Tuesday, July 10, 2012

2012 Fantasy Football Rankings

Blog post #2.  Really rockin and rollin here.  As promised, here are my super early pre-training camp rankings.  I'll definitely be updating them regularly, more so once free agents get signed, injuries occur, contracts get sorted out, and preseason games start up.  I'm not sure if training camp will alter my rankings too much, but you never know.


A few notes before I get to it.  My rankings are based on my league, so the scoring might be a little different than your league (but probably close enough).  We don't do PPR and QBs get 6 points per TD instead of 4, but other than that it's a pretty standard Yahoo points system.  I mentioned in the first blog that we are a keeper league.  We can't keep anyone drafted in the first two rounds and you can only keep a guy for two additional seasons (so you really get him for 3 total).  My keepers this year are looking like Hakeem Nicks (drafted in 2010 round 3) and Ryan Mathews (drafted in 2011 round 5).  I'm really hoping for a big year from Mathews since I can keep him for yet another season.  One guy in our league lucked out on Arian Foster a couple years ago, so this is the last year he can be kept thank goodness.


All that being said, I'll still include these guys (and other keepers that I'm projecting from my league).  Just keep in mind that since I'll be starting my draft with one RB and one WR, I might have QBs and TEs ranked a little higher than normal because those are some of my needs.  However, I'm typically of the mindset to take the best available player, so maybe it's not too skewed.  Also keep in mind that our keeper line is going to start around #30 (since I included about 7 potential keepers in the first 30), so I do weigh that a little when considering someone in my draft's third round and beyond.  Pre-game speech is over.  Let's do this!



1. Arian Foster: A clear #1 to me, sadly undraftable in my league due to keeper status.
2. Ray Rice: Can't go wrong with little Ray.  Some have him over Foster, including my fiancee.
3. Calvin Johnson: Megatron is a freak.  No problem with him #1 overall if you so choose.
4. Aaron Rodgers: I hated to give up this keeper (finally).  He and Brees did me right over the years.
5. LeSean McCoy: So many touches, so many opportunities to score.
6. Tom Brady: You know the Patriots added Brandon Lloyd, right...?
7. Maurice Jones-Drew: Most touches in last 3 years, but the dude is still only 27!
8. Drew Brees: Not sure what's up with the contract situation, but they'll figure it out.
9. Chris Johnson: I think Locker takes over the Titans this year and CJ2K is back with motivation.
10.Ryan Mathews: Sproles gone in 2011.  Tolbert now gone in 2012.  Give him the ball, Norv!
11.Matthew Stafford: Maybe #11 is high for Stafford, but I think he can repeat last year.
12.Larry Fitzgerald: Super consistent. He and Kolb showed good chemistry at times.
13.Greg Jennings: The last of three WRs I'd consider taking in the first round.
14.Matt Forte: Looks like he's holding out and Michael Bush brought to town.  Monitor closely.
15.Darren McFadden: If healthy, with Bush out of town, I think he could be a top 5 RB.
16.Jimmy Graham: I like him over Gronk because I think he'll see lots of Meachem's gone targets.
17.Rob Gronkowski: He and Graham will both be keepers in my league, but I'd draft either this high.
18.Steven Jackson: Had a great season despite his squad.  I think he finds the endzone more this year.
19.Adrian Peterson: Super recovery from torn ACL or hype?  Risky 2nd round pick, could pay off big.
20.Jamaal Charles: He tore his ACL early, so he should be good to go.  Hillis around, but that's OK.
21.Trent Richardson: Hate to rank a rookie so high, but all signs point to him getting lots of touches.
22.Roddie White: Still will see a ton of redzone targets even though Julio is emerging.
23.Ahmad Bradshaw: Wilson might get some touches but Jacobs is gone.  Every down type of back.
24.DeMarco Murray: Small sample set before injury in '11 but the workload is his in Big D.
25.Frank Gore: 49ers add Jacobs and James in addition to Hunter who also will steal touches.
26.Michael Turner: He's hit the dreaded 3-0.  I think it's time for Jacquizz to get some serious reps.
27.Andre Johnson: Hard for me to trust him after having him last year.  Still one of the best if healthy.
28.Wes Welker: Lloyd in town but there will be plenty to go around.  Brady tosses 50 TDs this year.
29.Mike Wallace: Antonio Brown emerging but Wallace still the top dog.
30.Brandon Marshall: I like him and Cutler back together.  I might even move him up the board a bit.
31.AJ Green: I don't see a sophomore slump here.  If anything I see more TDs.
32.Julio Jones: If he does get some of Roddie's redzone targets, he should be 10 spots higher.
33.Hakeem Nicks: My other keeper.  Injury worries me with him, but I do like him over Cruz.
34.Brandon Lloyd: How many times will I mention the former Redskin? Brady will get him 10+ TDs
35.Victor Cruz:: I don't know how much I trust him to keep it going, but hard to ignore 2011 numbers.
36.Antonio Gates: I think he stays healthy and bounces back in a huge way.
37.Marshawn Lynch: Do you really think he stays healthy and has that kind of season again?!?
38.Cam Newton: Getting into keepers in my league. Could be biggest prize if not kept from '11.
39.Michael Vick: Would have him ahead of Cam in non-keeper league (he's almost 5 in dog years).
40.Jason Witten: Super consistent, doesn't miss games.  Too bad he's a Cowboy.
41.Darren Sproles: I'm not big on this little guy.  I think Ingram gets more of timeshare this year.
42.Beanie Wells: Tough to still get workhorses this late in the draft, but he can be one.
43.Reggie Bush: Was getting 20+ touches last few games of '11 season.  Sounds motivated.
44.Green-Ellis: Maybe he'll split carries, but what has Bernard Scott ever done?
45.Fred Jackson: This guy is 31 years old.  I think CJ Spiller takes the reins midway through the year.
46.Isaac Redman: Everyone has given up on Mendenhall's knee.  Redman can take over nicely.
47.Doug Martin: Will monitor this in preseason.  Not sure I believe the hype...yet.
48.Willis McGahee: Another 31 year old (in October), but seems older.  Hillman on my sleeper list.
49.Vernon Davis: Everyone else seems to like Finley and Hernandez over Davis.  Not me.
50.Jermichael Finley: Grouped these 3 together due to TE run area. This is my order, take your pick!
51.Aaron Hernandez: For some reason I think he only gets 6 or 7 of Brady's TDs, but still lots of yards.
52.Tony Romo: I'll give Romo some credit, he can put up numbers...and fantasy playoffs end week 16.
53.Philip Rivers: VJax gone but Meachem in. I think Gates and Mathews help him more this year too.
54.Marques Colston: Probably should be higher, but Brees spreads it around too much for me.
55.Dez Bryant: Third year WR.  An injury-free season could land him in the top-10 for receivers.
56.Percy Harvin: If he gets traded, he could move up or down.  Will do well wherever he lands though.
57.Steve Smith: This guy has given me headaches in the past, but I think Cam likes him so I like him.
58.Miles Austin: And if Dez doesn't stay healthy, then bump this guy up to top 50.
59.Jordy Nelson: I have him lower than most, but I like Jennings and Finley to do more this year.
60.Dwayne Bowe: Still the #1 WR in KC for now. Baldwin could breakout, but I say 1 more year.
61.Demaryius Thomas: I want to rank this guy in my top-50.  Peyton's going to make him a star.
62.Jeremy Maclin: So many good WRs to choose from.  Maclin this late seems like a steal.
63.Eli Manning: One spot over his big bro.  I'll keep these two side by side, at least until week 2 or 3.
64.Peyton Manning: You want him? You take him.  I should probably have him lower. 
65.Stevie Johnson: The clear #1 WR in Buffalo, and they are often playing from behind. 
66.Vincent Jackson: I think Mike Williams bounces back and VJax isn't stealing the show in Tampa.
67.Kenny Britt: Too much talent to not get him the ball.
68.DeShaun Jackson: Too much of a headcase for me to take him, but too talented to rank any lower.
69.Antonio Brown: Might move up my board, but still some "#1" receivers below this line..
70.Eric Decker: If Peyton's healthy, think Brandon Stokely (2004).  Wait, Stokely's a Bronco too?!
71.Torrey Smith: The Mike Wallace of the Ravens.  If Joe can just get him the ball, he could explode.
72.Jahvid Best: Health is an issue, but a full season on that high powered offense would be huge.
73.Shonn Greene: I think Tebow steals goal line carries. Greene has had too many chances to be #1.
74.Roy Helu: As a Redskins fan, I don't trust Shanny when it comes to fantasy. 
75.Donald Brown: Should get a lot of carries and probably dump off passes, but can the Colts score?
76.James Starks: No serious threat to his touches right now with Ryan Grant gone.
77.Robert Meachem: I like him over Malcom Floyd for now, but that may change.
78.Pierre Garcon: This early and another Redskin?  I think RGIII and Pierre will make some magic.
79.Lance Moore: With Meachem gone, should get more targets (unless they all go to Jimmy).
80.CJ Spiller: My first #2 RB in the list.  He's the future.  I think it's time for Fred to "drop dead".
81.Santonio Holmes: I've never had him in any league ever.  Probably will drop him a bit more.
82.Reggie Wayne: Yeah he's still around.  Luck has to try to throw to someone!
83.Anquan Boldin: Seems to be in decline, and Torrey Smith has become the dude in Bmore.
84.Malcom Floyd: I think Rivers has a much better year.  Plenty of passes to go around.
85.Sidney Rice: Could quickly become Flynn's favorite target, but who knows?
86.Mark Ingram: This guy could be a sneaky-good keeper.  Might have to move him up.
87.Stevan Ridley: I trust Belichik in fantasy about as much as Shanahan.  No thanks.
88.Ben Tate: I only see him higher than this if Foster has a hamstring problem again.
89.Lagarette Blount: People forget how good he was a couple years ago.  Not sure Martin is #1.
90.Michael Bush: Could vulture some TDs from Forte.  Had nice season last year in Oakland.
91.DeAngelo Williams: I'm staying away from the crowded Carolina backfield.
92.David Wilson: I like Bradshaw to maybe have a foot injury and Wilson get a chance early on.
93.Peyton Hillis: Remember Thomas Jones still had solid season when Charles busted out.
94.Toby Gerhart: Could move higher or lower depending on AP's knee.
95.Fred Davis: Rookie QBs tend to fall in love with that tight end safety net.
96.Jacob Tamme: Going to list off a few more TEs here.  Tamme can be Dallas Clark.  We've seen it.
97.Brandon Pettigrew: If Stafford repeats, so does he.
98.Tony Gonzalez: Shocked he's still going strong.  I think this is the year he slows down a bit.
99.Jared Cook: Locker had a couple big games with him.  If he has starting gig, look out!
100.Coby Fleener: Luck's TE at Stanford.  I think there's a little chemistry here.
101.Jermaine Gresham: Dalton's second or third option, and he's improving.
102.Owen Daniels: This is the last TE I'm ranking, and this may be the last year I rank Owen Daniels.
103.Greg Little: Sleeper alert.  I'd move him up but should have no problem getting him here.
104.Mario Manningham: Not really sure if he or Crabtree will have very productive years.
105.Michael Crabtree: Like I said, I think both will be mediocre and belong around here on the list.
106.Mike Williams(TB): Looking for a rebound season with lots of attention going to VJax.
107.Denarius Moore: I don't really see ranking an Oakland WR any higher than this.
108.Darrius Heyward-Bey: Or this.
109.Justin Blackmon: Go ahead and take a chance.  You never know with a talent like this.
110.Nate Washington: Solid #2 next to Britt, but I think Jared Cook is more of #2 than Nate.
111.Titus Young: Should become clear #2, but Burleson still lingering.
112.Jonathan Baldwin: Another third year guy I like here in the later rounds, clear #2 in Kansas City.
113.Michael Floyd: Rookie WR in Arizona.  Someone has to be the #2.  Maybe they finally have one?
114.Jacquizz Rodgers: This might be the year that he really starts to cut into The Burner's carries.
115.Daniel Thomas: I'm not sure Reggie Bush and "durable" belong in the same sentence.
116.Mike Goodson: There's a theme here.  You need handcuffs if you draft guys like McFadden.
117.Isaiah Pead: Personally I believe in SJax, but if I draft him I'm also drafting this guy.
118.Shane Vereen: Who knows with the Pats?  This guy might end up the top fantasy RB on the team!
119.Jonathan Stewart: Again, I'm staying away from Carolina RBs so I'm ranking him low.
120.Mike Tolbert: Great addition to a LOADED backfield and great O-Line, but too much to divide up.
121.Felix Jones: Murray got hurt last year.  Who's to say that won't happen again?
122.Bears DEF: Week 15 at home to Green Bay, but this is a Defense you play every week.
123.Jets DEF: Solid D and love their playoff schedule. Week 14-16: @JAC,@TEN,vsSD.
124.Eagles DEF: Always in top Ds, another good playoff schedule. Week 14-16: @TB,vsCIN,@WAS.
125.49ers DEF: Not ranking higher because they play @NE & @SEA during fantasy playoffs.
126.Steelers DEF: Good D but tough division schedule. Early Bye Week 4 (fill-in needed).
127.Ravens DEF: Also a tough schedule, guys getting old, and Suggs is out for season most likely.
128.Bills DEF: Picked up Super Mario and have one of easiest schedules in the league (based on 2011).
129.Seahawks DEF: Tough young defense with a pretty easy schedule too.
130.Patriots DEF: THE easiest schedule according to 2011 records.
131.Packers DEF: Offense should keep them off the field, like NE.
132.Texans DEF: Still a good young defense playing weak rookie QBs in division.
133.Lions DEF: Tough division but good D.
134.Matt Ryan: I plan to draft a QB well before this, so I just ranked the rest who I see as worthy.
135.Big Ben: Gets sacked a lot, has some really bad games, and I hate him.  But he's not terrible.
136.Jay Cutler: Has his old friend back and will probably be a little better with him.  But it's still Cutler.
137.RGIII: Wishful thinking or potentially another Cam Newton-like season? 
138.Matt Schaub: Andre3000 staying healthy is crucial to his success.
139.Josh Freeman: Another good value as a second or third tier QB, but I'm not waiting this long.
140.Andrew Luck: Maybe take a flier on Luck and hope he does well (keeper).
141.Ronnie Brown: Here I'm ranking more handcuffs.  Ronnie's at the top since I have Mathews.
142.Ryan Williams: Beanie Wells hasn't always been 100% healthy.  Williams might be hungry too.
143.Mikel Leshoure: Suspended 2 games to start the season, but could get a shot if Best struggles.
144.Joe McKnight: I ranked Greene low due to Tebow, so I'm ranking McKnight really low.
145.Alex Green: If he's getting more of Starks's carries, he may jump up my board a bit.
146.Rashad Jennings: I'm drafting him late if I'm taking MJD early.
147.Tim Hightower: Who's to say that Helu gets all the carries?  I like Tim to split a lot with Roy.
148.Ronnie Hillman: I might have to move him up to get him too.  This could be the guy in Denver!
149.Delone Carter: Nothing too exciting here.  Neither he nor Brown were able to do much last year.
150.Bernard Scott: I don't believe he'll cut into The Law Firm's touches too much.
151.Dion Lewis: Appears to be the handcuff to have if you're a McCoy owner.
152.Bernard Pierce: Likewise, snatch up this rookie to back up Ray Ray.
153.Rashard Mendenhall: Sounds like he may go on PUP list. Own Dwyer if that happens.
154.Javon Ringer: If CJ goes down, you better have Javon in your pocket.
155.Montario Hardesty: A lot of hype about Richardson, but Hardesty could steal significant carries.
156.Robert Turbin: A good camp could move him up for me.  Lynch has injury history.
157.Mohamed Sanu: Rookie WR for Cincy could be the #2 guy for Dalton.
158.Stephen Hill: I don't trust anyone who has to catch balls from Sanchez, so he goes pretty low.
159.Brian Quick: No clear-cut #1 WR in St. Louis.  He could emerge as the guy quick......ly?
160.Danny Amendola: Or maybe he comes back as the #1 in STL.  Unclear for now.
161.Leonard Hankerson: It feels like the first time, Leonard.  Feels like the very first time.
162.Nate Burleson: Stafford is going to get a lot of yards.  Burleson will figure in to some of those.
163.Austin Collie: Welcome back, Collie.  You'll miss Peyton but Luck could like you.  We'll see.
164.Earl Bennett: I like the Vandy connection with these two, and it feels like he is #2 WR in Chicago.
165.Kevin Walter: Boy could the Texans use a solid #2 WR.  Walter has filled this same spot for years!
166.Jerome Simpson: Suspended 3 games, people will forget all about him, but he could show up big.
167.Randall Cobb: Probably should rank him a little higher, but staying down here for now.
168.Reuben Randle: I guess the #3 on NYG, but I don't see him being a viable starter in fantasy.
169.Laurent Robinson: Going to Jacksonville doesn't help his stock, but he does have skills.
170.Joseph Addai: Knowing New Englands RBs, he could end up the top dog when it's said and done.
171.Doug Baldwin: Had a solid year last season.  We'll see who Flynn goes to more often.
172.David Nelson: Another guy to put near the bottom of my list.  A forgotten, mediocre, #2 WR.
173.Roy Williams: FREE AGENT
174.Mike Sims-Walker: FREE AGENT
175.Thomas Jones: FREE AGENT
176.Jason Snelling: FREE AGENT
177.Cedric Benson: FREE AGENT
178.Ryan Grant: FREE AGENT
179.Gostkowski (bye:9)
180.Akers (bye:9)
181.Bailey (bye:5)
182.Janikowski (bye:5)
183.Henery (bye:7)
184.Bryant (bye:7)
185.Crosby (bye:10)
186.Gould (bye:6)
187.Prater (bye:7)
188.Rackers (bye:10)
189.Bironas (bye:11)
190.Hanson (bye:5)

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