Back in the day I used to write all sorts of preseason fantasy football articles, but for the past couple of years I've just done one big catch all piece. While obviously I enjoy doing this (otherwise why would I do it?), I value my time and don't care to spend it all on fantasy football blogging. This is even more true now that I have a baby who is thinking about walking around the entire house any day now. In fact, this year I'm compressing this article even more! Well, at least the format anyway. It's still pretty damn long...
In previous years, I gave you a handful of guys I wouldn't be drafting and a few more players ready for the "next level". But my favorite part of this article has always been the last part with the format of "Who is this year's Player X"? So for 2017, I'm just going to incorporate those first two lists into more Q&A, and I think it'll work out just fine.
This started back in 2014 when I called the article "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?" Remember that guy?!? Well, basically no one drafted him in fantasy leagues in 2013, but he ended up being very relevant later in the year for the Rams (and for fantasy owners). I'll give you an idea of some of my preseason picks through the following questions and answers. This year, in addition to some long shots, I'm incorporating a few reasonable picks as well. We'll see if you can tell the difference, but I'm not going to point them out. ;)
Enjoy!
Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), or Jordan Howard (2016)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is
UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues. He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back for his team and really help your fantasy squad this year.]
A: De'Angelo Henderson
Let's start this thing off with the original question that started this article for me, and it's a question that's nearly impossible to answer in August. But in case you couldn't tell, this happens like every year (at least since I've been writing about it). In fact, as a Redskins fan, I also remembered that it happened in 2012 as well, so I added Alfred Morris to my list above. "The Butler" had 1,613 rushing yards and 13 TDs in his rookie year, but no one was taking him in fantasy drafts because...I guess everyone thought Roy Helu would be better? I don't remember.
In any event, this year we could see a Washington RB do it again in Samaje Perine. But he's currently being drafting in the top-100(ish), so I can't list him as my pick here. Likewise, Kareem Hunt could fit the bill in KC, but his ADP is right around there too. In fact, a lot of rookie RBs aren't flying under anyone's radar. Jamaal Williams is another guy I considered here, but he's also being drafted too high for "This Year's Zac Stacy".
But De'Angelo Henderson is barely on anyone's radar, and I think he should be. He's behind a bunch of injured or injury-prone RBs on Denver's depth chart (Anderson, Charles, and Booker), and there's talk of Jamaal Charles not even making the team! As for Henderson, he's actually built kind of like Anderson. And by that I mean a bowling ball (5'7" 208 lbs). All he did in college was score touchdowns, and all he's doing in training camp and preseason games is looking like a pro running back. He might not get a shot right away, but he seems like the kind of guy who could end up with the job mid-year due to injuries and poor performance of others and run away with the job.
Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013), Mark Ingram (2014), or Darren McFadden (2015)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back and score a TON of fantasy points.]
A: Carlos Hyde
Ryan Mathews sort of fit this description last year, but not quite. Does anyone have that shot in 2017? Well, Carlos Hyde was a Heisman contender at Ohio State, and he was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft by the 49ers. He played in the shadow of Frank Gore his rookie year, but he was set to break out in his second season with Gore off to Indy. It didn't work out that way as Hyde missed over half the 2015 season due to injury. He did have a decent 2016 season, with over 1000 total yards and 9 TDs. But once again, he dealt with injuries and a terrible team that really held him back. With Kyle Shanahan coming to town, I think we'll see Hyde break out in a big way, and I currently have him ranked well ahead of most experts. If Hyde stays healthy, he'll be a top-10 fantasy RB.
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), or Theo Riddick (2016 - sort of)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who
sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
A: Jacquizz Rodgers
Every year one of these tiny RBs finds themselves in the top-20. OK. So last year there wasn't really one, but Theo Riddick was damn close. If he didn't get injured, he would've been top-20 no question (and he got in on a points per game basis). Anyway, who will it be this year? And no, you can't say Danny Woodhead (again) because no one is sleeping on him - especially after Dixon was lost for the year with that meniscus tear.
But I think Rodgers has a shot. He has a legitimate chance to be a top-10 fantasy RB through the first 3 weeks of the season (while Doug Martin is suspended), and I think he could earn more work beyond that. When Martin returns, everyone expects him to take the job over again, but will he be productive? Will Charles Sims be the passing down back? Not if he can't stay healthy (which has been his issue thus far in the NFL)! I think Rodgers could still see plenty of playing time from Week 4 on (especially if he's been playing well), and he could sneak into the top-20 RBs by the end of the season.
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), or Tyreek Hill (2016)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a
late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues and will end up being a very relevant fantasy WR.]
A: John Ross
Keep in mind, guys like Corey Davis (and now Zay Jones) are being drafted too highly to fit the category, so I had to pick someone who is really off the radar. And yes, it may seem hard to believe, but all of those other dudes I listed above were barely drafted in their rookie seasons! John Ross seems to fit into the same mold as those guys because he's becoming an afterthought in fantasy drafts. Remember, Ross was the #9 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and he broke Chris Johnson's 40 time at the combine in a record 4.22 seconds! And I'm not even thinking an A.J. Green injury would be necessary to vault the rookie into being useful in your fantasy league. I think Ross could make enough plays even with Green
in the lineup! Tyler Boyd didn't look great last year, and Brandon LaFell has never really been very good. Ross is currently behind both on the depth chart, but the cream rises to the top. I don't see why he couldn't fit into the lineup around Week 4 or 5 (you know, once Eifert is done for the year with some sort of arm injury and Boyd continues his mediocre play) and be this year's version of Tyreek Hill.
Q: Who is this year's Percy Harvin (2014), Jordan Cameron (2015), or Tony Romo (2016)?
[Description: A veteran who all of the experts have in their top-100, but who I'll be trying to stay away from in all of my drafts.]
A: Ben Roethlisberger
See, this fits in with my list of guys I won't be drafting, right? I'm just not going to give you laundry list of them. I just want to talk about how I won't be drafting Big Ben this year. Most experts have him as a top-10 fantasy QB and well inside their top-100s, but not me. He's well outside of my top-100 and not even in my top-15 QBs. When you look at his home/away splits last year, the numbers are staggering. I mean, the guy was
flat out terrible on the road (at least from a fantasy perspective).
But this is the most important stat - his finishes as a fantasy QB the last 7 seasons:
17th, 13th, 18th, 12th, 5th, 20th, 18th.
So why is the entire
fantasy community agreeing on this guy being a top-10 fantasy QB in
2017? The return of Martavis Bryant? The addition of some Southern Cal WR named JuJu? Sorry, but I'm not buying it. And as someone who will likely be taking Le'Veon Bell with the #1 pick in his draft, I don't want to also have his mediocre fantasy quarterback on my squad too. I'll pass.
Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), or Kirk Cousins (2016)?
[Description: A second or third year starting QB ready to jump to the next fantasy QB tier.]
A: Carson Wentz
I
could easily talk up third year starters Jameis Winston or Marcus
Mariota here, but I feel like every fantasy football article about this topic
mentions those two QBs as jumping up to the next level. And full disclosure, I actually talked up Jameis (and not Kirk) in this article last year, so I'm not going back to that well.
Instead I'll focus on a second year signal caller in Wentz, who I wouldn't have considered a few months ago when his
main target was Jordan "Stone Hands" Matthews. But Matthews was shipped off to Buffalo (which I see as a good thing for Wentz), and now his main targets are solid offseason acquisitions Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. The Eagles also selected WRs in the 4th and 5th rounds of this year's draft. Oh, and he still has Ertz and Celek to catch balls too! Hell,
Wentz even went and got laser eye surgery in the offseason. He's ready
to roll, baby! He finished outside of the top-20 fantasy QBs in his
rookie season, but I think he'll easily move into that tier in Year 2.
In fact, now that he has a few more weapons, I wouldn't be surprised to
see Wentz finish in the top-15.
(For these next few, I'm not going to dig too deep into the archives for examples. Rather, I'll just go back a year or two...)
Q: Who is this year's Cam Newton (2016)?
[Description: A top-5 fantasy QB who finishes outside of the top-15 the following year.]
A: Matt Ryan
I hope the answer is Dak Prescott, but that might be wishful thinking as a Redskins fan. Instead I'll stay in the NFC South and go with Matt Ryan, who has some similarities to Cam's 2016 slump. Cam
won the MVP in 2015, lost in the Super Bowl, and then had a
horrible season the following year. Matt Ryan
could follow
that exact same path, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Falcons missed
the playoffs this year like the Panthers did a year ago. Ryan lost his
offensive coordinator with Kyle Shanahan off to be the head coach in
San Fran, and the Falcons have a couple of solid RBs in Freeman and
Coleman who they may lean on even more this season. And don't forget Matty Ice was barely a top-20 fantasy QB in 2015, so regression
feels likely. This is all not to say I wouldn't draft the guy,
but if anyone fits the category of this year's version of 2016 Cam Newton, it's
Ryan.
Q: Who is this year's Tevin Coleman (2016)?
[Description:
A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely
the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20
fantasy RB in 2017.]
A: Derrick Henry
When considering a second year RB for this spot, I took into account that the Titans were #3 in rushing attempts in 2016, and their solid o-line is still intact. Sure, everyone expects Mariota to improve, and DeMarco is still technically the lead guy for the Titans. But I doubt the Titans want to run either into the ground. I think there will be
more of a timeshare with these two RBs this year, and
both could have good fantasy
value. If Henry can make some plays and find himself in the endzone a few more times (like he did in Tennessee's second preseason game), he could have a season similar to Coleman's last year.
Q: Who is this year's Gary Barnidge (2015) or Kyle Rudolph (2016)?
[Description: A tight end who is virtually
undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]
A: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
By the way, could Kyle Rudolph be this year's Gary Barnidge and have a terrible 2017 fantasy season? Let's hope not...
As for this year's version of "that guy", I thought about going with Austin Hooper. But like Coby Fleener last year, Hooper is steadily creeping up everyone's draft board and is in every sleeper article out there this summer. He's currently being drafted around the 15th or so TE, so I thought I'd talk up someone who's going
much later in fantasy drafts.
ASJ is being drafted around the 30th TE in fantasy leagues, so you should be able to get him with your last pick. That could be a steal for a guy who has apparently been "dominating Jets camp." And laugh all you want about the Jets [raises hand...GUILTY!], but no matter how bad they might be this year, it's not like no one will be fantasy-relevant for the entire team! I don't think Austin is on anyone's radar because he's suspended the first two games for his DUI arrest nearly a year ago. But over the last several months, he's gotten sober and apparently "has never felt so good" (not hard to believe considering his circumstances TBH). I can't remember a Jets tight end ever being relevant in fantasy football, but this could be the year!
If you've made it this far, congratulations. I know it was a long one. I'll try to get one more rankings update out there before Labor Day Weekend, and I'll have one more article before Week 1 with some real football predictions for the upcoming season. Spoiler alert: the Patriots are still annoyingly good.
Until then, try to enjoy some Week 3 preseason football. It's the closest thing to the real deal for a couple more weeks!
But whatever. It's kind of fun.
BOLD prediction: I decide not to keep Ty Montgomery over Demaryius Thomas in my fantasy league, and HE decides to score more fantasy points than Jordan Howard (who I am keeping). Yes, this is somewhat of a reverse jinx, but I also think it's within the realm of possibility.
