That song was my jam back in high school. I remember requesting it on K92 and then hearing myself on the radio for the first time (which, to quote John Mulaney, is a very old-fashioned sentence).
So why the throwback to Mase, Biggie, and whatever Sean Combs was calling himself that month? Well, during my research last week, I came across
THIS on the interwebs. Basically, it has every contract for every player on every NFL team. As I started to read it, I became obsessed. I couldn't stop. I had to look at all of these contracts, and some of them blew my mind.
For instance...
Julius Thomas is playing on his rookie contract, so obviously he's not getting paid the big bucks yet. But did you realize that the #2 tight end for the Broncos, Jacob Tamme, is making MILLIONS more than him? I sure didn't. Did you know that many kickers in the league make $2-3 million...PER YEAR?!?
There are many other little nuggets on those lists, but I'm not going to talk about them all. However, I am going to discuss a guy (or maybe two) on each NFL team that I'm not drafting this season. [Buckle up because this is going to be a long one.] Last year I did an article entitled "Entire Positions I'm Not Drafting (On ALL 32 Teams)", but I'm doing something a little different with it this year and I'm calling guys out! And I'm not so much calling out these
players, but rather the fantasy experts who are ranking them inside their top-150 to top-200.
You see, I'm not ranking any of these guys below, and I'll tell you why. In many cases, I'm going to reference contracts (hence the link to rotoworld above). In other cases, it may be obvious. I mean, most of them are backups anyway, but some of them are backup backups...yet a lot of experts are still ranking them!
Anyway, let's get to it.
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Dwyer
Back in March, the Cardinals signed Dwyer to a 1-year contract worth $795,000. And while that's more money than Stepfan Taylor will be making in any of the years of his rookie contract, it's still pretty low for a RB in the NFL. Bruce Arians wanted a guy he knew could operate in his system, but I don't see him as a backup with fantasy value (just insurance). When you consider Arizona also signed Ted Ginn back in March to a contract that included over $5 million guaranteed, it kind of puts Dwyer into perspective. And are you thinking about taking Ginn in your fantasy draft? Exactly.
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| Devonta Freeman: Hard Knocks star, future NFL star...? |
Atlanta Falcons: Jacquizz Rodgers
Hard Knocks started last night, and got me even more excited for the upcoming NFL season. It also highlighted a guy I like around pick 100, and that's Devonta Freeman. I think the Falcons are starting fresh with the rookie out of FSU, as they signed him to a very similar contract to that of Jacquizz (who is making nearly $1.4 million this season but also in the last year of his rookie contract). I think this is his last year in a Falcons uniform, and Freeman should be the guy you target in your fantasy drafts as a backup to SJax.
Baltimore Ravens: Owen Daniels
Some of the experts are ranking Daniels like he's either a decent #1 TE on a bad team or a solid #2 TE in a high-powered offense. Owen Daniels is neither of those things. The Ravens signed him to a 1-year contract this offseason, and it breaks down to $1 million in salary and another $1 million of incentives. So he definitely has some money to play for yet, but I just don't see him as being a huge part of this offense with Dennis Pitta back. Not to mention, Baltimore drafted Crockett Gillmore (yes, that's his real name), and they're paying him nearly $3 million over the next 4 years. So they definitely believe in that top-100 draft pick of theirs. Daniels (like Dwyer above) is mainly insurance, and reports out of the Ravens training camp aren't positive so far for Daniels either.
Buffalo Bills: Mike Williams
This dude is getting P.A.I.D.!!! Or should I say "overpaid". The Bills acquired Williams this offseason, but it was the Bucs who signed him to the big extension in 2013. I'm not sure of the details on how they got him, but he'll be buried at least behind Watkins and Woods on the depth chart (if not further). I'm not super confident in taking either of those guys, so I definitely don't have Mike Williams on my radar. I'm not biting on the fact that he started in the Hall of Fame game. I'll pass on Williams.
Carolina Panthers: Mike Tolbert
I think Jonathan Stewart is ready to get back to a 15 or 16 game season. Yes, he's currently nursing a hamstring injury, but he said he feels healthier than he has in like 3 years! Meanwhile, Tolbert will continue to rely solely on his TD-vulturing ability to be fantasy-relevant. Even if Stewart misses time, Tolbert won't cut into DeAngelo's carries. Personally, I don't like relying on a guy scoring touchdowns to provide fantasy points to my squad.
Chicago Bears: Ka'Deem Carey
There's not much to talk about here. Fantasy experts are ranking Carey based on him being a handcuff to Forte, but that's all he is. I won't have a top pick in my league to land Forte, so I won't be considering Carey in my draft. Even if I did, I think I'd consider other options inside my top-168 who have more potential for getting touches on their own without relying on a star to get injured.
Cincinnati Bengals: Benjarvis Green-Ellis
I almost went Tyler Eifert here, but Jermaine Gresham is a free agent at the end of this season, so the Bengals could let him go once he plays out his contract. I think Eifert is the better long-term TE, so I don't want to totally dismiss him this season. And that's exactly why I'm not ranking The Law Firm in 2014. He'll be playing out the last season of his 3-year contract, and I think he'll be gone after that (if not sooner). Gio will become the man in Cincy, and rookie Jeremy Hill is expected to get some work too. I think that leaves Green-Ellis on the outside looking in as a third stringer.
Cleveland Browns: Nate Burleson or Miles Austin
Josh Gordon is too obvious here, and a lot depends on his suspension (which is being appealed). Looking at the other Browns receivers, I don't want either of these guys who are both on 1-year contracts. Bottom line: I don't want any Browns WR, but if I was forced to take one, it'd probably be Andrew Hawkins.
Dallas Cowboys: Ryan Williams
He signed a 1-year deal in the offseason worth hundreds of thousands less than even Jonathan Dwyer's deal. We all know health is an issue here, so why would he even be worth a risk at the end of a fantasy draft? Lance Dunbar is the handcuff you want for DeMarco Murray, not Williams (and it's not even close). I think we could be looking at another former Hokie running back who could be at an early end to his NFL career.
Denver Broncos: Matt Prater
No contract talk here: just a Week 4 bye for a kicker. Sorry, but I'm not wasting a roster spot on Prater this year. See my previous articles for further explanation on this draft strategy.
Detroit Lions: Eric Ebron or Brandon Pettigrew
I'm not ranking either, but I'd definitely be more likely to draft Ebron based on potential. The fact is, the Lions have both TEs under 4-year contracts through the 2017 season (and the club has an option on Ebron for 2018). Both are making multi-millions (guaranteed), and I think both will produce. Oh, but there's also Joseph Fauria still on the roster, who is a 6'7" redzone target as well. I might want a piece of the WRs and RBs in Detroit, but I'm staying away from the crowded tight end situation.
Green Bay Packers: Jarrett Boykin
Most people see the 3rd-year WR out of Virginia Tech as a late round sleeper, even a steal. Not me. I saw him play last year in Baltimore, and while he got plenty of targets, I just wasn't that impressed with him. I think the Packers probably weren't either, and that's why they took THREE WRs in this year's draft. I think this year's 2nd-round pick Davante Adams could give him a run for his money as the 3rd WR after Cobb and Nelson. Boykin is in the last year of his rookie contract, so he'll be playing for a long-term deal. I just don't think he gets it.
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| Boykin got plenty of action last year with injuries to Packer WRs, but I just don't think he's very good... |
Houston Texans: Garrett Graham
Owen Daniels is now out of the picture (in Baltimore, as I mentioned above), but Ryan Griffin is still there. Yeah, the Texans signed Graham to a lucrative 3-year deal back in March. But I think Griffin's talent could still win out in this position battle. Either that, or Bill O'Brien uses both in a lot of two-TE sets like he did in New England. Either way, I don't see Graham as a top-12 TE this season...nowhere near that actually.
Indianapolis Colts: Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener
I'm trying not to have too much tight end talk, but it's becoming inevitable. Both of these guys signed 4-year deals in 2012, so they'll be free agents in 2016 unless Indy signs one to an extension. Which one will that be? Well, I'm sure we'll have to at least wait until next year to find out. I think Dwayne Allen actually has more potential, if healthy. But he missed nearly all of last year due to injury. Fleener didn't look great last year (I had him on my fantasy squad for a while), so I don't really trust him either. In the end, I'm not considering either tight end as a starter on my squad.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Marqise Lee or Allen Robinson
Both of these guys are rookies, so they both just signed 4-year contracts in the last month or so (but I'm not going to talk about their contracts). I'm only interested in what I know about their fantasy value this season, and it isn't much. I'd have a tough time ranking one over the other, so I'm not ranking either. If I were to draft a receiver in Jacksonville, it'd be Cecil Shorts (not one of these rookies).
Kansas City Chiefs: Alex Smith
Smith is in the last year of his contract, and he'll be making at least $7.5 million this season (plus more if he hits certain incentives). That's a lot of money for a QB who threw for over 3000 yards last year for just the second time in his 9-year NFL career. He did hit career highs in 2013 for passing TDs (23) and rushing yards (431), but I think that could very well be his ceiling. I'd much rather draft a guy like Eli Manning (who has had great seasons before) or Johnny Manziel (who has way more potential for fantasy greatness than Alex Smith).
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| Will Tannehill go up, down, or sideways...? |
Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill
This is a tough one, as you saw in my "Guys Ready for the Next Level" article. I think it's very possible that Tannehill continues to improve and has a good season with his new offensive coordinator. I also think it's possible the Dolphins could be looking for a QB in next year's draft (with 2015 being the last year of Tannehill's rookie contract). Like with Alex Smith, some experts have Tannehill ranked in their top-15 QBs. I do not.
Minnesota Vikings: Greg Jennings
In 2013, the Vikings stole Jennings away from their rival and signed him to a 5-year deal worth $45 million. Not much of a "steal" if you ask me. Now turning 31 years old next month, Jennings hasn't played a 16-game season since 2010. The future in Minnesota is Cordarrelle Patterson, not Jennings.
New England Patriots: Aaron Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins
I was a Kenbrell Thompkins owner early last season, but I got lucky and was able to trade him away when his value was probably at its highest. He had a handful of decent games in the first half of the season, but that's about it. Meanwhile, Dobson had a pair of decent games in the second half of 2013. Maybe one of them will improve and become more of a fixture in the offense this year, but I think it could easily be Brandon LaFell (signed to a 3-year, $9 million deal this offseason) or Danny Amendola (who is often injured but who also should be a Patriot through the 2017 season). For that reason, I may rank those veterans and hold off on ranking Dobson or Thompkins this year.
New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram
The 2009 Heisman winner is about to play in the last year of his fully-guaranteed, multi-million dollar, rookie contract. Meanwhile, Khiry Robinson is playing for peanuts (by comparison), is under contract through 2015, and will be a restricted free agent in 2016. The Saints like to keep a crowded backfield, but I have a feeling they let Ingram walk after this season. Pierre Thomas will probably be the top fantasy RB for them this year (the Saints signed him to a 3-year deal back in March). But I think it's Robinson (not Ingram) who is the more interesting option as the #2 RB in New Orleans, and who also has decent keeper potential. Don't pay any attention to Ingram being listed as the #1 RB in the Saints first official depth chart. I think that's totally meaningless...
New York Giants: Odell Beckham
I talked at length about why I wasn't ranking David Wilson, and I was all set to write about him here until it was announced he's retiring due to his neck injuries. It's truly a sad story for a young guy with such promise, but hopefully he'll land on his feet. So I need to talk about another Little Giant, and I'm going with rookie Odell Beckham. And speaking of fully-guaranteed rookie deals, the Giants signed Beckham to a 4-year deal worth over $10 million. That's a big investment. But they also still have Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle ahead of him on the depth chart (for now). If you're in a deep keeper league, Beckham may be interesting. But I think for 2014, I'm investing in Randle over Beckham. And despite liking Eli over guys like Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill, I'm not sure he'll put up big enough numbers to spread the wealth around to 3 or 4 different fantasy WRs.
New York Jets: Michael Vick or Geno Smith
Geno is in just the second year of his 4-year rookie deal, and the Jets signed Vick to just a 1-year contract (I'm guessing as insurance). Whatever the case, I don't want either of these guys! I've seen some experts rank Vick as high as their #18 QB, but why would you want any part of that? No thanks.
Oakland Raiders: Denarius Moore
I'm done with this guy, but apparently some fantasy experts are still hanging on for dear life. The Raiders were busy in the spring, and one of their big signings was James Jones (a 3-year deal worth $10 million). He might be the only Oakland wideout worth selecting in fantasy drafts, but I think Rod Streater could be a late-round pick as well. As for Moore, he gets lost in the shuffle for me. I don't think there are 3 Raider WRs who will produce enough fantasy points this season (or any season anytime soon).
Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Polk
I'm not trying to call out one of my favorite fantasy football writers, but he's forcing my hand here! Matthew Berry currently has Polk ranked at #120 overall. Huh...? You realize LeSean McCoy is the MAN in Philly, and they brought in Darren Sproles (3-year, $10.5 million contract), right? I realize that is a seriously high-powered offense and there's plenty of touches to go around, but I still don't see Polk as a Flex option. I see him as a handcuff to McCoy and that's it.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Lance Moore
Much like Greg Jennings, Moore will be turning 31 soon and hasn't played a 16-game season since 2010. The Steelers signed him to a 2-year deal worth $3 million, and that sounds about right. Lance had 3 or 4 solid seasons with Drew Brees and the Saints, but I don't expect much from him at this point in his career. Apparently some fantasy experts still like him, but I'd much rather put stock in Markus Wheaton or Martavis Bryant (whoever wins that camp battle).
San Diego Chargers: Donald Brown
I get it. The Chargers signed Brown to a 3-year deal this offseason, and they're paying him $4 million guaranteed as part of a $10.5 million contract. But he's not in a fantasy-friendly situation, and he's not the same kind of player as someone like a Darren Sproles. You know who is? Danny Woodhead, who the Chargers just signed to a 3-year deal last month. To me, Brown is expensive insurance for an often-injured Ryan Mathews. If you think that's worth a pick in your fantasy draft, go for it. But as long as Mathews stays healthy, I think Brown has little value (a la Mike Tolbert, touchdown vulture). The only silver lining I could see for Brown is the fact that Mathews is in the last year of his 5-year rookie deal. If San Diego lets him walk in 2015, then Brown's value skyrockets. But personally, I don't see that happening.
Seattle Seahawks: Steven Hauschka
I was all set to say Sidney Rice here, but then the dude went and retired! So I'll have to go with Hauschka, even though it's kind of a cop-out. He's another solid kicker, but he also has a Week 4 bye. I won't be drafting him.
San Francisco 49ers: Stevie Johnson
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| I'm serious about not ranking you, Stevie. |
He's close to making my top-168, but he's still on the outside looking in. Once the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins, I guess they realized they didn't need two big contract WRs on their team in addition to him (Mike Williams being the other). So they dealt Stevie to the Niners for a conditional 2015 pick (4th rounder, maybe 3rd rounder). The thing is, San Fran still has Boldin and Vernon Davis under contract through 2015, and even though Crabtree is a free agent after this season, I have a feeling they'll pay him to stick around long-term. Brandon Lloyd may also come back from the dead and make the squad, and he could even challenge for snaps. I don't think Kaep will spread it around enough to make everyone have fantasy-relevance this season.
St. Louis Rams: Kenny Britt
The Rams signed this perennial fantasy sleeper to a low-cost, 1-year contract that is heavily incentive-based. That tells me they don't have a ton of confidence in the guy, and probably no team did really. And I don't blame them. Britt hasn't played a full season since his rookie year in 2009, and he's struggled to put up numbers since he tore both his ACL and MCL in 2011. Maybe he'll make some magic now that he's reunited with Jeff Fisher, like he did in his 9-TD season in 2010. But I'm not going to count on it with Britt, and I don't think there's much in the Rams listing him as the #1 WR on their first official depth chart. He's not a terrible pick in the last couple of rounds, but I think I'll be staying away from him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
The Bucs used their 2nd round pick on the 6'5" tight end out of Washington, but they also had already signed Brandon Myers to a 2-year deal worth upwards of $4+ million (with half of that guaranteed). Not to mention they still have Tim Wright playing on his rookie contract, and he showed flashes of competency last season. I'm not saying both of those guys will be ahead of ASJ on the depth chart, but they're there. I wouldn't be surprised to see Myers with the best fantasy season of those three.
Tennessee Titans: Nate Washington
OK. So not many people are ranking Nate Washington too highly as it is, but some have him in their top-200. Honestly, he's not even on my radar. The one good thing you can say about him is that he is consistent. The problem is, he's consistently mediocre. He hasn't missed a game in his career due to injury or anything else, but nearly all of his seasons are about the same. Sure, he had one year where he broke 1000 yards receiving and had 7 TDs. But that was in 2011, and that was the best season of his career. I think it'll always be the best season of his career, and he's most likely in line for another year with 600 yards and 3 or 4 TDs. Kendall Wright is a superstar in the making, and Justin Hunter has the potential to be a true #2 WR in that offense. I think at age 30, Washington's days are numbered as he plays out the last year of the 6-year contract he signed in 2009.
Washington Redskins: Andre Roberts
Assuming a healthy Jordan Reed, I don't think there are enough balls to go around when you consider Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson at wideout (that's assuming they're both healthy too, of course). I'm looking forward to seeing if Roberts can help improve our special teams, but I'm not expecting him to make a huge impact on the offensive side of the ball. I'm sure the Redskins are hoping for bigger things, considering they signed him to a 4-year, $16 million deal. But I've seen this with plenty of free agents before, and I'm not buying it (especially from a fantasy perspective).
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| But I have nothing but love for you, Andre. This is a picture from training camp in RVA! |
That's all 32 teams? Whew! If you made it this far, congratulations. I'll have some updated rankings for you after we see some preseason action tomorrow night. So hopefully the rankings will be out on Friday!
Cheers,
Bart
No one knows who this year's Zac Stacy will be, but I thought it'd be kind of cool to throw a guess out there. I'll give you a few more names as to who is this year's "Player X", but take these with a grain of salt. If you start moving all of these guys up your own cheat sheets, I'm sure you'll be in for plenty of disappointment. Sure, I might even get a couple of these right...but I'll probably get most of them wrong. 
