Saturday, July 28, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings v6

Well it's been about a month since my last rankings update, and training camps are now underway, so I thought I'd get another update before anyone tears another ACL or Achilles during a conditioning drill (sorry, Charger fans). 

There hasn't been a ton of news since my last update, but DeMarco Murray retired, LeSean McCoy has some serious domestic drama/allegations, and Josh Gordon didn't up for the start of training camp.  I can't wait to see that last one unfold on Hard Knocks!

Image result for ezekiel elliottBefore I get to my rankings, I thought it might be interesting to predict who will finish the season in the top-12 at each position.  You might be thinking "Isn't that what you're doing with your rankings?"  Well, sort of...but not quite.  These lists are going to differ slightly from my rankings because I'm throwing in guys who aren't on the radar to finish in the top-12 at their position.  This will provide you some insight into who I think has major upside and who might be prone to being a bust in 2018.

I'm still more or less going to stick by my rankings when it comes to doing my fantasy drafts, and I suggest you do the same.  But there's always a lot of turnover in the top-12 at each position when you look at end of season ranks, so I thought it'd be fun to put some predictions out there and see what turns out to be right when the season ends.  This will also serve as a taste of my big preseason article that I'll get out there in a couple of weeks, and I'll add some notes below each section.

Again, this is just a rough prediction of what the top-12 at each position could look like after the 2018 season (with some bold picks sprinkled in)...

QBs
Tom Brady
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Marcus Mariota
Philip Rivers
Jared Goff
Kirk Cousins
Matt Ryan

You'll notice right away that while I have Rodgers as my #1 QB in my rankings below, I'm not picking him to finish that way at the end of the year.  He certainly could, but it's also very possible he doesn't.  Alex Smith and Carson Wentz were both top-5 fantasy QBs last season, but I think there's a chance that neither is in 2018.  I'm not convinced Wentz will start Week 1, and if he misses a few games, he'll have a hard time cracking the top-12 by the end of the year.  It feels weird to have someone like Drew Brees outside of my top-12, but it's probably going to happen at some point.  Could it be this year?  Sure.  Could he finish in the top-5 this year?  Of course.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott
David Johnson 
Le'Veon Bell
Saquon Barkley
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon 
Alvin Kamara
Derrius Guice
Dalvin Cook
Jay Ajayi 
Kareem Hunt
Sony Michel 

The more I thought about it, the more I wanted to go against the typical Bell/Gurley #1 overall and make Zeke my guy this year.  He's going to get so much work behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  If he plays all 16 games, he has a legit shot at 2000 rushing yards this season.  Yes, really.  As you look at the rest of my list, you'll notice it's an extremely young top-12 with 3 guys from last year's draft class and 3 from this year's.  But hey, there were 4 rookies in the top-15 last year...and there might've been 5 if Dalvin Cook didn't miss nearly the whole season with a knee injury.  I don't see why half of the top-12 RBs couldn't be under the age of 23, do you?  You may also notice that 1/3 of my top-12 includes a running back from each NFC East team.  I mean, other than the Giants, the rest of the teams in the NFC East have really good offensive lines.  And the Giants have Saquon Barkley, sooooo yeah...I think it's a possibility. 

WRs
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Davante Adams
Antonio Brown
T.Y. Hilton
Doug Baldwin
Julio Jones
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Chris Hogan
Randall Cobb
Michael Thomas
Sammy Watkins

Image result for chris hoganI have less than half of last year's top-12 here, so I'm making some bold choices with this list.  But I don't think it's unrealistic to think that Chris Hogan has a big year with the lack of other WR options in New England.  I also think it's very possible that Stefon Diggs has a much better year than Adam Thielen, especially since he's in a contract year.  Remember when Randall Cobb was a top-10 WR in 2014?  That could happen again, right...?  Sammy Watkins actually had 8 touchdowns last year with the Rams on just 70 targets, and 6 of those scores were in the last 8 games of the regular season.  We'll find out soon if Mahomes is any good, but if Watkins stays healthy and gets 100+ targets, I don't see why he couldn't be a top-12 WR.

TEs
Zach Ertz
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Kyle Rudolph
Jordan Reed
Delanie Walker
Travis Kelce
Greg Olsen
Trey Burton
Antonio Gates
Hayden Hurst
Charles Clay

Gronk not the #1 TE?  Kelce outside of the top-5?!?  Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?  The bottom half of my list gets a little wacky too.  I think Antonio Gates will come out of retirement right before the season starts and finish in the top-10.  I also like for Hayden Hurst to be this year's Evan Engram.  Speaking of Engram, you don't see him in this top-12.  I also didn't list everyone's favorite "sleeper" tight end George Kittle.  Well, my big preseason article may help explain those omissions and some of the others as well. 

Until then, let's do the rankings!


1. Ezekiel Elliott: He will get so much work this year. I felt the need to make him my #1 overall.
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. Todd Gurley
4. Alvin Kamara 
5. David Johnson
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Antonio Brown: I know I'd take an RB in the top half of Round 1, so AB down 2 spots.
8. Odell Beckham, Jr.: Up one spot. A healthy OBJ could easily be the #1 fantasy WR. 
9. DeAndre Hopkins
10. Julio Jones
11. Michael Thomas
12. Davante Adams: Moved him up to this WR tier, so 6 RBs and then 6 WRs in Round 1.
13. Rob Gronkowski
14. Leonard Fournette: His injury history concerns me, so he's down a RB tier.
15. Dalvin Cook
16. Kareem Hunt
17. Melvin Gordon
18. Devonta Freeman: Moved him up to this RB tier. As consistent as they come.  
19. Keenan Allen 
20. A.J. Green 
21. T.Y. Hilton: Assuming Luck is 100% healthy, moved Hilton WAY up to this WR tier.  
22. Mike Evans
23. Doug Baldwin 
24. Zach Ertz: With Burton gone, I say Ertz hits 10+ TDs and could be the #1 fantasy TE. Up.
25. Jerick McKinnon  
26. Joe Mixon 
27. Christian McCaffery
28. Derrius Guice: Moved up to this RB tier. Maybe a homer pick. Maybe a right pick. We'll see.
29. Larry Fitzgerald: Virtual guarantee for 100+ targets and 1000 yards. Up.
30. Stefon Diggs: I'm going against the grain and swapping Thielen and Diggs in my rankings.
31. Amari Cooper: Up too. With Crabtree gone, he should get lot of targets (and fantasy points).
32. Adam Thielen
33. Jordan Howard
34. Alex Collins
35. Jay Ajayi 
36. Travis Kelce
37. JuJu Smith-Schuster 
38. Demaryius Thomas: For some reason, I still believe he could return to WR1 territory. Up.
39. Alshon Jeffery: Hasn't had more than 821 receiving yards since 2014. Down a WR tier.
40. Lamar Miller: Foreman may not be ready Week 1. Miller a boring but solid pick. Up. 
41. Rashaad Penny
42. Marshawn Lynch: I get the feeling he scores double digit TDs with Gruden coaching. Up.
43. LeSean McCoy: Remember when Zeke was suspended without being charged? Me too. Down.
44. Ronald Jones: I really like his potential to be a workhorse for the Bucs. Up to this RB tier.
45. Brandin Cooks 
46. Chris Hogan: Up to this WR tier. I think he has a big year, and he won't last much past top-50.
47. Michael Crabtree: He feels like a top-20 WR to me, so he's up slightly.
48. Tyreek Hill
49. Sony Michel
50. Kenyan Drake: Basically had a couple of good games last year. Felt a little high. Down.
51. Derrick Henry: He also has bust potential with Dion Lewis there. Down as well.
52. Mark Ingram
53. Dion Lewis
54. Royce Freeman: Moved him up a RB tier, but not sure he'll be the starter or not. We'll see... 
55. Tevin Coleman
56. Golden Tate 
57. Corey Davis
58. Marvin Jones: Tate is more consistent while Jones has the big games. Lowered Jones a bit.
59. Jarvis Landry
60. Allen Robinson
61. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers and Watson down about 10 spots. I'm waiting on QB again this year.
62. Deshaun Watson
63. Tom Brady: Moved him and Russell up to this QB tier, but all of these QBs are relatively low.
64. Russell Wilson: If I get one of these 4 QBs though, it won't be in the first few rounds.
65. Jimmy Graham: Moved this big TE tier up about 10 spots.
66. Kyle Rudolph 
67. Greg Olsen 
68. Delanie Walker
69. Josh Gordon: In the news which is never good for him. Down a couple of WR tiers. 
70. Devin Funchess: Moved him down here with Shepard/Parker (and now Gordon). 
71. Sterling Shepard: Moved Shepard up to this tier. He's better with OBJ in the lineup.
72. DeVante Parker: He's up to this WR tier too. Finally time to break out...?
73. Marlon Mack
74. Rex Burkhead 
75. Tarik Cohen: Moved him and C.J. Anderson up to this RB tier.
76. C.J. Anderson  
77. Chris Thompson: He fell down to this tier. Guice could be true workhorse.
78. Kerryon Johnson
79. Jamaal Williams: Has a chance to run away with the job with the Jones suspension. Up.
80. Cam Newton
81. Andrew Luck: In his last 3 fully healthy seasons, he's been a top-5 fantasy QB. Up. 
82. Carson Wentz: I have concerns about him being ready for Week 1. Down a QB tier.
83. Drew Brees
84. Evan Engram: Down. I have a feeling he regresses a lot with Saquon there.
85. Pierre Garcon
86. Allen Hurns 
87. Randall Cobb
88. Will Fuller
89. Emmanuel Sanders
90. Kelvin Benjamin
91. Robert Woods
92. Robby Anderson
93. Aaron Jones: Starts the year with a two game suspension, but I'm not lowering him.
94. Nick Chubb
95. Isaiah Crowell: He felt too high. Down a RB tier.
96. Devontae Booker: Up to this RB tier. Don't sleep on him as the the Week 1 starter. 
97. Jordan Reed: Moved him up about 30 spots.  Could be a top-5 TE if healthy.
98. Kirk Cousins: Moved down to this QB tier with Stafford/Rivers.
99. Matthew Stafford 
100. Philip Rivers 
101. Sammy Watkins
102. Julian Edelman
103. Rishard Matthews: In a contract year, and I think Mariota has more TDs this year. Up.
104. Marqise Lee
105. D.J. Moore
106. D'Onta Foreman
107. Frank Gore
108. Matt Breida: Call me crazy, but I think he'll get plenty of touches in a decent offense. Up.
109. Jamison Crowder 
110. Cooper Kupp
111. Kenny Stills 
112. Marquise Goodwin
113. Jordy Nelson: I move him slightly down in every rankings update...
114. Nelson Agholor
115. Josh Doctson 
116. Mike Williams
117. Michael Gallup: Up a WR tier. Could be the #1 WR in Dallas.
118. Bilal Powell 
119. Giovani Bernard
120. Carlos Hyde 
121. Trey Burton
122. Jordan Matthews: Up a WR tier too. He could be useful even beyond the first 4 games.
123. Geronimo Allison: Cobb in a contract year which makes Allison a more attractive keeper. Up.
124. Kenny Golladay: Good keeper potential with Tate in a contract year. Up.
125. Calvin Ridley
126. Cameron Meredith: Down slightly in this WR tier. His health could be an issue Week 1.
127. Chris Carson: What if Penny's NOT the guy? Carson back into top-150.
128. Duke Johnson
129. Kenneth Dixon: Moved him and Clement up. Both should be more involved this year.
130. Corey Clement
131. Nyheim Hines: I think about Indy being down in games and him being involved a lot. Up.
132. Theo Riddick
133. Dez Bryant: Down two more WR tiers as he remains unsigned.
134. Tyler Lockett
135. Paul Richardson
136. Tyrell Williams: He felt a little high, assuming Mike Williams healthy now. Down.
137. Ryan Grant: Let's assume Luck is healthy & Grant is the #2 WR. Up.
138. Spencer Ware
139. Peyton Barber: Down a couple of RB tiers. Starting to feel more like a handcuff.
140. Jared Goff
141. Marcus Mariota
142. George Kittle
143. Charles Clay
144. Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Down a couple of spots in this last TE tier.
145. Chargers DEFENSE
146. Broncos DEFENSE
147. Jaguars DEFENSE
148. Ravens DEFENSE
149. Rams DEFENSE
150. Saints DEFENSE
151. Eagles DEFENSE
152. Vikings DEFENSE
153. Steelers DEFENSE
154. Lions DEFENSE: Removed the Seahawks. Detroit has a good early schedule.
155. Patriots DEFENSE
156. Titans DEFENSE: Replaced the Chiefs with the Titans. TEN@MIA Week 1.

Watch List:

QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: Down to the watch list with Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes: Because to be honest, someone will draft them way higher than I will anyway.
Matt Ryan
Alex Smith
Ben Roethlisberger
Dak Prescott
Blake Bortles
Mitchell Trubisky

RBs
Latavius Murray
Chris Ivory
Jordan Wilkins
Ty Montgomery
Doug Martin
James White
Jeremy Hill
Kalen Ballage
LeGarrette Blount
Ameer Abdullah
Charles Sims
Austin Ekeler
T.J. Yeldon

WRs
John Ross
Mohamed Sanu
Willie Snead
John Brown
Albert Wilson
Ted Ginn
Jaron Brown
Kenny Britt
Chester Rogers
Deon Cain
Chris Godwin
Terrelle Pryor
Quincy Enunwa
Jermaine Kearse
James Washington
Dante Pettis
Courtland Sutton
Christian Kirk
Anthony Miller
Donte Moncrief
Dede Westbrook
Keelan Cole
Keke Coutee: Added to the watch list. If he's the #3 WR, could shine if an injury to Nuke or Fuller.
J'Mon Moore: He could beat out Allison for the #3 WR spot in Green Bay. Added to the list.

TEs
Hayden Hurst
Mike Gesicki
Tyler Eifert
Benjamin Watson
David Njoku
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
O.J. Howard
Cameron Brate
Vance McDonald
Antonio Gates
Ricky Seals-Jones: I know I have too many TEs in my watch list, but what's one more?

Thursday, June 28, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings v5

The last time I updated my rankings, the Capitals were up 3 games to 1 in the Stanley Cup Final.  As you likely know, they got the job done in Game 5 and won the whole thing for the first time in franchise history.  I still kind of can't believe it.  It wasn't until the next day when I realized I haven't really experienced this as a fan before: the team I root for actually won a championship

OK.  So I rooted for Duke basketball in the 90s, and there were a couple of championships I was happy about then.  But this is very different.  I'm an adult now with adult things going on.  I couldn't really care less about Duke basketball anymore, but I'm a fan of the Redskins, Orioles, and the Caps.  Oh, and Tottenham, but that feels secondary compared to American sports.  I live in Mechanicsville, Virginia...not London, England.  But I spend a lot of my time watching those sports teams, mostly on tv, but once or twice a year in person if I can. 

Anyway, I was so excited for all of those guys, but especially Ovi.  The look on his face after the last game was priceless, and there was just so much joy on that ice.  I don't want the feeling to end for those guys.  And as I thought more about it, I realized it's a little strange to feel so happy about the achievements of other grown men - men I don't even know personally.  I didn't do anything but watch them play hockey.  But I've been watching them for years, and so many other Caps fans have shared in those heartbreaking losses and series collapses.  We didn't do anything but cheer them on, but it still feels good now that they've won it.  Congrats, boys!
Image result for julian edelman catch
There haven't been a ton of moves in the NFL since my last update, but that's not stopping me from updating my rankings.  Julian Edelman got hit with a 4 game suspension, so that was big news for a couple of days.  Guys like Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray still haven't signed anywhere, and the Chargers didn't re-sign Antonio Gates like a lot of people expected.  But there's still plenty of time for those things to happen.  I'm sure Gates wouldn't want to go through all of the offseason camp stuff anyway.  It wouldn't surprise me if they sign him in August and he's good to go Week 1.  But for now, he stays in my watch list.  And for now, Dez and DeMarco continue to slide down my big board. 

Lets see who else has moved around in my latest rankings!


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Alvin Kamara 
5. Antonio Brown: Up one spot. It felt wrong not having him in the top-5. 
6. David Johnson
7. Saquon Barkley
8. Leonard Fournette
9. DeAndre Hopkins: Down to this WR tier, leaving AB in a tier of his own.
10. Odell Beckham, Jr.: And moved these other WRs up into Round 1 too.
11. Michael Thomas
12. Julio Jones
13. Rob Gronkowski: Up a couple more spots with the Edelman suspension. Nearly back into Rd 1.
14. Dalvin Cook
15. Kareem Hunt
16. Melvin Gordon
17. Keenan Allen 
18. Davante Adams
19. A.J. Green  
20. Mike Evans
21. Doug Baldwin
22. Devonta Freeman     
23. Jerick McKinnon   
24. Christian McCaffery
25. Joe Mixon 
26. LeSean McCoy: Moved to the bottom of this RB tier. His O-line is worse, and he's getting old.
27. T.Y. Hilton 
28. Adam Thielen
29. Alshon Jeffery
30. Stefon Diggs
31. Jordan Howard: Down to this RB tier. Nagy sounds like he's going to use Cohen a LOT.
32. Jay Ajayi 
33. Alex Collins
34. Derrius Guice: Moving up to this RB tier because he feels like he belongs in Round 3.
35. Zach Ertz: Ertz and Kelce slightly up too. I'm starting to really value the top-3 TEs.
36. Travis Kelce
37. Larry Fitzgerald
38. JuJu Smith-Schuster: Up to this WR tier. Why not? With Martavis gone, he could be special.
39. Amari Cooper
40. Kenyan Drake
41. Derrick Henry: Down a RB tier. New OC sees him and Lewis as "1A and 1B".  Not a good sign.
42. Rashaad Penny
43. Tyreek Hill: Down a WR tier. I don't trust him as much in a new offense with a new QB.
44. Demaryius Thomas
45. Brandin Cooks
46. Marvin Jones
47. Josh Gordon: I feel like Tyrod will get him the ball. Gordon seems to belong in the top-50.
48. Michael Crabtree
49. Aaron Rodgers: Fell about ten spots. QB is deep, and losing Jordy could hurt.
50. Deshaun Watson: Assuming he's fully healthy, I moved him a few spots above Russell Wilson.
51. Sony Michel
52. Lamar Miller: With D'Onta possibly ready for Week 1, I felt I had Miller too high. 
53. Marshawn Lynch
54. Ronald Jones
55. Mark Ingram: Back up slightly. Could still be top-12 RB even with missing first 4 games.
56. Tevin Coleman   
57. Dion Lewis: There should be plenty of touches for both RBs in this offense. Up.
58. Chris Hogan: Already had him high before Edelman's suspension, but now up a WR tier.
59. Golden Tate
60. Allen Robinson
61. Corey Davis
62. Jarvis Landry
63. Devin Funchess
64. Tom Brady: Moved him back up to the top of this QB tier.
65. Russell Wilson: And moved both him and Wentz down a few spots to this tier.
66. Carson Wentz
67. Marlon Mack
68. Royce Freeman: Up to this RB tier with Marlon Mack. Like Mack, he could be the starter.
69. Chris Thompson: Moved him up too. Should be healthy and have a big role like last year.
70. Allen Hurns: If he can stay healthy, he can replicate his 2015 season. WAY up for me.
71. DeVante Parker: I think I had him too low. Landry leaves a lot of targets in Miami.
72. Sterling Shepard: I also moved him up. Adam Rank has him as a top-12 WR!
73. Will Fuller 
74. Pierre Garcon: He was decent last year when healthy. Up a couple of WR tiers.
75. Cam Newton: Swapped him with Kirk. If I draft Cam, I'll just draft another QB (Week 4 bye). 
76. Drew Brees: Not a great fantasy year in 2017. Down a bit to this QB tier. 
77. Kirk Cousins 
78. Jimmy Graham: No sure thing he's a top-5 fantasy TE. Down to here with rest of these guys.
79. Kyle Rudolph 
80. Delanie Walker: Moved him WAY back up to this TE tier...above Olsen even!
81. Greg Olsen 
82. Evan Engram: Down two spots to the bottom of this TE tier.
83. Rex Burkhead: Up slightly to this RB tier. 
84. Isaiah Crowell
85. Kerryon Johnson: Rookie running backs. So hot right now. Up to this RB tier. 
86. Emmanuel Sanders
87. Randall Cobb
88. Robert Woods
89. Robby Anderson: A suspension is coming, but how many games will it be?  Down...
90. Kelvin Benjamin
91. Aaron Jones: Head coach making this backfield sound like a 3-headed monster.  Down.
92. Nick Chubb 
93. C.J. Anderson
94. Tarik Cohen: Up to this RB tier. Sounds like he'll be very involved in Bear offense this year. 
95. Jamaal Williams: Also down, but I have him and Aaron Jones in same RB tier for now.
96. Sammy Watkins
97. Jordy Nelson: Down another WR tier. I just don't trust him without Aaron Rodgers.
98. Marqise Lee
99. D.J. Moore: Up to this WR tier. Could be in a position to be #1 WR in Carolina right away.  
100. Julian Edelman: Starting the year with a 4 game PED ban. Down but not out of top-100.
101. Matthew Stafford: Moved to the top of this QB tier. Feels like the safest top-10 QB pick. 
102. Andrew Luck
103. Philip Rivers
104. D'Onta Foreman
105. Frank Gore: He felt a little high where I had him. Dolphins could struggle to score TDs.
106. DeMarco Murray: Still unsigned and out of my top-100.
107. Kenny Stills 
108. Cooper Kupp
109. Rishard Matthews
110. Marquise Goodwin
111. Dez Bryant: He also falls out of my top-100 after going unsigned for so long.
112. Nelson Agholor
113. Jamison Crowder: Back up a little. Has been top-40 WR and averaged 100 targets last 2 years. 
114. Mike Williams
115. Josh Doctson 
116. Bilal Powell 
117. Peyton Barber: As long as the Bucs don't sign a guy like DeMarco Murray, Barber up for me.
118. Devontae Booker 
119. Carlos Hyde: Duke Johnson signed a contract extension. Hyde down even further.
120. Giovani Bernard: Down to the Bilal Powell RB tier. Bilal and Gio feel like similar values.
121. Jordan Reed: Up slightly. This feels like a good spot to take a chance on the injury-prone TE.
122. Trey Burton: Could be this year's Kelce/Ertz. Had to get him back up here, even with early bye.
123. Michael Gallup
124. Cameron Meredith
125. Calvin Ridley: Even in a keeper league, he felt too high in top-100. Julio/Sanu ahead of him.
126. Tyrell Williams
127. Matt Breida
128. Duke Johnson
129. Theo Riddick: SO many RBs in Detroit right now. Down a RB tier.
130. Paul Richardson
131. Kenny Golladay: Without a solid TE now, Golladay feels like option 3 or 4 in this offense. Up.
132. Geronimo Allison
133. Tyler Lockett
134. Jordan Matthews: Some of the worst hands in the NFL, but has Brady throwing to him. Up.
135. Kenneth Dixon
136. Corey Clement: Sproles re-signed and Clement down a RB tier.
137. Spencer Ware
138. Jared Goff: Moved him and Jimmy G down to this last QB tier.
139. Jimmy Garoppolo
140. Marcus Mariota: Got him and Mahomes into my top-150 and Matt Ryan/Alex Smith out of it. 
141. Patrick Mahomes
142. Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Down to the last TE tier before the Ds.
143. George Kittle: Added him to this TE tier. Feels safer than a guy like Eifert.
144. Charles Clay: I know he's old, but who else will catch balls in Buffalo? Should get targets. Up.
145. Chargers DEFENSE
146. Broncos DEFENSE
147. Jaguars DEFENSE
148. Ravens DEFENSE
149. Rams DEFENSE
150. Saints DEFENSE
151. Eagles DEFENSE
152. Vikings DEFENSE
153. Steelers DEFENSE
154. Patriots DEFENSE
155. Chiefs DEFENSE
156. Seahawks DEFENSE

Watch List:

QBs
Matt Ryan
Alex Smith
Ben Roethlisberger
Dak Prescott
Blake Bortles
Derek Carr
Jameis Winston: Bottom of the watch list. Will only draft him if also draft a QB with early bye.
RBs
Nyheim Hines: Down to the top of the watch list until this backfield gets sorted out.
Jordan Wilkins
Ty Montgomery
Doug Martin
Jalen Richard
DeAndre Washington
James White
Jeremy Hill
Kalen Ballage: Lots of hype around this rookie, so I added him to the watch list.
LeGarrette Blount
Ameer Abdullah
Latavius Murray
Samaje Perine
Charles Sims
Chris Carson
C.J. Prosise
Terrance West
Chris Ivory
James Conner
Javorius Allen
Austin Ekeler
John Kelly
Darren Sproles
Elijhaa Penny
T.J. Yeldon
Joe Williams
Alfred Morris
Orleans Darkwa
Eddie Lacy
WRs
Martavis Bryant: Too many question marks.  Down to the watch list.
Mohamed Sanu: Will lose targets to Ridley. Down to the watch list.
Albert Wilson: Added to the watch list. Could be #1 WR for Miami this year. Yes, really.
John Ross
Anthony Miller
Kevin White
Taylor Gabriel
Chris Godwin
DeSean Jackson
Ted Ginn
James Washington
Christian Kirk
J.J. Nelson
Brice Butler
Brandon Marshall
Jaron Brown
Terrelle Pryor
Quincy Enunwa
Jermaine Kearse
Malcolm Mitchell
Kenny Britt
Jeremy Maclin
Willie Snead
John Brown
Chester Rogers
Ryan Grant
Dontrelle Inman
Dede Westbrook
Keelan Cole
Donte Moncrief
D.J. Chark
Eric Decker
Travis Benjamin
Mike Wallace
Mack Hollins
Kendall Wright
Courtland Sutton
Deon Cain
Cole Beasley: The Cowboys lost over half of their targets from 2017. Beasley a sneaky late pick.

TEs
Tyler Eifert: His back issues concern me. Down to the watch list.
Mike Gesicki: And while I like his potential, he also belongs in the watch list. At least for now...
Hayden Hurst
Antonio Gates
Benjamin Watson
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Austin Hooper
Rico Gathers
Blake Jarwin: Not sure who the TE to own in Dallas is, so added Jarwin too (for now).
David Njoku
Luke Willson
Nick Vannett
Vance McDonald: Added to the list, assuming he gets more playing time than Jesse James...
Clive Walford: A long shot to be a top-15 or so TE, but could be big target if Anderson misses time.
O.J. Howard: I definitely have too many TEs on this list, but Howard and Brate should be here.
Cameron Brate
Jake Butt: He belongs at the END of a list...ya know?

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings v4

Image result for ovechkin redskinsThe last time I updated my rankings, it was right after the NFL draft and the Caps/Penguins series was just underway.  Here we are now in June and the Caps are actually in the Stanley Cup Final!

Not a lot has changed in the NFL in the last month or so though.  There have only been a couple of quasi-meaningful free agent signings: C.J. Anderson to the Panthers and Brandon Marshall to the Seahawks.  There are a couple of signings that haven't happened yet that could have bigger fantasy impacts, including guys like Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray.  Mark Ingram got hit with a 4 game ban for PEDs, so that was a story for a minute or two.  OTAs got underway, and Hunter Henry tore his ACL.  To me, that's a big injury for fantasy because I had him as a top-5 TE.  Of course now everyone is wondering if the Chargers will re-sign Antonio Gates, who could probably end up as a TE1 if he's back with his old team.  To me, this just demonstrates how bleak the tight end landscape is.  I don't feel all that confident about anyone outside of the top 3 or 4 guys now.  So if I don't get one of them, I'll be waiting a while on the position.

Speaking of certain positions like TEs (and QBs), I've lowered a few because I don't like drafting players at those positions with early bye weeks.  While I like Cam Newton to be a top-10 fantasy QB this year, I don't like his early bye.  When your starting QB has a Week 4 bye, it means you're basically forced to draft 2 QBs.  If you don't, you'll be scrambling to pick someone up after just a couple of weeks, and I don't like that scenario.  If you're into drafting two QBs anyway, then Cam's a good pick.  I just usually don't go that route.  The same goes for tight ends.  Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed both have Week 4 byes, and Trey Burton is off in Week 5.  I'm not saying that none of those guys will be top-10 fantasy TEs this year, but who knows?  Maybe none of them will be. 

Either way, I don't like having to snag a backup tight end that early.  It means you'll have to waive some rookie you don't want to give up on just yet...OR you may need to waive Reed or Burton because they get off to a slow start anyway.  Let's be honest though.  If you draft Jordan Reed as your tight end, you'd better draft a second tight end.  I've lowered some of those guys accordingly, and I even moved Trey Burton down to my watch list.  That's not to say you shouldn't draft him, but I probably won't.  I'll likely have Jordan Howard as one of my keepers, and I really don't want more than one Bear on my roster (and then both of them to have an early bye week).  Remember: these are my rankings.  Deal with it.  :)

The other big change in my rankings is going from a top-180 to a top-156.  My 12-team league eliminated kickers this year (YESSSSS!!!!), so we now have two keepers and an 11 round draft...so 13x12 = 156.  Don't worry.  I'll still have a ton of guys in my watch list below the top-156, and I'll be moving people in and out of my main rankings as we get closer to the preseason.  If you have a question about a guy outside of the top-156, shoot it over in the comments.  Unless it's a kicker.  In which case, keep it to yourself.

Let's get to the rankings, shall we?


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Alvin Kamara 
5. David Johnson
6. Antonio Brown: Decided to move him down here with Hopkins and have all RBs in top-5.
7. DeAndre Hopkins
8. Saquon Barkley: Swapped him with Dalvin Cook. Hard not to buy into his hype.
9. Leonard Fournette
10. Dalvin Cook
11. Kareem Hunt
12. Melvin Gordon
13. Odell Beckham, Jr.
14. Michael Thomas
15. Julio Jones
16. Keenan Allen: Hunter Henry ACL tear has me moving him up a couple of spots. 
17. Rob Gronkowski: Also slightly up with Hunter Henry's injury. It's ugly after top-5 or so TEs...
18. Davante Adams
19. A.J. Green  
20. Mike Evans
21. Doug Baldwin: Up to the bottom of this tier. Should be a top-10 WR this season.
22. LeSean McCoy
23. Devonta Freeman           
24. Jerick McKinnon
25. Jordan Howard
26. Christian McCaffery: Down just two spots with the Panthers signing C.J. Anderson.
27. Joe Mixon: Up to the bottom of this RB tier. Bengals O-line improved.
28. T.Y. Hilton 
29. Adam Thielen
30. Alshon Jeffery: He felt a little high in Round 2. Down to this WR tier.
31. Stefon Diggs: In a contract year and now with Cousins throwing to him. Up a couple of spots.
32. Jay Ajayi 
33. Alex Collins: Dixon will be in the mix, but Collins proved he can be the guy. Up. 
34. Derrick Henry  
35. Aaron Rodgers
36. Amari Cooper
37. Larry Fitzgerald: I know he's old, but he still feels like he belongs up here in this WR tier.
38. Tyreek Hill: I'll be keeping K. Hunt and don't trust Mahomes just yet. Down to this WR tier.
39. Zach Ertz
40. Travis Kelce: Likewise with Kelce. Moved Ertz above him.  Wentz >>> Mahomes.
41. Kenyan Drake
42. Derrius Guice: Up near the top of this RB tier. Feels like he'll be the workhorse. 
43. Rashaad Penny: Also moved him WAY up assuming he'll be the lead back in Seattle. 
44. Lamar Miller
45. Marvin Jones
46. Demaryius Thomas: I always end up a little too high on Demaryius. Down a couple of WR tiers.
47. JuJu Smith-Schuster
48. Brandin Cooks
49. Michael Crabtree 
50. Sony Michel: Too good and in too good of an offense to not be in top-50. Up.
51. Ronald Jones: Will move down if the Bucs sign AP or DeMarco Murray, but they haven't yet...
52. Marshawn Lynch: Not sure why Doug Martin scared me, but I had Marshawn WAY too low.
53. Tevin Coleman  
54. Mark Ingram: A 4 game ban for PEDs and a Week 6 bye. Yikes. Down.
55. Russell Wilson 
56. Deshaun Watson 
57. Carson Wentz
58. Jimmy Graham
59. Golden Tate
60. Josh Gordon: Swapped him with Landry. Gordon with more upside. 
61. Corey Davis
62. Allen Robinson: Assuming I'll keep Jordan Howard, I'm lowering A-Rob. 
63. Devin Funchess
64. Jarvis Landry
65. Dion Lewis: Felt I had him and Aaron Jones a little high.  Moved both down a few spots.
66. Aaron Jones 
67. Marlon Mack: By the time real games start, I'm not so sure he's the starter. Down.
68. Tom Brady: Moved him and Brees down to a tier of their own.
69. Drew Brees
70. Chris Hogan: Moved him above Edelman. Hogan in a contract year, and Edelman injury prone.
71. Will Fuller 
72. Robby Anderson: Coming off a great season. UP, though a suspension could be looming...
73. Julian Edelman
74. Royce Freeman: Down a RB tier because I think Booker could win the job.
75. Jamaal Williams: Needed to be in top-100. Could end up with most FPs in GB's backfield.
76. Chris Thompson: Down slightly. Seems like Guice could be the real deal.
77. Kirk Cousins 
78. Cam Newton: While I like Cam's receiving options now, I don't like the Week 4 bye.  Down.
79. Evan Engram: Felt like he needed to be down a little more with OBJ back this year.
80. Kyle Rudolph: Moved ahead of Greg Olsen. I really hate the Week 4 bye for a TE...
81. Greg Olsen: Once I realized he had the Week 4 bye, I moved him down to this TE tier.
82. Emmanuel Sanders
83. Randall Cobb: With Jordy out of the picture, Cobb felt too low in the 90s. Up.
84. Kelvin Benjamin
85. Robert Woods
86. DeVante Parker
87. Sterling Shepard 
88. Jordy Nelson: Moved him down to this WR tier. Getting old and in a new system. 
89. Isaiah Crowell
90. C.J. Anderson: Down slightly, but the JStew role in Carolina isn't terrible... 
91. Nick Chubb: Put him in my top-100 and Hyde just outside of it.  
92. Rex Burkhead: I felt I dropped him too low. Should still have big role in the offense.
93. DeMarco Murray
94. Frank Gore 
95. Sammy Watkins
96. Pierre Garcon
97. Dez Bryant: The longer he's without a team, the more he drops in my rankings...
98. Allen Hurns: Felt he needed to be higher, as he's the likely #1 target for Dak/Dallas... 
99. Marqise Lee: Lots of WRs in Jacksonville, but he feels like the #1 guy.
100. Calvin Ridley: Top-70 felt a little high. Down a couple of WR tiers.
101. Andrew Luck
102. Philip Rivers: After careful consideration, I swapped him and Stafford with Goff/Jimmy G.
103. Matthew Stafford
104. Carlos Hyde: Down to this RB tier, but this feels so low for him...
105. Tarik Cohen
106. D'Onta Foreman
107. Giovani Bernard: Down a RB tier. Mixon likely to handle a bigger workload this year.
108. Cooper Kupp: Down a WR tier. Watkins gone, but Gurley/Cooks/Woods options first.
109. Kenny Stills: He felt too low, so he's up a WR tier.  
110. Rishard Matthews: Him too.
111. Nelson Agholor
112. Josh Doctson
113. Mike Williams  
114. Marquise Goodwin: Him three.
115. Kerryon Johnson
116. Bilal Powell
117. Devontae Booker
118. Theo Riddick
119. Jared Goff
120. Jimmy Garoppolo
121. Jamison Crowder: Down a WR tier. It's uncertain as to who Alex Smith will throw to most.
122. Cameron Meredith: He just felt like he belonged up in this WR tier.
123. D.J. Moore: Not feeling confident about rookie WRs just yet. Down to this tier with Gallup.
124. Michael Gallup
125. Tyrell Williams: Up slightly with Hunter Henry out for the season. Big red zone target...  
126. Matt Breida: McKinnon won't be a 3 down back, and Breida could get a lot of touches. Up.
127. Duke Johnson: Moved down after the Browns drafted Chubb, but he still felt too high. Down.
128. Peyton Barber: Up to this RB tier. As long as Bucs don't sign someone else, he'll have big role. 
129. Corey Clement: Eagles re-signed Sproles, so Clement down a couple of RB tiers.
130. Delanie Walker 
131. Jordan Reed: The dreaded Week 4 bye, and he'll probably be hurt by then anyway. Down.
132. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
133. Paul Richardson: He could actually be the #1 WR in Washington. Up. 
134. Geronimo Allison
135. Martavis Bryant
136. Mohamed Sanu: Up to this WR tier. Boring pick that will be a solid FLEX.
137. Tyler Lockett  
138. Nyheim Hines 
139. Kenneth Dixon: Should compete with Collins for touches, as long as he stays active. 
140. Spencer Ware: Moved into top-156. Handcuff for Hunt (who I'll keep)...also contract year.
141. Tyler Eifert
142. Mike Gesicki 
143. Matt Ryan
144. Alex Smith
145. Chargers DEFENSE
146. Broncos DEFENSE
147. Jaguars DEFENSE
148. Ravens DEFENSE
149. Rams DEFENSE
150. Saints DEFENSE: I keep moving them up, but I hope to get one of my top-3 Ds.
151. Eagles DEFENSE
152. Vikings DEFENSE
153. Steelers DEFENSE
154. Patriots DEFENSE
155. Chiefs DEFENSE
156. Seahawks DEFENSE

Watch List:

QBs
Jameis Winston
Derek Carr
Ben Roethlisberger
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Sam Darnold
Marcus Mariota
Case Keenum
Eli Manning
Blake Bortles
Mitch Trubisky
Andy Dalton

RBs
Jordan Wilkins: Mike Clay thinks Wilkins will lead the Colt backfield in touches, so added here.
LeGarrette Blount: Patricia may use him as goal line back, but lots of RBs in Detroit. Down.
Latavius Murray: As long as Dalvin is healthy for Week 1, he's a pure handcuff.  Down.
Doug Martin: Down to the watch list until we see his usage in Raider offense.
Ty Montgomery: All the way down to the watch list until further notice.
Samaje Perine: With the hype around Guice gaining steam, Perine felt like he belonged down here.
Chris Carson: Same with Penny and Carson. He just feels like an afterthought for fantasy.
C.J. Prosise
Jonathan Stewart
James White
Jeremy Hill
Jalen Richard
DeAndre Washington
Joe Williams
Eddie Lacy
Charles Sims
Orleans Darkwa
Terrance West
Javorius Allen
Chris Ivory
James Conner
Alfred Morris
Damien Williams
Austin Ekeler
John Kelly
Darren Sproles: He's not done just yet...added to the watch list.
Elijhaa Penny: If you draft DJ, probably want Penny as the handcuff. Added to watch list.
Ameer Abdullah: Down to the watch list. I feel like he'll be out of the mix in Detroit.
T.J. Yeldon: Basically just a handcuff if Fournette gets hurt. Down to the watch list.

WRs
Kenny Golladay
Chris Godwin
DeSean Jackson
James Washington: Will he fit in right away in Pittsburgh? Felt like he belonged down here.
Christian Kirk: He also doesn't feel like a top-150 guy just yet...
J.J. Nelson
Brice Butler: Moved down to watch list too. Not sure I want a Cardinal WR other than Fitz.
Brandon Marshall: Signed with the Seahawks. One year deal. Stays in watch list for now.
Jaron Brown: Down to the watch list with the Seahawks signing Marshall.
Terrelle Pryor: Down to the watch list. I can't trust him after last season.
Quincy Enunwa
Dante Pettis: He belonged down to the watch list. No sure thing he'll even be a starter.
Jordan Matthews: Removed from my top-150 til he shows me something.
Malcolm Mitchell
Corey Coleman
Jeremy Maclin
Willie Snead
John Brown
Kevin White
Taylor Gabriel
John Ross
Chester Rogers: I don't see why he couldn't be the #2 WR in Indy. Added to the watch list.
Ryan Grant
Dontrelle Inman
Ted Ginn
Kenny Britt
Dede Westbrook: Down to the watch list. Too many WRs in JAX, including D.J. Chark now.
Keelan Cole
D.J. Chark
Eric Decker
Jermaine Kearse
Travis Benjamin
Mike Wallace: Lots of mouths to feed in Philly. Will be inconsistent. Down to watch list.
Mack Hollins
Kendall Wright
Donte Moncrief
Jaleel Scott
Anthony Miller
Courtland Sutton
Deon Cain

TEs
Rico Gathers: With Witten out of the picture and Dallas with not great WRs, Gathers added.
Antonio Gates: Move well into top-180 if the Chargers re-sign him. For now, the watch list.
Trey Burton: Down to the watch list. Week 5 bye kind of stinks & I'll likely keep J. Howard.
Benjamin Watson
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Charles Clay
Austin Hooper
George Kittle
David Njoku
Luke Wilson: Could be the #1 TE in Detroit. Added to the list.
Nick Vannett: Also a deep sleeper, who could replace some of Graham's lost production.
Jake Butt
Hayden Hurst
Mark Andrews