Wednesday, September 21, 2016

2016 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

If you came out of Week 2 without a running back injured, then congratulations.  I was not so lucky, as Jonathan Stewart left the game early with a hamstring injury and will probably miss at least a couple of weeks.  Other notable RB injuries (in order of severity): Danny Woodhead, Adrian Peterson, Ameer Abdullah, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Thomas Rawls, and probably someone else I'm forgetting.  Yikes!

Image result for adrian peterson injuryThis week, I've expanded t a few of my positions (i.e. my top-12 TEs has become a top-20).  I'm doing this for a few reasons.  For some positions (like TE), after the top 3 or 4, it gets messy...and fast!  Expanding to a top-20 should also allow me to give you a guy I'm high and down on versus the ESPN guys too.  It also provides a bigger list to choose from if you're considering playing one of these guys at the FLEX position.  And for other positions (like RB or WR), I'm just expanding from 45 to 50 because there are guys I want to rank.  I mean, I don't want to leave off Kenyan Drake, do I?!?

Anyway, let's see how the Week 3 rankings are shaping up!

QBs
1.Drew Brees
2.Cam Newton
3.Aaron Rodgers
4.Andrew Luck 
5.Ben Roethlisberger
6.Carson Palmer
7.Matt Ryan
8.Philip Rivers  
9.Blake Bortles 
10.Eli Manning   
11.Russell Wilson 
12.Derek Carr
13.Jameis Winston 
14.Ryan Tannehill
15.Matthew Stafford  
16.Marcus Mariota 
17.Joe Flacco
18.Tyrod Taylor
19.Ryan Fitzpatrick 
20.Dak Prescott

I was high on two QBs in Week 2, and they were Derek Carr (ESPN #10, ME #4) and Jay Cutler (ESPN #27, ME #18).  I said Carr would throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs and easily be a top-5 fantasy QB versus Atlanta.  He threw for 299 yards and had 3 TDs on his way finishing as the #4 QB...right where I ranked him!  What more do you want from me?!?  Well you probably want me to be right about my other pick in Cutler, but that didn't happen.  Hopefully you weren't so desperate in Week 2 that you were playing him, but I guess you never know.  I didn't believe in Philly's secondary after one game against the Browns, and honestly, I still don't.  Cutler was apparently playing with an injured thumb on his throwing hand, but he was lighting up Philly's D in the first half.  I expect the Eagles to get torched this week by Big Ben, and I have him as a top-5 play. 

Speaking of the Steelers, I was down on Andy Dalton (ESPN #15, ME NOT RANKED), citing his struggles when he traveled to Pittsburgh.  This one was looking good for me until Andy racked up some yardage at the end and finally got a passing TD (to a running back) with less than 4 minutes to go in the game.  But garbage time points count, and Dalton finished with 366 yards and that TD on his way to a #15 finish, right where ESPN ranked him.  Hopefully I'll do better with my QBs this week.  And don't worry, I won't rank Cutler ever again.  Seriously.  Like, ever.


I'm high on: Blake Bortles (ESPN #13, ME #9) 
Baltimore has been pretty stingy against the pass through two games, but those games were also against the Browns and Bills.  It's not like they held Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in check.  I think Bortles will get it going this week and be a top-10 fantasy QB against the Ravens at home.

Image result for kirk cousins giantsI'm down on: Kirk Cousins (ESPN #16, ME NOT RANKED) 
It's Week 3.  If you're starting Cousins on your fantasy team, you have problems.  Kirk has struggled to start this season, throwing 3 INTs and just 1 TD.  He has thrown for nearly 700 yards through 2 games, but I'm not sure he gets over the 300 yard mark this week in New York.  This Giants defense  is looking much better in 2016, and I wouldn't trust Cousins in my starting lineup until he looks a little more consistent.  Keep in mind that in 4 career starts against the G-Men, Kirk has just 3 TDs and 8 INTs.  I'd stay away...for now.

RBs
1.David Johnson
2.DeAngelo Williams
3.C.J. Anderson 
4.Lamar Miller
5.Matt Forte  
6.Ezekiel Elliott
7.Melvin Gordon  
8.Todd Gurley  
9.Mark Ingram 
10.LeSean McCoy 
11.DeMarco Murray  
12.LeGarrette Blount
13.Eddie Lacy 
14.Latavius Murray
15.Devonta Freeman
16.Isaiah Crowell 
17.Spencer Ware 
18.Frank Gore  
19.Rashad Jennings  
20.Jerick McKinnon
21.Jeremy Langford
22.Charles Sims 
23.Theo Riddick 
24.Tevin Coleman
25.Ryan Mathews 
26.Carlos Hyde 
27.Jeremy Hill 
28.Christine Michael 
29.Giovani Bernard 
30.Matt Jones 
31.TJ Yeldon 
32.Cameron Artis-Payne  
33.Justin Forsett 
34.Fozzy Whittaker   
35.Jay Ajayi 
36.Matt Asiata  
37.Terrance West
38.Dwayne Washington 
39.Chris Ivory  
40.Shane Vereen
41.Thomas Rawls
42.Derrick Henry 
43.Duke Johnson     
44.Kenyan Drake 
45.James White  
46.Chris Thompson
47.Alfred Morris 
48.Jordan Howard 
49.Darren Sproles
50.Jacquizz Rodgers

I definitely whiffed on my RB picks in Week 2.  I was high on Rashad Jennings (ESPN #18, ME #12) against the Saints.  I mean, why wouldn't I be?  But he didn't make the most of an amazing matchup and actually finished outside of the top-40 RBs.  And
I was down on Devonta Freeman (ESPN #17, ME #24), as I was assuming the even time share with Tevin Coleman would continue (and it pretty much did).  Although Freeman continues to get more touches than Coleman, it's the latter who has more fantasy points.  Devonta still had a decent game though, and he finished as a top-20 fantasy RB. 

I'm high on: Jerick McKinnon (ESPN #22, ME #31)  
With Adrian Peterson likely out the rest of the season, the Vikings will use a committee of McKinnon and Asiata (and maybe mix in newly signed Ronnie Hillman in the coming weeks, if not right away).  But I think the majority of the touches will go to Jerick McKinnon, who is the superior talent among that group of RBs.  Asiata may vulture a TD (which is why I picked him up off the waiver wire), but McKinnon should get the bulk of the work.

I'm down on: Jay Ajayi (ESPN #27, ME #34) 
Image result for dolphins running backsWhile I'm confident McKinnon will get 70% of the snaps against Carolina, I'm not that confident in Ajayi against the Browns.  It's a nice matchup, sure.  But I think Miami will rotate Ajayi with Kenyan Drake and even Isaiah Pead, and I bet they'll go with the hot hand (whoever that will be).  I say Ajayi only gets about 10 touches, and I don't see him anywhere close to an RB2.

WRs
1.Antonio Brown 
2.Julio Jones 
3.DeAndre Hopkins  
4.Kelvin Benjamin 
5.Jordy Nelson
6.Odell Beckham, Jr.  
7.Allen Robinson  
8.Brandin Cooks
9.Mike Evans 
10.Alshon Jeffery
11.AJ Green
12.Larry Fitzgerald 
13.Amari Cooper
14.Jarvis Landry 
15.Dez Bryant 
16.Brandon Marshall  
17.Jordan Matthews
18.Eric Decker
19.Travis Benjamin 
20.TY Hilton 
21.Jeremy Maclin 
22.Willie Snead 
23.Marvin Jones Jr.   
24.DeMaryius Thomas  
25.Stefon Diggs
26.Sterling Shepard  
27.Doug Baldwin 
28.Randall Cobb 
29.Michael Crabtree  
30.DeVante Parker 
31.Mike Wallace
32.Will Fuller 
33.Julian Edelman 
34.Michael Floyd 
35.Phillip Dorsett
36.Tyrell Williams
37.Sammy Watkins
38.Golden Tate   
39.Allen Hurns
40.Emmanuel Sanders 
41.Victor Cruz 
42.DeSean Jackson 
43.Tajae Sharpe
44.Mohamed Sanu
45.Tyler Lockett 
46.Kevin White
47.Cole Beasley
48.Tavon Austin
49.Quincy Enunwa
50.Steve Smith, Sr. 

I was high on Allen Hurns (ESPN #38, ME #27) and down on Sammy Watkins (ESPN #17, ME #31), but neither produced so I was only 1 for 2 here as well.  I said Hurns would only catch 4 or 5 balls against San Diego (he caught 5), but I was counting on one of them being a TD.  So far, Allen isn't being as efficient with his catches this season as last year.  As for Watkins, he didn't look anywhere near 100% healthy on Thursday night.  Tyrod threw his way just 5 times, and one of those got intercepted.  That ball was certainly underthrown, but Watkins barely made a play on it and seemed to grimace/limp afterwards.  He ended up with just 2 catches for 20 yards, and I have some serious concerns about him moving forward.

Image result for sterling shepard giantsI'm high on: Sterling Shepherd (ESPN #39, ME #26)
This rookie has double digit fantasy points in each of his first two games, and I think he'll do it for a third week in a row.  Josh Norman will likely be shadowing OBJ, so Shepherd should be open against guys like Bashaud Breeland.  I think he's a borderline WR2 with WR1 upside in this matchup.


I'm down on: Sammy Watkins (ESPN #27, ME #37) 
I'm still down on Sammy Watkins, and I'll continue to feature him here because, well, it's easy.  I'm not getting paid by the word count here, people.  In fact, I'm not getting paid for this at all, so deal with it.

TEs
1.Greg Olsen
2.Jordan Reed 
3.Delanie Walker
4.Julius Thomas
5.Antonio Gates
6.Dwayne Allen
7.Eric Ebron
8.Dennis Pitta
9.Travis Kelce 
10.Jason Witten 
11.Jesse James 
12.Martellus Bennett 
13.Clive Walford 
14.Jacob Tamme 
15.Coby Fleener  
16.Jimmy Graham
17.Kyle Rudolph
18.Jordan Cameron 
19.Gary Barnidge
20.Vance McDonald 

Last week I didn't have a tight end I was down on versus the ESPN experts, but I did talk up Antonio Gates (ESPN #8, ME #5).  With Keenan Allen going down in Week 1, the Chargers had to game plan with their go-to tight end in mind, right?  Well, he caught only 3 balls for the second week in a row, but at least one of them was in the end zone I guess.  He finished with 7.5 fantasy points in standard leagues, which was better than the likes of Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas, Gary Barnidge and Travis Kelce (among others, obviously).  So while he wasn't a top-5 TE, he should still prove to be a touchdown threat each and every week.  He'll remain in my top-10 until proven otherwise.  Gronk is still missing from my rankings, but if he plays tomorrow night (even with a 3rd string QB), he has to be a top-5 play and you're starting him.  Just wanted to make that clear...


I'm high on: Jordan Cameron (ESPN #25, ME #18) 
I'm still much higher on Dwayne Allen versus the ESPN experts, but I've already talked him up a bunch this season, so let me give you someone else I'm high on.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm actually high on Jordan Cameron this week.  He had a stinker of a game in Seattle, but then again, so did the entire Dolphin offense.  In Week 2 though, he had 5 catches for 49 yards and a TD.  Cleveland has given up top-10 fantasy points to the TE position through the first two games, and I think Cameron could have another decent game.

I'm down on: Gary Barnidge  (ESPN #8, ME #19) 
Image result for gary barnidgeWeek 1, Barnidge had zero catches with RGIII as the QB.  Week 2, everyone was excited that he was getting McCown back.  But he only had 5 catches for 37 yards.  This week, his QB will be rookie Cody Kessler.  Do you trust Cody to get him the ball?  I sure don't.  Maybe Barnidge will have a phenomenal game, but he'd have it on my bench if I owned him in a fantasy league.  This is way too risky of a play in my mind to be ranking Barnidge as a top-10 fantasy TE.

DEF
1.Seahawks   
2.Panthers 
3.Texans
4.Broncos 
5.Cardinals 
6.Dolphins
7.Bengals  
8.Giants 
9.Patriots
10.Packers
11.Steelers  
12.Jets 
13.Ravens
14.Rams
15.Bucs

Last week I was high on the Pittsburgh Steelers (ESPN #18, ME #10) and down on the Kansas City Chiefs (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED).  The fact is, neither put up many fantasy points and finished right next to each other in the middle of the pack (just outside of the top-15).  Dalton didn't throw any picks against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers still held the Bengals to just 16 points (with the lone TD coming in the final minutes, as mentioned above).  I still think they're an improved defense, and we'll see teams like them and the Giants in the rankings regularly in the coming weeks.  As for the Chiefs, I said I'd probably leave them on the bench until after their Week 5 bye, and I'm sticking with that.  I've expanded my defense list from 12 to 15 so I can hopefully always have a squad to be high/down on versus ESPN each week.  Let's see who I have for Week 3.

I'm high on: New York Giants (ESPN #17, ME #8) 
I already alluded to this above when I talked about Kirk Cousins, but I'm definitely worried this week as a Redskins fan.  Kirk hasn't been good against the Giants in his young career, and the G-Men look a lot better this season with their new additions on the defensive side of the ball.  I think they'll hold the Redskins to 20 points or less, force a couple of turnovers, and probably sack Kirk a few times as well.  They're a top-10 fantasy defense for me this week, and I just might pick them up and start them.

Image result for chiefs defenseI'm down on: Kansas City Chiefs (ESPN #11, ME NOT RANKED) 
Well, I still don't like the Chiefs this week, as they face a Jets offense that has been putting up a lot of points so far this season.  I'll just keep putting KC here until I'm wrong I guess...or at least until after their Week 5 bye.  I want to see Tamba Hali playing more than half the snaps, and I want to see the Chiefs play a weaker opponent.

Good luck to everyone in Week 3!  
(Except you, Andrew...)

Cheers,
Bart

No comments:

Post a Comment