2016 Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings

If you read my intro last week, you may recall that I missed the playoffs in my fantasy league by just 21 (season total!) fantasy points.  You also probably don't care, but I like to play the "what if" game.  As in "What if I had found a way to get into that 6th playoff spot?"  Well, I would've won in the first round in the championship bracket.  Dang it!!!

(Side note: There are two other guys in my league who are in the same situation as me - BARELY missed the playoffs and would've won this week if they were in.)


I should probably stop now with the "what if" game...but I won't.  I can't help but look at my matchup this week and wonder if I would've made it to the championship if I'd found a way to get that last playoff spot.  I'll give you an update in next week's rankings, and I know you can't wait...hah!

What about my wife's team?  Well, she ran into 50+ points from Le'Veon Bell, and she also had Melvin Gordon go down with an early injury (and zero points).  She didn't stand much of a chance and didn't make it to the championship, so no more Wheelers in the fantasy playoffs.  I'll still play for pride and bingo balls for next year's draft lottery, so I'll keep these rankings going.  Also, I know there are like 5 of you who read this, so I don't want to let you all down. :)

To the rankings!

QBs 1.Matt Ryan       2.Aaron Rodgers   3.Kirk Cousins 4.Tyrod Taylor  5.Tom Brady   6.Andrew Luck   7.Philip Rivers    8.Drew Brees 9.Russell Wilson  10.Ben Roethlisberger     11.Derek Carr  12.Marcus Mariota 13.Cam Newton  14.Dak Prescott  15.Carson Palmer  16.Eli Manning    17.Joe Flacco 18.Colin Kaepernick   19.Andy Dalton 20.Jameis Winston  Last week I was down on Cam Newton versus the ESPN experts for probably the 10th time this season (ESPN #9, ME #15).  But who's counting, right?  He finished 18th by the way.  This week, ESPN inexplicably has Cam ranked all the way up at #4.  Um...what?  He's not a top-12 fantasy QB on the season, and he's outside of my top-12 this week.  Anyway, I gave you someone else I didn't like for my official pick last week, and that was Ben Roethlisberger (ESPN #7, ME #12).  His road splits are clearly much worse than at home, and the winter weather in Buffalo was not appealing.  Ben threw 3 picks and had zero TDs on the day, finishing as THE worst fantasy QB in Week 14. I was high on my man Kirk Cousins (ESPN #11, ME #6), who had been as hot as any fantasy QB in his last few games.  He was also facing a Philly defense that has been getting lit up by opposing QBs in their last few.  I predicted 300+ yards and 2 or 3 TDs, but he ended up with just 234 passing yards and the pair of TDs.  Still, he finished as the #7 QB right about where I ranked him. I'm high on: Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #10, ME #4) Let me start off by saying this was a very tough week to rank QBs.  A lot of your top options are either facing tough opponents (Brady), not playing well lately (Dak, Big Ben, Russell), or a combination of BOTH (Drew Brees).  So my rankings feel a little all over the place, and I totally get if you want to start Joe Flacco over Drew Brees, or something like that.  After my SOLID (ish) top-3, I actually have Tyrod at my #4 spot in what I'm hoping is a sure thing against the Brownies at home.  Cleveland gives up THE most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and in their last couple it's been top-10 numbers to guys like Andy Dalton & Eli Manning.  We're not talking about Aaron Rodgers here, people.  And while Tyrod has been struggling a bit of late, I think the Browns coming to town is just what he needs to get back on track. I'm down on: Jameis Winston (ESPN #11, ME #20)  Jameis has had some good matchups the last couple of weeks (at San Diego and home to New Orleans), but he only has 1 touchdown in those two games combined.  Both were victories, and the Bucs have actually won 5 in a row, so he's probably not too concerned about the numbers while the Ws are there.  This week he travels to Dallas, and the Cowboys haven't allowed more than 1 passing TD in a game since Kirk Cousins lit them up on Thanksgiving Day.  I think Winston could have a quiet game, and I'd have a hard time trusting him as my starting QB if I were in the fantasy playoffs. RBs 1.David Johnson 2.Le'Veon Bell   3.LeSean McCoy 4.Ezekiel Elliott    5.DeMarco Murray 6.Devonta Freeman  7.Latavius Murray    8.Thomas Rawls 9.Jeremy Hill 10.Carlos Hyde 11.Jordan Howard    12.LeGarrette Blount  13.Spencer Ware  14.Lamar Miller                15.Jonathan Stewart   16.Bilal Powell      17.Rob Kelley   18.Tevin Coleman  19.Kenneth Farrow   20.Doug Martin  21.Isaiah Crowell    22.Frank Gore  23.Jay Ajayi      24.Todd Gurley 25.Mark Ingram  26.Kenneth Dixon  27.T.J. Yeldon  28.Ryan Mathews 29.Jerick McKinnon  30.Theo Riddick  31.Ty Montgomery 32.Rashad Jennings  33.Mike Gillislee  34.Terrance West 35.Matt Asiata    36.Justin Forsett   37.Derrick Henry 38.Dion Lewis  39.Dwayne Washington 40.Rex Burkhead Last week I was high on Rex Burkhead (ESPN #40, ME #31) and down on Rob Kelley (ESPN #18, ME #25).  Burkhead was facing the Browns, who give up the second most fantasy points to RBs.  As it turns out, most of those points went to Jeremy Hill (who finished as a top-5 RB).  As for Burkhead, he racked up 51 total yards but finished closer to where ESPN ranked him than where I had him.  I was down on Fat Rob because he hadn't done much in the last couple of weeks since going off against the Packers.  He actually had the exact same number of rushing yards this week as last week (63), but he found the endzone and finished as a top-10 RB.  Hey, I'm fine being wrong with this one because it helped Washington get the win! I'm high on: Kenneth Farrow (ESPN #26, ME #19) The undrafted rookie out of Houston came in last week when Melvin Gordon got injured, and he proceeded to gain 78 yards on 24 touches.  Granted, Ronnie Hillman was inactive last week and likely will be the passing down back in Week 15.  But I feel like Farrow will get plenty of touches and I like him to find the endzone for the first time in his young NFL career.  That easily makes him an RB2 for me. I'm down on:  Jay Ajayi (ESPN #12, ME #23)  Remember those 3 or 4 weeks when Ajayi lit the fantasy world on fire?  That seems like ages ago now, as the Dolphin RB only has 1 TD in his last 5 games and less than 80 rushing yards in each of those contests.  I think the Dolphins could have a hard time moving the ball with Matt Moore behind center, and I think Ajayi will be in line for 20+ touches but only 75 total yards and no scores.  (Of course I haven't been right about the running back I'm down on versus the ESPN experts since Week 11.  So there's that...) WRs 1.Antonio Brown     2.Odell Beckham, Jr.   3.Jordy Nelson  4.Mike Evans   5.T.Y. Hilton 6.Dez Bryant 7.Amari Cooper   8.Sammy Watkins  9.Davante Adams   10.Demaryius Thomas 11.Tyreek Hill  12.Emmanuel Sanders  13.Tyrell Williams   14.Doug Baldwin  15.Taylor Gabriel 16.Michael Crabtree  17.Larry Fitzgerald   18.DeSean Jackson 19.Rishard Matthews  20.Dontrelle Inman   21.Jamison Crowder   22.Brandin Cooks 23.Julian Edelman  24.Golden Tate    25.Steve Smith, Sr.  26.Stefon Diggs 27.Alshon Jeffery   28.Michael Thomas  29.Adam Thielen  30.Jarvis Landry 31.Tyler Boyd  32.Marqise Lee   33.Jordan Matthews 34.Terrelle Pryor, Sr.  35.Kelvin Benjamin  36.Robby Anderson 37.Pierre Garcon   38.J.J. Nelson 39.DeAndre Hopkins  40.Malcolm Mitchell    41.Tyler Lockett  42.Willie Snead 43.Kenny Britt  44.Brandon Marshall   45.Mike Wallace  46.Randall Cobb 47.Allen Robinson  48.Sterling Shephard 49.DeVante Parker  50.Anquan Boldin  I did a little better with my WR picks versus the ESPN experts last week, as I was down on Larry Fitzgerald (ESPN #9, ME #20) who caught just 3 of his 9 targets for a whopping 12 yards!  He has now had fewer than 8 fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 games.  I was high on Tyler Lockett (ESPN #52, ME #33), who only one ESPN expert even ranked.  I'll say that I kind of whiffed on Lockett, but he at least racked up 56 total yards.  He finished just outside of the top-40, but I still think he's at least worth ranking!  The experts aren't ranking him for a second week in a row, but I sure am!!! I'm high on: Taylor Gabriel (ESPN #35, ME #15) I'm high on a lot of WRs versus ESPN this week, so it was hard to pick just one.  But in case you hadn't noticed, Taylor Gabriel has been a top-5 fantasy WR in his last 6 games.  That's right.  SIX GAMES!  I'm not talking about a fluky play here or there.  I'm talking about 6 TDs in those 6 games.  The Falcons face the 49ers on Sunday, and they're giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs.  I don't think Julio will even play in this game, so I don't see why the #1 ranked fantasy QB (Matt Ryan) wouldn't get at least one score to his favorite WR of late.  Gabriel is a must start for me in Week 15. I'm down on: A.J. Green (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) Yes, he's back at practice.  But no, the Bengals aren't exactly playing for anything the rest of this season.  Why would they rush Green back?  Just to beat the Steelers?  Well, I suppose it's possible.  But even if A.J. does suit up on Sunday, I still wouldn't have him anywhere near my top-10.  I'm putting this here so A.J. Green owners know to have a backup plan.  But not only that, I'd use that backup plan regardless of his status this week. TEs 1.Tyler Eifert  2.Travis Kelce   3.Kyle Rudolph  4.Jimmy Graham    5.Greg Olsen  6.Delanie Walker 7.Zach Ertz   8.Cameron Brate  9.Jordan Reed 10.Antonio Gates 11.Ladarius Green 12.Martellus Bennett  13.Eric Ebron 14.Jermaine Gresham 15.Hunter Henry Last week I wasn't really too high or low on many TEs versus the ESPN experts, but I did point out to Jordan Reed owners that they'd better have a Plan B.  Reed was back at practice as of last Wednesday, but I didn't think he had much of a chance to play in Week 14.  In fact, I thought it was kind of crappy for all of the ESPN experts to rank Reed like a top-5 fantasy TE when so many readers are looking at those rankings with their fantasy playoffs on the line.  As it turned out, Reed did play against Philly but wasn't involved much.  He played just 10 of 48 offensive snaps and only had one catch for 10 yards.  He'll obviously be difficult to trust in your fantasy playoffs, and I barely have him in my top-10 this week (even in an amazing matchup against Carolina)... I'm high on: Kyle Rudolph (ESPN #8, ME #3) When a tight end is averaging 10 targets in his last 3 games, it's hard not to rank him in the top-3.  So you know what?  I did.  Touchdowns are difficult to predict, but I think 5 catches for 60 yards is a near certainty for Rudolph this week.  If he finds the endzone, he'll likely end up right where I ranked him. I'm down on: Jason Witten (ESPN #14, ME NOT RANKED)  I'm down on Jordan Reed versus the experts (for the reasons I mentioned above), but I have to mention Witten again here.  Hey ESPN experts!  Quit trying to make "Witten" happen!!!  The veteran TE has averaged just 4 catches for 32 yards in his last 3 games.  He's topped 66 receiving yards in a game just once this year.  I can't see ranking him in my top-15. DEF 1.Seahawks  2.Bills 3.Chiefs  4.Ravens  5.Texans 6.Vikings 7.Dolphins 8.Packers 9.Falcons 10.Giants 11.Patriots 12.Lions 13.Broncos 14.Cardinals  15.Steelers  There were LOTS of turnovers in Week 14, and thus plenty of good fantasy defenses.  I stayed high on the Chiefs for the third week in a row (ESPN #16, ME #6), even though they were playing against the Raiders.  They played great on Thursday night, and Tyreek Hill returned a punt all the way to the house.  The Chiefs finished as the #8 fantasy defense in my league, but pretty much any other week they would've been in the top-5 with that performance.  I'm still high on them this week (ESPN #6, ME #3), but at least ESPN is bringing them up close to where they should be ranked. I was down on the Jets (ESPN #11, ME NOT RANKED), who had a decent matchup in San Fran but who are also just not a good defense.  They're a bottom-5 fantasy defense on the season, and they were a bottom-5 fantasy defense in Week 14.  This week, the ESPN experts still ranked them at 16th, with a couple of the guys tagging them in their top-10!  I realize Tannehill is out, but I still can't see trusting the Jets D in your fantasy playoffs. I'm not too high/low on many defenses versus the experts this week, but I say keep rolling the Chiefs out there and stay away from the freaking Jets! I started picking all of the games against the spread beginning in Week 12.  So far, here are my results: Week 12: 9-7 Week 13: 8-7 Week 14: 9-7 Below are my results from last week with my correct picks in BOLD, followed by my picks for Week 15.  I'm also putting 3 games in BOLD for my Week 15 picks as my "locks".  Watch me miss all of them... Week 14 results: 9-7 OAK @ KC (KC -3) PIT @ BUF (PIT -2) DEN @ TEN (DEN +1) WAS @ PHI (WAS even) ARI @ MIA (ARI +1) MIN @ JAC (MIN -3.5) HOU @ IND (HOU +6.5) SD @ CAR (CAR -1) CIN @ CLE (CLE +6) CHI @ DET (DET -8) NYJ @ SF (SF -2.5) NO @ TB (TB -2.5) ATL @ LA (ATL -6) SEA @ GB (GB +3) DAL @ NYG (DAL -3) BAL @ NE (NE -7) Week 15 picks LA @ SEA (LA +16.5) MIA @ NYJ (MIA -2.5) GB @ CHI (GB -6.5) CLE @ BUF (BUF -10) PHI @ BAL (BAL -5.5) TEN @ KC (KC -5) PIT @ CIN (PIT -3) DET @ NYG (DET +4.5) IND @ MIN (IND +4.5) JAC @ HOU (HOU -6) NO @ ARI (ARI -2.5) SF @ ATL (SF +13.5) OAK @ SD (OAK -2.5) NE @ DEN (NE -3) TB @ DAL (TB +7) CAR @ WAS (CAR +6.5) Good luck to everyone in Week 15!   (Except you, Andy...) Cheers, Bart