As this season has progressed, I've tried some different things with my rankings and I've updated the format of this weekly post. This week I considered adding tiers, but ultimately it just felt like more work which I don't need right now. Maybe I'll do them with my weekly rankings next season, but I wanted to explain the concept of tiers because I've been getting more and more start/sit questions on Twitter. I do my best to answer all of them, but to be honest, most can be answered by these rankings. Where it gets really tough is when people ask me a start/sit question about guys who are literally back to back in my rankings. I realize you want an answer (or at least some validation of a ranking), but I tend to think of guys in tiers. If you're asking me whether or not to FLEX a guy I have ranked as my RB15 versus WR30, that's an easy one (go with the RB).
Side note: I do my best to update my FLEX rankings every week too, so check those out.
But if you're debating between a guy I have ranked as my RB14 vs RB15, it's likely those guys are a total coin flip for me too. As of this writing, that's CEH & Wayne Gallman. Sure, I like Clyde slightly more, but I could rationalize Gallman over him given his solid workload.
Anyway, I just wanted to explain that a bit. Unless you're totally out of the playoffs or have a first round bye, you're likely just scrolling down to the rankings anyway. And if it's my betting picks you care about, then scroll to the bottom. I was bad against the spread in Week 12 but really good with my over/under picks. So of course in Week 13 that trend flipped. I lost a small amount with my O/U picks, but I'm still in the top-3 among the BettingPros experts in that category.
Let's get to the Week 14 rankings, shall we?
QBs
Obvious Start: I talked about Ryan Tannehill in this spot last week, and he was a top-10 fantasy QB for the third straight week. That also makes him a top-10 QB for the 6th time in his 12 games this year. Not too shabby. He gets the Jags this week, so plug him into your lineup for the playoffs.
Not-So-Obvious Start: It feels kind of icky, but Philip Rivers has actually been a top-15 fantasy QB in each of the last 4 weeks. He has a nice matchup in Vegas this week, and I could see him ending up with 300 yards and 3 TDs.
The Ceiling is the Roof: He had been pretty money when Julio was in the lineup this year, but last week Matt Ryan put up a dud against the Saints. He has a better matchup against the Chargers this week, but I wouldn't be confident enough to start him and I don't see that he has a big ceiling.
Obvious Start: I'm mentioning David Montgomery here for the third week in a row. He may not have won you any matchups early in the season, but he could be a big part of carrying you into/through the playoffs. He was the #1 fantasy RB last week, and I feel like he's a lock to finish in the top-10 again (maybe top-5).
Not-So-Obvious Start: If D'Andre Swift continues to sit, you have to like Adrian Peterson against a terrible Packer run defense. He's been a top-10 RB each of the last two weeks given the workload, and I don't see why he can't do it again in a great matchup. If Swift suits up, you can disregard this call, so check back later in the week on Swift's status.
The Ceiling is the Roof: You don't want to face the Saints right now, and that especially means their run defense. Unless you have better options, you might not have much choice but to start Miles Sanders this week, but I feel like he has a very low ceiling in a tough matchup. Throw in the unknown of Jalen Hurts now at QB, and this is a situation to try to avoid if you can. Maybe Hurts makes the offense hum, but it's not the best week to roll the dice and find out.
Obvious Start: He can be a frustrating guy to start each week, but I don't see how you could bench Tyler Lockett against the Jets in a bounce back spot for Russell Wilson. Yes, Lockett has four finishes this season outside of the top-50 WRs, but he also has two #1 finishes. This week feels more likely to be the latter, so I highly recommend you keep him in your lineup.
Not-So-Obvious Start: I don't see how you can ignore the volume that Keke Coutee got last week on his way to a top-12 WR finish. While Chicago is expected to be a frigid environment temperature wise, I don't feel like it's the worst matchup from a fantasy perspective. I still expect Watson to throw the ball 35 times and for Coutee to get roughly 10 of those looks. I think he's a WR3 and an obvious FLEX this week.
The Ceiling is the Roof: His best games this year have come with Fitzmagic at QB, so with Tua under center I'm a little worried about the ceiling of DeVante Parker. It's that simple.
Obvious Start: The entire Charger offense stunk against the Patriots last week, so feel free to disregard the output of Hunter Henry in that game. He was a top-12 TE the previous three weeks and now has a great matchup against the Falcons. I wouldn't consider benching him for a streaming option. Keep him locked into your lineups.
Not-So-Obvious Start: Just a reminder to get Gronk back into your lineup after his super late Week 13 bye. It's tough to come up with a not-so-obvious start at the tight end position to be honest. After the top 3 or 4, they are all kind of the same.
The Ceiling is the Roof: Dawson Knox has scored in each of his last two games, but he hasn't done much else than that all season. Maybe he's being utilized more with John Brown on IR, but I can't imagine starting him against Pittsburgh with Minkah Fitzpatrick roaming around in the secondary.
Here are my betting picks for Week 14. Good luck!
