Guys Ready for the Next Level, 2014 Edition

There are many types of fantasy football articles out there on the interwebs: sleepers, busts, 2nd year WRs ready to break out, 3rd year WRs ready to break out, expert mock drafts, rookies...the list goes on and on.  You may have even read Matthew Berry's annual manifesto he released yesterday.  It's a long one, but a damn good read in my option.  Well after starting my fantasy football writing season off with the guys I'll let someone else draft, I thought I'd go more positive with this piece and talk about players ready for the next level.  Please take note that these aren't necessarily sleepers I'm going to talk about here, but they kind of fit into that category (however you define a "sleeper").  And they aren't all going to be young guys ready to be superstars in the NFL (as you'll quickly see with the QB I've chosen).  I'm trying to help you win your fantasy league this year, not set you up for 2015 or 2016.

Floyd definitely made the leap to the next level in 2013.

The category I think all of these men do fit into is one that includes players primed to make that jump into the next tier of their respective fantasy football positions.  Some of this is based on talent and growth.  Some of it is simply opportunity.  Some is a combination of those things and others.  However you want to describe it, I've created a fake team of players who I believe are ready to make that next step.  In fact, I could see myself drafting any number of these guys earlier than other owners in my league, and in most cases I moved them up in my last rankings update accordingly.

Last year I featured guys like Andrew Luck and Michael Floyd on this list, but I also had Chris Ivory ready to make a leap in fantasy value.  You win some, you lose some.  Let's see what 2014 has in store!

QB: Josh McCown

I wanted so badly to talk about Russel Wilson here, but I couldn't do it.  You see, Wilson has been just inside of the top-10 fantasy QBs in each of his first two seasons.  But what do I think he'll do this year?  Pretty much the same thing.  Even IF Percy Harvin manages to stay healthy all season (and that's a big "if"), I still don't think Wilson will jump into the top-5 fantasy QBs in 2014.  But a guy I do think is ready for a big boost in fantasy value is Josh McCown.

And what better way to start this list than with a 35 year old QB who has only had 7 NFL starts since 2007?  Well, keep in mind that I'm not saying McCown is ready to be a superstar in this league.  But what I am saying is that he's about to make a huge leap from where his value was in previous seasons.  I mean, had you even heard of Josh McCown before last year?

(And are you sure you're not thinking of Luke McCown right now...?  Oh you don't know that name either?  Let's carry on then...)

So maybe you remember Josh as the starting QB for Arizona a few years back, but that's only if you really pay attention to football.  Otherwise, the guy is a relative unknown.  But he finally finds himself in a good situation for maybe the first time in his career.  He goes to Tampa to play for "new" head coach Lovie Smith, and the Bucs just drafted several offensive weapons for him to work with in his new digs.  Of course we could be looking at another Matt Flynn situation here, but I don't think so.  I'm thinking more along the lines of Rich Gannon, and so is this guy.  Again, not saying he's taking the Bucs to the Super Bowl in his first year.  But if McCown throws for 3000+ yards and 25+ TDs, he could land in the top-20 fantasy QBs this year (and that's exactly what I'm thinking).  He'll probably put up Alex Smith-type numbers and be a solid fantasy QB, which is a lot more than you could have said for him in any other year leading up to this one.  I guarantee that if he goes undrafted in your league, he'll be rostered by Week 3 when the Bucs travel to fantasy QB-friendly Atlanta...

I also considered: Ryan Tannehill
Why he didn't make the team: In his 6 years at Texas A&M and now Miami, Tannehill has worked with the same offensive system under Mike Sherman.  When Sherman was fired earlier this year, the Dolphins brought in Bill Lazor from Philly.  Of course you could look at that as a very positive thing, seeing as how Nick Foles emerged as a star last year in that offense.  But I'm not so sure Tannehill will hit the ground running with the new schemes.  It has me a little gun shy on saying he'll continue to improve and take it to the next level in fantasy value, though it's definitely possible.

RB: Toby Gerhart

I'm not going to give you names like Montee Ball or Andre Ellington here because they're obvious choices.  No one is sleeping on those two, but I think people might not be ready for what Toby is about to bring to the table in Jacksonville.  I'm also now realizing a theme I'm starting here with guys who have sat behind stars for most of their career and finally getting the chance to be "the guy" themselves in new cities.  That doesn't always work out, but I'm thinking it will for McCown and Gerhart.

So why will it work out for Gerhart?  First of all, the coaches in Jacksonville are already proclaiming him the "bell cow" RB for the upcoming season.  So that's a good start.  And why wouldn't they be doing that?  There's no proven threat backing him up at the position, which is another positive box to check.  The former 2nd round pick out of Stanford has a career average yards per carry of 4.7, and he has learned behind one of the best running backs in the league...period.  When he had an opportunity here or there with the Vikings, I feel like he made the most of it.  Now that he'll have a much better opportunity to be the main focus of an offense, I think it gives him RB1 potential in fantasyland.

I also considered: Trent Richardson
Why he didn't make the team: Maybe another name that is too obvious, but he looked downright awful in 2013.  Can he return to his rookie form...or even build on it?  I don't know.  I feel like TRich could have a breakout year, but I also feel like he could average 3 yards/carry and plod along to mediocrity yet again.

RB: Joique Bell

Reggie Bush isn't quite to that dreaded age of 30 for a running back, but he's close.  Detroit was smart and signed Bell to a contract extension this offseason that keeps the Michigander in his home state through the 2016 season.  Bush is also under contract through the same season, so it seems the Lions plan to use both backs at least for a little while longer (or at least until one of them breaks down).  My money would be on Reggie for that, seeing as how he's entering his 9th season and Bell only his 3rd really.  Joique isn't a young spring chicken himself, as he turns 28 in August.  But he has nearly 1000 fewer career rushing attempts than Bush, so he still has a lot of tread on the tires (to keep this car metaphor going...why not?...it's Detroit after all).

See, Reggie would be like "It's cooooooooold out here..."

I look for the Lions to continue to utilize both running backs in their pass-heavy offense, but Bell should continue to get the goalline work.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see him end up with more carries than Reggie this year, and ultimately maybe even more fantasy points.  I don't have them currently ranked to reflect that possibility, but they might move closer and closer to each other in my rankings as training camp starts.  Either way, Bell is definitely ready to go from a late round fantasy pick to something much more.

I also considered: Khiry Robinson
Why he didn't make the team: I would say I didn't list him here because of Mark Ingram, but it's really due to Sean Payton.  People who follow fantasy football give Belichick a hard time because of how he utilizes his running backs, but Payton is just as bad (if not worse).  It's always tough to figure out who will get the carries (or receptions) for New Orleans or New England.  That alone has me a little reluctant to dub Khiry Robinson the next Curtis Martin, as Bill Parcells apparently did back in January.

WR: Terrance Williams

Again, big names like Golden Tate and Emmanuel Sanders felt too easy here.  Both of those guys are with new teams with good QBs who will be throwing to them a lot.  I get it.  Everyone gets it.

Instead, I'm sticking with the 2nd year WR trend and trying to repeat last year's big pick, Michael Floyd.  This year I think it's time for Terrance Williams to break the 1000 yard mark and haul in 6 or 7 TDs.  Looking around the league, no one appears to be in a better position than Williams to do just that.  Dallas got rid of Miles Austin in the offseason, which tells me they have plenty of faith in the 2nd year WR out of Baylor.  With new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, the Cowboys are expected to be pass-happy.  And looking at their defense last year (which again will be without Sean Lee), they might have to be pass-happy if they are to stay in games.   Dez Bryant will get most of the attention from opposing defenses, which should allow for more looks for Williams.

And do we think Dez will get 160 targets again?  Probably not.  I think Williams will get some of those looks now, and he should get well over 100 targets in that offense.  It just feels like the perfect storm for a breakout year for Terrance Williams.  I just hope everyone else isn't thinking the same thing...

I also considered: Kendall Wright
Why he didn't make the team: Another former Baylor Bear, Wright seems primed for that 3rd year WR breakout season.  He had 140 targets in 2013, and he turned that into over 1000 yards receiving...but he only had 2 TDs.  Granted, if he can find the endzone more often this season, he could find himself in that next tier of fantasy WRs.  But that tier is nearly top-10 territory, and I'm not sure I trust Jake Locker enough to help one of his receivers enter that fantasy realm.

WR: Rueben Randle

Hakeem Nicks had at least 100 targets in all of his seasons with the Giants except for his rookie year.  Hakeem Nicks is now with the Indianapolis Colts.  Meanwhile, Rueben Randle still managed 80 targets last year in his sophomore season, and he's now expected to line up opposite Victor Cruz in two-wide sets in 2014.  I'm sure New York will run plenty of three-wide formations as well, but if Randle is the #2 WR then he'll be in those too.  I expect him to slide into the role Nicks played, and rookie Odell Beckham will back-fill Rueben's old slot.  All of that should mean a huge boost in fantasy value for the 3rd year wide receiver, and I like him to easily crack the top-40 WRs this year.

I also considered: Marvin Jones
Why he didn't make the team: While Randle was barely a top-50 WR in 2013, Jones was actually inside the top-25.  A big part of that was his 4-TD performance against the Jets in Week 8, but he also ended up with 10 total TDs on the season.  The problem with me saying he'll take it to the next level is that I'm not sure he'll break the top-20 WRs this year.  I don't even know if he'll break the top-40.  I think he'll probably do the latter, but he's still a young WR who hasn't shown a ton of consistency yet.  I'm not ready to say he'll make an even bigger leap in his third year in the league.

TE: Kyle Rudolph

Ladarius Green is the obvious choice here, and it's the one you'll hear most from fantasy football writers in the months of July and August.  But I'm going in a different direction...

I'm going with the tight end who was on my list of "Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft" in 2013.  Funny what a difference a year can make because now I'm saying he's ready for the next level.  Rudolph dropped 15 pounds in the offseason and has been working with Larry Fitzgerald's trainer on his receiving skills.  He also has Norv Turner in town calling the plays now, and that's the real story here.  In fact, for a good read on just what Norv can do for tight ends, check out this article over at CBS Sports.

If you don't want to read yet another article, then I'll summarize it for you with one line from it:
"In six of the last seven seasons, Turner's primary tight end has finished as a top-seven Fantasy TE."

Currently I have Rudolph ranked as my #8 TE, and now I'm reconsidering.  I feel like he might need to be right up there in Greg Olsen's territory.  We saw what Jordan Cameron did last year in Norv's offense, and Kyle Rudolph is in a contract year and should be playing his butt off for a new one.

I also considered: Zach Ertz
Why he didn't make the team: You'll hear his name a lot in the next several weeks too, but I think he might still be a year away from a huge season.  Everyone is talking up Ertz, but the Eagles still have Brent Celek under contract through 2016.  I'm sure Philly will find a way to run more two-tight end sets, but I worry about drafting a guy like Ertz, Eifert, Ebron, or even a Ladarius Green.  They all still have solid veterans on the depth chart with them.  Kyle Rudolph?  Not so much...

No defense or kicker on this squad.  Sorry folks.  Position players only.  Hope you enjoyed it!

Cheers,
Bart