Wednesday, October 11, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings

Image result for deshaun watson texansI was patting myself on the back after I picked up Deshaun Watson off the waiver wire in Week 4, started him, and finished with the most team points in my league that week.  Fast forward to Week 5 when Watson finished as the #1 fantasy QB for the second week in a row...and he was on my BENCH!  I lost my matchup by 4 points, and I don't have to tell you that starting Jameis Winston instead cost me the win.

But these are the lineup decisions we make on a weekly basis for our little fantasy teams.  Sometimes they work out, and sometimes they don't.  I'm going to plug Watson back in for Jameis this week, and we'll see how it goes.  The matchup seems better, but so was Tampa versus New England last week (except it wasn't). 

As for my rankings, let's get to 'em!

BYE: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Seattle

QBs
1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees
3.Aaron Rodgers              
4.Deshaun Watson
5.Cam Newton   
6.Matt Ryan
7.Kirk Cousins 
8.Carson Palmer
9.Alex Smith
10.Jameis Winston 
11.Philip Rivers
12.Carson Wentz 
13.Matthew Stafford 
14.Jacoby Brissett
15.Trevor Siemian

Sorry to disappoint, but I couldn't make it five weeks in a row where the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB.  Of course that means I was actually RIGHT about this pick last week when I was down on Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED).  He was facing a Bengal defense giving up the third fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs and an average of 1 passing TD/game.  Cincy only gave up one passing TD in this game too, and Tyrod had just one rush for 3 yards.  He ended up outside of the top-20 in a week with only 14 games (28 starting QBs).

I was high on Eli Manning (ESPN #14, ME #7), but I need a mulligan here.  The guy lost ALL THREE of his starting WRs to injury in Week 5 but still finished as a top-15 QB!  He had multiple touchdown passes for the third week in a row (like I predicted), so I'm not putting this in the "L" column.

This week I'm not sure Eli will even get positive yards at Denver, so he's not in my top-15.  I also didn't rank Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota, as I'm not expecting either to be healthy enough to play.  It's possible one or both will suit up, but we saw what happened with Sam Bradford on Monday night.  He aggravated his injury and didn't even make it to halftime.  Carr and Mariota probably have stronger bodies than Bradford, but I think both would still be risky plays this week (and that's IF they even play).

Image result for jacoby brissett coltsI'm high on: Jacoby Brissett (ESPN #19, ME #14)
He had a rough Week 4 in Seattle, but Brissett averaged nearly 22 fantasy points/game in Weeks 3 and 5 against weaker Ds (Browns & 49ers).  This week he'll face another weak pass defense on Monday night, as the Titans are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  I think Jacoby and T.Y. will have another big game together, and you could do worse for a bye week fill in.

I'm down on: Matthew Stafford (ESPN #6, ME #13) 
Stafford had a hot start to the season, but he's cooled off the last few weeks.  He only has 3 passing TDs in his last 3 games combined, and he got a little banged up against Carolina last week.  His opponent on Sunday is New Orleans, who started the year off giving up a ton of passing yards & TDs to Sam Bradford and Tom Brady in Weeks 1 & 2.  But Weeks 3 & 4 were a different story, when they basically shut down Cam Newton and Jay Cutler.  The Saints are coming off their bye and have had extra time to game plan for the Lions.  I think Stafford could (somewhat surprisingly) struggle in New Orleans.

RBs
1.Leonard Fournette  
2.Kareem Hunt  
3.Todd Gurley 
4.Le'Veon Bell 
5.Devonta Freeman 
6.Melvin Gordon
7.C.J. Anderson
8.Jordan Howard
9.Lamar Miller  
10.Jay Ajayi 
11.DeMarco Murray 
12.Doug Martin 
13.Carlos Hyde
14.Aaron Jones
15.Ameer Abdullah 
16.Javorius Allen
17.Christian McCaffery 
18.Duke Johnson
19.Marshawn Lynch 
20.Mark Ingram 
21.Mike Gillislee
22.Tevin Coleman 
23.Alvin Kamara
24.Elijah McGuire
25.Jerrick McKinnon
26.LeGarrette Blount 
27.Chris Thompson    
28.Frank GoreFrank Gore 
29.Jonathan Stewart 
30.Isaiah Crowell 
31.Wayne Gallman
32.Alex Collins
33.Samaje Perine 
34.James White  
35.Tarik Cohen  
36.Andre Ellington 
37.Marlon Mack
38.Adrian Peterson
39.Jamaal Charles
40.Latavius Murray
 
Last week I was down on Marshawn Lynch (ESPN #19, ME #31) because he didn't even have double-digit rushing attempts in either of his last two games.  Well, he did have 12 carries but only managed 53 total yards from scrimmage.  I did leave a caveat to say maybe Lynch salvages his day with a 1 yard touchdown run, and he basically did just that with a 3 yard plunge to finish with double digit fantasy points for just the second time this season.  He's moving back up my RB list this week, but I still can't put him in RB1 territory.

I was high on Elijah McGuire (ESPN #52, ME #34), who actually led the Jets backfield with 11 carries after Powell left with an injury.  However, he only managed 20 rushing yards and added just 2 catches for 10 yards.  He still didn't finish outside of the top-50 where ESPN ranked him, but he wasn't a decent FLEX option against Cleveland like I thought he might be.  He got some work in though, and maybe I was just a week early on him.  If you picked him up off the waiver wire last week, he could be a decent FLEX play this week if he's the only healthy Jet RB.  For real this time...

I'm high on: Aaron Jones (ESPN #38, ME #14)
Sure, I'm assuming Ty Montgomery is still out this week (and maybe the ESPN experts aren't).  But even if Montgomery plays, I'd still rank Aaron Jones in my top-30 or so.  He played too well last week to put the genie back in the bottle.  If Montgomery misses another week, I think Jones will be a borderline RB1.  If Montgomery plays, I think Jones is still FLEX-worthy. 

I'm down on: Mark Ingram (ESPN #12, ME #20)
Image result for mark ingram alvin kamara
I feel like I'm down on Ingram versus the ESPN experts every week, but I need to call this out yet again.  Adrian Peterson was dealt to the Cardinals this week, and I guess the experts thought that meant Ingram would instantly be a top-12 RB.  Well, I think this trade has more to do with their faith in Kamara than Ingram, and I think this will become closer to a 50/50 timeshare starting this week.  Keep in mind the opponent too, as the Lions are giving up the 3rd-FEWEST rushing yards/game this year.  Detroit is also one of only two teams to not give up any rushing plays of over 20 yards.  


WRs
1.Antonio Brown   
2.Julio Jones  
3.DeAndre Hopkins
4.Michael Thomas
5.Chris Hogan
6.T.Y. Hilton  
7.Jordy Nelson 
8.Keenan Allen    
9.Brandin Cooks   
10.Kelvin Benjamin
11.Larry Fitzgerald
12.Tyreek Hill   
13.Davante Adams
14.Mike Evans
15.Michael Crabtree 
16.Golden Tate 
17.Stefon Diggs
18.DeVante Parker
19.Emmanuel Sanders
20.Pierre Garcon 
21.Devin Funchess
22.DeSean Jackson
23.Demaryius Thomas 
24.Jarvis Landry
25.Terrelle Pryor 
26.Alshon Jeffery
27.Amari Cooper
28.Adam Thielen
29.Will Fuller V   
30.Randall Cobb 
31.Tyrell Williams
32.Mike Wallace  
33.Martavis Bryant
34.Sterling Shepard
35.Danny Amendola 
36.Marvin Jones 
37.Nelson Agholor
38.John Brown
39.Willie Snead
40.Jeremy Maclin

I nailed both of my WR picks versus the ESPN experts last week.  I was high on Chris Hogan (ESPN #17, ME #8) who had 74 yards and a TD on his way to a top-12 finish.  With guys like Nelson Agholor and Cole Beasley finishing ahead of him in Week 5 (neither of whom any experts ranked highly), I'll chalk this up in the "W" column.  Hogan led all Patriot WRs in targets for the second week in a row, and he now has 5 touchdowns in his last 4 games.  He's in my top-5 this week.

I was down on Sammy Watkins (ESPN #27, ME NOT RANKED), and I even told you I'd be hesitant to rank him in the next month.  He's facing about the toughest stretch of shutdown corners in the league, and I don't think I'll be ranking him for a while.  He had ZERO catches for ZERO yards in Week 5. 

Image result for kelvin benjaminI'm high on: Kelvin Benjamin (ESPN #24, ME #10)
By the way, I'm a little surprised that no ESPN analysts ranked Nelson Agholor in their top-50 this week.  The guy is a top-20 fantasy WR so far this season and has 3 TDs through 5 games.  He's a nice dart throw for tomorrow night's game if you're looking for a FLEX play and/or a reason to watch the game.  But a guy who I think will be a WR1 in that game is Kelvin Benjamin.  He has double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two contests, and tomorrow night he faces a Philly defense giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs this season.  Feels like a recipe for success to me!

I'm down on: Rishard Matthews (ESPN #26, ME #NOT RANKED)
Mariota typically peppers this guy with targets (and hits him).  But Matt Cassell?  Not so much.  Matthews has less than 5 fantasy points in each of his last two games (which is a game and a half with Cassell at QB).  Assuming Mariota sits on Monday night, I'd stay away from Titan receivers, and that includes Rishard Matthews.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 
5.Evan Engram 
6.Cameron Brate
7.Kyle Rudolph
8.Hunter Henry 
9.Ed Dickson
10.Jordan Reed 
11.Zach Miller
12.George Kittle

I wasn't really down on anyone versus the ESPN guys last week, but that's pretty typical.  However, I gave you someone I liked a lot versus the experts, and I bested them for the second week in a row.  In Week 4, it was Evan Engram (ESPN #12, ME #7), and the experts made their adjustments the following week accordingly.  Last week it was Cameron Brate (ESPN #14, ME #5), who caught a touchdown for the third week in a row and finished as a top-5 fantasy TE.  This week, I feel like ESPN has caught up and appropriately ranked both Engram and Brate!

Speaking of this week, I'm not ranking Jared Cook or Delanie Walker because as I've mentioned, I'm assuming both of their QBs will miss another week.  If either QB plays, then I'd rank their TE in the top-12.  I am ranking Gronk and Kelce though, as I'm expecting both to play.  Keep an eye on Kelce, as he'll need to get through the concussion protocol in order to suit up on Sunday. 

I'm high on: George Kittle (ESPN #21, ME #12)
Image result for george kittle 49ersI'm also 5 spots higher on Austin Sefarian-Jenkins than the ESPN experts, but I thought I'd give you a longer shot this week in case your waiver wire is thin.  Kittle was pretty quiet until the 4th quarter last week, but he made a big impact in that final series of regulation against the Colts.  He scored the first touchdown of his rookie campaign, and I think it's very possible he scores against my Redskins on Sunday.  Washington has allowed opposing tight ends to lead their teams in receiving yards in ALL FOUR of their games this year.  George Kittle could end up with a huge game this week, but it'll definitely take a leap of faith!

I'm down on: Jordan Reed (ESPN #4, ME #10)
So in that same game, I have to say I'm down on Reed versus the experts.  He just hasn't gotten anything going this year, and he's been dealing with various injuries.  I hope he breaks out against the Niners, but I'd have a hard time starting him until he at least has a game where he can get like...5 fantasy points (which he hasn't done yet this season).  Also, the 49ers are giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs this year, so there's that too...

DEF
1.Broncos
2.Ravens
3.Falcons   
4.Jaguars 
5.Texans
6.Redskins 
7.Panthers
8.Patriots
9.Chiefs  
10.Rams  

Last week I was down on the Carolina Panthers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED), who hadn't forced a turnover since the opening weekend.  Well, they actually got a fumble recovery in this game to go with their 6 sacks, but they gave up a ton of points and didn't finish as a top-12 fantasy defense in my league. 

As for the team I was high on, I was surprised that none of the experts liked the Miami Dolphins (ESPN #22, ME #11).  Mariota was clearly not going to play, so it was Matt Cassell and company traveling to South Beach for Miami's home opener.  The Dolphins held the Titans to just 10 points and scored a defensive TD on their way to finishing as the 2nd-best fantasy defense in Week 5.  This week, the Titans face the Colts on Monday night.  It sounds like Mariota could return, but I wouldn't count on it.  This would make Indy's defense startable for me if Matt Cassell is the QB again, but I won't rank them since things are still very much up in the air as of tonight.  The same could be said for the Chargers, who may be facing Derek Carr or EJ Manuel.  If it's the latter, they'd be stream-worthy this week too.

My defense rankings are essentially the same as ESPN's this week, and I only felt good about ranking 10 for you.  If you've paid attention to matchups, hopefully you were able to pick up the Falcons or Redskins, who were widely available on the waiver wire earlier this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 6!  
(Except you, Andy...)

Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings

Another week in the NFL meant more big injuries.  Dalvin Cook's torn ACL was probably the biggest loss in Week 4, but Chris Carson also looks like he's done for the season due to a broken leg.  Derek Carr left the game with a back injury, and he'll at least miss two or three games.  With an injury like "broken back", I'm thinking he could even be out through his Week 10 bye, which would likely be devastating for Oakland's season.

Image result for cam newtonSpeaking of the bye weeks, here they come!

Four teams are off in Week 5, including my Redskins.  And with the byes starting, some of these injuries could start taking a toll on your fantasy teams.  Since there are fewer games this week, my lists are also getting shorter.  It's Week 5, people!  If you're down there in the 40-50 range looking for a FLEX play, you have problems.  If you are in a tough spot, hopefully you can find someone in my rankings who just might be on the waiver wire in your league. 

Let's get to it!

BYE: Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, Washington

QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers 
2.Tom Brady 
3.Dak Prescott                
4.Russell Wilson 
5.Jameis Winston   
6.Carson Wentz 
7.Eli Manning  
8.Deshaun Watson 
9.Matthew Stafford 
10.Carson Palmer 
11.Cam Newton
12.Philip Rivers 
13.Alex Smith 
14.Ben Roethlisberger
15.Andy Dalton

If you're playing along at home, it's now FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW that the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 QB!  Last week it was Cam Newton (ESPN #17, ME NOT RANKED) who had been absolutely terrible to start the season.  What'd he do in New England?  How about 4 total touchdowns in a shocking road win?!  Unreal.  As for Trevor Siemian, he didn't bounce back after a rough week in Buffalo (ESPN #16, ME #9).  He followed that up with a poor performance against a weak Raider secondary and nearly finished outside of the top-20.  Hopefully I can do better with my QB picks here in Week 5...

I'm high on: Eli Manning (ESPN #14, ME #7)
What are they going to do?  Run the ball?!?  Well, if they could run against anyone it'd probably be this Chargers team, who is giving up the second most rushing yards per game.  But I'm going to take a wild guess and say Eli will continue to throw the ball 40+ times and have multiple touchdown passes for the third week in a row.


Image result for tyrod taylorI'm down on: Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) 
Can I make it 5 weeks in a row where the QB I'm down on versus the ESPN experts ends up as a top-5 fantasy QB?  Time will tell, but Tyrod will have to do it against a Bengal defense that is giving up the third fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs and an average of 1 passing TD/game.  I only ranked 15 QBs this week because it just didn't feel right ranking guys like Josh McCown and Jacoby Brissett, but I actually had both of them ahead of Tyrod when I was narrowing down my list.  Taylor is definitely someone who has a high floor due to his rushing yards, but I don't see him as a QB1 this week.  Losing Jordan Matthews will hurt him, and I can't imagine he'll even throw the ball more than 20-25 times.

RBs
1.Le'Veon Bell 
2.Ezekiel Elliott 
3.Kareem Hunt  
4.Todd Gurley  
5.Leonard Fournette 
6.LeSean McCoy 
7.Carlos Hyde 
8.Jay Ajayi
9.Melvin Gordon
10.Jordan Howard  
11.Bilal Powell 
12.Lamar Miller   
13.Frank Gore 
14.DeMarco Murray 
15.Joe Mixon 
16.Ameer Abdullah 
17.Mike Gillislee  
18.Doug Martin
19.LeGarrette Blount   
20.Latavius Murray
21.Duke Johnson 
22.Christian McCaffery 
23.Isaiah Crowell  
24.Ty Montgomery
25.Tarik Cohen
26.Jonathan Stewart 
27.Javorius Allen
28.Andre Ellington  
29.Wendell Smallwood
30.Wayne Gallman
31.Marshawn Lynch 
32.Chris Johnson 
33.James White   
34.Elijah McGuire
35.Alex Collins
36.Eddie Lacy 
37.Giovani Bernard 
38.Derrick Henry  
39.Thomas Rawls
40.Jacquizz Rodgers
 
Last week I was high on Derrick Henry (ESPN #42, ME #30), who proceeded to have his worst game of the year.  The Titans couldn't get anything going on the ground against the Texans (aside from Mariota's rushing TDs), and when the QB went down in the 3rd quarter, Tennessee's offense did absolutely nothing.  This obviously wasn't a great call, but I did say that Henry and DeMarco are virtually in a 50/50 split.  So ranking Murray inside the top-20 and Henry outside of the top-40 didn't make sense to me, and I stand by that (at least for now).  The two basically split carries on Sunday, and neither produced.

Anyway, I was down on Wendell Smallwood (ESPN #31, ME #40), and I was wrong there too.  Well, sort of.  I said all three of Philly's RBs would get touches against the Chargers, and I actually liked Blount more than either of the other two this week.  Blount outscored Smallwood (though both put up top-15 numbers), and Corey Clement had the same number of rushes as Smallwood.  So I was right about this being a full blown committee, and I was right to be higher on Blount.  I'm still not going crazy ranking Wendell Smallwood with this kind of usage, but I could see Blount and Smallwood both having value again this week.  However, I still say Blount ends up with more fantasy points, and I have him ranked 10 spots higher than Smallwood.

I'm high on: Elijah McGuire (ESPN #52, ME #34)
Image result for elijah mcguire jetsThis is assuming Matt Forte is still out due to turf toe (which I feel like is usually a multiple week deal), but McGuire looked good last week against the Jags.  And I know that last part about it being against the Jags doesn't help my argument, but this week the Jets get to face he Browns!  Everyone likes Bilal Powell to have a good game in this one, but I'm also looking for the rookie to be a good FLEX play.  If Forte is out for this game, scoop up McGuire off waivers and throw him in your lineup!
I'm down on: Marshawn Lynch (ESPN #19, ME #31)
Maybe this is the game he finally breaks out, but I wouldn't be counting on it...and that's exactly what ESPN is doing by ranking him in their top-20.  Least Mode doesn't even have double-digit rushing attempts in either of his last two games, and EJ Manuel will be trying to move the ball down the field against Baltimore this week (NOT Derek Carr).  Maybe Lynch salvages his day with a 1 yard touchdown run, but I don't see him as a top-20 RB this week. 

WRs
1.Jordy Nelson 
2.Mike Evans  
3.Odell Beckham, Jr.   
4.A.J. Green 
5.Stefon Diggs
6.DeAndre Hopkins 
7.Dez Bryant  
8.Chris Hogan     
9.Larry Fitzgerald  
10.Antonio Brown 
11.Keenan Allen
12.DeVante Parker  
13.Tyreek Hill  
14.Doug Baldwin 
15.Brandin Cooks 
16.T.Y. Hilton 
17.Pierre Garcon 
18.Golden Tate
19.Jarvis Landry  
20.Randall Cobb  
21.Kelvin Benjamin 
22.DeSean Jackson
23.Adam Thielen 
24.Davante Adams 
25.Jaron Brown 
26.Martavis Bryant 
27.Alshon Jeffery 
28.Amari Cooper 
29.Tyrell Williams 
30.Rishard Matthews 
31.Devin Funchess 
32.Michael Crabtree  
33.Sterling Shepard 
34.Marqise Lee  
35.Danny Amendola 
36.Robby Anderson
37.Will Fuller
38.Mike Wallace    
39.Paul Richardson
40.Jeremy Maclin

After getting 15 targets through the first two games, Kenny Stills (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #37) received only 3 looks from Cutler against a Saints team that was terrible against the deep ball.  I didn't watch this game (thank goodness), but I'm surprised Stills didn't get more looks, especially considering the Dolphins lost 20-0.  Why were they not trying to throw deep in this game...at least toward the end?!?

Anyway, I was down on Pierre Garcon (ESPN #23, ME #41), who was facing Patrick Peterson.  That dude shuts down whoever he's covering, and this week was no different.  Garcon ended up outside of the top-50 fantasy WRs in Week 4, and if Peterson covers Alshon this week, I'd be a little worried if I owned him...

Image result for chris hoganI'm high on: Chris Hogan (ESPN #17, ME #8)
Yes, I ranked him ahead of Antonio Brown.  Deal with it.
The guy has 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and he's facing a Buccaneer defense tomorrow that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year.  With more targets than any other Patriot WR last week, I had to pencil him in for a top-10 finish on Thursday Night Football.


I'm down on: Sammy Watkins (ESPN #27, ME NOT RANKED)
This guy is about to face a tough stretch of shutdown corners, and it starts this week with Richard Sherman.  After that he'll face Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson before hitting his bye week.  When he's back in Week 9, his reward will be getting smothered by Janoris Jenkins.  The window to trade Watkins was tiny and it was right after he blew up in Week 3.  Now I wouldn't want any part of him this week or any coming up on the schedule. 

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Travis Kelce
3.Zach Ertz
4.Charles Clay
5.Cameron Brate 
6.Evan Engram
7.Delanie Walker 
8.Jimmy Graham
9.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins  
10.Kyle Rudolph
11.Hunter Henry 
12.Jared Cook

I wasn't really down on anyone versus the ESPN experts last week, but I gave you someone I liked a lot in Evan Engram (ESPN #12, ME #7).  Through Week 3, Engram had the 11th most fantasy points and 6th most targets among all tight ends.  He drew ELEVEN targets against the Bucs and finished as a top-15 fantasy TE in Week 4. He obviously didn't finish near #7 where I ranked him, but I'll still count that as a win.  And here's why...

Image result for cameron brate touchdownThe only "rankable" tight ends who finished ahead of him last week were: Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Brate, Clay, and Hunter Henry.  So I'm saying he sort of finished 7th (right where I ranked him).  He's now tied for 2nd-most targets among all TEs and is 7th in fantasy points.  It looks like the ESPN dudes took notice because they ranked Engram at #7 this week (just like I did).

I'm not too down on anyone again this week, but I do want to give you someone to look for tomorrow night because I'm high on Cameron Brate (ESPN #14, ME #5).  He's Jameis Winston's go-to guy in the red zone, and they've connected for a score in each of the last two games.  The Patriots are giving up top-5 fantasy points to opposing TEs so far this season, and I think that'll happen again tomorrow night.


DEF
1.Steelers
2.Vikings  
3.Eagles
4.Ravens
5.Lions 
6.Chiefs
7.Bills
8.Seahawks   
9.Bengals 
10.Jets  
11.Dolphins
12.Giants

I was high on the Lions last week (ESPN #19, ME #10), knowing Case Keenum couldn't possibly have good back-to-back games.  It turns out I was right, as Detroit finished as a top-10 unit and is still the #1 defense in fantasy.  I'm moving them up to my top-5 this week, as this is a squad that seems to be great at forcing turnovers.

I was down on the Texans (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) because they were facing a Tennessee team that had given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses through 3 weeks.  I said I thought the Titans would take care of the ball and put up at least 30 on Houston, and it looked like that'd be the case until Mariota went down early in the 3rd quarter.  After that, all bets were off.  The Texans D dominated the second half and got a pick-6 off Matt Cassell on their way to a top-5 finish.

Image result for mariota pop gifI'm high on: Miami Dolphins (ESPN #22, ME #11)
Speaking of Matt Cassell, I'm assuming he'll be leading the Titan offense again since they signed Brandon Weeden this week.  If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, they tell me that Mariota won't be playing in Miami this Sunday, and we all saw what the Texans did to a Mariota-less Tennessee squad.  The Dolphins haven't given up more than 20 points in any of their 3 games this season, and I think they'll keep that streak going as long as Mariota is sidelined.  With Hurricane Irma ruining their Week 1 home opener and last week's "home game" being in London, this week is finally Miami's home opener.  I think the crowd will be rowdy, and I expect this defense to get after the Fightin' Matt Cassells.

I'm down on: Carolina Panthers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED) 
The Panthers started the season only giving up 3 points in each of their first two games, but those games were against the 49ers and Bills.  They then went on to give up 34 points to the Saints and 30 to the Patriots.  Granted, those are both solid offenses, but so is Detroit.  I think the Lions will put up a lot of points against a Panthers defense that hasn't forced a turnover since the opening weekend.

Good luck to everyone in Week 5!  
(Except you, Billy...)

Cheers,
Bart