Tuesday, June 5, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings v4

Image result for ovechkin redskinsThe last time I updated my rankings, it was right after the NFL draft and the Caps/Penguins series was just underway.  Here we are now in June and the Caps are actually in the Stanley Cup Final!

Not a lot has changed in the NFL in the last month or so though.  There have only been a couple of quasi-meaningful free agent signings: C.J. Anderson to the Panthers and Brandon Marshall to the Seahawks.  There are a couple of signings that haven't happened yet that could have bigger fantasy impacts, including guys like Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray.  Mark Ingram got hit with a 4 game ban for PEDs, so that was a story for a minute or two.  OTAs got underway, and Hunter Henry tore his ACL.  To me, that's a big injury for fantasy because I had him as a top-5 TE.  Of course now everyone is wondering if the Chargers will re-sign Antonio Gates, who could probably end up as a TE1 if he's back with his old team.  To me, this just demonstrates how bleak the tight end landscape is.  I don't feel all that confident about anyone outside of the top 3 or 4 guys now.  So if I don't get one of them, I'll be waiting a while on the position.

Speaking of certain positions like TEs (and QBs), I've lowered a few because I don't like drafting players at those positions with early bye weeks.  While I like Cam Newton to be a top-10 fantasy QB this year, I don't like his early bye.  When your starting QB has a Week 4 bye, it means you're basically forced to draft 2 QBs.  If you don't, you'll be scrambling to pick someone up after just a couple of weeks, and I don't like that scenario.  If you're into drafting two QBs anyway, then Cam's a good pick.  I just usually don't go that route.  The same goes for tight ends.  Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed both have Week 4 byes, and Trey Burton is off in Week 5.  I'm not saying that none of those guys will be top-10 fantasy TEs this year, but who knows?  Maybe none of them will be. 

Either way, I don't like having to snag a backup tight end that early.  It means you'll have to waive some rookie you don't want to give up on just yet...OR you may need to waive Reed or Burton because they get off to a slow start anyway.  Let's be honest though.  If you draft Jordan Reed as your tight end, you'd better draft a second tight end.  I've lowered some of those guys accordingly, and I even moved Trey Burton down to my watch list.  That's not to say you shouldn't draft him, but I probably won't.  I'll likely have Jordan Howard as one of my keepers, and I really don't want more than one Bear on my roster (and then both of them to have an early bye week).  Remember: these are my rankings.  Deal with it.  :)

The other big change in my rankings is going from a top-180 to a top-156.  My 12-team league eliminated kickers this year (YESSSSS!!!!), so we now have two keepers and an 11 round draft...so 13x12 = 156.  Don't worry.  I'll still have a ton of guys in my watch list below the top-156, and I'll be moving people in and out of my main rankings as we get closer to the preseason.  If you have a question about a guy outside of the top-156, shoot it over in the comments.  Unless it's a kicker.  In which case, keep it to yourself.

Let's get to the rankings, shall we?


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Alvin Kamara 
5. David Johnson
6. Antonio Brown: Decided to move him down here with Hopkins and have all RBs in top-5.
7. DeAndre Hopkins
8. Saquon Barkley: Swapped him with Dalvin Cook. Hard not to buy into his hype.
9. Leonard Fournette
10. Dalvin Cook
11. Kareem Hunt
12. Melvin Gordon
13. Odell Beckham, Jr.
14. Michael Thomas
15. Julio Jones
16. Keenan Allen: Hunter Henry ACL tear has me moving him up a couple of spots. 
17. Rob Gronkowski: Also slightly up with Hunter Henry's injury. It's ugly after top-5 or so TEs...
18. Davante Adams
19. A.J. Green  
20. Mike Evans
21. Doug Baldwin: Up to the bottom of this tier. Should be a top-10 WR this season.
22. LeSean McCoy
23. Devonta Freeman           
24. Jerick McKinnon
25. Jordan Howard
26. Christian McCaffery: Down just two spots with the Panthers signing C.J. Anderson.
27. Joe Mixon: Up to the bottom of this RB tier. Bengals O-line improved.
28. T.Y. Hilton 
29. Adam Thielen
30. Alshon Jeffery: He felt a little high in Round 2. Down to this WR tier.
31. Stefon Diggs: In a contract year and now with Cousins throwing to him. Up a couple of spots.
32. Jay Ajayi 
33. Alex Collins: Dixon will be in the mix, but Collins proved he can be the guy. Up. 
34. Derrick Henry  
35. Aaron Rodgers
36. Amari Cooper
37. Larry Fitzgerald: I know he's old, but he still feels like he belongs up here in this WR tier.
38. Tyreek Hill: I'll be keeping K. Hunt and don't trust Mahomes just yet. Down to this WR tier.
39. Zach Ertz
40. Travis Kelce: Likewise with Kelce. Moved Ertz above him.  Wentz >>> Mahomes.
41. Kenyan Drake
42. Derrius Guice: Up near the top of this RB tier. Feels like he'll be the workhorse. 
43. Rashaad Penny: Also moved him WAY up assuming he'll be the lead back in Seattle. 
44. Lamar Miller
45. Marvin Jones
46. Demaryius Thomas: I always end up a little too high on Demaryius. Down a couple of WR tiers.
47. JuJu Smith-Schuster
48. Brandin Cooks
49. Michael Crabtree 
50. Sony Michel: Too good and in too good of an offense to not be in top-50. Up.
51. Ronald Jones: Will move down if the Bucs sign AP or DeMarco Murray, but they haven't yet...
52. Marshawn Lynch: Not sure why Doug Martin scared me, but I had Marshawn WAY too low.
53. Tevin Coleman  
54. Mark Ingram: A 4 game ban for PEDs and a Week 6 bye. Yikes. Down.
55. Russell Wilson 
56. Deshaun Watson 
57. Carson Wentz
58. Jimmy Graham
59. Golden Tate
60. Josh Gordon: Swapped him with Landry. Gordon with more upside. 
61. Corey Davis
62. Allen Robinson: Assuming I'll keep Jordan Howard, I'm lowering A-Rob. 
63. Devin Funchess
64. Jarvis Landry
65. Dion Lewis: Felt I had him and Aaron Jones a little high.  Moved both down a few spots.
66. Aaron Jones 
67. Marlon Mack: By the time real games start, I'm not so sure he's the starter. Down.
68. Tom Brady: Moved him and Brees down to a tier of their own.
69. Drew Brees
70. Chris Hogan: Moved him above Edelman. Hogan in a contract year, and Edelman injury prone.
71. Will Fuller 
72. Robby Anderson: Coming off a great season. UP, though a suspension could be looming...
73. Julian Edelman
74. Royce Freeman: Down a RB tier because I think Booker could win the job.
75. Jamaal Williams: Needed to be in top-100. Could end up with most FPs in GB's backfield.
76. Chris Thompson: Down slightly. Seems like Guice could be the real deal.
77. Kirk Cousins 
78. Cam Newton: While I like Cam's receiving options now, I don't like the Week 4 bye.  Down.
79. Evan Engram: Felt like he needed to be down a little more with OBJ back this year.
80. Kyle Rudolph: Moved ahead of Greg Olsen. I really hate the Week 4 bye for a TE...
81. Greg Olsen: Once I realized he had the Week 4 bye, I moved him down to this TE tier.
82. Emmanuel Sanders
83. Randall Cobb: With Jordy out of the picture, Cobb felt too low in the 90s. Up.
84. Kelvin Benjamin
85. Robert Woods
86. DeVante Parker
87. Sterling Shepard 
88. Jordy Nelson: Moved him down to this WR tier. Getting old and in a new system. 
89. Isaiah Crowell
90. C.J. Anderson: Down slightly, but the JStew role in Carolina isn't terrible... 
91. Nick Chubb: Put him in my top-100 and Hyde just outside of it.  
92. Rex Burkhead: I felt I dropped him too low. Should still have big role in the offense.
93. DeMarco Murray
94. Frank Gore 
95. Sammy Watkins
96. Pierre Garcon
97. Dez Bryant: The longer he's without a team, the more he drops in my rankings...
98. Allen Hurns: Felt he needed to be higher, as he's the likely #1 target for Dak/Dallas... 
99. Marqise Lee: Lots of WRs in Jacksonville, but he feels like the #1 guy.
100. Calvin Ridley: Top-70 felt a little high. Down a couple of WR tiers.
101. Andrew Luck
102. Philip Rivers: After careful consideration, I swapped him and Stafford with Goff/Jimmy G.
103. Matthew Stafford
104. Carlos Hyde: Down to this RB tier, but this feels so low for him...
105. Tarik Cohen
106. D'Onta Foreman
107. Giovani Bernard: Down a RB tier. Mixon likely to handle a bigger workload this year.
108. Cooper Kupp: Down a WR tier. Watkins gone, but Gurley/Cooks/Woods options first.
109. Kenny Stills: He felt too low, so he's up a WR tier.  
110. Rishard Matthews: Him too.
111. Nelson Agholor
112. Josh Doctson
113. Mike Williams  
114. Marquise Goodwin: Him three.
115. Kerryon Johnson
116. Bilal Powell
117. Devontae Booker
118. Theo Riddick
119. Jared Goff
120. Jimmy Garoppolo
121. Jamison Crowder: Down a WR tier. It's uncertain as to who Alex Smith will throw to most.
122. Cameron Meredith: He just felt like he belonged up in this WR tier.
123. D.J. Moore: Not feeling confident about rookie WRs just yet. Down to this tier with Gallup.
124. Michael Gallup
125. Tyrell Williams: Up slightly with Hunter Henry out for the season. Big red zone target...  
126. Matt Breida: McKinnon won't be a 3 down back, and Breida could get a lot of touches. Up.
127. Duke Johnson: Moved down after the Browns drafted Chubb, but he still felt too high. Down.
128. Peyton Barber: Up to this RB tier. As long as Bucs don't sign someone else, he'll have big role. 
129. Corey Clement: Eagles re-signed Sproles, so Clement down a couple of RB tiers.
130. Delanie Walker 
131. Jordan Reed: The dreaded Week 4 bye, and he'll probably be hurt by then anyway. Down.
132. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
133. Paul Richardson: He could actually be the #1 WR in Washington. Up. 
134. Geronimo Allison
135. Martavis Bryant
136. Mohamed Sanu: Up to this WR tier. Boring pick that will be a solid FLEX.
137. Tyler Lockett  
138. Nyheim Hines 
139. Kenneth Dixon: Should compete with Collins for touches, as long as he stays active. 
140. Spencer Ware: Moved into top-156. Handcuff for Hunt (who I'll keep)...also contract year.
141. Tyler Eifert
142. Mike Gesicki 
143. Matt Ryan
144. Alex Smith
145. Chargers DEFENSE
146. Broncos DEFENSE
147. Jaguars DEFENSE
148. Ravens DEFENSE
149. Rams DEFENSE
150. Saints DEFENSE: I keep moving them up, but I hope to get one of my top-3 Ds.
151. Eagles DEFENSE
152. Vikings DEFENSE
153. Steelers DEFENSE
154. Patriots DEFENSE
155. Chiefs DEFENSE
156. Seahawks DEFENSE

Watch List:

QBs
Jameis Winston
Derek Carr
Ben Roethlisberger
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Sam Darnold
Marcus Mariota
Case Keenum
Eli Manning
Blake Bortles
Mitch Trubisky
Andy Dalton

RBs
Jordan Wilkins: Mike Clay thinks Wilkins will lead the Colt backfield in touches, so added here.
LeGarrette Blount: Patricia may use him as goal line back, but lots of RBs in Detroit. Down.
Latavius Murray: As long as Dalvin is healthy for Week 1, he's a pure handcuff.  Down.
Doug Martin: Down to the watch list until we see his usage in Raider offense.
Ty Montgomery: All the way down to the watch list until further notice.
Samaje Perine: With the hype around Guice gaining steam, Perine felt like he belonged down here.
Chris Carson: Same with Penny and Carson. He just feels like an afterthought for fantasy.
C.J. Prosise
Jonathan Stewart
James White
Jeremy Hill
Jalen Richard
DeAndre Washington
Joe Williams
Eddie Lacy
Charles Sims
Orleans Darkwa
Terrance West
Javorius Allen
Chris Ivory
James Conner
Alfred Morris
Damien Williams
Austin Ekeler
John Kelly
Darren Sproles: He's not done just yet...added to the watch list.
Elijhaa Penny: If you draft DJ, probably want Penny as the handcuff. Added to watch list.
Ameer Abdullah: Down to the watch list. I feel like he'll be out of the mix in Detroit.
T.J. Yeldon: Basically just a handcuff if Fournette gets hurt. Down to the watch list.

WRs
Kenny Golladay
Chris Godwin
DeSean Jackson
James Washington: Will he fit in right away in Pittsburgh? Felt like he belonged down here.
Christian Kirk: He also doesn't feel like a top-150 guy just yet...
J.J. Nelson
Brice Butler: Moved down to watch list too. Not sure I want a Cardinal WR other than Fitz.
Brandon Marshall: Signed with the Seahawks. One year deal. Stays in watch list for now.
Jaron Brown: Down to the watch list with the Seahawks signing Marshall.
Terrelle Pryor: Down to the watch list. I can't trust him after last season.
Quincy Enunwa
Dante Pettis: He belonged down to the watch list. No sure thing he'll even be a starter.
Jordan Matthews: Removed from my top-150 til he shows me something.
Malcolm Mitchell
Corey Coleman
Jeremy Maclin
Willie Snead
John Brown
Kevin White
Taylor Gabriel
John Ross
Chester Rogers: I don't see why he couldn't be the #2 WR in Indy. Added to the watch list.
Ryan Grant
Dontrelle Inman
Ted Ginn
Kenny Britt
Dede Westbrook: Down to the watch list. Too many WRs in JAX, including D.J. Chark now.
Keelan Cole
D.J. Chark
Eric Decker
Jermaine Kearse
Travis Benjamin
Mike Wallace: Lots of mouths to feed in Philly. Will be inconsistent. Down to watch list.
Mack Hollins
Kendall Wright
Donte Moncrief
Jaleel Scott
Anthony Miller
Courtland Sutton
Deon Cain

TEs
Rico Gathers: With Witten out of the picture and Dallas with not great WRs, Gathers added.
Antonio Gates: Move well into top-180 if the Chargers re-sign him. For now, the watch list.
Trey Burton: Down to the watch list. Week 5 bye kind of stinks & I'll likely keep J. Howard.
Benjamin Watson
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Charles Clay
Austin Hooper
George Kittle
David Njoku
Luke Wilson: Could be the #1 TE in Detroit. Added to the list.
Nick Vannett: Also a deep sleeper, who could replace some of Graham's lost production.
Jake Butt
Hayden Hurst
Mark Andrews

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