2018 Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings

For most leagues, this is the last week before the fantasy playoffs start.  So if you're reading this, you're probably fighting for a playoff spot or at least positioning near the top of your league standings.  Either way, these rankings feel extra important this week, and they're going to be crucial for the next three weeks after that.  Also don't forget to check out my ROS Rankings, which I continue to update HERE (click the link!).

The bye weeks are over, so these rankings are jam packed.  Let's get right to em!

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week, I was highest on Baker Mayfield (+5) and lowest on Kirk Cousins (-5).  I was right about Baker, who lit up the hapless Bengal defense for 4 TDs and finished as the #1 fantasy QB in Week 12.  But I was wrong about Cousins, who had yet another big game against Green Bay and finished as the #3 fantasy QB.

This week, I'm pretty high on Case Keenum (+7), and I actually like him as a top-15 QB ROS as well.  He has amazing matchups the next four weeks (Bengals, Niners, Browns, and Raiders).  If you've been streaming the QB position, this is a guy worth a look this week and beyond.  If Baker Mayfield could be the #1 fantasy QB last week against Cincy, I don't see why Keenum couldn't easily be in the top-15.  I'm down on Ryan Tannehill this week (-5), who is facing a Buffalo defense that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  I realize he had a couple of TDs against the Colts last week, but have you forgotten about his last couple of games before his injury earlier this year?  He can be downright terrible at times, and I wouldn't trust him in this crucial week of the fantasy season.  I feel like his absolute ceiling is 20 fantasy points, and it's way more likely that he ends up with like 7 or 8 fantasy points against the Bills.

RUNNING BACKS

I was really high on Josh Adams when I released my rankings on Wednesday last week (+10), but that turned into just +4 on Sunday because there were late reports that the Eagles were going to give him more work.  Yeah, like I said on Wednesday.  Anyway, he was clearly the feature back against a porous Giant defense, and he finished as a top-12 fantasy RB.  I was also high on Chris Carson (+7), who I had as a top-20 RB.  He continues to get a ton of work, and he found the endzone against the Panthers.  He finished right about where I ranked him, which was just inside the top-20. I was really low on LeGarrette Blount though (-16), and that didn't work out on Thanksgiving day like I thought it would.  Of course he scored twice against a Bears defense that had only given up 2 rushing touchdowns all year (best in the league).  Whatever.  Sometimes things don't work out the way you think they will.  I was also down on Dalvin Cook (-10), but this dude is BACK.  And wouldn't you know it?  It's just in time because I get to face him in my money league this week.  I also get to face Eric Ebron, who is on a tear and now doesn't have to share targets with Jack Doyle.  I'm already in the playoffs in that league, but I sure would like a bye week.  That's what I'm playing for here in Week 13, and that playoff bye week is going to be tough to get. Speaking of this week, as of right now I'm highest on Jordan Howard (+9) and Chris Thompson (+13).  A lot can change as the week goes on, but as of right now it looks like Thompson could suit up against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.  Adrian Peterson has predictably slowed down in the second half of the season, and I fully expect the Redskins to be playing from behind in this game.  That game script could mean extra work for Chris Thompson (of course assuming he's healthy and plays 15-20ish offensive snaps).  As for Howard, this one takes a leap of faith because he's been pretty bad lately and I have him ranked inside my top-25 this week.  Howard's snap count has actually increased the last couple of weeks, and he faces a Giant defense that has been giving up a TON of fantasy points every week since they traded away Snacks Harrison.  I'm expecting Chase Daniel to play again this week, and I think he'll hand the ball off a lot to Jordan Howard. Since I'm high on Chris Thompson, I'm also down on Adrian Peterson (-10) for the reasons I mentioned above.  I'm also pretty low on Dion Lewis (-8) and James White (-8).  Lewis has less than 7 fantasy points in each of the last 3 weeks.  He has a better matchup this week against the Jets, but I still feel more comfortable ranking him as a FLEX rather than an RB2.  As for White, he has less than 8 fantasy points in each of his last two games.  Those last two games were also Sony Michel's first two games back from a two week absence due to injury.  It's clear the Patriots are going to give Michel the ball plenty, and to make matters worse for White, it looks like Rex Burkhead could also return from the IR this week against the Vikings.  We're likely back to a three-headed monster at RB in New England, witch Michel leading the way by a long shot as long as he's healthy.  James White could certainly have a good game or two down the stretch, but that's going to be tough to predict.  I'll be ranking him more as a FLEX rather than an RB2 because of that.

WIDE RECEIVERS
If you looked at my top-40 WRs last week, I was highest on Dontrelle Inman (+25) and John Ross (+19).  Inman has emerged as the #2 WR in Indy, but Luck mainly focused on TY and his tight ends against Miami.  I thought Inman would finish in the top-40, but he actually ended up with just 40 yards receiving and was outside of the top-50.  He has a nice floor but hasn't shown a ton of upside just yet.  Still, I'm going to continue to rank him fairly highly, especially with Jack Doyle now out for the year.  As for Ross, he found the endzone in his third straight week after getting healthy over his bye week.  I said he would finish in the top-30 against Cleveland, and he did just that.  I wasn't down on a ton of receivers near the top of my rankings last week, so let's get into who I like (and don't like) this week versus the ECR. If you look inside my top-25 I'm high on Denver's WRs: Sanders (+6) & Sutton (+4).  I already mentioned how I like Keenum against the Bengals, so I also like his receiving options.  Sticking in my top-25, I'm slightly high on Larry Fitzgerald (+5) and Josh Reynolds (+5).  The volume hasn't always been there, but Fitzgerald has scored 9 or more fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.  He also faces a Green Bay defense that gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs and just gave up a ton of points to Thielen and Diggs last week.  As for Josh Reynolds, take a look at his last four games: Week 8 GB (no Cooper Kupp) 16 fantasy points 3 catches 42 yards 2 TDs Week 9 @NO (healthy Cooper Kupp) 0 fantasy points - - - Week 10 Sea (healthy Cooper Kupp) 0 fantasy points - - - Week 11 KC (no Cooper Kupp) 14 fantasy points 6 catches 80 yards 1 TD So yeah, he's been producing in that Cooper Kupp role.  I fully expect him to be a top-25 WR this week one way or another.  I'm also super high on Josh Doctson (+19).  He had 10 targets last week in Dallas, and Colt McCoy should throw the ball his way a lot on Monday night against a terrible Eagle secondary.  Right now the ECR has him outside of the top-50, but I think he could be a decent FLEX play this week.  I'm down on T.Y. Hilton (-9) who I have well outside of my top-20 WRs.  He's been mostly great when healthy this year, but he didn't have a great game against the Jags just a couple of weeks ago (3 catches for 77 yards and no touchdown).  I think he'll have a similar stat line this week, and he could even get shut down more than that.  It's possible Jalen Ramsey misses this game, but that just means Bouye will likely shadow T.Y.  I'd consider a different option at WR if I had one. TIGHT ENDS If you looked at my top-15 in Week 12, I was high on Jonnu Smith and Nick Vannett (+5 on each). Jonnu had been a top-10 TE in his last three games and had scored in two of them.  He had a big play on MNF and ended up in the top-5!  As for Vannett, he wasn't even a top-25 TE and now has just 2 targets in each of his last 3 games.  I was down on Kyle Rudolph (-6), and he was a top-25 TE midway through the first HALF!  Well, he did pretty much nothing in the second half and barely ended up in the top-20.  He's been a frustrating tight end this season after such a good year in 2017.  I'll continue to rank him around 15th or so for the rest of the season. This week, I'm still high on Jonnu Smith (+6).  He's been a top-5 TE the last 4 weeks, so why shouldn't I be ranking him in my top-12?!?  I'm down on Austin Hooper (-7), and I really don't trust anyone outside of my top-15 TEs.  Hooper has less than 5 fantasy points in four of his last five games, and I don't see how you can start him against a tough Ravens defense. DEFENSES

In Week 12, I was high on the Saints defense for a second week in a row (+7), and I'm actually high on them again this week (+7)!   Last week's game against Atlanta was expected to be high scoring, but I said it would be that way because of the Saints and not so much the Falcons.  I didn't even have them ranked that highly (16th), but I was still way higher than the experts on them.  They actually finished as the #2 fantasy defense in Week 12, and I don't see why you should rank them outside of the top-12 tomorrow night against the Cowboys.  This defense is on a roll, and I think they're startable every week.

I was also high on the Lions last week (+6), and I had them ranked 12th (right where they finished).  I was wrong about the Broncos though (-5), as they surprised me against the Steelers and finished as a top-5 unit.  So while I continue to be high on the Saints, I also continue to be down on the Jags versus the ECR (-8).  They just played the Colts in Week 10, and the defense was one of the worst options in that week.  Why would this week be any different?  If anything, I think it could be worse with Fournette out and Cody Kessler starting at quarterback.  I don't see this offense doing much in Week 13, and I think that'll cause the defense to be on the field more against a good offense led by Andrew Luck (who now has 3+ passing TDs in 8 straight games!).

Good luck to everyone in Week 13!  

(Except you, Terry...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

I messed up with my rankings last week.  As usual, I published them on Wednesday, and then I updated them on Sunday morning (or at least I thought I did).  The problem was, I forgot to hit the "PUBLISH" button.

*FACE PALM EMOJI*

So I still had guys like Joe Flacco and Marvin Jones in my rankings.  My bad.  I thought I'd updated them, but I didn't.  I'll try my best to recap my picks versus the ECR last week, but so many of them will be off because of this screw up of mine.  I guess I'm still navigating this FantasyPros Expert Platform, but maybe I'll have it mastered by the end of the season.

Anyway, how about that Rams/Chiefs game, eh?!  What. A. Game.  I enjoyed watching that game SO much, but I was getting nervous toward the end because while I had Kareem Hunt in my money league, my opponent was chasing me down with Jared Goff in his lineup.  I obviously want to win my fantasy matchups every week, but I really didn't care that much at 11:30pm on Monday night.  That game was so fun to watch.  If I lost Week 11 because Goff threw another touchdown, so be it.  In the end, I squeaked out a win and got to enjoy one of the best NFL games I can ever remember watching.

Well, the Rams and Chiefs are finally on their bye this week (the last of the byes!).  So that means everyone else is playing this week, and all teams will be in action from Weeks 13 til the end of the season.  Just a couple more weeks until the fantasy playoffs...

To the rankings!

BYE: Chiefs & Rams

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
In Week 11, I continued to rank Andrew Luck as a top-5 QB, but the ECR nearly had him outside of the top-10.  I'm not sure why the experts were afraid of the Titans, but Luck continued to roll.  He's my #1 fantasy QB in my ROS Rankings, which I've updated HERE (click the link!).  I even added tiers.  I know.  So fun.  :)

I was also high on Mitchell Trubisky (+4 vs ECR), and I had him inside my top-10.  While I was wrong with this pick, he continued to get points with his legs and showed his high floor (which is about 15 fantasy points).  He kind of feels like this year's Deshaun Watson.  I sure wish Deshaun Watson would be this year's Deshaun Watson, but for now I'm stuck debating him versus Tom Brady in my money league on a weekly basis.  I have a feeling this will be a tough decision for the rest of the fantasy season, and I have both guys barely ranked in my top-12 this week.  Ugh.

Anyway, I was slightly down on Aaron Rodgers last week (-4 vs ECR), but he had a good game on Thursday night (albeit in a loss).  I thought he'd have less than 20 fantasy points in this game, but I was wrong here too.  Of course everyone expected that random tight end to catch like a 60 yard TD from him though, right?  Rodgers will likely be a top-10 fantasy QB the rest of the season, but I'll likely continue to often rank him outside of my top-5.

This week, I'm high on Russell Wilson (+6) and down on Kirk Cousins (-5).  Wilson always seems to be a slow starter, but he's been a top-5 fantasy QB in his last 6 games.  He also hasn't scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in any of those games, so he's been consistent too.  The ECR doesn't even have him as a top-12 play as of right now, and that seems crazy to me.  The guy just keeps putting up fantasy points, and I don't see why you'd sit him against the Panthers.  As for Cousins, if you look at his last 6 games, he's only scored more than 20 fantasy points once in that span.  He did have a big game in Green Bay in Week 2, but I'm not counting on that again with Dalvin Cook being more involved in the offense now.  Cousins might have a hard time being a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 12.

RUNNING BACKS

I was actually kind of high on T.J. Yeldon last week (+10), but that didn't pan out.  I thought the Jags would be playing from behind in this game, but that was not the case.  Their defense dominated for 3 quarters before falling apart and allowing the Steelers to get the win in Jacksonville. Yeldon didn't finish anywhere near a top-30 RB where I ranked him, and Carlos Hyde actually had more fantasy points than he did.  I was down on Ito Smith (-9) because I was starting to see him as more of a lower volume/TD-dependent guy.  He looked like that against the Cowboys, and he's now had less than 3 fantasy points in back to back weeks.  He finished outside of the top-40 RBs and can't really be trusted right now. As of right now, I'm really high on Josh Adams this week (+10).  Since trading Snacks Harrison to Detroit at the end of October, the Giants have given up big numbers to Adrian Peterson, Matt Breida, and Peyton Barber.  I think that continues this week with the Eagles seeing what the rookie can do for them.  I want to rank Adams even higher, but I'm just not that confident he gets the majority of the touches in that backfield.  I don't think he'll need it though.  If he gets 12-15 touches, I think he'll be a top-20 RB this week.  I'm really low on LeGarrette Blount (-16), as I don't even see him as a top-40 play tomorrow.  I expect Zach Zenner to be active against the Bears, and I only see Blount as having value if he somehow falls into the endzone.  The Bears have only given up 2 rushing touchdowns all year (best in the league), so I'm down on Blount.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I stayed high on Adam Humphries last week (+17), and he found the endzone yet again.  The experts continue to rank DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin well ahead of Humphries, but all of these guys should be in consideration with Jameis or Fitzmagic throwing the ball 40+ times a game.  I was also high on a pair of Joshes: Reynolds (+9) and Doctson (+14).  I said you'd want to start someone in this Rams/Chiefs game, and Reynolds contributed a touchdown (and a top-20 WR finish) to the 105 total points scored.  With Cooper Kupp out for the year, I expect Reynolds to have a ton of value in Weeks 13-16.  As for Doctson, he had found the endzone in back to back games, but that mini-streak ended in Week 11.  Alex Smith had a terrible leg injury in this game and is lost for the season, but Doctson has shown some chemistry with Colt McCoy.  I'm not dropping him down my rankings too much just yet. I was down on quite a few WRs versus the experts, but focusing on the top of my rankings, I was low on Alshon Jeffery (-8) and Emmanuel Sanders (-7) due to their cornerback matchups: Marshon Lattimore and Desmond King.  That turned out to be right because both receivers were held in check and finished outside of the top-30 WRs in Week 11, even though the ECR had both guys as top-20 plays.  I've moved both back up my rankings this week, as both have much better matchups. If you look beyond my top-50 WRs this week, I'm high on a lot of guys versus the ECR.  But if you focus on my top-40, I'm highest on Dontrelle Inman (+25) and John Ross (+29).  Inman has emerged as the #2 WR in Indy, and Luck has been on fire this season.  I expect him to have a solid day and finish in the top-40.  As for Ross, he's found the endzone in back to back weeks after getting healthy over his bye week.  A.J. Green might return this week, but even if he does, I think that might only help John Ross.  I expect him to get loose for a big play in this game and finish in the top-30.  I'm not down on a ton of receivers near the top of my rankings aside from Chicago WRs and some of the usual suspects (i.e. DeSean Jackson), so let's move on to the tight ends... TIGHT ENDS Last week I was high on Michael Roberts on Wednesday because I thought it was very possible Marvin Jones didn't play.  It turned out both Roberts and Jones were inactive...and I forgot to update my rankings to remove either of them.  Ugh.  Still kind of mad about that because it's going to impact my accuracy rankings.  Oh well.  Time to tighten up, Wheeler!  In the end, I wasn't really high/low on any tight ends versus the ECR, so let's talk about this week. In my top-15, I'm high on Cameron Brate (+4) and Jonnu Smith (+6).  I think the ECR will catch up on my ranking of Brate with the O.J. Howard news breaking late on Tuesday, but we'll see.  As for Jonnu, he's been a top-10 TE in his last three games and has scored in two of them.  Regardless of the Titan quarterback, I like for him to be a top-15 play on Monday night.  I'm down on Austin Hooper (-4) who I don't see as a top-10 TE against the Saints tomorrow night.  Hooper has scored more than 5 fantasy points just once in the last 5 weeks, and he didn't hit the 5 point mark against New Orleans in Week 3.  I don't trust him against a defense giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the tight end position this year. DEFENSES

With 6 teams on a bye last week (and 5 of those teams being pretty crappy), it really impacted my D/ST rankings.  But I was high on the Saints (+9 on Wednesday, only +5 on Sunday) and down on the Jags (-9).  Basically I saw the Saints as a top-12 fantasy defense, and the Jags no where near that (and the ECR was the opposite).  I pointed out that New Orleans had held every opponent except the Rams to under 24 points in their previous 6 games, and the Eagles had only scored more than 24 points once this entire season.  That held up in Week 11, and the Saints were a top-5 fantasy defense.  As for the Jags, they actually had a good game against the Steelers and were a top-10 play themselves.  They're one of my top plays this week as they travel to Buffalo to face one of the most turnover-prone offenses in the entire league.

Back to the Saints defense for a minute though because I like them again versus the ECR this week (+8).  I realize this game is expected to be high scoring, but I think it could end up looking a lot like the game last week when they blew out Philadelphia.  I don't even have them ranked that highly (15th), but I think they could be a decent play tomorrow night if you want to have someone playing in this game.  I'm down on the Panthers (-4), but I don't have much to say about that.

I'm done.  Time to get ready for Thanksgiving!

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!  

(Except you, Carl...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

It's crunch time, folks.  Most fantasy leagues start their playoffs in Week 14, so that means just three more regular season matchups to get into those playoffs.  There are 6 teams on a bye again this week, but there are some pretty crappy teams in there, so this week's bye is likely not hitting any one fantasy team too hard.  Next week is the last bye and just the Rams and Chiefs are off, but that's a lot of significant fantasy players sitting out during a potentially crucial week for a lot of fantasy teams.  Hey, everyone has to take a bye week!

I'm keeping the intro short and sweet this week.  Let's get to the rankings!

BYE: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I was high on Andrew Luck (+5) because he always seems to end up in the top-10 no matter what defense he faces this year.  In fact, I knew the Jags were going to be without A.J. Bouye, so I liked him even more.  I also said Luck would find a way to find like 3 of his tight ends in the endzone, and that's basically what happened.  It doesn't matter who the Colts are playing.  Luck will get his tight ends some touchdowns.  I ranked him as the #8 QB in Week 10, and he finished 6th.

I stayed down on Jared Goff (-5) even though he'd been on fire the last couple of weeks.  He didn't have a great game in Seattle in Week 5, and I thought he'd finish well outside of the top-5.  I ranked him as my #9 QB, and he finished 10th.  This week, I'm facing him in my money league and the total points for MNF is like 64 (the highest NFL Vegas total since the 1980s or something).  I'm hoping for a huge Todd Gurley game, but I know Goff will get his.  I have him and Mahomes both as top-3 plays in that game.  Back to last week, I was also down on Ryan Fitzpatrick (-5) against my Redskins.  The ECR had him as a top-10 play, but I didn't.  He put up a lot of yards but failed to find the endzone.  Oh, and he was a turnover machine.  He finished outside of the top-20 fantasy QBs in Week 10, but he's still a startable fantasy QB while he has the job in Tampa.  You know the guy is going to sling it, and he has plenty of weapons in that offense. 

This week, I like Matt Ryan vs the ECR (+4) the same way I liked Luck last week.  If it weren't for Mahomes, we'd be talking about Matty Ice as having a great season (because he is).  He's the #2 fantasy QB and tends to put up better numbers at home.  Don't overthink this one.  Ryan should be a top-5 QB against the Cowboys.  I'm slightly down on Aaron Rodgers tomorrow night (-5), and I think it's very possible he doesn't finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in Seattle.  He's the #10 fantasy QB this season, and a lot of that is due to his big games in Weeks 5 & 6 against the Lions and 49ers.  Since his Week 7 bye, he's averaging less than 20 fantasy points per game.  I know it's Rodgers we're talking about here, but I fully expect less than 20 fantasy points again tomorrow night.

RUNNING BACKS

I was high on Alfred Morris last week (+7) because I thought he might vulture a touchdown from my guy Matt Breida.  Well, this was Breida's coming out party, and he actually stayed healthy for the entire game!  Morris wasn't even a top-50 RB against the Giants.  I was way down on Corey Clement in Week 10.  I was actually -14 versus the ECR on Wednesday because Darren Sproles was expected back, but then Sproles had a setback during practice so I moved Clement back up slightly.  Still, I was -9 vs the ECR on Clement because I still thought Smallwood and Adams would continue to get the most work, and I was right.  Clement appears to be the odd man out in this RB rotation, and he also finished well outside of the top-50 running backs last week.  I expect Josh Adams to get more touches starting this week in New Orleans. As for Week 11, I'm actually kind of high on T.J. Yeldon (+8).  I realize Fournette is back, but Yeldon is still in the mix and I think could be more involved this week if the Jags find themselves playing from behind against the Steelers.  I have him nearly as a top-30 RB, which would mean he's in FLEX consideration.  Two guys who I'm not considering as much as a FLEX are Ito Smith (-9) and Austin Ekeler (-8).  The ECR has them more in the range where I've ranked Yeldon, but I see them as lower volume/TD-dependent guys.  I think someone like Yeldon will get more touches than both of those guys and has a better chance to put up top-30 numbers in Week 11.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I stayed high on Adam Humphries in Week 10 (+13) because you have to ride a hot streak.  He didn't have a great game, but he did finish ahead of even where I ranked him (which was 40th).  I was also really high on Allen Robinson (+14).  The ECR had him at 40th, but I saw him as close to a WR2 against Detroit's banged up secondary.  Well, I didn't have him high enough because he went over 100 yards and had a pair of scores.  He was nearly the #1 fantasy WR in Week 10.  I was down on a lot of WRs versus the ECR because that's just kind of how it works out once you get past the top-30 or so guys.  I'm not going to take the time to mention each one of them here because it's kind of a mixed bag down there. This week, I'm still high on Humphries (+17).  I don't mind continuing to be right because Fitz is throwing the ball his way.  He will get points.  If you look a littler higher in my rankings, I'm also high on a pair of Joshes: Reynolds (+12) and Doctson (+15).  Cooper Kupp is out for the year, and Josh Reynolds will get plugged into the slot for him.  When Kupp was out Week 8, Reynolds had 2 TDs against the Packers.  I'm not saying that'll happen again, but I don't see why it couldn't.  You're going to want to start someone in this Rams/Chiefs game, and Reynolds could still be out there on your waiver wire right now.  Pick him up!  As for Doctson, he's found the endzone in back to back games and continues to get those red zone looks with Richardson and Crowder sidelined.  The Redskins haven't been scoring a lot of points, so this feels like more of a dice roll, but he could make it three straight. I'm down on quite a few WRs versus the experts, but I'll focus on the top of my rankings.  I'm low on Alshon (-8) and Emmanuel Sanders (-8).  The ECR has both guys as top-20 plays, but I think both could struggle with their matchups.  Jeffery could face a lot of Marshon Lattimore (who most people know), and Sanders will see plenty of Desmond King (who many people may not know but has played really well this year).  It's that simple.  I'm just downgrading both slightly based on their likely cornerback matchups. TIGHT ENDS I ranked Jordan Reed as my #2 TE in Week 9 (+7 vs ECR), but he finished outside of the top-20 and actually had fewer fantasy points than Vernon Davis.  I was playing against Reed in Week 10 in my money league though, so I doubled down and left him in my top-5.  I just felt like he was guaranteed to find the endzone (especially against Tampa Bay), but he did not.  I don't own him in any leagues, but I'd be frustrated if I did.  He continues to get a lot of targets, but he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1!  I was highest on James O'Shaughnessy though (+11), while the ECR had him way down at #37.  You probably weren't starting him in any leagues, but he did finish as a top-20 TE in Week 10. I'm really high on Michael Roberts this week (+12) because I think it's very possible Marvin Jones doesn't play and Golladay can't get all of the red zone looks, can he?  I think Roberts will get 3 or 4 targets and could fall into the end zone against the Panthers.  I know it's tough to trust a guy with only 84 receiving yards on the year, but I still think he should be ranked way higher than his ECR (which is currently 32nd).  I'm down on a couple of guys this week, but they're only around #20 for the experts anyway, so I won't waste my time talking about them.  I know there are 6 teams on a bye this week, but you should still be able to start someone ranked in my top-15 or so.  But if not, give Roberts a shot if Marvin Jones is out! DEFENSES

I had the Chargers in my top-5 last week (+4 vs ECR on Wednesday, but only +1 on Sunday).  They held the Raiders to just 10 points in Week 5, and that was with Amari Cooper and a healthy Marshawn Lynch (neither of which are still a thing in Oakland).  They held Oakland to just 6 points last week, and they finished as the 2nd-best fantasy defense in my money league.  I wasn't super high on any other defenses, so I'll just say I nailed that pick (even though the ECR ended up nailing it too).  I was down on the Packers (-4) because they have been dealing with a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  I did say I could very well be wrong about this one because Brocktober is now continuing into November, and I was very wrong about this one.  Green Bay showed up and finished as a top-5 fantasy defense.

I've mentioned a couple of times how there are 6 teams on a bye this week, and 5 of those teams are pretty bad.  That really impacts my D/ST rankings this week because I tend to rank teams facing those bad teams very highly.  But this week you don't get to just start whoever is facing the Bills (that didn't work out so great last week anyway, did it?).  I'm actually high on the Saints this week (+9) and down on the Jags (-9).  After finishing as the top fantasy defense last season, Sacksonville has been pretty disappointing this year.  They're currently not even a top-20 fantasy defense, and they've been among the worst units in the league the last 5 weeks.  This week, they face a good Steeler offense that gives up the 4th fewest fantasy points to fantasy defenses this year.  I just can't see the Jags anywhere near a top-12 play this week. 

As for the Saints, they've held every opponent except the Rams to under 24 points in their last 6 games.  Drew Brees and the offense is clicking, and that only helps the guys on the defensive side of the ball.  The Eagles have only scored more than 24 points once this entire season, and that was Week 6 against the Giants.  I think this game will end up something like 31-20 (Saints), and I like for New Orleans to play well on defense and put up some decent fantasy points.

Good luck to everyone in Week 11!  

(Except you, Bird...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

I squeaked out a 148-143 victory in my money league last week, and I was sweating it out on Sunday night.  I needed just a handful of points from Tom Freaking Brady (his legal name), who apparently didn't want to score a touchdown.  Finally he hit Josh Gordon for a big play in the 4th quarter, and that solidified my win.  The next closest point total in my league was 117, so it was just one of those weeks where the top two teams faced each other.  I'm sure glad I ended up on the right end of the matchup, but that's how it goes in fantasy football some weeks.  You just have to make the most informed decision you can, and of course sometimes go with your gut.  This week, my gut is having a hard time with Tarik Cohen versus Matt Breida in my FLEX spot, and it'll likely come down to1:00pm on Sunday when I make the call.

Speaking of deadlines, the trade deadline is just a couple of days away in many leagues, so pay attention to that in case you're looking to make a last-minute move for a playoff push.  There are still three bye weeks (including this week), and that includes the Rams and Chiefs off in Week 12.  That's going to be a lot of fantasy production on the sidelines that week.

But back to this week.  Let's do the rankings!

BYE: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Vikings

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I totally whiffed on my QB picks versus the experts.  I actually liked Flacco at home against the Steelers (+8), but he didn't finish anywhere near the top-12 where I had him.  A guy who actually did finish near the top-12 was Baker Mayfield, who I had 5 spots lower vs the ECR.  I didn't see him as a great play against an improved Kansas City defense, but he ended up with nearly 300 yards and a pair of scores on his way to a 13th place finish in Week 9.

As for this week, I'm currently 6 spots higher on Andrew Luck vs the ECR, though that might change come Sunday.  I just see him as a top-10 play no matter what defense he's facing, and the Jags will actually be without one of their star cornerbacks.  Luck will find a way to find like 3 of his tight ends in the endzone.  I continue to be down on Jared Goff (-4) even though he's been on fire the last couple of weeks.  He didn't have a great game in Seattle in Week 5 though, and I'm not sure he'll even throw for multiple touchdowns in this contest.  This feels more like a Gurley week where he has like 3 rushing touchdowns.  I'm also down on my guy Tom Brady, who hasn't been very Brady-like lately.  I'm starting him this week because I have Deshaun Watson on a bye, but I'll be plugging Deshaun back in there in Week 11 (when Brady is on his bye).  This might be a difficult start/sit dilemma for me in Weeks 12-16, but hopefully it'll be a good problem to have.

RUNNING BACKS

Also in that Browns/Chiefs game, I was down on Nick Chubb (-9).  I said I expected Duke Johnson to be more involved in this game, and he actually had more fantasy points than Chubb.  But surprisingly (at least to me), both RBs were in the top-12!  I was also down on Mark Ingram and Kerryon Johnson (-6 on each), and neither was even a top-30 fantasy RB in a week with 6 teams on a bye.  I was pretty high on Jamaal Williams (+8) and Kapri Bibbs (+9).  Jamaal finished right around where I ranked him, and Bibbs actually found the endzone and finished inside the top-20. As of right now, I'm high on Mike Davis (+7), but I'm also assuming Chris Carson misses this game due to injury.  I expect if that happens, the ECR might even surpass my ranking of Davis.  I'm also a little high on Giovani Bernard (+6), as I expect him to have gotten healthy over the bye week.  I think this game could get out of hand, and if the Bengals find themselves down a couple of touchdowns in the second half, we could see a lot of Bernard in the passing game/garbage time.  I'm down on Corey Clement (-14) because Josh Adams got involved in Week 8, and Sproles is expected back this week.  I think Smallwood will continue to get early down work and Clement could be the odd man out in this potential 4 man rotation.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I was ten spots higher than the experts on Marquez Valdes-Scantling when I put out my rankings on Wednesday, but the ECR caught up on Sunday with Geronimo Allison ruled out (ultimately I was just +3 vs ECR on MVS).  Still, I wanted to point out that he was in the top-20 again and actually had more fantasy points than Davante Adams against the Patriots.  With Allison now on the IR, I think MVS is a top-30 WR the rest of the season.  I was super high on Adam Humphries against the Panthers (+23).  He'd been getting a lot of targets, and I said he belonged in the top-50.  Well, he finished as the #2 fantasy WR in Week 9, so you could say I nailed that one! This week, I'm still high on Humphries (+12) because, well, ride the hot streak.  I'm also high on Dede Westbrook (+11), though it's hard to feel great about any Jag receivers.  I like Quincy Enunwa to easily finish in the top-40, and I'm currently 13 spots higher than the ECR on him too.  I have a feeling Josh McCown is going to pepper him with targets against the Bills this week.  I'm pretty much always down on DeSean Jackson versus the ECR (-6), and I'm actually down on Mohamed Sanu this week (-10).  This is a guy I was higher on earlier in the year, but lately it's been a ton of Julio with a little Calvin Ridley sprinkled in.  Matt Ryan is having a great year though, so I get ranking all three of those guys in the top-40.  I'm just not ranking Sanu that highly this week in Cleveland. TIGHT ENDS I ranked Jordan Reed as my #2 TE last week (+7 vs ECR), but he finished outside of the top-20 and actually had fewer fantasy points than Vernon Davis.  I'm playing against Reed this week in my money league though, so I'm doubling down and leaving him in my top-5 because now I feel like he's guaranteed to find the endzone (especially against Tampa Bay).  I was also high on Jordan Thomas last week (+10), and he scored for the second week in a row (and for the third time in two games).  I was down on Greg Olsen though (-7), and he's back into top-5 form. I was wrong there, but I've moved Olsen way up in my ROS Rankings, which I continue to update regularly!!!  If there's someone I'm down on this week, I'd say it's Jared Cook.  That guy is tough to trust, and I just wouldn't trust him as a top-10 option this week (or really any week right now). DEFENSES

Can we skip over my defense picks versus the ECR last week?  No?  OK...

I talked up Oakland's defense (+5), even though I was fully aware of how bad they were.  Well, maybe I wasn't completely aware because they were even worse than I could have imagined.  They gave up 34 points and had nothing on the defensive side of the stat sheet.  I was down on the Dolphins (-9) who looked absolutely terrible against the Texans in Week 8.  Well, they bounced back against the Jets and were one of the top fantasy defenses in Week 9.

This week, I have the Chargers in my top-5 (+3 vs ECR).  They held the Raiders to just 10 points in Week 5, and that was with Amari Cooper and a healthy Marshawn Lynch (neither of which are still a thing in Oakland).  I think this game is a blowout, and I like for the Charger defense to play well.  I'm down on the Packers (-4) because they're dealing with a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  I could very well be wrong about this one because Brocktober is continuing into November, but I'd have a hard time trusting Green Bay as a top-5 unit until they get healthier.

Good luck to everyone in Week 10!  

(Except you, Ruffo...)

Cheers,

Bart