Wednesday, September 23, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings


Yes, I'm recycling this picture from last week.  I like it...
If your fantasy team is now 0-2, you're not in terrible company.  No, I'm not talking about me.  Although I did get CRUSHED in my ESPN league (which leaves me at 0-2 there), I won in my other two and feel like I'm back on track.  Side note: The LADIES in that league are 10-0.  *APPLAUSE*

No, I'm actually talking about the real NFL teams like the Seahawks, Colts, Saints, Eagles, and Ravens (to name a few).  All of them lost their first two games of the 2015 season, and history tells us that most of them will not make the playoffs this year.  Personally, I'll be pretty surprised if the Colts and Seahawks don't make it back to the playoffs.  But the others?  Yeah, I could see them missing out this year. 

What about your fantasy team though?  Are you done at 0-2?  Hell no!  It's time to focus, people.  If your little fantasy players have been lucky enough to escape the injury bug, you're ahead of some teams out there.  If you have guys like Dez Bryant or Jordy Nelson but drafted well (or have been paying attention to the waiver wire early on), you may have some guys on your bench who can fill in.  Depth is becoming more and more important, and keep in mind that the byes start in Week 4.  If you're keeping track...that's NEXT week!

But let's get back to THIS week and see how the rankings are shaping up, shall we?
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers 
2.Tom Brady 
3.Russell Wilson 
4.Andrew Luck
5.Ben Roethlisberger
6.Carson Palmer
7.Matt Ryan 
8.Peyton Manning 
9.Cam Newton 
10.Eli Manning 
11.Marcus Mariota  
12.Ryan Tannehill 
13.Philip Rivers 
14.Andy Dalton 
15.Teddy Bridgewater
16.Colin Kaepernick 
17.Ryan Fitzpatrick 
18.Tyrod Taylor
19.Matt Stafford
20.Nick Foles

Last week I was high on Andy Dalton (ESPN #27, ME #19) versus the ESPN experts and down on Tony Romo (ESPN #6, ME #10).  Yes and double yes.  The Red Rifle finished as a top-10 fantasy QB, and Romo's bad fantasy day got worse when he got knocked out with a broken clavicle in the second half.  He obviously finished outside of the top-25 fantasy QBs in Week 2, but he was no where along the way to a top-10 finish as it was before the injury.  With Romo and Dez now out (and DeMarco obviously in Philly), Dallas is looking pretty thin at the offensive skill positions.  Maybe my Redskins will find a way to win the NFC East this year with a 7-9 record!
Where's the love, ESPN?
I'm high on: Marcus Mariota (ESPN #14, ME #11) 
Once again, I'm 6 spots higher than the ESPN experts on Andy Dalton this week.  But I thought I'd highlight someone else I really like in Week 3.  Marcus Mariota has thrown 6 TDs in his first two NFL starts, and both have been on the road.  Now he plays the Colts in Tennessee's home opener, and I think he'll keep it going and finish as a QB1 yet again.

I'm down on: Drew Brees (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) 
Early reports (/overreactions?) this week had Brees potentially missing several weeks with a shoulder injury.  Now it looks like Drew is going to try to suit up in Carolina on Sunday, but I don't know how much I'd trust him as my fantasy QB this week.  I tend to rank him lower on the road anyway, but I definitely don't agree with him being a top-10 fantasy QB this week.  In fact, I think it's very possible he either doesn't start or doesn't finish this contest.

RBs
1.Adrian Peterson    
2.Marshawn Lynch  
3.Jamaal Charles 
4.Le'Veon Bell
5.Matt Forte
6.LeSean McCoy 
7.Jeremy Hill 
8.Eddie Lacy
9.Latavius Murray 
10.Justin Forsett 
11.Joseph Randle  
12.Carlos Hyde 
13.DeMarco Murray
14.Jonathan Stewart  
15.Chris Ivory 
16.Mark Ingram 
17.CJ Anderson  
18.Isaiah Crowell 
19.Lamar Miller
20.Frank Gore
21.TJ Yeldon 
22.Alfred Morris 
23.Melvin Gordon    
24.Dion Lewis 
25.Devonta Freeman   
26.Doug Martin 
27.Danny Woodhead 
28.Matt Jones
29.LeGarrette Blount
30.Rashad Jennings
31.Ameer Abdullah 
32.Bishop Sankey 
33.Giovani Bernard 
34.Todd Gurley
35.Chris Johnson
36.Shane Vereen 
37.David Johnson
38.Chris Polk 
39.CJ Spiller 
40.Darren Sproles 

If you nailed the top-3 fantasy RB trifecta in Week 2, give yourself a pat on the back:
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Matt Jones
3. Dion Lewis

Last week I was high on Rashad Jennings (ESPN #22, ME #16), but the G-men went with a 3-headed attack from the RB position as they lost at home to Atlanta.  Maybe they should have stuck with Jennings...?  Either way, this looks to be a backfield to possibly avoid altogether for the time being.  Shane Vereen is the only guy I think I could trust right now to at least get a lot of catches out of the backfield, but I do have Jennings slightly higher for tomorrow night's game.

I was also wrong in being down on Melvin Gordon (ESPN #26, ME #33), who finished as a top-25 fantasy RB.  Little Danny Woodhead actually finished just ahead of Gordon in fantasy points, even though he received fewer touches.  This is an interesting backfield to monitor as they travel to Minnesota this week.  It could be that Gordon will start getting more and more carries, but I could also see the Chargers sticking with Woodhead near the goal line and in the hurry up offense until the rookie proves his worth.  Also pay attention to injured RBs leading up to kickoff, as a lot of big names have been hit with the questionable tag early in the week: DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, and many others.

I'm high on: Isaiah Crowell (ESPN #23, ME #18) 
He didn't find much room to run against the Jets in Week 1, but Crowell had a solid game in last week's win over the Titans.  I look for him to get get 75-80 total yards and a touchdown against a Raider D that has given up a ton of fantasy points to RBs early on.

I'm down on: Chris Johnson (ESPN #27, ME #35) 
I realize CJOK got 10 carries in Week 1 and 20 carries in Week 2.  But rookie David Johnson also outplayed him last week, and I could see him easily overtaking the veteran while Ellington is sidelined.  I have a hard time trusting Chris Johnson any week, but especially right now while the rookie is hot.
WRs
1.Antonio Brown
2.Julio Jones
3.Odell Beckham, Jr. 
4.Randall Cobb     
5.DeMaryius Thomas 
6.Julian Edelman 
7.AJ Green 
8.Emmanuel Sanders 
9.Calvin Johnson 
10.DeAndre Hopkins 
11.Brandon Marshall  
12.Allen Robinson
13.TY Hilton 
14.Jarvis Landry 
15.Larry Fitzgerald  
16.Jordan Matthews
17.Keenan Allen 
18.Brandin Cooks  
19.Mike Evans 
20.Terrance Williams 
21.Steve Smith  
22.Amari Cooper  
23.Jeremy Maclin 
24.John Brown 
25.Sammy Watkins
26.Kendall Wright 
27.Donte Moncrief  
28.Alshon Jeffery   
29.Pierre Garcon 
30.Vincent Jackson     
31.Steve Johnson 
32.Davante Adams 
33.Golden Tate
34.Andre Johnson
35.James Jones 
36.Doug Baldwin 
37.Anquan Boldin
38.Mike Wallace
39.Torrey Smith
40.Travis Benjamin

Even though TY Hilton played on Monday night, it was Donte Moncrief who finished as a  top-10 fantasy WR in Week 2.  I had a hard time ranking Moncrief and Andre Johnson last week, but I'll be ranking the young buck higher for the foreseeable future.  Week 2 also saw Larry Fitzgerald turn back the clock with a 3-TD performance in Chicago, and Antonio Brown continued to show that he's the clear #1 fantasy WR in the game.  I was high on Fitz's teammate John Brown (ESPN #24, ME #16), but it was the old man stealing all of the fantasy points in Week 2.  I was down on  the rookie Amari Cooper (ESPN #17, ME #30), and he broke off a 68-yard TD in the opening drive of the game and finished just outside of the top-10 fantasy WRs  Not only was I wrong about Cooper, but I have a very unhappy wife on my hands with the Ravens at 0-2 after losing in Oakland...

I'm high on: Terrance Williams (ESPN #29, ME #20) 
I realize he now has Brandon Weeden throwing to him, but that's the guy who hit him for a TD against the Eagles after Romo went out last Sunday.  Now in addition to Dez being out, Jason Witten is banged up and might not go against the Falcons.  I'm sure the Cowboys will try to run a TON in this game, but when they do throw, I feel like it has to be to Terrance.  I think he'll get 10+ targets and turn that into a solid top-20 performance.

Do you trust Alshon this week?
I'm down on: Alshon Jeffery (ESPN #20, ME #28) 
Before I saw ESPN's rankings, I actually thought I might be too high on Alshon this week.  He's playing in Seattle against a defense hungry for a win at 0-2 (and who just got Kam Chancellor back).  He's probably still not 100% healthy, but who knows?  He also will have Jimmy Clausen throwing to him instead of Jay Cutler.  Take your pick from those reasons, but I don't like Jeffery in Week 3.
TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Travis Kelce
3.Greg Olsen
4.Jimmy Graham
5.Tyler Eifert
6.Martellus Bennett 
7.Jordan Reed
8.Kyle Rudolph
9.Jason Witten 
10.Eric Ebron 
11.Delanie Walker 
12.Jared Cook


Nope! Still not ranking you, Heath!
Last week I didn't rank Heath Miller in my top-12 AGAIN.  And again, ESPN did.  The guy caught two passes for 15 yards: one for a TD and one for a 2-point conversion.  What the heck?!?  I'd still play a young guy over him, and I'm not ranking him for a 3rd week in a row!  If you want to go against me and roll with Heath, I'll understand.  But I just can't rank the old wahoo.  Otherwise, my rankings are pretty similar to ESPN's.  I guess I like Jared Cook there at #12 a little more than the experts, but I'm not betting my paycheck on him either.  I almost ranked Charles Clay, who will be back in Miami playing his former team.  I always like revenge games like that, but they also don't always work out (see DeMarco Murray last week).

DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Broncos 
3.Patriots
4.Cardinals
5.Panthers  
6.Texans 
7.Jets 
8.Dolphins 
9.Browns
10.Bills 
11.Rams
12.Packers

I was 1 for 2 in this spot last week.  I was high on the Chiefs (ESPN #20, ME #9), and they finished as a top-10 fantasy defense as they lost a heart-breaker on Thursday night to Denver.  I was also down on the Patriots though (ESPN #11, ME not ranked), and they actually finished ahead of KC among fantasy defenses in Week 2.  This week I have New England near the top as they host the Jags, but I have Seattle against the Jimmy Clausen led Bears as my top pick.

I'm high on: Carolina Panthers (ESPN #10, ME #5) 
If you told me Luke Kuechly would definitely play in this game and Drew Brees wouldn't, I'd consider ranking Carolina above Seattle this week.  As of today though, we don't know either of those things.  But either way, I like the Panthers at home in this one to get to 3-0 and put up some decent fantasy points on the defensive side of the ball while doing it.

One of the best Ds in the league? We'll see...
I'm down on: Buffalo Bills (ESPN #4, ME #10)  
Sure, they looked great Week 1 against the Colts...but the Jets looked pretty good against Luck and the boys too.  Last week the Patriots dropped 40 points on the Bills, and they made it look easy.  Some of that is the Brady/Gronk/Edelman train, but I'm not sure some of it is that Buffalo might not be this great defense everyone thinks they are.  Now they have their first road game of the season, and it's a division matchup against the Dolphins.  I actually like Miami as a better fantasy defense than the Bills in this game, and I'll try to hang my hat on that.

Good luck to everyone in Week 3!  
(Except you, Jimmy...)

Cheers,
Bart

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