Wednesday, December 23, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

I hope if you're reading this, that means you're in your championship this week.  Of course I realize that's not the case for everyone, so if you're playing for third or nothing or whatever...hey, thanks for at least clicking the link and checking my rankings!



Way back in Week 6, I had a great week and finished as the #2 most accurate ranker, and I gained a lot of new Twitter followers because of it.  If you just started following me this year and are using my rankings, welcome!  I've had some ups and downs since then, but I've mostly been pretty consistent.  Right now I'm sitting at the #37 spot among over 150 rankers in the accuracy competition, and I'm pretty sure this is the last week included in that contest.  In case you're curious, here's my accuracy rank by week through Week 15:

90
106
120 (slow start...)
34
110
2 (!!!)
13
12 (got in a little mid-season groove)
52
138 (yikes)
70
27
88
44
38

I'm hoping to finish strong both with my rankings accuracy and with my betting picks at the bottom.  As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any start/sit questions that can't be answered by the rankings and discussion below.



QBs
Obvious Start: Last week I said if you were debating between Jalen Hurts versus Kyler Murray, don't.  Kyler was my obvious start, but both guys were awesome in that game.  This week I think both guys are obvious starts, but let me mention Josh Allen here in case you were considering benching him for someone else.  He's been a top-5 fantasy QB in 4 of his last 6 games, and he's been the #2 fantasy QB in two of those contests.  The Monday night matchup at New England shouldn't scare you, especially now that Stephon Gilmore is out for the season.  If Diggs is out, I might lower Allen a spot or two.  But I think Diggs plays, and I'd have Allen as a top-5 play regardless.

Not-So-Obvious Start: The funny thing is, the guy I'm facing in the championship in my main/home/money league has both Josh Allen AND Tom Brady.  I think both guys are great starts this week, and he probably can't go wrong with either.  But I wanted to mention Brady here because he's not as obvious as Allen.  He's been a little up and down this season, but this week against the Lions he has the potential to go OFF.  With Ronald Jones likely still out, Brady just might throw the ball 40+ times again.  And Detroit's defense is just awful right now.  To add insult to injury, the Lions are dealing with COVID issues and might not have a good portion of their coaching staff in this game.  I think the Bucs will put up a ton of points in this game, and Brady should be involved in at least three of those TDs.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I've talked about guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton here in recent weeks, and I've been spot on.  You don't want to start someone like Cam this week (duh), but don't consider Big Ben either.  The Steelers are an absolute mess right now, and I have a feeling Ben is dealing with an injury that is impacting his throws.  I don't want to make an excuse for the guy, but I think he's too good to be looking this bad otherwise.  The Colts are coming to town this week, and if Ben struggled against the Bengals, I don't see how he can put up a good game against Indy.



RBs
Obvious Start: You might think Miles Sanders might not have a huge game with Jalen Hurts running a bit more and that changing up the gameplan a bit, but I actually think Sanders will have a huge game against Dallas.  This backfield is all his right now, and Dallas could be without Vander Esch in the middle of that defense.  You're starting Sanders if you have him regardless, but that's why he's in the obvious start category now isn't it?

Not-So-Obvious Start: Don't look now, but David Johnson has been an RB2 in each of his last two games.  Against a not-so-good Cincy defense this week, he might break into RB1 territory.  He's not an exciting play and I can't imagine he's on a ton of championship squads, but he's a start for me this week.

The Ceiling is the Roof: Latavius Murray saved his Week 15 stat line with a touchdown, but he hasn't been very involved in this offense lately.  I have him ranked outside of my top-40 RBs this week, so I'd much rather take a chance on someone like Malcolm Brown or Gus Edwards who are just more involved in their team's gameplan right now.




WRs
Obvious Start: I doubt many people are benching Allen Robinson against his old team, but you never know after a down Week 15.  Don't bench ARob against the Jags.  He'll get double digit targets and could easily finish as a top-10 fantasy WR in this cake matchup.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I actually think Marquise Brown is quietly back into start territory.  He gets the Giants this week, and their secondary is banged up.  Brown has been a WR2 in 3 of his last 4 games, and he was a WR3 in the 4th game (in which he scored!).  The Ravens should be able to move the ball in this game, and it just takes one big play for Hollywood to finish as a top-20 WR.  I'd plug him into my FLEX this week if I had the space for him.

The Ceiling is the Roof: If you somehow have Tyler Lockett on your squad and made it all the way to the championship, congratulations.  I'm guessing in that scenario, you probably haven't been playing him lately.  He hasn't finished better than WR45 since November 19th.  He finished as the WR32 when the Seahawks played the Rams in Week 10.  I don't have a ton of faith in Russell Wilson this week, and that extends to Lockett.



TEs
Obvious Start: I had Logan Thomas as my not-so-obvious start last week, but he's graduating to obvious start territory.  The only wrinkle here is if Taylor Heinicke is the starting QB on Sunday, but if Logan is still getting 10+ targets, he'll be a TE1.  And as of right now, it looks like Haskins will start.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I mentioned Brady as my QB not-so-obvious start, so I'm going to mention Gronk here.  Like I said, I think the Bucs will put up a ton of points in this game, so why not a Gronk spike?

The Ceiling is the Roof: I think there are much better options out there than Jordan Reed.  He's had a couple of touchdowns in the last month, but he hasn't had more than 32 receiving yards in a game since Week 10.  With George Kittle potentially back this week combined with the fact that C.J. Beathard should be under center, I'd go ahead and look for another TE option for Week 16.



And here are my betting picks for Week 16.  I'm trying to finish strong and get in the top-5 in both the O/U and ATS categories by the end of the regular season, so let's see if I can add onto my numbers with these picks!

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