I've been looking at
rankings out there on the interweb, and I've noticed several players who I have
ranked much lower than others have them ranked. I also realized there are a few who I don't even have in my top 190 but made it into the top
100 in some people's lists. So I thought I would post a few notes about these guys who I'm
down on this year (by comparison).
Some of these are obvious and others are late rounders anyway. If
you looked at my rankings and noticed that a guy like Marshawn Lynch was pretty
far down the board, I'd call that obvious. If you completely forgot about
someone like Steve Breaston, well good for you. That would be a less
obvious one, and although I didn't forget about him, it's OK if you did. Trust
me. I'm a scientist.
I'll try to give some
comments as to why I'll let someone else draft these guys. Some of the
comments I think are quite valid, while others are more of just a gut feel of
mine. So I understand if you completely disagree with me having a guy
like Jordy Nelson on here. I don't have a lot to back that one up, seeing
as how he blew up last year and he still has Rodgers throwing to him in that
high powered offense. I'm just going to chalk that one up to my big gut,
along with a few others. Anyway, let's get to it.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch: Lots of people have Beast Mode ranked
ahead of guys like Matt Forte and Darren McFadden. Wow. I'm not going to claim I can predict injuries,
but this guy misses one or two games every year, and in 2010 he only played in
four contests. Yes, he had his best season last year, but let’s
remember he had something to play for (straight cash, homie). I
don’t trust his motivation, and I just read something hot off the press that he
got arrested last night for what sounds like a DUI. I don’t like
unpredictable guys like this on my squad, and my prediction is a mediocre
season.
Fred Jackson: Coming off an injury and at age 31, I think Fred’s going a
little too high for me. If I’m going to take an older guy, I’d much
rather have someone like Gore or Turner. In fact, CJ Spiller a few
rounds later is much more interesting to me than Jackson anyway. I
think this year will be closer to a 50/50 split with these two, with Spiller
even getting the majority of the touches by the end of the year.
Roy Helu (or any other Redskins RB): As a Redskins fan, I hope Helu has a great
year. But as a fantasy footballer, I’ll let someone else draft
him. How can you trust Shanahan when it comes to fantasy? I'll
go ahead and mention Evan Royster here as
well because I don’t even have him on my radar, and others have him ranked
as a top backup. Maybe I’m showing too much love for the University of Richmond grad,
but I think Timmy’s knee will be just fine. Any way you slice it though,
I'm too close to this situation to take any of them.
Any Carolina Panthers RB: Here's another entire group that I'll be staying away from. I feel
like I end up with DeAngelo Williams just about every year, and lately that's
because he keeps falling and falling to a point at which he appears to have value. Let me tell you, it's not worth it. The
same can be said for Jonathan Stewart, and now they've also added Mike Tolbert
to the mix. I thought the fantasy situation was bad last year when Cam
Newton emerged to vulture the goal line TDs, but now Tolbert is there too? I might adjust my rankings to lower all three of these guys even more,
but in reality, there's no way I'm drafting any of them.
Pierre Thomas: I’ve been burned by Pierre in the past, so maybe there's
too much emotion involved with this pick, but this is another guy who always
seems to have some kind of nagging injury. He might get 100 carries and a
handful of TDs, but I think Mark Ingram becomes the Thunder to Sproles's
Lightning this year.
A few others who I’ll let someone
else take in the later rounds…
Joseph
Addai: I’m probably not drafting any
Patriot RB, but if I do I’ll take one of the youngins.
Bernard
Scott: I think The Law Firm will get the
same kind of workload they gave to Cedric Benson, meaning Scott gets 6 or 7
touches a game. Even if Green-Ellis gets hurt, what has Bernard
Scott ever done?
Kevin
Smith: I like Jahvid Best to have a big
year, and the only burn Kevin Smith should get will be a handful of touches in
the first two weeks when Leshoure is serving a suspension. Even if the first two guys on the depth chart BOTH go down with injuries, Smith probably will too with his injury history.
Joe
McKnight: You recall that Tebow’s in town,
right? I don’t like Greene as much as in previous years, which means
I really don’t like McKnight as a
backup’s backup.
Wide Receivers
Jordy
Nelson: There’s no denying the season
Jordy had last year, but no way am I chasing those 15 TDs considering he had
two in each of his first three years in the league. I’m sure he’ll still have an OK year, but I
think he’ll come back to earth in a big way (I’m thinking about 800 yards and 7
TDs). Keep in mind that 5 of those 15
TDs came in the last two games of the season (which Greg Jennings wasn’t
playing, and one of which was QB’d by Matt Flynn—3 TD game).
Denarius
Moore: I don’t even know why I ranked
him. He might have to come off in the
next updated rankings. The more I look
at Darrius Heyward-Bey’s game log from last season, the more I think he and
Carson Palmer have the connection going, not Palmer and Moore. When I look at Moore’s game log, it’s the
most inconsistent-looking thing I’ve ever seen.
I probably won’t take any Oakland WR. But if I do, I’m jumping on
the Heyward-Bey train.
Randy
Moss: You’re going to believe Harbaugh’s
statement that Randy is the 49ers “Best Receiver Right Now”? Really???
I’m pretty sure he also said Michael Crabtree had “the best hands [he’d]
ever seen on a wide receiver”. OK,
Jim. If you want to draft a 49er, take
David Akers in the last round. Otherwise
it’s just going to end in tears. I’m not
ranking Moss. I think he’s done.
A few more quick ones…
Laurent
Robinson: I don’t trust Gabbert throwing to
anyone, but if I was going to take a Jacksonville WR, I’d take a flier on Blackmon, not Robinson.
Plaxico
Burress: People are still ranking him? Sure,
give me Braylon Edwards while you’re at it too!
I think he’s currently a free agent, but even if someone picks him up,
no thanks.
Steve
Breaston: Jonathan Baldwin has emerged as
the clear #2 in KC. Even if you want to draft him in the last round
because you want to name your team “Breaston Plants”, don’t do it.
James
Jones: We know Rodgers will have a huge
year and he’ll spread it around, but how many times are you going to hope that
this guy has some kind of breakout year? It’s not going to
happen. I think Randall Cobb finishes with more fantasy points,
easily.
Vincent
Brown: Again, not a lot of value with
Floyd, Meachem, and oh yeah Antonio Gates on the depth chart. Brown
will be starving for catches along with Eddie Royal, who is also in the mix.
Quarterbacks
Alex
Smith and Joe Flacco: I’m just going to give
you two because I’m pretty high on QBs in general. I plan on taking one in the first couple of
rounds, so hopefully this isn't relevant to me personally. In fact, I
highly recommend not waiting to draft a QB until the likes of Smith and Flacco
are some of your better options. Because let’s be real: these guys
aren’t going to win you a fantasy football championship. Take a
chance on a guy like Andrew Luck or Matt Flynn (and even get them a couple
rounds later probably). Or maybe you take an even riskier chance on
a guy like RGIII a couple rounds earlier. Yes, there are some
unknowns there, but you have a better chance of striking fantasy gold with
these guys. Meanwhile, you know what you’re getting with Smith and
Flacco, and it’s called mediocrity. Trust me, if you try to anchor
your squad with a guy like Luck or Flynn and it doesn’t work out, you can
always find a mediocre QB on the waiver wire to fill in.
Tight Ends
Tony
Gonzalez: I can’t believe he was still
putting up good numbers at the ripe old age of 35 last year, but he did. And it’s not like I can point to his
production declining steadily over the last few years (because it hasn’t). I just think his ceiling is about 750 yards
and 5 or 6 TDs. On the other hand, there
are a few players getting ranked/drafted behind him who I think could
ultimately sneak into that top 5 TE by the end of the year, namely guys like
Pettigrew, Cook, or even Tamme (IF
Peyton is healthy). Similar to the
argument I made against Smith and Flacco, I’d just rather take a risk on one of
the younger guys to breakout this year than take the safe pick of Gonzalez in
the tier I have him ranked.
Owen
Daniels: I want to like this guy, but
neither the yards nor the TDs have ever been there. He has a lot of
talent, but I don’t see the Texans ever using him in a fantasy-productive way. Again, this might be the last year I have
this guy ranked at all, unless Arian Foster somehow gets eliminated from the picture.
Kellen
Winslow: Zach Miller didn’t exactly tear it
up for Seattle last year, but he’s still around. I don’t see this
being a situation like New England where two tight ends can have fantasy value,
seeing as how Matt Flynn isn’t Tom Brady. In fact, I think neither
will have value because both will have very average numbers.
Defenses
49ers: Every year in my league, someone
drafts a defense in the 9th or 10th round, and what
inevitably follows is a big rush on them.
There may have been a time when I was involved in such tomfoolery, but
now I think it's silly. What
also tends to happen just about every year for me is I won’t even finish the
season with the defense that I drafted.
By week 11, 12, or sometimes even sooner, I’ll be playing the matchups
and using the waiver wire. The bottom
line is this: I’m not going to draft the 49ers D when I might still be able to
get the likes of a Peyton Hillis or a Greg Little. It’s just not worth it. Now with respect to the 49ers, I think
they’ll probably have a good season. But
if you make it to the fantasy playoffs, will you feel confident
enough to start them AT New England?
You just might be hunting for a better matchup on the waiver wire at
that point.
NYG: Virtually no one drafts two
defenses, so I only rank 12, and the Giants just don’t make my list. Everyone else seems to be ranking them around
6th or 7th, but I don’t really get it. They were 27th in yards per game
last year and 25th in total points surrendered. I realize they were 7th and 17th
in those categories in 2010, respectively, but I don’t think you can blame all
of that on injuries. I’d rather have a
defense like Seattle or Buffalo, who should have easier schedules and should also be available in the last couple of rounds.
OK. I’ll
give you a kicker…
Garrett Hartley: I understand why people are
ranking him in their top 10 kickers. The
Saints score a lot of points. I get
it. But back in April, the Saints also
signed 42-year-old John Kasey to a one year deal, so there will be a competition in training camp. Kasey had a great season in 2011 filling in for
the injured Hartley. By the way, Hartley’s injury
was a hip flexor. It’s not like he
broke his wrist while dancing around like a Gramatica on Adderall. Oh that’s right. In 2009, Hartley was suspended for 4 games
for testing positive for that. I
remember because I drafted him that year, waived him a week later, picked up
some other kicker (who cares who it was), and everything was just fine. Somehow I managed to still finish 2nd
in the league that year. Whew! Thanks for nothing, Hartley. Look, don’t spend too much time thinking
about which kicker to take. When it
comes to his bye week, you might end up waiving him anyway. The only reason I even include kickers at all
in this blog is for comic relief.
I hope some of this helped explain my rankings a little more and maybe even give you a few nuggets of knowledge to consider when you’re drafting.
I hope some of this helped explain my rankings a little more and maybe even give you a few nuggets of knowledge to consider when you’re drafting.
Cheers,
Bart
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