: His role seems to be shrinking by the day. Down. 
172. Allen Hurns: Moved him and a few other WRs into the top-200.
173. Taylor Gabriel
174. Kenny Golladay
175. Paul Richardson
176. Laquon Treadwell
177. Broncos DEFENSE
178. Cardinals DEFENSE: Moving them back up. Decent schedule and solid unit.
179. Seahawks DEFENSE
180. Ravens DEFENSE
181. Texans DEFENSE
182. Patriots DEFENSE
183. Steelers DEFENSE 
184. Panthers DEFENSE 
185. Vikings DEFENSE
186. Giants DEFENSE
187. Bengals DEFENSE
188. Bills DEFENSE: I'll probably stream Ds, so removed KC (@ NE Week 1). Bills home to NYJ.
189. Justin Tucker
190. Stephen Gostkowski
191. Mason Crosby
192. Adam Vinatieri
193. Dustin Hopkins
194. Cairo Santos
195. Caleb Sturgis
196. Sebastian Janikowski
197. Dan Bailey
198. Matt Prater
199. Steven Hauschka
200. Nick Novak


[The Watch List]

QBs
Deshaun Watson: Until he's declared the Week 1 starter, he's down to the watch list.
Blake Bortles: Moved him and Flacco down to the watch list. Not likely to draft either. 
Joe Flacco
Carson Palmer
Brian Hoyer

RBs
Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
Damien Williams
Kenyan Drake
Wendell Smallwood
Corey Clement
Chris Ivory
Zach Zenner
Bobby Rainey
Shaun Draughn
Wayne Gallman
Robert Turbin
Alfred Blue
D'Onta Foreman
Joe Williams
Aaron Jones
Jeremy McNichols
Donnel Pumphrey
Rashad Jennings
DeAngelo Williams
Ryan Mathews: Assuming the Eagles will cut him. Also assuming he may be done with football.

WRs
Mike Williams: Sounds like he'll have season-ending back surgery.  Down to the watch list.
Will Fuller: Broke his collarbone. Out for a while. Down to the watch list.
John Ross
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Sterling Shepard
Tavon Austin
Mohamed Sanu
Torrey Smith
Kendall Wright
Markus Wheaton
Brian Quick
Brandon Coleman
Kamar Aiken
Phillip Dorsett
ArDarius Stewart: Moved to the watch list, as I'm not sure I even want the #1 or 2 WR for the Jets.
Marquess Wilson: Also added him to the watch list, as someone has to catch balls for the Jets, right?

TEs
Jared Cook: Down to the watch list since Carr doesn't throw to his TEs a ton.
Jesse James: Down to watch list. I don't want Le'Veon and him both on my fantasy team.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: Added to the watch list. Maybe he'll be the #2 receiving option for the Jets.
Cameron Brate
O.J. Howard
Vernon Davis
Ben Watson
Larry Donnell
Logan Thomas
Gary Barnidge




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