It's that time of year again for training camps, mock drafts...and my first feature article (woohoo!). After looking at early rankings from ESPN, Yahoo, and others, I always find that I have several players ranked much lower than the “experts”. So I like to start my string of preseason articles with this list of players who I most likely won't end up with in my fantasy drafts this year. That isn't to say it'll be impossible...just unlikely. If it turns out that everyone else also wants to stay away from Percy Havin (maybe his hip or migraines act up in August?), and he slips way down to the later rounds, then maybe I end up with him after all. But I'm comparing my rankings with the expert preseason rankings as of right now, and Percy is just one of many who I'm not big on in 2014. But more on that in a minute...
If you read this article last year, you'll recall some hits and some big whiffs. While I wasn't touching a tight end like Jermaine Gresham (who now had competition from Tyler Eifert), I also stayed away from guys like Josh Gordon due to his off-field issues. Of course we all know that Gordon set the league on fire, but seeing how his offseason has gone after that, you can understand why I was shying away from him. I guess I was just a year ahead of myself with that one.
You may (or may not) also remember that I didn't want to pay a high price tag for rookie RBs like Montee Ball or Le'Veon Bell. While Bell had a great year for the Steelers, Ball was in the shadow of Knowshon all season. Well that's not the case anymore, and you won't find either on this list for 2014 because both are top fantasy RB options (at least based on my preseason ranks).
But what about this year's rookie RBs? I feel like a lot of the experts are ranking this crop of backs fairly low. Maybe some of that is because it's early and we don't know who is going to win training camp battles, but some of it could be due to perceived opportunity or actual talent (or lack thereof). That being said, I have guys like Tre Mason and Carlos Hyde both ranked well outside of my top-100, but a lot of the experts do too. I also have rookie WRs like Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins ranked just inside my top-100, but so do most experts. So I'm having a hard time saying that I won't end up with a rookie (or even two) this year. Maybe this is the season that I end up drafting some youth. Who knows? It all depends on how other people value these guys. But for now, I'm not featuring the rookies in this list.
Let's start with a guy who has been on my fantasy squad for what feels like forever, and let's go from there. Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments!
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| You're an enigma, Josh Gordon. |
You may (or may not) also remember that I didn't want to pay a high price tag for rookie RBs like Montee Ball or Le'Veon Bell. While Bell had a great year for the Steelers, Ball was in the shadow of Knowshon all season. Well that's not the case anymore, and you won't find either on this list for 2014 because both are top fantasy RB options (at least based on my preseason ranks).
But what about this year's rookie RBs? I feel like a lot of the experts are ranking this crop of backs fairly low. Maybe some of that is because it's early and we don't know who is going to win training camp battles, but some of it could be due to perceived opportunity or actual talent (or lack thereof). That being said, I have guys like Tre Mason and Carlos Hyde both ranked well outside of my top-100, but a lot of the experts do too. I also have rookie WRs like Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins ranked just inside my top-100, but so do most experts. So I'm having a hard time saying that I won't end up with a rookie (or even two) this year. Maybe this is the season that I end up drafting some youth. Who knows? It all depends on how other people value these guys. But for now, I'm not featuring the rookies in this list.
Let's start with a guy who has been on my fantasy squad for what feels like forever, and let's go from there. Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments!
Ryan Mathews
Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. You fool me...can't get fooled again.
I'm pretty sure I've been a Ryan Mathews owner every year he's been in the league, and it's been pretty frustrating to say the least. Sure he's had some good years, but he's also had some terrible ones. I believe last year I got fed up with him about halfway through the season and traded him for Ray Rice. That didn't work out too well because Mathews had one hell of a 2nd half to his 2013 season. But who could see that coming with his track record?
I'd be watching a game earlier in the season in which I just needed a handful of fantasy points from him to win a weekly matchup, and he'd get benched for Ronnie Brown like the entire 4th quarter (in a close game!). Little Danny Woodhead had a solid season last year too, and the Chargers have also added Donald Brown to the mix. The timeshare kills him. I just don't see Mathews as a workhorse running back, and that's the way the experts appear to be ranking him.
I'd much rather draft a guy like Toby Gerhart or Rashad Jennings over Mathews, and I'll be reflecting that in my next rankings update. Sure, those guys are not as proven. But they also don't have a record of a stellar season followed up by a turd of one. When it comes down to it on draft day and I'm sitting there staring at Ryan Mathews or anyone else, I'll probably go with my gut and throw the rankings out the window anyway. I'm most likely just staying away from Mathews altogether in 2014 based on where he'll be going in drafts.
I'd be watching a game earlier in the season in which I just needed a handful of fantasy points from him to win a weekly matchup, and he'd get benched for Ronnie Brown like the entire 4th quarter (in a close game!). Little Danny Woodhead had a solid season last year too, and the Chargers have also added Donald Brown to the mix. The timeshare kills him. I just don't see Mathews as a workhorse running back, and that's the way the experts appear to be ranking him.
I'd much rather draft a guy like Toby Gerhart or Rashad Jennings over Mathews, and I'll be reflecting that in my next rankings update. Sure, those guys are not as proven. But they also don't have a record of a stellar season followed up by a turd of one. When it comes down to it on draft day and I'm sitting there staring at Ryan Mathews or anyone else, I'll probably go with my gut and throw the rankings out the window anyway. I'm most likely just staying away from Mathews altogether in 2014 based on where he'll be going in drafts.
Fred Jackson
How much longer before Father Time catches up with Fred? I thought it would be last year, but it wasn't. At age 32, the veteran out of Coe College played in all 16 games and had arguably his best season yet. But in each of the previous two seasons, he had played just 10 games. He's effective when healthy, but I just think that'll catch up to him now at age 33. I think Spiller is primed for a bounce-back season, and the Bills also traded for Bryce Brown in the offseason. On top of that, it's reported the Bills are hopeful that Brown could grow into a lead back for them. This makes for a crowded backfield in Buffalo, and I think the writing is on the wall for Fred Jackson. I currently have him ranked in the 70s, but I could see him falling outside of my top-100 in the next month or so.
Jay Cutler
I feel like every year he gets ranked near the top-10 preseason fantasy QBs, and every year it's the same story. He doesn't play a full season due to some sort of injury, and he's just flat out mediocre! Right now I have him as my #15 QB, and I'm sure a lot of people will have him around #10. I don't see him as a QB1 option, so I can't imagine he'll find his way onto my fantasy squad. Yahoo currently has him at #11 ahead of guys like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, and Andy Behrens even has Cutler ranked at #8! I think at least a couple of people in my drafts will also think that highly of Cutler. But not me. It'll be another year that I won't have Mr. Pouty Face on any of my fantasy teams.
David Wilson or Jermichael Finley
No Way. Not my player. Not my problem.
I was a Jermichael Finley owner last year, and I felt bad for the guy when he got lit up and was done for the season. But I also don't think he's coming back. I'm pretty worried the same could be said for David Wilson as well. I think the Giants are thinking that too because they got Rashad Jennings in the offseason, re-signed Peyton Hillis, and they drafted Andre Williams out of Boston College. That tells me they're prepared for life after David Wilson. I just hope Wilson is prepared for life after football because neck injuries are scary. All of that being said, ESPN has David Wilson ranked as a top-40 RB and Finley as a top-25 TE (even though the latter isn't even on a roster as of this writing). Yahoo is taking a more conservative approach with these two, and so am I. Even if they show signs of health in training camp, I'm not sure I'll be confident enough to even rank them, much left draft them.
I was a Jermichael Finley owner last year, and I felt bad for the guy when he got lit up and was done for the season. But I also don't think he's coming back. I'm pretty worried the same could be said for David Wilson as well. I think the Giants are thinking that too because they got Rashad Jennings in the offseason, re-signed Peyton Hillis, and they drafted Andre Williams out of Boston College. That tells me they're prepared for life after David Wilson. I just hope Wilson is prepared for life after football because neck injuries are scary. All of that being said, ESPN has David Wilson ranked as a top-40 RB and Finley as a top-25 TE (even though the latter isn't even on a roster as of this writing). Yahoo is taking a more conservative approach with these two, and so am I. Even if they show signs of health in training camp, I'm not sure I'll be confident enough to even rank them, much left draft them.
Percy Harvin
Speaking of health issues, here's a guy who has only played 16 games once in his 5 year career. However, I will say that while he's never eclipsed the 1000-yard receiving mark, he did come close to double-digit touchdowns in each of his first 3 (relatively healthy) seasons with the Vikings. But 2011 seems like ages ago to me, and I just can't bring myself to rank Percy much higher than a guy like Michael Floyd or TY Hilton. For now I have him ranked as my #22 wide receiver. Meanwhile, Yahoo has him at #19 & ESPN #20. And of course there are plenty of people who will have him well inside their top-20 WRs, but I'll let them take the risk and maybe get the high reward. I don't think I want to get burned by Harvin.
Reggie Wayne
I almost started to talk about Hakeem Nicks here, but he's going much later in drafts. I think it's possible I end up with Nicks because he could get lost in the later rounds. But Reggie Wayne is going much higher than I have him currently ranked (as my #38 WR), and I might even move him down further depending on how he looks in training camp. Wayne is coming off a torn ACL, and while he has been cleared for practice, the Colts kept him out of OTAs. Probably a good idea for a guy who will be turning 36 years old in November, but that's exactly what scares me about Wayne's 2014 potential. I think I'd much rather reach for Hilton a couple of rounds earlier or Nicks a couple of rounds later than draft Reggie where he's going. For that reason, I don't think he'll end up on any of my squads this year.
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| I just would like to know if you know what a 'plethora' is... |
Ladarius Green OR Antonio Gates
I'm probably staying away from both because I don't know what's going to happen here. The same could be said for Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in Indy, who only add to the plethora of receivers they have up there (as I mentioned with Hilton/Wayne/Nicks above). As for Ladarius Green, he's getting ranked inside some top-10s (TE lists). But as long as Gates is there too, I can't see it. I don't think I'll be drafting either unless one gets hurt in the preseason or something like that...
I'm looking at you Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka! Here's the deal. Both of these guys will be good fantasy kickers, but neither will be on my fantasy roster this year. I usually don't pay much attention to bye weeks, but when it comes to kickers and defenses, I make an exception. Week 4 is way too early to be forced to make a decision on waiving a kicker or a rookie receiver with potential. And if you draft Prater or Hauschka, that's exactly what you could be faced with. Unless your league settings allow plenty of roster spots (mine doesn't), I'd suggest getting a kicker who has a bye week of 8 or later. That way, you aren't waiving your kicker in Week 4. Or worse yet, waiving a guy like Lance Dunbar only to find out that DeMarco Murray blows out his knee against the Saints on Sunday Night Football. You don't want that on your conscience, do you? It could ruin the rest of your fantasy season! Be smart, people. Don't draft a kicker with an early bye week. You'll thank me later.
Oh, and if you're reading this and you're in my league? Feel free to disregard, uh, all of this...
Oh, and if you're reading this and you're in my league? Feel free to disregard, uh, all of this...
Cheers,
Bart
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