2021 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

Last week, I mentioned how hard it can be not to overreact to Week 1, and it can be prove equally difficult to determine what is and is not a trend after Week 2.  Well, I must have guessed right on a few of those because I ended up as the #2 most accurate expert on FantasyPros in Week 3!

I'm glad to see a few more followers on Twitter (welcome!), and feel free to ask me questions there.  I enjoy having a discussion about trades, waiver wire adds, and of course start/sit decisions.  But to me, that's exactly what it is: a discussion.  A lot of people like to confirm their own opinions with a fantasy analyst or a friend, but sometimes you'll gain a perspective that you might not have been considering. 

One thing I added last week to each position ranking was tiers.  While I'm not sure how helpful they are for the reader, it's possible they helped me with my accuracy.  I guess we'll find out here in Week 4, won't we?  If you're new to my rankings, just know that I will update them regularly (at least daily from now until Sunday around noon).  So check the timestamp in the window below to make sure they're up to date.

 

Let's get to em!

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

2021 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

It's hard not to overreact to Week 1, but I hope you did your best in Week 2.  And it might be even harder to look at two weeks of data and try to determine what is and is not a trend.  While James Robinson played a ton of snaps, he continued to mostly trend down.  Week 3 is going to tell a lot about Robinson.  In what should be an up-tempo game, I'd expect him to end up with double digit fantasy points.  If he lays an egg, it might be time to panic and probably time to bench him.

Deebo Samuel continued to trend up last week.  So did Derek Carr and plenty of others.  I can't wait to find out how many of these trends will continue here into Week 3, and I hope I have a good feel for moving guys up and down.  This is the dance we do with the rankings, and it's especially volatile at the beginning of the season.  By Week 4, things will come a bit more into focus.

One new thing I'm trying out this week is adding TIERS to each position ranking.  I'm not sure how helpful they will be for start/sit decisions, but it'll give you an idea of how I think of guys in certain buckets.  For instance, if you're deciding between starting DeVonta Smith or Diontae Johnson, they're super close in my rankings but I have Smith in a tier above Johnson.  So while it's basically a toss up, since I have them in different tiers, it's a slightly easier call than DeVonta Smith versus Brandin Cooks for instance (since they're in the same tier).  

I hope the tiers make sense for in season rankings.  They do to me.  I'll obviously be updating these throughout the week/weekend, so check back often as news rolls in.  Let's get to them, shall we?

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

2021 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

The first week of the NFL season can be tough to predict, and you don't want to overreact too much here in Week 2.  For instance, I'm not really lowering Aaron Rodgers or any other Packers, especially since they're facing the Lions on Monday Night Football.  I am moving guys down like James Robinson and Julio Jones...and Jameis and Deebo Samuel up.  We'll find out in just a few days if any of those are overreactions or not.

As always feel free to let me know what you think on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks below my rankings.  I'll keep both up to date throughout the week/weekend.

Let's get to it!

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

2021 Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings

While it feels a little silly posting Rest of Season rankings after just one week of games, here I am doing it anyway.  Last year I finished as the #2 ROS ranker on FantasyPros just behind Dan Harris, so there's no time to wait if I want to get a jump start at trying for the #1 spot.  Sure, fewer people do the ROS rankings competition (maybe 30ish), but finishing second in anything other than pistols at dawn isn't too shabby.

I will update these rankings fairly frequently (like when big injuries happen), but I'll at least update them every Monday/Tuesday all season long.  Hopefully this list will help you when considering trade offers, but it can also be helpful to see the big picture on a player rather than kneejerk reactions that can occur on a weekly basis.  If you have any questions about these ROS rankings, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler!

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

2021 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

Is it just me or has it been a long summer?  COVID isn't over...and neither is baseball.  But we finally made it to the 2021 NFL season!

It feels good to get my initial Week 1 rankings done, and I'll be adjusting them as practice notes start trickling in.  So check back often.  Seriously, I could use the clicks!

Feel free to let me know what you think on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks below my rankings.  Sports betting was illegal in my state of Virginia last year, but not anymore!  So now I'll be using my own advice on some of these picks.  I'll be adjusting those regularly as well, likely all the way up to kickoff times. 

Below my betting picks will be my real football predictions in case you care to see those...

You may notice I'm relatively low on rookies in Week 1 because I want to see it first before I rank most of them higher.  If you want to start Najee Harris or a guy like Trey Sermon against the Lions, go for it.  But I think Sermon is likely a FLEX at best.  As for someone like Michael Carter, the Jets didn't even list him on their official depth chart.  So tread lightly with guys like him in Week 1.  If guys go off in their first NFL game, I'll adjust accordingly.  But for now, most are relatively low.

OK.  Let's get to the rankings!

 

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

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So here are my real football predictions for the 2021 season.  I've been way off with my Super Bowl winners the last two years.  I picked the Rams to win it all in 2019, but I did have the Chiefs at least making it to the Super Bowl.  Then last year I picked the Saints over the Chiefs, so I am consistently getting the Chiefs right to make it to the Super Bowl.  This year I think I'll actually pick them to win it.  Let's take a look at the rest of my picks, shall we?

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Wild Card1: Los Angeles Chargers

AFC Wild Card2: Cleveland Browns

AFC Wild Card3: New England Patriots

[Chiefs over Ravens in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers 

NFC Wild Card1: Los Angeles Rams 

NFC Wild Card2: Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wild Card3: Minnesota Vikings

[Packers over Rams in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Chiefs over Packers

Fantasy Football 2021: Top 12 predictions for each position

I say this every year at the beginning of this article, and I'll say it again: 

These are NOT my rankings.  

My preseason/draft rankings have things like injury risk, coaching changes, RB committees, and a ton of other things built into them.  What I've put together below are my predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons (at least for these guys).  

The position lists below provide some insight into who I think has major upside, and in the case of the TE position maybe just a boring veteran who will end up in the top-12 because he'll play 17 games and just be solid.  When it comes to doing my own fantasy drafts, I still more or less stick to my rankings.  But these predictions are fun, and sometimes I highlight these guys on my big board and maybe take them a round or so earlier than his ADP.  Bold picks are sprinkled throughout.  Let's get to it!

QB 

Kyler Murray 
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Russell Wilson

Justin Fields
Tom Brady

Josh Allen 

Matthew Stafford

Dak Prescott  

Derek Carr

Aaron Rodgers

Kirk Cousins

I have Mahomes ahead of Murray in my preseason rankings, but I feel strongly that Kyler could easily be the #1 fantasy QB this year.  And when you look at the rest of my guys here, there's a lot of chalk except for a couple of boring guys at the end (Carr/Cousins) and Justin Fields.  As long as Chicago makes Fields the starter within the first couple of weeks, I really think he'll be a top-10 fantasy quarterback.  You could say the same for Trey Lance, but I get the feeling Jimmy G will have a longer leash.  I want to see Fields in the second half on Sunday night against the Rams and for him to never look back.

RB

Dalvin Cook 

Ezekiel Elliott 

Christian McCaffrey

Derrick Henry 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Gus Edwards

Jonathan Taylor

Nick Chubb

Austin Ekeler

AJ Dillon

Chris Carson

Sony Michel

So I have a lot of wild cards here.  Gus Edwards isn't that crazy as a top-12 fantasy RB after the Dobbins injury, but of course no one is drafting him as such...so it's a little crazy.  Sony Michel is definitely crazy on this list, but what if he fills that Cam Akers role and gets double digit touchdowns?  The same could be said for AJ Dillon, but I think he'd need Aaron Jones to miss some time in order to crack the top-12 RB list.  But anything is possible, and when you look at the top-12 RBs at the end of every season, you need to think a little outside of the box.

WR
Tyreek Hill

Calvin Ridley

Davante Adams 

A.J. Brown

Justin Jefferson

DeAndre Hopkins 

Stefon Diggs

Robert Woods

Jerry Jeudy

Chris Godwin

Will Fuller 

D.J. Moore

So a couple of guys who likely shouldn't be on this list: Jerry Jeudy and Will Fuller.  But with Bridgewater now the QB in Denver, Jeudy will start getting more accurate passes his way.  That might be all he needs to breakout in his second year in the league.  As for Fuller, he needs to say healthy for a full season and have Tua take the next step (or have Deshaun Watson come to South Beach).  Either way, it's obviously a long shot but a healthy Will Fuller could be a top-12 fantasy WR.

TE
Darren Waller

Travis Kelce 

Kyle Pitts

Mark Andrews

Austin Hooper

George Kittle

Tyler Higbee

Noah Fant

T.J. Hockenson

Jonnu Smith

Cole Kmet

Gerald Everett

Austin Hooper is seriously flying under the radar this year.  He's only in his second season with the Browns, and he missed time last year due to an appendectomy.  If he plays a full season, he could end up with 100 targets and easily be a top-10 fantasy TE (maybe even top-5!).  As for Cole Kmet, this is banking on Jimmy Graham falling off and maybe Justin Fields using him as a safety net.  The talent is there, I just think he needs some more opportunity in this offense.

With the season kicking off Thursday, that's probably a wrap for the preseason articles.  I'll keep updating my draft rankings up until close to kickoff of the Bucs/Cowboys game, and I'll post my Week 1 rankings tomorrow!

Who is this year's Zac Stacy? (2021 Edition)

This is by far my favorite preseason article to write.  Based on the title, you can probably tell I've been writing it for a while now.  If you're new to it, it's basically just a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc.  

You may or may not remember Zac Stacy.  He was barely a flash in the pan.  For me, it just feels right to name this preseason piece after him because that's when I started writing it.  Who was last year's Zac Stacy?  Clearly it was James Robinson.  Does that mean Robinson will do nothing this year?  Before the Etienne injury, I thought that was possible.  Now, not so much.  I think he'll be fine.

This article points out several trends I've noticed during the years I've been writing about fantasy football, and I've hand picked a guy to fit each category for the 2021 season.  There's not always a player who fits each category, but as you'll see, it happens more often than not.  We'll see if I can get one or two of these right again this year.  Let's go!

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), Devin Singletary (2019), or James Robinson (2020)?

[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

A: Kenneth Gainwell

Obviously someone like Najee Harris doesn't fit into this category.  The same can be said for Javonte Williams, Tre Sermon and Michael Carter.  These rookies are being drafted in nearly every league, so we have to dig deeper for this year's Zac Stacy.  With a new coaching staff in Philly, I think it's possible Miles Sanders isn't THE guy in this backfield.  It might take an injury to Sanders, but it might not.  If Gainwell gets the opportunity, maybe he just takes over as the top RB for the Eagles.

Honorable Mention: Jaret Patterson

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), or Nyheim Hines/J.D. McKissic (2020)?

[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

A: Kenyan Drake

To be fair, Hines and McKissic both finished just outside the top-20 in half PPR and inside the top-20 in full PPR last year.  But I listed them both for this category even though neither quite finished in the top-20 for half PPR.  Anyway, I was going to write about Gus Edwards here, but I can't do that now with the Dobbins injury.  Instead I'll focus on Kenyan Drake, who is being drafted outside of the top-40 RBs but could certainly finish in the top-20 if Josh Jacobs gets injured or falters in any way.  Or maybe this is just more of a timeshare and Drake is heavily involved in the passing game.  Either way, he might just end up finding his way into the top-20, and I don't think anyone expects him to do so.

Honorable Mention: James Conner

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), A.J. Brown (2019), or Tee Higgins (2020)?

[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-25 fantasy WR.]

A: Rondale Moore

This happens almost every year, but it's always hard to predict with so many promising rookie WRs.  Last year I actually got this one right with Tee Higgins.  This year, I'm going with Rondale Moore.  I think he could be a big time playmaker in this offense, and I'm going to assume A.J. Green will be dealing with a season-ending injury by Week 3.  Moore could end up being the #2 WR in this high powered offense.

Honorable Mention: Terrace Marshall, Jr.

Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), or Kyler Murray/Josh Allen (2020)?

[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

A: Tua Tagovailoa

I nailed this one in 2019 with Lamar, and then I crashed and burned by saying Daniel Jones could take a leap in 2020.  This year I'm trying a second year leap again with Tua.  The Dolphins got him some more weapons with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, and Tua is another year healthier/removed from that serious hip injury.  You can draft him outside of the top-20 QBs right now, and I don't see why he couldn't take that next step and be in the QB1 conversation this year.  For comparison, his draft class mate Joe Burrow is already being drafted near the QB1 territory.  He's my honorable mention here because he could also be in that mix.  But I like Tua's lower round value way better.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow

Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?

[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2021.]

A: Zack Moss

This trend was happening every year until Rashaad Penny got hurt and couldn't do it in 2019 and then Darrell Henderson was overtaken by Cam Akers last year.  Let's see if this gets back on track for 2021.  And if not, I'll just remove this from the article moving forward.  If the trend is over, let's ditch it.  But this year I really think Zack Moss could end up leading a timeshare and finish as a top-20 fantasy RB. As long as Moss gets a bunch of goal line work and Josh Allen doesn't have like 8 rushing touchdowns, I feel confident in Moss over Singletary in Buffalo.

Honorable Mention: AJ Dillon

Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018), Darren Waller (2019), or Robert Tonyan (2020)?

[Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]

A: Austin Hooper

I really feel like Austin Hooper could have a 2015 Gary Barnidge kind of season.  Hooper had some good years in Atlanta, but he struggled a bit in his first year as a Brown.  If he can get a full season in without injury, I think he'll end up with 100 targets and could push for a top-5 TE spot.

Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett

I'll post at least one more article before Week 1 of the regular season, and until then, good luck in your drafts!