2016 Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

Seeing as how I barely missed the playoffs in my league, I've been paying close attention to what would have happened if I had found a way to get into that 6th playoff spot.  Well, the "what if" game is driving me nuts. I would've won in the first round in the championship bracket, and I would've won in the semifinal last week!  In fact, I scored the most points in the entire league last week.  Ugh.  What a kick in the gut.  The "What if" game is starting to annoy me, but I can't stop.  I'll have my eye on the championship game and wonder what if...?

But those are the breaks in fantasy football.  Sometimes your team is great all season and craps the bed in the playoffs.  Sometimes you miss the playoffs and then your team is playing great at the end of the season when it doesn't matter.  I'm sure there were tons of Drew Brees owners in Week 15 asking "Where was that last week?!?"  Doesn't always work out that way, does it?

Anyway, it's the last week of the fantasy season for most people, and hopefully for you that means a potential championship.  Either way, this is my last rankings of the season.  I'll probably get out a "Year End Review" article and maybe even a "Way Too Early 2017 Rankings" piece in the next month or so.  After that, who knows?  I'll try to keep up with the rankings, but it could be something that falls to the wayside in the months/years to come.  Time will tell...

For now, let's do the rankings for one last time in 2016!

QBs 1.Drew Brees     2.Tom Brady      3.Aaron Rodgers   4.Andrew Luck  5.Matt Ryan 6.Philip Rivers   7.Cam Newton  8.Ben Roethlisberger  9.Derek Carr 10.Kirk Cousins  11.Jameis Winston   12.Russell Wilson   13.Dak Prescott   14.Marcus Mariota 15.Tyrod Taylor  16.Matthew Stafford   17.Eli Manning     18.Colin Kaepernick 19.Carson Palmer  20.Matt Barkley Last week I was high on Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #10, ME #4) against the lowly Browns, who give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  However, they also give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and that's who did most of the damage for the Bills in this game.  Still, Tyrod nearly finished as a top-12 fantasy QB, so it wasn't all bad.  However, it was mostly bad for the guy I was down last week: Jameis Winston (ESPN #11, ME #20).  Winston only had 1 touchdown in his previous 2 games combined, but the Cowboys actually did give up 2 passing TDs to Jameis.  But they also picked him off 3 times, and Winston finished as the #17 fantasy QB (much lower than where the ESPN guys ranked him). This week my QB rankings actually mirror ESPN's consensus rankings pretty well, so I don't have a guy I'm high/low on versus the experts.  On to the running backs!  RBs 1.Ezekiel Elliott 2.Le'Veon Bell  3.David Johnson  4.LeSean McCoy      5.DeMarco Murray 6.Jordan Howard  7.Latavius Murray 8.Devonta Freeman     9.Todd Gurley 10.LeGarrette Blount  11.Lamar Miller 12.Carlos Hyde     13.Spencer Ware    14.Jonathan Stewart    15.Jeremy Hill         16.Rob Kelley   17.Doug Martin    18.Thomas Rawls 19.Jay Ajayi   20.Frank Gore  21.Ty Montgomery  22.Bilal Powell  23.Kenneth Farrow  24.Ryan Mathews 25.Mark Ingram  26.Kenneth Dixon  27.Dion Lewis  28.Derrick Henry 29.Tevin Coleman 30.Terrance West   31.Adrian Peterson 32.Isaiah Crowell 33.Justin Forsett  34.Rashad Jennings 35.Mike Gillislee  36.Darren Sproles 37.Dwayne Washington 38.Tim Hightower 39.T.J. Yeldon   40.Paul Perkins Last week I was high on Kenneth Farrow (ESPN #26, ME #19), as I expected a heavy workload against the porous Raider rush defense.  I predicted he would get his first NFL touchdown and would easily be an RB2, but that was NOT the case.  While he did get 17 touches, he only turned that into 53 total yards and also lost a fumble.  The waiver wire pickup didn't produce much for fantasy owners looking for some extra help in Week 15. I was down on Jay Ajayi (ESPN #12, ME #23) who only had 1 TD in his last 5 games and less than 80 rushing yards in each of those contests.  That trend continued, as Ajayi managed just 51 rushing yards and didn't score for the third straight week.  He nearly finished outside of the top-40 RBs, and it's difficult to even rank him in my top-20 this week in Buffalo (who gives up top-10 fantasy numbers to opposing RBs this season). I'm still high on Farrow and down on Ajayi versus the ESPN experts, but I'm not going to get too deep into my comparisons this week because I won't have a recap next week (since I won't be doing Week 17 rankings).  I will say that I'm high on guys like Derrick Henry and Mike Gillislee versus the ESPN experts.  Both are #2 RBs, but the Bills and Titans run the ball a TON and I like both of these guys in plus matchups.  I'm down on Rashad Jennings, who I finally waived in my league.  I'm not planning to use him tomorrow night, so I figured I'd let someone else roll the dice with the veteran.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Paul Perkins ramp up here at the end of the year and turn out to be the guy in 2017. WRs 1.Odell Beckham, Jr.   2.Antonio Brown     3.T.Y. Hilton  4.Mike Evans   5.Jordy Nelson  6.Julio Jones 7.Brandin Cooks  8.Julian Edelman 9.Dez Bryant 10.Demaryius Thomas  11.Michael Thomas 12.Michael Crabtree  13.Doug Baldwin  14.Emmanuel Sanders  15.Amari Cooper   16.Golden Tate  17.Tyrell Williams  18.Davante Adams  19.Taylor Gabriel 20.DeSean Jackson   21.Alshon Jeffery  22.Dontrelle Inman  23.Jarvis Landry  24.Ty Montgomery   25.Kenny Britt  26.Tyreek Hill    27.Rishard Matthews  28.Tyler Lockett    29.Malcolm Mitchell  30.Larry Fitzgerald  31.Stefon Diggs    32.Jordan Matthews  33.Donte Moncrief  34.Pierre Garcon     35.Willie Snead   36.Sammy Watkins 37.Sterling Shephard 38.Jamison Crowder 39.Steve Smith, Sr.  40.DeAndre Hopkins 41.Mike Wallace  42.Tyler Boyd  43.Kelvin Benjamin 44.Terrelle Pryor, Sr.     45.Cameron Meredith   46.Robby Anderson 47.Ted Ginn 48.Allen Robinson  49.Randall Cobb 50.J.J. Nelson I was WAY high on Taylor Gabriel last week (ESPN #35, ME #15), who has been a top-5 fantasy WR in the second half of the season.  He had 6 TDs in his previous 6 games, and he found the endzone against the 49ers to go along with his 60 receiving yards.  He ended up right where I ranked him as the #15 fantasy WR in week 15.  I'm hoping Julio will be back this week as I try to win the Consolation Championship (and a few extra bingo balls for next year's draft), but I still have Gabriel ranked in my top-20.  ESPN moved him up a mere four spots to #31, as they continue to disregard his fantasy production in the last 8 WEEKS!  I'm also still really high on Tyler Lockett versus the experts (ESPN #47, ME #28).  This guy has put up HUGE numbers in two of his last three games, as he's been flashing that playmaking ability we all thought he'd show all season.  It's not too late to jump on the Lockett bandwagon...!!! Last week I was down on A.J. Green (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) because I didn't think the Bengals would rush him back (they didn't, but all of the ESPN experts ranked him not only that he would play, but that he'd be a top-10 play).  What about his week?  Personally, I don't see why the Bengals would start him against the Texans in a meaningless game for them, so I didn't rank A.J. again.  I also continue to be down on Larry Fitzgerald versus the ESPN experts.  He has one double digit fantasy point game in his last 9 contests, and he has just one touchdown against the Seahawks in his last 9 games against the Legion of Boom.  He's just nowhere close to a top 15 or 20 fantasy WR for me.  Also, DeAndre Hopkins?  Really?!?  ESPN ranked him at #22 this week.  Wow.  This is another guy with just one double digit fantasy game in his last 9.  I guess they think Tom Savage will magically get the ball to him, but I don't have that kind of faith in the backup to Brock Osweiler. TEs 1.Greg Olsen  2.Kyle Rudolph  3.Travis Kelce  4.Zach Ertz  5.Tyler Eifert   6.Delanie Walker  7.Cameron Brate              8.Hunter Henry 9.Jimmy Graham  10.Antonio Gates  11.Martellus Bennett    12.Jordan Reed 13.Dion Sims 14.Eric Ebron 15.Charles Clay Last week I was high on Kyle Rudolph (ESPN #8, ME #3), who was averaging 10 targets in his last 3 games.  Well, he got 10 targets again and turned that into nearly 100 receiving yards.  Rudolph finished as a top-5 fantasy TE against the Colts, and only Cameron Brate was ahead of him among the top ranked TEs heading into Week 15.  This week I still have him ranked 5 spots higher than the ESPN experts, and I don't see why he'd be anything other than a top-5 fantasy TE against Green Bay.  I also kind of like Dion Sims this week, who NONE of the ESPN experts ranked.  I guess they don't believe in his 4 TDs in his last 4 games, but why not?  Meanwhile, they continue to rank guys like Pitta and Witten in their top-12.  I swear.  Sometimes it's like they're just doing their weekly rankings based on preseason rankings from August.  I just don't get it... Speaking of Witten, as I am EVERY week, I was down on him versus the experts in Week 15 (ESPN #14, ME NOT RANKED).  He was averaging just 4 catches for 32 yards in his previous 3 games.  He actually caught all 10 of his targets against the Bucs on Sunday night (a season high for catches in a game), but he only had 51 receiving yards and lost a fumble.  He finished outside of the top-25 TEs in Week 15, and I continue to be astonished that the experts rank him...every.....week.  Also, you may notice nearly all of the ESPN guys ranked Ladarius Green this week.  This is a guy who was dealing with migraines in the preseason and is still in the concussion protocol after a hit last week.  I'd say he has about a 1% chance of playing against Baltimore, so you might want to have a backup plan if you were thinking of starting him in your fantasy championship. DEF 1.Patriots        2.Chiefs  3.Seahawks  4.Chargers 5.Giants 6.Broncos  7.Titans 8.Packers 9.Steelers 10.Bengals 11.Bills 12.Cowboys  13.Texans 14.Ravens  15.Bucs I wasn't too high/low on many defenses versus the experts last week, but I said to keep rolling the Chiefs out there and stay away from the freaking Jets!  How'd that advice pan out?  Well, the Chiefs were still a top-10 fantasy defense, and the Jets were a bottom-5 unit.  Seriously, ESPN.  Stop ranking the Jets defense!  They are THE worst fantasy defense over the last 4 weeks and a bottom-5 squad on the season.  At least this week in New England, all of the experts should be ranking them dead last, right?  Not Matthew Berry though.  He has them as his #20 fantasy defense in Week 16.  Maybe he's just trying to be contrarian to his colleagues, but to me, that's just dumb.  Sure, the Jets could get lucky and return a fumble for a TD or something.  But any defense could.  And you know damn well the Jets are giving up 30+ points to Tommy and the Patriots, and they probably won't even sack him once! Meanwhile, Berry didn't even rank Dallas, and the consensus ranking is 26th among the experts.  Maybe I'm way off in ranking them in my top-12, but they've been a top-10 fantasy defense in their last 3 games, and Matthew Stafford may continue to struggle playing through that injured middle finger on his throwing hand.  I think this game has a chance to get ugly, and I like the Cowboy D in this one.  I also like the Steelers and Bucs as top-15 plays this week, but NONE of the experts like the Bucs and just a couple have the Steelers up that high. Anyway, let's wrap this thing up with my picks versus the spread, which I started doing in Week 12.  So far, here are my results: Week 12: 9-7 Week 13: 8-7 Week 14: 9-7 Week 15: 8-8   NOTE: Week 15 LOCKS: 2-1 (PIT, ARI, NE) Below are my results from last week with my correct picks in BOLD, followed by my picks for Week 16.  Like last week, I'll also put 3 games in BOLD for my Week 16 picks as my "locks".  Let's see if I can finish strong with my picks versus the spread, and I'll give a recap in my year end review piece. Week 15 results: 8-8 LA @ SEA (LA +16.5) MIA @ NYJ (MIA -2.5) GB @ CHI (GB -6.5) CLE @ BUF (BUF -10) PHI @ BAL (BAL -5.5) TEN @ KC (KC -5) PIT @ CIN (PIT -3) DET @ NYG (DET +4.5) IND @ MIN (IND +4.5) JAC @ HOU (HOU -6) NO @ ARI (ARI -2.5) SF @ ATL (SF +13.5) OAK @ SD (OAK -2.5) NE @ DEN (NE -3) TB @ DAL (TB +7) CAR @ WAS (CAR +6.5) Week 16 picks NYG @ PHI (NYG -2.5) MIA @ BUF (BUF -3.5) NYJ @ NE (NE -16.5) TEN @ JAC (TEN -4.5) MIN @ GB (GB -6.5) SD @ CLE (CLE +6.5) WAS @ CHI (CHI +3.5) ATL @ CAR (ATL -2.5) IND @ OAK (IND +3.5) TB @ NO (TB +3) ARI @ SEA (ARI +8.5) SF @ LA (SF +3.5) CIN @ HOU (HOU -1) BAL @ PIT (BAL +5.5) DEN @ KC (DEN +4) DET @ DAL (DAL -7) Good luck to everyone in Week 16!   (Except you, Billy...) Cheers, Bart