There's always a little bit of uncertainty in these first couple of weeks of the fantasy season, and this year is no different. Looking at my Week 1 rankings from last year, here is a top-10 of what I thought I knew (and didn't):
1. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan were both top options in Week 1.
2. The top-10 RBs included Eddie Lacy and CJ Anderson.
3. Meanwhile, Devonta Freeman was not even in the top-40.
4. Dez Bryant was the #1 WR to start the first week.
5. Randall Cobb and Jordan Matthews were also top-12 picks.
6. DeAndre Hopkins was not.
7. Davante Adams was in the top-20.
8. Allen Robinson and Brandon Marshal were not.
9. Jimmy Graham was to be a top-5 TE every week.
10. Even Browns fans had never heard of Gary Barnidge.
Who will surprise and who will disappoint in 2016? We're about to find out. As usual, I'll give you some commentary after each position with a guy I like and a guy I don't like versus the ESPN consensus rankings (as of right now).
Let's get to it!
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Drew Brees
3.Russell Wilson
4.Andrew Luck
5.Derek Carr
6.Ben Roethlisberger
7.Carson Palmer
8.Cam Newton
9.Matthew Stafford
10.Eli Manning
11.Kirk Cousins
12.Blake Bortles
13.Jameis Winston
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14.Tyrod Taylor
15.Matt Ryan
16.Alex Smith
17.Marcus Mariota
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18.Philip Rivers
19.Andy Dalton
20.Dak Prescott
 I'm high on: Carson Palmer (ESPN #11, ME #7)
A top-5 fantasy QB in 2015, Palmer faces a middle of the road pass defense from last year. In fact, the best pass rusher for the Patriots last season (Chandler Jones) is now wearing a Cardinals uniform. Palmer didn't look great in the preseason, but who cares? It's the preseason! I say he throws for over 300 yards and at least 2 TDs, which he's done in every opener he's played since 2010 (except for one).
I'm down on: Philip Rivers (ESPN #14, ME #18)
Rivers faces a Chiefs defense that gave up the 2nd lowest QB rating to opposing teams in 2015, and they were nearly a top-5 defense against fantasy QBs. His combined stats against Kansas City the two times he faced them last year were 441 passing yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. He hasn't thrown a TD pass at Arrowhead since the 2013 season, and I don't like him in this opener.
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RBs |
1.Adrian Peterson
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2.Todd Gurley
3.Lamar Miller
4.David Johnson
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5.Ezekiel Elliott
6.Devonta Freeman
7.Eddie Lacy
8.Mark Ingram
9.Doug Martin
10.Latavius Murray
11.LeSean McCoy
12.DeAngelo Williams
13.Carlos Hyde
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14.Spencer Ware
15.Ryan Mathews
16.Rashad Jennings
17.CJ Anderson
18.Frank Gore
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19.Jeremy Langford
20.DeMarco Murray
21.Jonathan Stewart
22.Matt Forte
23.Jeremy Hill
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24.Christine Michael
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25.Ameer Abdullah
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26.Melvin Gordon
27.Arian Foster
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28.LeGarrette Blount
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29.Matt Jones
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30.Giovani Bernard
31.Chris Ivory
32.Isaiah Crowell
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33.Danny Woodhead
34.Justin Forsett
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35.Charles Sims
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36.Derrick Henry
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37.Duke Johnson
38.James White
39.Thomas Rawls
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40.Terrance West
41.TJ Yeldon
42.Theo Riddick
43.Bilal Powell
44.DeAndre Washington
45.Rob Kelley
I'm high on: LeGarrette Blount (ESPN #40, ME #28)
Picking the right Patriot RB in fantasy can be tough, but I'm going out on a limb with Blount in Week 1. I think the game flow will dictate that Garoppolo hand the rock off, and New England will try to march down the field with the power running game. Otherwise, I think this one could quickly get away from the Patriots. I could easily be totally wrong here, but I think Blount is a safe play as a FLEX, but the ESPN guys totally disagree.
I'm down on: DeAngelo Williams (ESPN #4, ME #12)
I understand that Le'Veon Bell isn't playing in this game. Believe me, I get it. I drafted DeAngelo and will be playing him this week. But a top-5 play? I hope I'm wrong here, but I just can't see ranking him ahead of guys like Eddie Lacy or Latavius Murray (ESPN has both of them tied for 12th, which is where I think DeAngelo belongs).
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WRs
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1.Antonio Brown
2.Julio Jones
3.Odell Beckham, Jr.
4.DeAndre Hopkins
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5.Allen Robinson
6.AJ Green
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7.Sammy Watkins
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8.Amari Cooper
9.Mike Evans
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10.Brandin Cooks
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11.Brandon Marshall
12.Dez Bryant
13.Alshon Jeffery
14.Jeremy Maclin
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15.Randall Cobb
16.Keenan Allen
17.Doug Baldwin
18.TY Hilton
19.DeMaryius Thomas
20.Eric Decker
21.Larry Fitzgerald
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22.Golden Tate
23.Jarvis Landry
24.Julian Edelman
25.Donte Moncrief
26.Marvin Jones Jr.
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27.Willie Snead
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28.Michael Floyd
29.Michael Crabtree
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30.Jordy Nelson
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31.John Brown
34.Emmanuel Sanders
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36.Devin Funchess
37.DeSean Jackson
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38.Corey Coleman
39.Tavon Austin
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40.Sterling Shepard
41.Stefon Diggs
42.Vincent Jackson
43.Torrey Smith
44.Kamar Aiken
45.Kevin White
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I'm high on: Willie Snead (ESPN #38, ME #27)
Oakland gave up the 7th most passing yards in 2015, and Drew Brees is an animal at home. I think he'll light up the scoreboard in this one, and Snead should get in plenty on the action. He's a borderline WR2 in this matchup.
 I'm down on: Jordy Nelson (ESPN #8, ME #30)
With Jordy coming off a torn ACL, I think Green Bay will be smart and ease him back into things this year. I think he'll be more of a decoy for a handful of weeks, and I think Randall Cobb will benefit big time early on. You may also notice I ranked Devin Funchess and not Kelvin Benjamin this week, as Ron Rivera has confirmed Benjamin will be on a snap count early on. I obviously expect the same for Jordy, and both might be tough to rank (and start) in the first few weeks of the season.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Jordan Reed
3.Greg Olsen
4.Travis Kelce
5.Delanie Walker
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6.Coby Fleener
7.Gary Barnidge
8.Julius Thomas
9.Zach Ertz
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10.Dwayne Allen
11.Antonio Gates
12.Jason Witten
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I'm high on: Dwayne Allen (ESPN #15, ME #10)
 The Lions gave up the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends last season, and Allen figures to benefit a great deal from the departure of Coby Fleener. I expect him to start the year off with a decent game, and I could see him with 60 yards and a TD against Detroit.
I'm down on: Martellus Bennett (ESPN #11, ME not ranked)
I realize the Patriots are likely to run a lot of two tight end sets, but I just don't believe in Garoppolo like I do Tom Brady. We'll see how this shakes out, but I'm not going to rank two tight ends on the same team in Week 1, especially when that team is starting their backup QB.
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DEF
1.Seahawks
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2.Cardinals
3.Panthers
4.Texans
5.Broncos
6.Chiefs
7.Rams
8.Vikings
9.Bengals
10.Jets
11.Packers
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12.Bills
 I'm high on: Arizona Cardinals (ESPN #8, ME #2)
I guess everyone believes in Jimmy Garoppolo, but count me as not one of those people. I think Arizona will dominate this game, and I don't think it'll be close. I could easily see New England making some adjustments and winning their next 3 games (which are all at home against decent but not great opponents). But as for Sunday night, I'm a believer in the Cardinals.
I'm down on: Green Bay Packers (ESPN #5, ME #11)
I actually drafted the Packers in my league, but then I realized later on that no one drafted the Rams so I picked them up. I'm more of a streaming defense kind of guy anyway. As for Green Bay, I like them OK in this game in Jacksonville, but I don't see them as a top-5 play. The Jags improved on offense with the addition of Chris Ivory, and Bortles and his entire receiving corps are healthy and more mature. I think this game could have a ton of points, and I don't think the Packers are a must-start this week.
Good luck to everyone in Week 1!
(Except you, Billy...)
Cheers,
Bart
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