Wednesday, September 9, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

Just adding to the list of reasons I don't like Bishop Sankey...
Well the preseason is in the books, and my money league draft went on without a...well, it was a fun night.

You see, once the draft starts, we have a rule that you have to take a shot of liquor if you say the name of an NFL player who hasn't been drafted yet.  You also have to take a shot if you make an official pick and that player has already been drafted.  I think for most of our previous live drafts, there are usually 2 or 3 shots taken. This draft there were 18.

I don't know what was going on.  Maybe it was contagious.  Hell, I did two of them for mentioning Bishop Sankey and...wait for it...Michael Vick!  But it's all in good fun.

Now it's on to Week 1, and this year I'm not missing the Thursday night opener.  Last year I didn't see it because my wife and I were at a Brad Paisley concert in Austin, TX.  I can't complain though because it was a really good show.  But no country music for me this Thursday night.  It'll just be me, the wife, the dog, and...freaking Tom Brady.  Actually, I'm not even sure how much my wife will watch the game because she hates Brady almost as much as she hates Roethlisberger (and he's the other QB playing).  But you already knew that, right?

What about the other matchups though?  Have you looked at them yet?  Well, they definitely play a big part in my Week 1 rankings.  As usual, I'll give you some commentary after each position with a guy I like and a guy I don't like versus the ESPN consensus rankings.

Let's get to it!

QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Peyton Manning  
3.Matt Ryan 
4.Tom Brady 
5.Andrew Luck
6.Tony Romo
7.Ben Roethlisberger 
8.Eli Manning 
9.Ryan Tannehill
10.Sam Bradford  
11.Russell Wilson 
12.Drew Brees  
13.Carson Palmer 
14.Cam Newton    
15.Philip Rivers
16.Jay Cutler 
17.Matthew Stafford  
18.Colin Kaepernick
19.Teddy Bridgewater
20.Joe Flacco

Just like the start of last year, guys like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith aren't even in my top-20.  And honestly, if you drafted one of those guys as your starting QB, you're probably in trouble. I also didn't rank Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston, even though both are facing each other's weak defenses.  You're probably not starting either rookie in Week 1 (or Tyrod Taylor for that matter), but if you have the guts then go for it.  Personally, I have plenty of other guys higher than all of them.  But let's see who I'm high/down on versus the ESPN experts, shall we?
Eli lit up the Cowboys in 2014.
I'm high on: Eli Manning (ESPN #12, ME #8) 
I'm not going to dig too deep into Eli's career statistics versus the Cowboys, but last year he threw for 3 TDs in each game he faced them.  Oh, and the best corner for Dallas (Orlando Scandrick) is on injured reserve.  I realize he'll likely be without Victor Cruz for this one, but OBJ and Randle should be just fine against that secondary.  


I'm down on: Drew Brees (ESPN #8, ME #12) 
It's tough not to like a guy like Brees, but he is just so much worse away from the Superdome than in it.  And on top of that, he's playing a pretty solid defense in Arizona to start the season.  No one really knows what he'll be like without Jimmy Graham (it's been a while), and I think this will be a tough test right out of the gate.  I barely like him as a QB1 this week.

RBs
1.Eddie Lacy
2.Adrian Peterson
3.Jeremy Hill 
4.Jamaal Charles 
5.DeMarco Murray
6.Matt Forte 
7.Marshawn Lynch 
8.Jonathan Stewart 
9.CJ Anderson
10.Lamar Miller 
11.LeSean McCoy
12.Justin Forsett  
13.Andre Ellington 
14.Mark Ingram  
15.Carlos Hyde   
16.Frank Gore
17.Chris Ivory 
18.Latavius Murray  
19.Alfred Morris
20.Doug Martin
21.Melvin Gordon 
22.TJ Yeldon
23.Alfred Blue 
24.Isaiah Crowell
25.Rashad Jennings  
26.DeAngelo Williams
27.Joique Bell 
28.Tevin Coleman
29.Darren McFadden
30.Ameer Abdullah  
31.Bishop Sankey 
32.Joseph Randle  
33.Benny Cunningham
34.Brandon Bolden
35.Danny Woodhead 
36.Giovani Bernard  
37.Shane Vereen
38.Ryan Mathews 
39.Duke Johnson
40.Dion Lewis

I'm high on: Jonathan Stewart (ESPN #14, ME #8) 
If you scrolled through my list, you might've done a double take when you got to this name.  But think about it.  He's playing the Jags, who gave up top-5 numbers to fantasy RBs last season.  Kelvin Benjamin is hurt and who knows who Cam will be throwing to other than Greg Olsen?  I just think the Panthers will give it to The Daily Show a ton in this game, and I like him as a top-10 play.

I'm down on: Giovani Bernard (ESPN #29, ME #36) 
Speaking of running a lot, I'm sure the Bengals will be doing that plenty in Oakland this week.  But I think Jeremy Hill will get fed, and he'll likely put up a good number AGAINST my fantasy team this week.  That being said, there are a lot of other guys I like ahead of Gio in Week 1.  I'd much rather try my luck with Bishop Sankey or Brandon Bolden, both of whom I think will end up with twice as many touches as Bernard in Week 1.

WRs
1.Dez Bryant 
2.Julio Jones
3.Antonio Brown
4.Odell Beckham, Jr. 
5.DeMaryius Thomas 
6.Calvin Johnson
7.AJ Green
8.Emmanuel Sanders 
9.Julian Edelman 
10.Randall Cobb 
11.Jordan Matthews 
12.TY Hilton   
13.Alshon Jeffery 
14.Brandin Cooks
15.DeAndre Hopkins  
16.Mike Evans 
17.Jarvis Landry 
18.Keenan Allen 
19.Davante Adams 
20.Jeremy Maclin
21.Andre Johnson
22.Allen Robinson
23.Amari Cooper 
24.Steve Smith 
25.Golden Tate
26.Larry Fitzgerald    
27.Vincent Jackson 
28.Brandon Marshall  
29.John Brown  
30.Sammy Watkins
31.DeSean Jackson  
32.Charles Johnson  
33.Nelson Agholor 
34.Anquan Boldin
35.Mike Wallace
36.Eric Decker  
37.Eddie Royal
38.Roddy White
39.Marques Colston 
40.Rueben Randle

I'm high on: Larry Fitzgerald (ESPN #40, ME #26) 
I realize Fitz had a down year, but Carson Palmer is back, people!  I think Michael Floyd won't play in this game, so it'll be Larry and John Brown who get most of the looks.  I like both of them in this one, and I definitely don't think Fitzgerald should be down in the 40s...

I don't trust this combo just yet.
I'm down on: Brandon Marshall 
(ESPN #20, ME #28) 
Some of this has to do with  my belief in the Browns defense (specifically Joe Haden to shut down Marshall and Tashaun Gipson to light him up if Joe needs help in coverage).  Some of it has to do with my doubt in Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Even more has to do with my thought that the Jets will pound it with Ivory a lot in this game.  Take your pick, but I don't like Marshall as a WR2 this week.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Greg Olsen
3.Jimmy Graham
4.Martellus Bennett 
5.Travis Kelce
6.Jason Witten
7.Jordan Cameron 
8.Delanie Walker
9.Tyler Eifert
10.Owen Daniels
11.Larry Donnell
12.Kyle Rudolph
I'm high on: Tyler Eifert (ESPN #13, ME #9) 
I've been high on this guy all preseason, but I ended up drafting Kelce pretty early in my money league.  Otherwise I probably would have reached way too far to secure Eifert, but maybe it's for the best.  Time will tell, but I like Eifert to be a top-10 TE this week against a Raider D that gave up top-10 fantasy points to the position in 2014.


I'm down on: Heath Miller (ESPN #9, ME not ranked) 
I realize the Steelers will be without Martavis Bryant in this one, but that was also the case for the first 6 games last season.  What did Heath do in those contests?  How about 44 yards/game and 1 TD (total)?  Yeah, not much.  In fact, he only had 3 TDs in all of 2014, which is pretty standard for him these days.  I would much rather try my luck with a younger guy than start Miller tomorrow night. 

DEF
1.Jets
2.Dolphins 
3.Panthers 
4.Seahawks 
5.Packers
6.Texans  
7.Bengals
8.Chiefs
9.Broncos
10.Browns 
11.Rams 
12.Cardinals

Will we see this on Sunday? I don't think so...



I'm high on: Cleveland Browns 
(ESPN #17, ME #10) 
I already alluded to this pick while talking about Brandon Marshall earlier, but I pretty much dislike all of the Jets this week.  I wish it was Geno Smith the Browns were going up against, but Fitzpatrick will have to do.  I like this game to be low scoring, and I'm hoping for a defensive touchdown to kick the year off right!

I'm down on: Buffalo Bills (ESPN #5, ME not ranked)  Two words: Andrew Luck.

Good luck to everyone in Week 1!  
(Except you, Andy...)

Cheers,
Bart

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