Who is this year's Zac Stacy? (2019 Edition)

It's that time of the year again.  The weather is still hot as hell, but fall is right around the corner.  And we all know what that means.  That's right: PUMPKIN SPICE EVERYTHIIIIIING!

But more important than that, it also means football of course!

You may have noticed, but this year I've actually been breaking my super long preseason article out into multiple pieces.  So I needed to come up with a name for this Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc.  I settled on the original title for this article many years ago, and that's "Who is this year's Zac Stacy"?  You may or may not remember Stacy, but for me, it just feels right for the name of this one.

If this is your first time reading this article, you'll get the idea pretty quickly.  There are several trends I've noticed in recent seasons, and I've hand picked my guy to fit each category below.  We'll see if I can get any of these right in 2019.  Enjoy!

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), or Phillip Lindsay (2018)? [Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.] A: Damien Harris In this year's draft, only 2 RBs went in the first two rounds: Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders.  David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson went in the 3rd round, but both are being drafted way too high to be in the mix for this long shot category.  That leaves plenty of options for guys who could be drafted in the later rounds and ultimately breakout by midseason.  The guy I like the most though is Damien Harris, who the Patriots took in the 3rd round out of Alabama.  It seems that New England got an insurance policy for Sony Michel's knees, and Harris could end up getting a ton of work in his rookie year if he can stay healthier than Michel.  It could be that simple.  There are plenty of other guys who could fit this category from Devin Singletary to Alexander Mattison.  But it's the Patriots who tend to always have a later round fantasy RB who ends up being a top-15 or 20 guy on the season. Honorable Mention: Justice Hill Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), or James White (2018)? [Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.] A: Duke Johnson Duke's ADP is nearly outside of the top-50 RBs, so he's way off the radar as a potential top-20 fantasy RB.  But I think the move to Houston could be exactly what he needs to sneak into that RB2 conversation.  The argument against him is that the Texans have never really thrown to their running backs much, but they also haven't had a guy like Duke.  With Will Fuller coming off an ACL injury and Keke Coutee potentially starting the regular season banged up, Johnson could be the one gobbling up some of the short yard routes.  I could even see a scenario in which he gets a few more rushes and this becomes a committee with him and Lamar Miller.  Duke Johnson is just the better, younger athlete at this point in his career.  He could overtake Miller and become a top-20 RB. Honorable Mention: Dion Lewis Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), or Calvin Ridley (2018)? [Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.] A: D.K. Metcalf  I thought D.J. Moore was going to be the guy last year, but it ended up being Ridley.  This year, Harry and Metcalf seem like the obvious choices as both are currently being drafted in the double digit rounds.  But the thing I like is that both are tied to future hall of fame quarterbacks.  With the assumed return of Josh Gordon, N'Keal could have a harder time finding snaps early on.  But as long as Metcalf can get healthy in a few weeks, he should be able to get right into an offense that will be in need of a big target like him.  Doug Baldwin retired, and Tyler Lockett is now the main threat in the passing game.  Metcalf shouldn't have much issue passing guys like David Moore and Jaron Brown on the depth chart.  Keep in mind OBJ missed four games in the beginning of his rookie season due to a hamstring issue and still finished as a top-5 WR! Honorable Mention: N'Keal Harry Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), or Carson Wentz (2017)? [Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.] A: Lamar Jackson I considered a lot of different quarterbacks in this spot last year, but no one really ended up fitting the category.  Keep in mind I didn't count second year guys Trubisky and Mahomes because both really had no where to go but up.  This year, I had a lot of QBs to consider in this spot (including Trubisky).  I also considered Baker Mayfield, but everyone already expects Baker to jump into the top-10.  And while he also doesn't have anywhere to go but up really, I wanted to talk up Lamar Jackson because I don't think he's getting the love he deserves.  If you look at his rookie numbers, you might be deceived into thinking he wasn't as good as he actually was.  He played in all 16 games because the Ravens liked to give him a handful of designed runs even when Flacco was starting in the first half of the season.  But once Lamar took over in Week 11 as the starter, he was a QB1 for the rest of the season.  Can he produce that way over the course of an entire season?  I think he can, and I don't think enough people are talking about him as a top-12 fantasy QB in 2019. Honorable Mention: Sam Darnold (to jump into the top-20) Q: Who is this year's Cam Newton & Andy Dalton (2013-2014), Ben Roethlisberger (2014-2015), Carson Palmer & Cam Newton (2015-2016), Matt Ryan (2016-2017), or Carson Wentz (2017-2018? [Description: A top-5 fantasy QB who finishes outside of the top-15 the following year, and not due to a serious injury that season.] A: Ben Roethlisberger I warned you in 2017 about Matty Ice, and I warned you last year about Carson Wentz.  This year, I'm not drafting Big Ben.  He finished in the top-5 in 2014, and then he finished outside of the top-15 the following TWO years.  Losing Antonio Brown is obviously huge, but he's also getting up there in age.  Ben played in all 16 games last season, but he's only played in back to back full 16 game seasons once in his 15 years in the NFL.  I expect him to miss a game or two due to a concussion and/or sprained something-or-other.  I think he'll end up back outside the top-15 fantasy QBs this year. Honorable Mention: Andrew Luck if he misses a few games to start the season Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)? [Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2017.] A: Rashaad Penny Hey look - another trend that happens every year!  I nailed this one with Tarik Cohen last year too.  This year, I like Rashaad Penny to get plenty of work in Seattle's run-heavy offense.  Chris Carson is the assumed starter, but he's dealt with some injuries early on in his career.  If he misses some time, Penny could have the backfield mostly to himself.  And even if both guys are healthy all season, Penny should still get plenty of touches.  I can easily see two top-20 RBs for the Seahawks, but an injury to Carson could mean a top-12 finish for Penny. Honorable Mention: Ronald Jones Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), or Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018)? [Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.] A: Jordan Reed  I know it's hard to believe (outside of Barnidge) that all of those tight ends went undrafted in fantasy leagues during their top-5 seasons, but they all did.  This year I'm taking my guy Jordan Reed.  I realize he's never healthy, and he's already being evaluated for a concussion after last night's preseason game.  But that's why his ADP is super low.  In fact, he's never played all 16 games in any of his 5 NFL seasons.  But he was a top-10 fantasy tight end as recently as 2016, a year in which he only played 12 games due to a shoulder injury and a concussion.  He was also the #3 fantasy TE playing 14 games in 2015.  I realize it's unlikely he plays every game this year, but maybe he somehow only misses 2 or 3.  IF that happens, I think it's actually likely he ends up in the top-5 for a Redskins team that lacks a true #1 WR. Honorable Mention: Jack Doyle

I'll post at least one more article and one more rankings update before Week 1 of the regular season.  Until then, enjoy your preseason football and good luck in your drafts! Cheers, Bart