BYES: Tennessee and New England
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
3.Matt Ryan
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15.Ryan Fitzpatrick
17.Blake Bortles
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19.Colin Kaepernick
20.Michael Vick
Last week I continued to be high on Andy Dalton versus the ESPN experts (6 spots higher in fact), and he finished as the #2 fantasy QB in Week 3 (behind Aaron Rodgers, of course). But instead of talking up the Red Rifle two weeks in a row, I wrote about Marcus Mariota (ESPN #14, ME #11), who finished as a top-12 QB as I predicted. Now he and Tom Brady have their bye week, so you'll have to look elsewhere if you've been rolling with either of those guys early on.
The guy I was down on, Drew Brees (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED), ended up not even playing against the Panthers. So yeah, I got that one right too. And before you say that was an easy pick, just know that my prediction was on Wednesday, and you'll notice the ESPN experts ranked Brees as a top-10 fantasy play. All signs are pointing to him playing this week against Dallas, but it's the Sunday night game. That makes for a risky play if he becomes a game time decision. I guess you could always have Brandon Weeden as Plan B, but I don't like that idea one bit. The other big injury news to mention is Roethlisberger going down with a knee injury in Week 3. He'll likely be out a few weeks, and Michael Vick will start tomorrow night against Baltimore. |
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| Trust in the Amish Rifle. |
I'm high on: Ryan Fitzpatrick (ESPN #23, ME #15)
You'll notice a trend that I continue to be higher than the ESPN experts on Andy Dalton, but again I'll try to pick someone different to talk up this week. The QB position this week looks pretty rough due to injuries and bye weeks. Once you get past Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning, you find yourself with no sure thing.
Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick (*crickets*)...
No, but seriously. Miami might be listed as the home team in this one, but really there is none since this one will be played across the pond. That's right, gents. We have our first of THREE games in London this NFL season (yippeeeeeee...). And don't look now, but the bearded wonder has thrown a pair of TDs in each of his first 3 games this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins just got torched last week by Tyrod and the Bills. I don't see their secondary putting up much of a fight in this one, and I like Fitzpatrick as a decent streamer if you have someone like Brady, Romo, or Big Ben.
I'm down on: Ryan Tannehill (ESPN #14, ME #18)
Let's stick with the same game because that Jets D is looking strong early on. Going back to last week again, Ryan Tannehill needed lots of garbage time to produce a decent fantasy day against the Bills. Granted, garbage time points count too. But I don't see that happening in this contest. I think it'll be relatively low scoring with these east coasters feeling like they're playing a football game when they should be in bed at 9am. Oh, a double standard you say because I ranked Fitzpatrick so highly versus the ESPN experts? Maybe. But I only ranked him a couple spots higher than Tannehill, and the Dolphins haven't faced a secondary quite like the Jets yet this season.
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RBs |
1.Le'Veon Bell
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2.Jamaal Charles
3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte
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5.Eddie Lacy
6.Latavius Murray
7.Marshawn Lynch
8.Joseph Randle
9.Frank Gore
10.Mark Ingram
11.Karlos Williams
12.Carlos Hyde
13.Devonta Freeman
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14.Melvin Gordon
15.Jonathan Stewart
16.Jeremy Hill
17.Justin Forsett
18.CJ Anderson
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19.Chris Ivory
20.DeMarco Murray
21.TJ Yeldon
22.Giovani Bernard
23.Alfred Blue
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24.Chris Johnson
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25.Matt Jones
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26.Danny Woodhead
27.Lamar Miller
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28.Isaiah Crowell
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29.Doug Martin
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30.Alfred Morris
31.Ameer Abdullah
32.Todd Gurley
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33.Darren Sproles
34.Lance Dunbar
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35.Shane Vereen
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36.Ronnie Hillman
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37.Rashad Jennings
38.Ryan Mathews
39.Bilal Powell
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40.David Johnson
While I nailed the QBs last week, once again I was way off on my RB picks. I was high on Isaiah Crowell (ESPN #23, ME #18) , but the Browns fell behind early and mostly stuck with the passing game. That could be a theme for teams like Cleveland in a lot of weeks, so maybe I should stick with RBs on winning teams for my picks. Speaking of which, I totally whiffed in Week 3 on Arizona's Chris Johnson (ESPN #27, ME #35). With rookie David Johnson outplaying CJOK the previous week, I was unsure about the veteran. Well, Chris Johnson got 150 total yards and 2 TDs on his way to a top-5 performance. Oops! Now it appears that Andre Ellington could return this week, so the Arizona backfield becomes even harder to figure out against the Rams.
Some big names with injuries to keep an eye on include Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, and Arian Foster. It's only Wednesday, so a lot can change between now and Sunday. But from what I've read, I'm thinking McCoy and Foster won't go and Lynch/Murray will be OK. And while that's just my opinion based on very little information, my rankings clearly reflect those thoughts. If Marshawn and DeMarco don't play in Week 4, I'd rank Ryan Mathews and Thomas Rawls right around 21-24 (making them a must-start in most leagues). Just keep a close watch on your injured guys leading up to kickoff!
I'm high on: CJ Anderson (ESPN #25, ME #18)
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| "Hey man. So yeah. Um. Stop suckin'. OK. Good talk." |
I'm definitely much higher on Alfred Blue than the ESPN experts, but that's because most of them are more optimistic than I am in ranking Arian Foster as an RB1 in Week 4 (when he hasn't yet proven he's even healthy enough to play, much less produce). But I digress. Clearly, CJ Anderson has been a huge bust through the first three games of the season. But it's ONLY been 3 games, and he's been dealing with some injuries. Granted, I'm not sure he's fully healthy from those injuries. But I do feel confident that he'll continue to get plenty of work in a Denver offense that is likely to put up 30+ points at home against Minnesota. I think he'll find the endzone in Week 4, and I'd roll with him one more week before benching him.
I'm down on: Lamar Miller (ESPN #21, ME #27)
On the other hand, I would consider benching Lamar Miller this week against the Jets. Man, I'm really down on the Dolphins this week, huh? What can I say? I think the Dolphins could suffer from.....
(wait for it)
...JET LAG!
Sorry about that. OK, on to the wide receivers.
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WRs
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1.Julio Jones
2.AJ Green
3.Randall Cobb
4.Odell Beckham, Jr.
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5.DeMaryius Thomas
6.DeAndre Hopkins
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7.Antonio Brown
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8.Larry Fitzgerald
9.Emmanuel Sanders
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10.Brandon Marshall
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11.Amari Cooper
12.Calvin Johnson
13.Mike Evans
14.TY Hilton
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15.Steve Smith
16.Keenan Allen
17.Jordan Matthews
18.Donte Moncrief
19.James Jones
20.Allen Robinson
21.Jeremy Maclin
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22.Brandin Cooks
23.Jarvis Landry
24.John Brown
25.Steve Johnson
26.Pierre Garcon
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27.Alshon Jeffery
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28.Vincent Jackson
29.Michael Crabtree
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30.Rishard Matthews
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31.Percy Harvin
34.Travis Benjamin
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36.Kenny Britt
37.Anquan Boldin
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38.Doug Baldwin
39.Golden Tate
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40.Ted Ginn, Jr.
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Well, I was 1 for 2 on my WR picks last week...sort of. I was down on Alshon Jeffery (ESPN #20, ME #28) who, like my Brees pick, ended up right because he didn't play. But I'll take it because the guy I was high on, Terrance Williams (ESPN #29, ME #20), laid an egg against the Falcons. I couldn't believe how little Brandon Weeden did in that game, but it was next to nothing. It looks like with Romo out of that lineup, we're going to see a lot from the RBs and TEs from the Cowboys. I've lowered Terrance Williams accordingly this week...
I'm high on: Marvin Jones (ESPN #49, ME #32)
ESPN has no respect for Cincy's passing game. If you hadn't noticed, Marvin Jones has a touchdown in each of his last two games. Andy Dalton is no Aaron Rodgers, but he is playing well and I could see him finding Marvin for another score against a Chiefs defense that just gave up 5 passing TDs to the Pack.
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I'm down on: Golden Tate (ESPN #28, ME #39)
Forgive me for not believing in Matthew Stafford against the Legion of Boom...in Seattle. If he can manage any passing yards, I feel like it has to be to Megatron in this one. Golden Tate is a good playmaker, but I wouldn't trust him as he returns to his old stomping grounds.
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TEs
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1.Greg Olsen
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2.Jimmy Graham
3.Martellus Bennett
4.Travis Kelce
5.Tyler Eifert
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6.Jason Witten
7.Jordan Reed
8.Charles Clay
9.Eric Ebron
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10.Jordan Cameron
11.Kyle Rudolph
12.Coby Fleener
For the third week in a row, I didn't rank Heath Miller in my top-12. This time he finally had a stinker of a game. And now that Big Ben is sidelined for a while, I can't imagine relying on a Vick to Heath connection on a regular basis. Sorry, Heath Miller. You're still not in my rankings this week. Otherwise, my rankings were pretty similar to ESPN's. But I did mention that I almost ranked Charles Clay, who was back in Miami playing against his former team. Call it a "revenge game" if you like, but I'll call it a top-5 fantasy day. I'm actually ranking Clay this week as he's starting to show some chemistry with Tyrod.
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| I like Fleener to stay on his feet against Jacksonville. |
This week, my top-7 is exactly the same as ESPN's consensus rankings. But after that, there is one glaring difference between my rankings and theirs. And that has to be Coby Fleener, who I squeezed into my top-12 but who ESPN has ranked 20th! With Dwyane Allen likely out again with an ankle injury, it should leave Fleener to have a productive day against a Jags team giving up top-10 fantasy numbers to TEs through 3 weeks. I realize Fleener had a similar chance last week and didn't produce, but this is the Jags we're talking about, people! Have a little faith in their mediocrity!!! |
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DEF
1.Seahawks
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2.Cardinals
3.Broncos
4.Bills
5.Panthers
6.Jets
7.Packers
8.Bengals
9.Eagles
10.Colts
11.Ravens
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12.Chargers
I haven't really been able to figure out defenses too well through 3 weeks. Like I said, I played Miami in my money league last week, and they were the WORST out of all 32 teams in Week 3. Granted, pretty much every expert had them as a top-10 fantasy play at home against the Bills. So I wasn't alone in my thinking. But still it hurts, especially when I lost by such a close margin...
I was high on the Panthers last week (ESPN #10, ME #5), but they actually finished as a pretty middle of the road fantasy defense...even against a Drew Brees-less Saints team. I think they must really miss Luke Kuechly leading the charge, and they could be an elite defense when he finally returns. I was also down on the Bills (ESPN #4, ME #10), but they were a top-5 fantasy D against the Dolphins. I guess I was wrong about that game in more ways than one.
This week, my top-10 is the same as ESPN's (just in a different order from their consensus rankings). So it's really hard for me to say that I'm high/down on anyone this week versus them. And considering my poor performance thusfar with my team defense in my money league, I think I'll just stay away from this one in Week 4. In fact, as of this writing, I don't even have a defense on my team. I waived Miami D for Alfred Blue, and I'm probably going to wait until Sunday to see who I'll plug into my FLEX position and just pick someone up off the waiver wire and see what happens this week. Hopefully I don't put up another negative number from my defense...
Good luck to everyone in Week 4!
(Except you, Billy...)
Cheers,
Bart
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