Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Week 8 Rankings

Injuries are a big part of the game.

A lot of fantasy owners know that all to well after Week 7.  Last week I traded away my backup tight end (Martellus Bennett) for Steve Smith because I needed depth at WR going into the bye weeks.  I still had Jermichael Finley, so I thought I'd be all set.  The Packers had already had their bye, and with Randall Cobb being sidelined for a while, the situation couldn't have been better.  Well, Finley had a great game before taking another huge hit, which ultimately landed him in the hospital.  I didn't realize how bad it was until the next day, which made me feel horrible because all I was thinking about on Sunday was how I'd have to scramble to make another trade involving a tight end or roll the dice on the waiver wire.  I'm pretty sure my fantasy team will survive, and there are many more important things than football, much less fantasy football.  Apparently after the hit he took in Week 3 against the Bengals (in which he suffered a concussion), Jermichael's 5-year-old son sad "Daddy, I don't want you to play football anymore."  I don't care if you have children or not.  That tugs at the old heartstrings.  According to Finley's twitter, he is doing better, but there could be a long road ahead with his type of injury.  Hopefully he'll be OK and can get back onto the field at some point, if that's what's best for him and his family.

Foster has plenty of time to stretch the hammy on his bye.
That being said, it's appropriate that last week I talked at length about making trades, especially with the bye-heavy Weeks 8 & 9 now upon us.  On top of that, several key players left games in Week 7 with injuries (in addition to Finley).  Sam Bradford tore his ACL and Jay Cutler may have a severe groin issue.  Running backs Arian Foster and Doug Martin both left their games early with different injuries, and Martin's may be season-ending.  That adds to guys like Steven Jackson and DeMarco Murray who already have been missing games, not to mention Brandon Jacobs who I was high on last week but didn't play due to a hamstring issue.  Wide receivers weren't immune to the injury bug either, as Reggie Wayne was placed on the IR this week with a torn ACL.

It's a rough sport, and you need some depth on your fantasy squad.  These next couple of weeks, these rankings might prove crucial.  You may find yourself digging especially deep into the RB or WR lists, and hopefully I can find some hidden gems with decent matchups for you.  Speaking of which, one more quick thing before I get into the rankings.  Last week I suggested that if you wanted to post a comment below, I'd try to get back to you before kickoff on Sunday.  Clearly no one did that, but I did get a couple of text messages.  I'm typically watching soccer on Sunday mornings, which is immediately followed by Fantasy Football Now on ESPN.  So if you have questions, feel free to shoot them my way.  And if you'd rather use twitter, then  and I'll get a response back to you that way.  Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Lucky for me, this blogging thing is free...

OK, let's do the rankings!

BYES: Ravens, Bears, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Titans

QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Drew Brees
3.Aaron Rodgers
4.Matthew Stafford
5.RGIII
6.Tony Romo
7.Cam Newton
8.Michael Vick
9.Russell Wilson
10.Tom Brady
11.Matt Ryan
12.Colin Kaepernick
13.Eli Manning
14.Andy Dalton
15.Ben Roethlisberger
16.Carson Palmer
17.Terrelle Pryor
18.Ryan Tannehill
19.Alex Smith
20.Geno Smith


I kept the faith in Andrew Luck last week.  I had him as a top-5 play on Sunday night against the Broncos, and not only did he get the win against Peyton Manning and company, but he finished with the most fantasy points of all QBs in Week 7.  Manning turned in his usual top-5 performance himself, but little brother Eli looked pretty bad on Monday night.  He would've looked even worse if it wasn't by comparison.  Josh Freeman wasn't even close on over half of his passes.  I'm still not ranking Freeman this week, even though he has a nice matchup at home against Green Bay.  I guess I'll keep Eli relatively high, though I'll be lowering Nicks in my WR rankings.  To me, that guy looks like he's checked out of New York.  I have a feeling all of the rumors of him being involved in a trade might come to fruition any day now.

Rodgers and Ryan continued to put up top-10 fantasy numbers even though they were both without multiple top WRs.  I was also wrong about RGIII, as he had a top-5 fantasy day against the Bears.  He nearly had 300 yards passing, and he had 84 yards on the ground.  I like the way he's running the ball now, and I've moved him up considerably this week as the Redskins travel to Denver.  Teams are having a tough time running the ball against the Broncos, but quarterbacks don't seem to be having any problems against their secondary.  The guy I was high on last week was Jay Cutler, but he went out pretty early in that game with the groin injury (as I mentioned above).  It's hard to say what could have been if he didn't have that injury, so instead, I'll talk about a guy I added in my Friday update and proceeded to hype up in his matchup against the Patriots.  Geno Smith kept to his pattern of good game, bad game, good game,...and he had himself a near top-10 day against New England.  The Jets also won that game, which I also predicted.  Boom!  Geno earned his spot at the bottom of my rankings again this week, though I am concerned that he will continue to follow his pattern and once again have a bad game.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Vick's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack...........
Enough patting myself on the back about Geno because I also liked whoever started for the Eagles as a top-10 play last week, and that didn't happen.  The Cowboys had been giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and this game was supposed to be high scoring.  Well, it wasn't.  Romo and Foles were both held to below average numbers.  In fact, Foles had a horrible game before getting knocked out at the end of the 3rd quarter with a concussion.  Michael Vick should be back in there this week as the Eagles host the G-Men at home.  If he's back to 100% health, I think he'll play with a chip on his shoulder to prove he's  the starting QB, as well as it being a division game.
RBs
1.Marshawn Lynch
2.Jamaal Charles
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Frank Gore
5.Adrian Peterson
6.Knowshon Moreno
7.Eddie Lacy
8.Reggie Bush
9.Fred Jackson
10.Darren McFadden
11.Le'Veon Bell
12.Stevan Ridley
13.Alfred Morris
14.Darren Sproles
15.Giovani Bernard 
16.Joseph Randle
17.Zac Stacy
18.Maurice Jones-Drew
19.Jacquizz Rodgers
20.Mike James
21.Pierre Thomas
22.Lamar Miller
23.Chris Ivory
24.DeAngelo Williams
25.Andre Ellington
26.Peyton Hillis
27.Roy Helu, Jr.
28.CJ Spiller
29.Brandon Bolden
30.Willis McGahee
31.Rashard Mendenhall
32.Kendall Hunter
33.Bilal Powell
34.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
35.Daniel Thomas
36.Mike Tolbert
37.Ronnie Hillman
38.Joique Bell
39.Jason Snelling
40.Philip Tanner


They're not booing, folks.  They're Heluuuuuuuing!
I'm not sure how deep anyone was digging into my rankings last week, but rounding out the top-40 in the Friday update was Roy Helu, Jr.  I mentioned that he got 10 touches in Week 6 against Dallas (even with a healthy Alfred Morris playing). Well, Helu got 11 more carries in Week 7, and he took three of them to the house.  Of course I had a ton of guys ranked ahead of him, but it looks like he's becoming a bigger part of this offense every week.  I still view Morris as a top-10 or 15 RB, but Helu is creeping up the rankings...

I already mentioned that I was high on Brandon Jacobs last week, but he didn't suit up on Monday night.  So there's not much to say there.  I will say that for this week, I'm ranking Hillis (not Jacobs)...at least for now.  I was also really high on Danny Woodhead though (ESPN #30, ME #18) as he faced Jacksonville.  I actually had him ranked just ahead of Ryan Mathews, and both had double-digit fantasy numbers (with Mathews slightly higher).  I was down on a LOT of running backs last week.  First up was Stevan Ridley (ESPN #17, ME #25), who broke free for a 17-yard TD and landed himself right around where the ESPN experts had him.  I've actually moved him up considerably this week, as I'm starting to buy back into him.  

The biggest name I was down on in Week 7 was Trent Richardson (ESPN #14, ME #21), who was playing against that top-rated Denver run defense.  I said TRich would finish without double-digit fantasy points for the 3rd week in a row, and he finished outside of the top-40 altogether.  I also talked about Joseph Randle (ESPN #22, ME #30), who I thought was a nice flex play if you were desperate, but who I also thought wouldn't do a lot with his opportunity.  Well, the experts got it right, as he finished right at #22.  But Philip Tanner vultured a TD from him, and I still don't like him very much while Murray is sidelined.  Of course I say that, but you could do worse with all of those bye weeks, as I have him inside my top-20 this week.

It sounds like Steven Jackson and DeMarco Murray both could play this week, but I'm leaving them off for now.  Hopefully I'll know more by Friday, but you might have to keep an eye on their situations up until game time this week.  Atlanta could be without Roddy White for a second straight week as well, as he's been pretty much absent from my WR all year...

WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.Dez Bryant
3.Jordy Nelson
4.Victor Cruz
5.Demaryius Thomas
6.DeSean Jackson
7.AJ Green
8.Wes Welker
9.Vincent Jackson
10.Eric Decker
11.Larry Fitzgerald
12.Pierre Garcon
13.Justin Blackmon
14.Antonio Brown
15.Jarrett Boykin
16.Rueben Randle
17.Marques Colston
18.Mike Wallace
19.Steve Smith
20.Anquan Boldin
21.Josh Gordon
22.Cecil Shorts
23.Terrance Williams
24.Denarius Moore
25.Hakeem Nicks
26.Harry Douglas
27.Michael Floyd
28.Julian Edelman
29.Golden Tate
30.Stevie Johnson
31.Brian Hartline
32.Jeremy Kerley
33.Kris Durham
34.Brandon LaFell
35.Kenbrell Thompkins
36.Greg Jennings
37.Mike Williams
38.Emmanuel Sanders
39.Dwayne Bowe
40.Jerome Simpson

So maybe the BIG-3 is a misnomer
Last week I said that until Megatron showed that he was back to full health, he's a low-end WR1 for me. Well, he's showed that he's back to full health, finishing as the #1 fantasy WR in Week 7.  Just behind him was Vincent Jackson, who had 10 catches on 22 targets!  He also had a pair of touchdowns.  Most of the other usual suspects were near the top, including the Big Three targets for Peyton Manning, all of whom are in my top-10 this week.  But I want to talk about the guys I was high and low on versus the experts last week.

I mentioned that while I though Jordy Nelson would still put up decent numbers against Joe Haden, I liked Jarrett Boykin to step up with James Jones ruled out.  I had Boykin all the way up at #32 in my Friday update, while the experts conservatively kept him at #39.  The rookie out of Virginia Tech made the most of his opportunity, putting up over 100 yards and a touchdown.  Now that Jermichael Finley is sidelined indefinitely, I look for him to continue to be an integral part of that offense (even when James Jones returns).  Right now I have him as a top-20 play, but if there are indications that Jones will be back by my Friday update, I may be lowering him a bit.

I was high on a bunch of other guys last week too, all 
to varying degrees based on where I had them ranked.  Young receivers Justin Blackmon, Keenan Allen, and Brandon LaFell all had very average days.  Keenan Allen missed a large amount of snaps due to some sort of injury, but I think Blackmon's numbers were down slightly due to Cecil Shorts toughing out his injury.  LaFell has been hit or miss, and I mentioned that he was a risky flex play, but I'm doubling down on him this week.  I think with Steve Smith likely on Revis Island, LaFell will get a touchdown on Thursday night.  Another guy who I was high on who keeps finding the endzone is Reuben Randle (ESPN #37, ME #28), who now has 4 TDs in his last 3 games.  I mentioned earlier that I'd be lowering Hakeem Nicks, and I actually have Randle ahead of him in this week's rankings.

Finally, I'd like to remind everyone that I was down on Greg Jennings (ESPN #28, ME #36).  Some of the experts included Josh Freeman in their top-20 QBs for Week 8, so I guess the expectation was that he was ready and that would transfer to Jennings.  Well I didn't rank Freeman, as I thought it was pretty clear that he had very little time to learn the offense before getting his first start in the purple and gold.  And in addition to that fact, Jennings still  only has had one good game this season.  His other 5 games have now resulted in single-digit fantasy points.  I'm not sure why the experts continue to rank him like it's pre-2012, but it's time to lower him in the rankings a bit, fellas.  He did lead the Viking receivers in targets, so he's still in my top-40 (especially with all of the byes this week), but I hope you have better options because Josh Freeman looked rough on Monday night!

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Tony Gonzalez
4.Vernon Davis
5.Julius Thomas
6.Jason Witten
7.Jordan Reed
8.Jordan Cameron
9.Heath Miller
10.Charles Clay
11.Greg Olsen
12.Jeff Cumberland

Nearly a huge day for Gronk in his return, but still a solid performance.
Gronk had an instant impact in his return, with over 100 yards receiving and a near-touchdown.  With Jimmy Graham still possibly not back to full health, I'm putting Rob all the way up at the top spot.  With the bye weeks, there are a couple of new additions to the list: Jordan Reed and Jeff Cumberland.  Reed had a huge game against the Bears on Sunday, with Fred Davis as a healthy scratch.  I think it's possible that Davis gets left behind altogether, and Jordan has a good shot to put up double-digit fantasy numbers against Denver's weak pass defense in what should be a high-scoring affair.  With Jermichael Finley out, I've had to scour the waiver wire for a fill-in, and for this week, I like Cumberland.  He's been Geno Smith's safety valve, and while he may not put up double-digit fantasy numbers, he's nearly a sure thing for at least a handful of points.

With all of the WR injuries for Atlanta, I thought Tony Gonzalez would have gotten more looks against Tampa Bay.  And he probably would have if it weren't for all of the double teaming he saw from the Bucs.  He should have a little more room to operate against an Arizona team who is giving up a lot more fantasy points to tight ends this season.  As for the tight end I was high on last week, Charles Clay (ESPN #12, ME #9) only caught one pass, but it was for a TD!  Meanwhile, I was down on Antonio Gates (ESPN #2, ME #7), who was playing against a Jacksonville defense who had allowed a TD to opposing tight ends in 4 straight games.  Guess who didn't score against the Jags?  Gates!  He has quieted down in his last three contests now with the emergence of Keenan Allen, and I also mentioned that I liked the RBs to punch it in when they were near the goal line, which is exactly what happened!

DEF
1.Chiefs
2.Seahawks
3.49ers
4.Saints
5.Bengals
6.Packers
7.Panthers
8.Patriots
9.Steelers
10.Cardinals
11.Raiders
12.Jets

Kansas City failed to get a defensive touchdown against a Houston offense that had been giving them away on a weekly basis.  Case Keenum actually managed the game pretty well for the Texans, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the starter moving forward for them.  The Chiefs finished just outside of the top-10, but I still like them as an elite fantasy defense this week at home against the Browns.  In fact, I have them ranked at my top spot yet again.

I had my Bengals defense ranked at the bottom of my top-12, and they struggled at Detroit.  Luckily I sat them and picked up the Panthers, who had given up the second fewest points to opposing offenses on average and was a top-5 fantasy defense (even though they'd yet to record a defensive TD).  Well, Carolina is still both of those things, and they got that defensive TD on the first drive of the day for the Rams.  They went on to pound Sam Bradford and company and ended up as the #1 fantasy defense in Week 6.  I like them as a top-10 play again in a shortened week as they travel to Tampa Bay, who has a rookie QB and should be without Doug Martin.  A tough decision for me since I now have Carolina and Cincy, but I think I'll have to go with the Bengals, who have put up a ton of defensive fantasy points in their home games this season.  Another guy in my league has Kansas City and San Fran, which I think is an even tougher choice to make.  Both of us should  be OK no matter who we pick, but I guess we'll find out on Sunday.

If your defense plays the Jags, it's tough to sit em...
The Chargers were a nice plug-and-play defense last week, as they played Jacksonville.  San Francisco gets the Jags this week, so they're obviously near the top of the list.  Last week I was somewhat high on the Lions (ESPN #22, ME #11), but that was a swing and a miss.  I mentioned that in Detroit's 2 home games, their defense put up top-10 fantasy numbers.  Well not last week against the Bengals, as Andy Dalton had another stellar performance.  I won't be ranking them this week as the Cowboys come to town.  On the other hand, I was down on the Vikings (ESPN #11, ME not ranked).  I think everyone was playing the matchup because the Giants were 0-6 and giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.  But I liked the G-Men to put up some points and get their first win of the year (which happened).  I thought Minnesota might put up 7-10 fantasy points (which also happened, based on my league's scoring).

We'll see how many of them I can get right this week, and I'll give some comparisons in my Friday update once the expert rankings come out later today!

Cheers,
Bart

Friday, October 18, 2013

Week 7 Rankings: Friday Update

Sorry, but there's no storytime in this Friday update, folks.  I want to get right down to business.

First, let's talk about last night's game, which pretty much followed the script...

QBs: Carson Palmer looked like a JV quarterback, and Russell Wilson put up a top-10 fantasy performance.  I will say that if Lynch had been awarded that first TD, Wilson would've had one less TD and had another good (not great) fantasy day.  But that's not how it went down, so good for him and his owners.

Bruce, take off the fake glasses, dude...
RBs: Speaking of Lynch, he also put up top-10 numbers last night.  And like I said, he sort of got robbed of another score which would've put him over 20 fantasy points for the evening.  On the other side of the ball, Arizona's backs didn't do much.  Yes, Mendenhall got a touchdown after the Cardinals got great field position from a Russell Wilson fumble.  But you're not counting on him on a weekly basis at this point (at least I hope not!).  I do like what I saw from Andre Ellington though.  I know what you're thinking: "But he had a horrible fantasy night.  What could you have seen that you LIKED?!?"  I'll tell you.  See, I was playing against him in my money league, so I was paying attention.  The production wasn't there last night, but that's due to Seattle's defense.  Carson Palmer was targeting Ellington in the passing game...in the red zone.  Palmer threw a couple passes his way that were damn close to being touchdowns.  Mark my words, when they play Atlanta next week, he'll haul in one of those.  Luckily for me this week, he had a hard time converting much of anything on his 5 targets.  He also only had 3 rushes, but Arizona had to abandon the run in the second half.  He had 7 carries in each of the previous weeks, and if Bruce Arians is smart, that number should get up into the double digits moving forward.

WRs: Let's start with the Cardinals: I had Fitzgerald ranked at #23 and Michael Floyd at #35.  Floyd had his standard 7-8 point game, but Fitz was shutout for the most part.  I think his hamstring issue might've been slowing him down a little (that, and the Seahawk secondary).  Hopefully you sat him for this tough matchup, but if you didn't have better options, that's a hard pill to swallow.  Plus, it's always tough to sit your studs.  As far as Seattle's wideouts, they're still a crapshoot from week to week.  And with Percy Harvin set to return any day now, they'll become even more unpredictable from a fantasy perspective.  My opponent played Golden Tate against me, and I was cheering when his punt return for a would-be-TD got called back for a block in the back penalty.  Kind of makes his dive into the endzone a little silly, doesn't it...?


TEs: You didn't actually start a tight end from one of these teams this week, did you?  Well if you did, congratulations if it was Zach Miller (OK, maybe in a deep league) or Kellen Davis (no way in hell).  Those guys each caught one of Wilson's 3 TD passes.

DEF: I can't get into my rankings update without at least talking about these defenses.  Arizona's D wasn't spectacular, but they did get to the QB and force a pair of fumbles.  They've put up some decent fantasy points against good offenses this season, and their schedule only gets easier (at least until Week 16 & 17).  As for Seattle, they sacked Carson Palmer 7 times and they picked him off twice.  One of those INTs was by Brandon Browner, who would've taken it all the way to the house if it wasn't for that "Turf Monster", as Mike Mayock so eloquently put it.  Needless to say, you're starting the Seahawks every week no matter who they play.  But hopefully you didn't need me to tell you that.  



















K: You thought I was actually going to talk about kickers?  You must be new to the blog...

OK.  Let's get into the Week 7 updated rankings!

(BYES: Saints & Raiders)

QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Tony Romo
3.Jay Cutler
4.Andrew Luck
5.Cam Newton
6.Philip Rivers
7.Aaron Rodgers
8.Matthew Stafford
9.Matt Ryan
10.Nick Foles
11.Tom Brady
12.Eli Manning
13.RGIII
14.Ryan Tannehill
15.Colin Kaepernick
16.Brandon Weeden
17.Andy Dalton
18.Ben Roethlisberger
19.Joe Flacco
20.Geno Smith

I thought of adding Mike Glennon to the bottom of the list this week, but a rookie QB in his first road game?  I thought I'd shy away from that.  Josh Freeman is also enticing to plug in at the #20 spot, but he still needs to learn that offense (not to mention the guys in it).  He has a good matchup with the Giants, but that's another risky pick I'm staying away from.  Instead, I'm going with the rock-solid selection of Geno Smith (ha!).  At first glance, his fantasy numbers look completely inconsistent.  But take another look (from ESPN standard scoring): 14, 3, 24, 7, 21, 4...
Just don't do this on Sunday. OK, Geno...?

Notice anything interesting?  No, it's not a Fibonacci Sequence.  Try again.  He's consistently having a good game, followed by a bad game, followed by a good game, and so on.  And while that Week 2 bad game came against the same Patriots squad he's playing this week, I think things will be different this time around.  First of all, it's a home game.  Wait, I'm not sure that helps.  Jets fans really like to boo.  Well, hopefully he gets off to a good start early so the boo birds stay away.  Secondly, he now has some experience under his belt and he's been working with his receivers for several weeks now.  And finally, New England's defense is not the same as it was in Week 2.  They've since lost Vince Wilfork to a season-ending injury, and now linebacker (and leading tackler) Jerod Mayo is done for the year.  On top of that, their best cornerback Aqib Talib is not expected to play this week due to a hip injury.

Needless to say, I'm going to be lowering the Patriots defense in my rankings below (even though the Jets turn the ball over a ton).  But all of that other stuff I mentioned is just to say that, yeah, I kind of like Geno Smith this week against New England.  In fact, I think the Jets beat em this time around.  But let's talk about a couple of other QBs in a game I'm more interested in.

I'm high on: Jay Cutler (ESPN #9, ME #3)
As usual, my Redskins have been giving up a ton of fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  Last week, they actually held Romo in check, but that was due to special teams more than anything.  Dwayne Harris racked up 222 return yards against Washington, giving Romo short fields to work with.  Hopefully we can do better on kickoffs and punts this week, but I think that'll just mean Cutler will put together some long drives.  I wasn't ranking Jay earlier in the year, but he's on my radar now.  He's had right around 20 fantasy points or more in every game except an average Week 3 game at Pittsburgh, and I think he'll have no problem putting up over 300 yards and 2 or 3 TDs at FedEx Field this Sunday.  At my fantasy draft back in August, my friend and I made a little wager on Cutler.  He said he would be a top-5 fantasy QB this season.  I'm starting to get a little worried...



I'm down on: RGIII (ESPN #8, #13)
Now I don't want to be too pessimistic about my team, but what can I say?  We are 1-4...
Sticking with the Bears/Redskins matchup, I'm actually down on Robert Griffin III in this one.  If you take away all of the garbage time points in the first two games against Philly and Green Bay, RGIII's last three games have been pretty average from a fantasy perspective.  He did look better running the ball against Dallas, but he's still not hitting his receivers on passes he needs to be making.  I think Washington will feed the ball to Thoroughbred Fred, and RGIII will end up with another fantasy day with around 12-15 points.  Of course, I hope I'm wrong on this one...
RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
2.Jamaal Charles
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Matt Forte
5.Arian Foster
6.Knowshon Moreno
7.Frank Gore
8.Alfred Morris
9.Doug Martin
10.Reggie Bush
11.Ray Rice
12.Eddie Lacy
13.Giovani Bernard 
14.Fred Jackson
15.DeAngelo Williams
16.Brandon Jacobs
17.Danny Woodhead
18.Lamar Miller
19.Ryan Mathews
20.Trent Richardson
21.Chris Johnson
22.Maurice Jones-Drew
23.CJ Spiller
24.Stevan Ridley
25.Bilal Powell
26.Le'Veon Bell
27.Jacquizz Rodgers
28.Zac Stacy
29.Joseph Randle
30.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
31. Willis McGahee
32.Jason Snelling
33.Chris Ivory
34.Ben Tate
35.Mike Tolbert
36.Brandon Bolden
37.Chris Ogbonnaya
38.Kendall Hunter
39.Philip Tanner
40.Roy Helu, Jr.

It sounds like Steven Jackson still isn't 100% healthy for the Falcons and most likely won't suit up this Sunday against Tampa Bay.  Likewise, DeMarco Murray is out for the Cowboys, and Lance Dunbar still isn't healthy for Dallas either.  This has me adding Philip Tanner to my rankings, as I'm not completely sold on Joseph Randle (more on that later).  I've also added Kendall Hunter, who has had 3 TDs in his last 4 games for the 49ers.  Rounding out the top-40 is Roy Helu, who got 10 touches in Week 6 against Dallas, despite a healthy Alfred Morris. 


Waiver wire gold...cha-ching!
I'm high on: Brandon Jacobs (ESPN #28, ME #17)
I'm also really high on Danny Woodhead this week (ESPN #30, ME #18) as he faces Jacksonville, arguably the worst defense in the league.  I actually have him ranked ahead of Ryan Mathews, who I'll be starting at my flex position in my money league...but I'd rather talk about Jacobs here.  First of all, let me just say how strange it is to even be talking about Brandon Jacobs right now, much less discussing why I like him so much more than the experts.  I didn't see this coming, and neither did you.  But it's happening, so roll with it.  David Wilson's return may or may not happen this season.  They're now saying he won't need surgery and might be back soon, but I'm not buying it.  Meanwhile, the Giants cut injured Da'Rel Scott and signed former Madden coverboy Peyton Hillis as insurance.  But make no mistake.  After that performance against the Bears last week, Brandon Jacobs is the starting running back.  He'll face a Minnesota defense that isn't much better than the Jags, and he should get 20+ touches and any goal line work.  I'm not sure he'll have another 100 yard day, but I think he'll be close, and I think he'll hit paydirt again too.

I'm down on: a bunch of guys
ESPN is still ranking Joique Bell at #35, and I'm not sure why.  He's even dealing with a rib injury this week!  I've talked about him before though, and I'm tired of it.  I have three other guys I'm down on this week, so I'll talk about them.  First up is Stevan Ridley (ESPN #17, ME #25), who had a nice game last week against New Orleans.  Well I'm not totally buying him again just yet.  The Saints are a bottom-half run defense, but the Jets are #2 behind the Broncos (giving up just over 75 yards/game).  Ridley got 4 fantasy points against Gang Green in Week 2 when the job was his to lose.  Maybe he'll have payback on his mind, but I don't think he gets it.  And with Gronk potentially back this week (maybe for real this time?), Ridley may even lose goal line work due to passes to the big guy.


This was one of Randle's best runs last week?
A big name I'm down on this week for a similar reason is Trent Richardson (ESPN #14, ME #21).  He's playing against that top-rated Denver run defense, who is getting Von Miller back this week.  TRich also still looks like he's learning the offense, and I think Luck has a good day in the air against the Broncos, but Richardson will finish without double-digit fantasy points for the 3rd week in a row.  Finally, I want to mention Joseph Randle (ESPN #22, ME #30).  He's a nice flex play this week if you're in desperation mode, but I can't see ranking him all the way up at #22.  Yes, he has the opportunity this week against Philly, but he had that in the 2nd half against Washington last week.  He rushed for 17 yards on 11 carries (which includes one run for 14 yards!).  He did find the endzone, which made it look like he had a decent day...but he didn't.  I think Philip Tanner will get some burn in this game too, and I think the Cowboys stick to passing more against that horrible Eagles secondary.

WRs
1.Dez Bryant
2.AJ Green
3.Brandon Marshall
4.Victor Cruz
5.Demaryius Thomas
6.DeSean Jackson
7.Justin Blackmon
8.Wes Welker
9.Josh Gordon
10.Calvin Johnson
11.Vincent Jackson
12.Reggie Wayne
13.Jordy Nelson
14.Pierre Garcon
15.Antonio Brown
16.Keenan Allen
17.Eric Decker
18.Torrey Smith
19.Alshon Jeffery
20.T.Y. Hilton
21.Andre Johnson
22.Hakeem Nicks
23.Mike Wallace
24.Steve Smith
25.Anquan Boldin
26.Kenbrell Thompkins
27.Rueben Randle
28.Harry Douglas
29.Julian Edelman
30.Brian Hartline
31.Terrance Williams
32.Jarrett Boykin
33.Brandon LaFell
34.Emmanuel Sanders
35.Greg Jennings
36.Kendall Wright
37.Mike Williams
38.Stevie Johnson
39.Vincent Brown
40.Aaron Dobson

The reports are looking like Stevie Johnson and Mike Williams will both play on Sunday, so while I've added them to my Week 7 rankings, they're still near the bottom.  Cecil Shorts is still in a ton of pain apparently, and I don't see him playing this week.  With a Week 9 bye for the Jags, I wouldn't be surprised to see him rest until Week 10.  Roddy White is still limping around with a hamstring injury, and even if he plays to keep his consecutive game streak alive, I don't see him as a factor and he stays off the list.  It's also looking more and more like James Jones will sit a week out, as he hasn't practiced at all this week.  If he plays, I think he's a top-40 WR, but I wouldn't go crazy on him.  Even slowed by an injury, I think he'd be in line for a lot of looks with Jordy being covered mostly by Joe Haden.  But I'm assuming Jones will be out, which has me moving Jarrett Boykin slightly up my rankings.  

I'm high on: a bunch of guys
Unlike Manti Te'o's girlfriend, Keenan Allen is for real.
Interestingly enough, I was down on a bunch of running backs versus the ESPN experts.  Here I am loving some of these young WRs.  I was surprised to see the ESPN guys so low on Justin Blackmon this week (ESPN #15, ME #7).  Since coming back from suspension, he's gotten over 19 fantasy points/game.  It looks like Cecil Shorts may miss a game or two, so Henne will be throwing to Blackmon every chance he gets.  Another guy I thought might rise a little more is Keenan Allen (ESPN #25, ME #16).  The 3rd round pick out of Cal has quickly become the go-to guy for Philip Rivers.  It reminds me of 2009 when Miles Austin started blowing up for the Cowboys, except he was technically a veteran at that point.  After watching the Colts/Chargers game on Monday night, I think Keenan Allen is here to stay.  I could be wrong here, but I see him going for over 100 yards and a TD for a 3rd week in a row.  Again, the Chargers are playing Jacksonville this week...

Two other young guys I have ranked higher than the experts are Reuben Randle (ESPN #37, ME #28) and Brandon LaFell (ESPN #49, ME #34).  Despite their 0-6 record, I seem to be pretty high on the Giants this week.  I think they'll get their first win against the Vikings, and I think they'll put up plenty of points in doing so.  With his limited targets, Randle is a risky WR3 play.  But he has 3 TDs in his last 2 games, so he's in my top-30.  To a lesser extent, I like LaFell for similar reasons.  He's had 3 TDs in his last 3 games, and I think Cam Newton will keep it rolling this week at home against the Rams.  Again, not the safest bet at a flex position, but you could do worse.

This is what I think about ranking Jennings so highly.
I'm down on: Greg Jennings (ESPN #28, ME #36)
There are several guys who I have ranked 4 or 5 spots lower than the ESPN experts, but I felt like Jennings was worth mentioning here.  The Vikings have announced that Josh Freeman will be their starter against the Giants on Sunday.  Some people see this as an upgrade for Minnesota's WRs, but I'm not so sure (at least not yet).  Freeman has to learn the offense, and what better way to get comfortable than to hand the ball off to AP and let him run all over that Giants defense?  Meanwhile, Jennings has had ONE good game this season!  His other 4 games have resulted in single-digit fantasy points.  What exactly qualifies him to be in the top-30...?

TEs
1.Vernon Davis
2.Tony Gonzalez
3.Julius Thomas
4.Jordan Cameron
5.Jason Witten
6.Jermichael Finley
7.Antonio Gates
8.Martellus Bennett
9.Charles Clay
10.Greg Olsen
11.Heath Miller
12.Kyle Rudolph

With no tight ends in my top-12 from last night's game, there's not much shuffling around here.  But one change that I have made is replacing Garrett Graham at #12 with Kyle Rudolph.  It looks like Schaub will be sidelined for Houston, and TJ Yates is splitting reps with Case Keenum in practice this week.  Add that to the fact that the Chiefs are giving up the fewest points per game to opposing TEs this season, and I needed to reconsider that last spot.  Rudolph is hot or cold, and a lot of his points last week were in garbage time.  But he is going up against the Giants, who have allowed the most fantasy points to TEs when playing at home apparently.  It's a weird stat, but whatever.  He's startable on Monday Night Football in a 12-team league.

I'll believe Gronk's playing when this guy says so...
Wondering why I still haven't ranked Gronk, even though his agent apparently said today that he's cleared by doctors?  Well guess who hasn't cleared him to play on Sunday?  His coach!  I don't trust Drew Rosenhaus as far as I can throw him, so Gronk stays off the list for at least one more week.  Again, if he plays against the Jets on Sunday, I do like him as a top-10 play.  I probably put him somewhere in between Gates and Clay.  Speaking of those two...

I'm high on: Charles Clay (ESPN #12, ME #9)
For whatever reason, the Bills haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends this year.  But they've given up 12 passing touchdowns in 6 games, and the Dolphins have been using Clay in all sorts of positions to get him the ball.  I say this makes him an exception to the rule this week.  I think he continues to ball out and finds the endzone for a 3rd straight game, giving him double-digit fantasy points for the 4th time this season.

I'm down on: Antonio Gates (ESPN #2, ME #7)
Yes, the Jags have allowed a TD to opposing tight ends in 4 straight games.  But Gates has quieted down in his last two contests with the emergence of Keenan Allen.  Also I think they might punch it in with the RBs when they're near the goal line, as I'm high on both Woodhead and Mathews this week.  Call it a hunch, but I just think Gates won't be a top-5 TE this week.  Of course, I've been wrong about Gates before (after all, I drafted the guy last season).

DEF
1.Chiefs
2.Bears
3.49ers
4.Panthers
5.Ravens
6.Chargers
7.Packers
8.Dolphins
9.Titans
10.Patriots
11.Lions
12.Bengals

I'm high on: Lions (ESPN #22, ME #11)
I was pretty high on the Dolphins too (ESPN #16, ME #5), but I've moved Miami down a bit.  A lot of that was based on the assumption that Matt Flynn would start for Buffalo.  Add to that the fact that Miami is at home and coming off a bye week, and you have yourself a nice little recipe for success.  But it looks like Thad Lewis is healthy enough to get another start, and he didn't look that bad last week against a tough Bengals defense.  So let's talk about the team who the Bengals travel to play this week: the Detroit Lions.  Based on my money league's scoring, Detroit's defense is right in the middle, tied for 17th in average fantasy points/game.  But did you know that in their first 6 games, only 2 of them have been at Ford Field?  In those 2 home games, their defense put up top-10 fantasy numbers in those weeks against Minnesota and Chicago.  Now they get a Bengals team that is giving up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and who also is only averaging 18 actual points in their 3 road games this season.  On top of all of that, in talking about the Detroit Lions, I get to post this GIF of Brandon Weeden again!  Enjoy.
GIF via Buzzfeed Sports
Yep.  Still hilarious.

I'm down on: Vikings (ESPN #11, ME not ranked)
I get it.  They're playing the Giants, who are 0-6 and giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year.  But I think the G-Men will actually put up a bunch of points in this one.  If your scoring system dishes out a lot of negative points for your defense giving up 30+ points, just consider that.  If it rewards you more for sacks, fumble recoveries, etc.?  The Giants will probably have you covered there.  I just think Minnesota might put up 7-10 fantasy points, but I don't see them as a top-12 defense this week.

That's it for the Friday update.  Everyone have a great weekend, and good luck in Week 7!

Cheers,
Bart