Fantasy Football 2016 End of Year Review

Before I get into my recap from my preseason picks, I'll review my own performance in my fantasy league.  To sum it up in one word this year, I'd probably go with "mediocre".  But if you read my rankings toward the end, you'll recall that I did barely miss the playoffs and would have made it into the championship game had I been able to get that 6th playoff spot.  Well, my "What If" scenario played out such that I would NOT have won the championship had I been there in Week 16, which is kind of a relief.  I ended up losing in the consolation championship and finishing 8th overall.  Better luck next year!

Also if you read my rankings up until the end, you'll recall I started picking games against the spread in Week 12, and I did 3 "locks" in Weeks 15 & 16.
Here were my results from Week 16 and below that my results for every week I picked games...

Week 16 results: 9-7, LOCKS 3-0

NYG @ PHI (NYG -2.5)
MIA @ BUF (BUF -3.5)
NYJ @ NE (NE -16.5) LOCK
TEN @ JAC (TEN -4.5)
MIN @ GB (GB -6.5) LOCK
SD @ CLE (CLE +6.5)
WAS @ CHI (CHI +3.5)
ATL @ CAR (ATL -2.5)
IND @ OAK (IND +3.5)
TB @ NO (TB +3)
ARI @ SEA (ARI +8.5)
SF @ LA (SF +3.5)
CIN @ HOU (HOU -1)
BAL @ PIT (BAL +5.5) LOCK
DEN @ KC (DEN +4)
DET @ DAL (DAL -7)

Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 8-7
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 8-8   (LOCKS: 2-1)
Week 16: 9-7   (LOCKS: 3-0)

Since I'm getting this done before the Week 17 games, I thought I'd go ahead and pick them too.  Why not, right?  I mean, it can be a tricky week with certain teams resting starters, some playing for nothing, some pride, etc.  Some of these spreads are as difficult to read as a preseason game, but I'll do my best and see what happens!

Like the last couple of weeks, I'll also put 3 games in BOLD for my Week 17 "locks".  So far, my results are just slightly better than average overall, but my locks have been solid!  Let's see if I can keep that rolling in this final week of the NFL season.  Again, I'm going with ESPN's lines on their website, and some have moved around in the last couple of days.  I don't follow the betting lines very closely, so forgive me if some of these aren't 100% up to date.  I'll recap my Week 17 picks when I do my "Way Too Early 2017 Rankings" in the next couple of weeks.

Week 17 picks

BAL @ CIN (BAL +1)

HOU @ TEN (TEN -3)
CAR @ TB (CAR +6.5)
JAC @ IND (IND -4.5)
NE @ MIA (MIA +10.5)
CHI @ MIN (MIN -5)
BUF @ NYJ (NYJ +5.5)
DAL @ PHI (PHI -3.5)
CLE @ PIT (CLE +6.5)
NO @ ATL (NO +7)
NYG @ WAS (NYG +8)
ARI @ LA (ARI -6)
OAK @ DEN (OAK +1.5)
KC @ SD (KC -4.5)
SEA @ SF (SEA -9.5)
GB @ DET (GB -3.5)



So let's get into my year end review, shall we?

If you read my preseason article SPECTACULAR, you may recall a few lists I put together.  Well, I don't just like to put lists out there and not follow up on how I did.  So let's see how things shook out this year with my picks.

I'll start off recapping the list of a few guys I said I wouldn't be drafting this year.  This wasn't to say it was impossible that I'd draft any of these players, but definitely unlikely for various reasons.  I hit the nail on the head with Romo and Boswell, but I missed the mark on Jimmy Graham, and to a much lesser extent Sproles and Steve Smith.  I'll summarize the predictions/results below each name.

Steve Smith
I said he'd be inconsistent and frustrating to start/sit until he finally decided to retire for one reason or another.  While he gutted out the season and didn't retire in the middle due to injury or otherwise, he was fairly inconsistent.  He began the season with back to back poor showings, so you may not have played him the next two weeks when he did produce.  That up and down trend continued pretty much the rest of the year.  While he had solid production in Weeks 15 & 16, he had a combined 13 fantasy points in the 3 games before then.  So it would have taken some guts to start him in your fantasy playoffs, and it looks like with a strong finish, he'll still just barely finish inside the top-40 fantasy WRs on the season.

Darren Sproles
I didn't even rank Sproles in my top-50 RBs (like most experts did).  The Eagles drafted Wendell Smallwood, and I thought Ryan Mathews was likely the only Eagle RB worth drafting.  While it looks like Mathews will finish with more fantasy points than Sproles on the season, it's actually not that big of a lead.  The little guy has been a serviceable fantasy RB this season, consistently getting 5-10 fantasy points most weeks, so I'd say I was wrong about the 33 year Sproles.

Tony Romo
Speaking of less than average BACKS, here's a guy who was a top-10 QB for a TON of experts, and he averaged right around the 12th or 13th QB when you combined expert preseason rankings.  But for me, he was barely in my preseason top-20.  I didn't believe in Romo staying healthy, and I was pretty spot on here since he got hurt in the preseason and hasn't played a snap since.  I'd say the days of ranking/drafting Romo in fantasy are over, even if he lands with a different team in 2017.



Jimmy Graham
This was another guy coming off a serious injury that I wasn't willing to touch.  We're talking about the same type of patellar tendon injury that caused Victor Cruz to miss a whole season.  Before this season started, there was concern that Graham would even play a snap in 2016, but he did way more than that.  It's looking like he'll likely finish the year as a top-5 fantasy TE, so I was wrong to not rank him due to injury concerns.

Chris Boswell
I hate feeling the need to discuss kickers because I'm still campaigning to get rid of them in my league, but I felt the need to point out how the aggressive play calling of Mike Tomlin would lead to Boswell not being a good fantasy kicker.  No team attempted more two point conversions in 2015, and the same goes for this season.  Not only that, but the Steelers seem to go for it on 4th down when they're in the middle of the field.  This all contributed to Boswell being one of the lowest scoring fantasy kickers of all of the regular kickers, even including his 6 FG outburst in Week 15!


The next preseason list was guys ready for the NEXT LEVEL.  These were players who I thought were primed to make that jump from virtual fantasy irrelevance straight to a top-10 or top-20 at their position (depending on where they were in the previous season).  These weren't players who were already top-10 or 15 in their position preseason rankings, so I couldn't include someone like Carlos Hyde or Amari Cooper.  Anyway, here is my list for 2016.  Let's see how I did...



QB: Jameis Winston
I predicted a 4000 yd & 30+ pass TD second year campaign for Jameis (similar to Derek Carr's second year stats).  He should easily hit the 4000 yard passing mark, but he'll need 3 passing TDs on Sunday to get to 30 on the season.  Either way, a solid performance in Week 17 could land him inside the top-10 fantasy QBs in 2016.

RB: Duke Johnson
Swing and a miss!

I thought Duke would break out and be closer to a top-20 RB in his second year in the league, especially with Hue Jackson likely to use him heavily in the Giovani Bernard role.  As it turned out, the Browns were so terrible that this was a virtual impossibility for the sophomore running back, and it looks like he'll barely finish as a top-40 RB.  We'll see if next year he can be a post hype sleeper!

WR: Marvin Jones
Here's a guy who was ranked/drafted somewhere around the 40th WR, near the likes of guys like Josh Gordon.  And while Jones was somewhat of a risky pick with his injury history, he obviously didn't carry anywhere near the risk of someone like Josh Gordon!  (At least that was obvious to ME.)  Turns out I was right about that.  And when the season started, Marvin looked like he was set to fill that Megatron-sized hole of 150 targets.  My prediction of 1000 yards and 8 or 9 TDs didn't seem unrealistic after he gained 408 yards and had a pair of TDs through just THREE games this season!  But that was the peak of his 2016 campaign, as he couldn't even match those stats in his next TEN games.  He showed promise early on, but Marvin didn't improve much from 2015 to 2016.

TE: Vance McDonald
I wanted to give you someone WAY off the radar here, and Vance was definitely that guy.  He was being draft around the 25th TE, so you could snag him in the last round of your draft if you wanted.  And if you did draft him (and even start him the first couple of weeks), you were pleasantly surprised.  He began the season scoring in back to back games, but it was mostly downhill from there.  As it turned out, injuries caught up with him again.  He missed a couple of games shortly after those first two, and he missed the last few after being put on the IR.  He ended up with 391 receiving yards and 4 TDs, but a top-15 fantasy TE on a per game average.


The final list I'll recap is "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?"  Remember that guy in 2014?!?  Well, basically no one in their right mind would have taken him in a fantasy draft that year, but he ended up being very relevant later in the season.  The following Q&A was an attempt to predict some long shots...I repeat: LONG SHOTS.  I'll give you my preseason answer along with the actual one...

Question: Who is this year's Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), or David Johnson (2015)?
[Description: A rookie (later-round draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]


My preseason answer: Paul Perkins
Actual answer: Jordan Howard
I actually had the #2 waiver priority and was able to scoop up Jordan Howard this year (thanks for not picking him up, Andrew!).  He took over for an injured Jeremy Langford in Week 3, and he proceeded to gain 100+ rushing yards in back to back starts Weeks 4 and 5.  He had ONE bad week in Green Bay (Week 7), but otherwise has been a stud.  He'll likely end the season as a top-10 fantasy RB, even though he basically didn't play in the first two games of the year.

Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013), Mark Ingram (2014), or Darren McFadden (2015)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]

My preseason answer: Ryan Mathews
Actual answer: Ryan Mathews
There's not really a great answer here, so I'll just say I'm right with Mathews.  He sort of fit the description, and he ended up as a top-25 fantasy RB in somewhat of a feature role.

Sure...

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), or... Danny Woodhead again (2015)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

My preseason answer: Theo Riddick

Actual answer: Theo Riddick
This one I actually did get right.  Riddick caught 80 balls out of the backfield last season and actually had more fantasy points than teammate Ameer Abdullah.  With Megtron out of the picture, receivers like Golden Tate and Marvin Jones were now the top options in Detroit, but I thought Riddick would still get a ton of targets and sneakily go from a top-40 RB to a top-20 kinda guy.  The injury to Abdullah certainly helped, but Riddick missed five games due to injury himself, and he's still nearly a top-25 fantasy RB heading into the last week of the season.  If he avoided the injury bug this season, he likely would've been close to a top-15 fantasy RB.

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013) or Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014)?
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy.  Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]

My preseason answer: Tyler Boyd
Actual answer: Tyreek Hill 
Michael Thomas was being drafted in the preseason top-125 (based on ADP), so I excluded him from contention for this category (but he almost fits the description as perfectly as Tyreek).  Also, Tyrell Williams doesn't fit either because he's actually a second year guy.  Who knew, right?

But you know who fits this category pretty damn well?  Tyreek Hill.  Not only was Tyreek drafted late in the actual NFL draft (5th round), but he was completely undrafted in fantasy drafts.  And he was relatively quiet through the first 6 weeks this season, but with Maclin struggling and ultimately missing 5 games due to injury, Tyreek the Freak broke out.  He averaged over 12 fantasy points per game in Weeks 7-16, and he got more than 12 fantasy points in each of his games in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16).  This guy peaked at the right time, and his owner in my fantasy league ended up winning the whole thing.  Tyreek was definitely a big part of that.


That's it for my 2016 recap.  I hope you enjoyed the blog and had a good season.  I'll try to post some early rankings for next season in the next couple of weeks!

Cheers,

Bart