Week 11 Rankings

I know if you're reading this, you really only care about your own fantasy team.  But I'm excited, dammit!  I got a W last week, and now I'm in 10th place at 4-6.  I'm going to need to string together 3 more in order to be in the playoff hunt, and (cliche alert) I'm going to take them one week at a time.  I was hoping to get these out again before the likes of espn and yahoo, but it was not to be this time.  Oh well.  It actually gives me a basis for comparison in the notes after each position.  Let's get right into those Week 11 rankings!

QBs

1.Aaron Rodgers

2.Drew Brees

3.Tom Brady

4.Peyton Manning

5.Matthew Stafford

6.RGIII

7.Matt Ryan

8.Carson Palmer 9.Andrew Luck 10.Cam Newton 11.Andy Dalton 12.Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.Tony Romo

14.Josh Freeman 15.Matt Schaub 16.Philip Rivers 17.Joe Flacco 18.Nick Foles 19.Sam Bradford 20.Brandon Weeden I had Vick ranked pretty highly for the second week in a row, and now he was also starting for my fantasy team.  He actually looked pretty good until he got knocked out of the game with a concussion (*sigh*).  Now I'm looking to make a last minute trade at the deadline because his future looks about as fuzzy as his vision probably does right now.  I didn't have a lot of surprises in my Week 10 rankings, but I had Luck and Rivers both pretty high, with Rivers higher than all of the experts.  I thought Luck would have over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and I got half of that right with the scores (although they came on the ground...I'm sure that didn't matter to fantasy owners of the rookie).  As for Rivers, he finished as the #6 QB for the week, and yes, I just just patted myself on the back for that one.   This week I'm ranking Carson Palmer in my top 10.  It's tough to put him ahead of guys like Ryan and Stafford right now, but I could see Palmer finishing as a top 5 QB this week against that Saints defense.  I just don't have the stones to rank him that highly.  It looks like the experts rank him about where I have as well.  Another guy I'm high on this week is Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I've had him ranked higher than the experts several other weeks, and I'm pretty sure I've been right each time.  I still can't understand why no one wants to rank him highly, especially this week against the Dolphins.  If not now, when?  P.S. I love ranking him ahead of Romo.  It feels so right.  And while I have Fitzpatrick only slightly higher than most experts, I do have him above Romo (which others do not).  I'll take that bet! A couple more notes on my QB rankings: 1. I shortened the list down to 20.  At this point, if you're trying to determine whether you should start Mark Sanchez or any QB for the Cardinals or 49ers, you should just give up on your season right now.   2. As of this writing, it looks like Big Ben is out against the Ravens, so I'm not including him (or Leftwich) in my rankings.  This will also affect my rankings of other position players for the Steelers.

RBs

1.Arian Foster

2.Ray Rice 3.LeSean McCoy 4.CJ Spiller

5.Trent Richardson 6.Stevan Ridley 7.Doug Martin 8.Jamaal Charles 9.Alfred Morris 10.Steven Jackson 11.Reggie Bush 12.Matt Forte 13.Michael Turner 14.Marcel Reece 15.Felix Jones 16.Shonn Greene 17.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 18.Ryan Mathews 19.Frank Gore 20.Willis McGahee 21.Mikel LeShoure 22.Darren Sproles 23.Larod Stephens-Howling 24.Donald Brown 25.Rashad Jennings 26.Jonathan Dwyer 27.James Starks 28.Daniel Thomas 29.Mark Ingram 30.Jonathan Stewart 31.Danny Woodhead 32.Daryl Richardson 33.Vick Ballard 34.Ronnie Brown 35.Jacquizz Rodgers 36.Kendall Hunter 37.Peyton Hillis 38.Alex Green 39.Joique Bell 40.Isaac Redman Chris Johnson continued to do his best AP impression last week, and it looks like the only thing that is stopping those two right now is their bye weeks.  I mentioned last week that San Diego does pretty well against the run, so don't go crazy on moving Doug Martin way up just yet.  He finished 16th among RBs in my league (way to overreact, experts).  I will say that I am moving him up this week since he's playing against a much more generous (though not terrible) Panthers defense, but I'm still not going with the experts who have Douggie around #2 or 3.  I'm not ready to do that just yet. I didn't get everything right last week though.  I did bump up LeShoure (and he didn't do much), and I lowered Fred Jackson quite a bit, and he had his best week of the season (I'm keeping him down on my list though because I think it's a fluke...and because he's not playing this week).  I did get a couple more right though.  I was really high on Steven Ridley, who finished inside the top-10, and I suggested Marcel Reece would be the safe play to replace the injured McFadden against Baltimore.  He didn't find paydirt, but he did finish inside the top-20 RBs with over 100 all purpose yards, so if you were scrambling for a bye week fill-in, Reece was definitely serviceable. I'm going to continue to stay on the Marcel Reece train, especially this week against that Saints defense that'll probably give up about 34-38 points to the Raiders.  I think he'll have another 100+ total yard game, and I think he'll also find the endzone this week.  I might be ranking him a little high, but that's what I'm projecting so I'm sticking to it.  I'm also staying with the hot hand of Steven Jackson.  He had a solid game against a tough Niners D, and this week he gets the Jets at home.  I like him as a top-10 guy this week.  I'm dropping Willis McGahee because the Chargers have a good run defense and Manning lit them up the first time around.  I'm thinking it'll be more of the same.  Frank Gore also drops this week as he faces the Bears defense which will be focusing on the run as they go against a backup QB.  I have him much lower than the experts do this week.  I understand not getting cute and going with the sure thing sometimes in fantasy, but if I'm a Frank Gore owner, I'm worried against the Bears this week. I'm really going to miss Peterson on his bye.  Hopefully my other guys can get me through to Week 12... WRs

1.Calvin Johnson 2.Demaryius Thomas 3.AJ Green 4.Denarius Moore  5.Andre Johnson 6.Reggie Wayne 7.Julio Jones 8.Wes Welker 9.Roddie White 10.Jordy Nelson 11.Marques Colston 12.Eric Decker 13.Larry Fitzgerald 14.Brandon Marshall 15.Miles Austin 16.Steve Smith 17.Vincent Jackson 18.Steve Johnson 19.Randall Cobb 20.Dez Bryant 21.Danny Amendola 22.Brian Hartline 23.DeShaun Jackson 24.Mike Wallace 25.Torrey Smith  26.James Jones 27.Dwayne Bowe 28.Lance Moore 29.Mike Williams 30.Brandon Lloyd 31.Malcom Floyd 32.Darius Heyward-Bey 33.Jeremy Maclin 34.Titus Young 35.Cecil Shorts 36.Josh Morgan 37.Michael Crabtree 38.Anquan Boldin 39.Jeremy Kerley 40.Donnie Avery 41.Andre Roberts 42.Santana Moss I put AJ back at the top spot last week, and Megatron blew up against the Vikings.  I'm fine with that, as it was on my fantasy team, and Green still had a top-10 week.  I'm putting Johnson back at the top spot this week, and I'm going to need him to deliver.  I ranked Vincent Jackson back down where I thought he belonged for Week 10, and he finished with a mere 59 yards.  I was big on Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker (and to a lesser extent Steve Johnson), and while all had solid games, none were anywhere close to where I ranked them.  Then again, as I look at the top WRs for Week 10, it is a weird group.  I mean, who had two Seattle WRs in their top-5?  Exactly. This week I like Denarius Moore as a top-5 play.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like I'm all-in on the Raiders in Week 11.  They could make me look really good or really silly.  I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I think it'll be the Saints D that looks silly.  I'm also moving Heyward-Bey up my a bit.  Assuming Jordy is healthy, I have him back in my top-10.  I also have Andre3000 ranked higher than I've had him all season I think.  We'll see if that's the kiss of death or not, but I really think he'll blow up against the 1-8 Jags.  The experts don't agree with me on this one, but Johnson has seen double-digit target in each of his last four games.  In Week 2 against Jacksonville, he only saw 4 targets.  Maybe that's due to good coverage (which he may see again this week), but I'm thinking it was more just getting ahead and not needing the pass.  I'm banking on them going to him early and often in this game, and a big play or two has him in the top-5 along with Denarius Moore.  Yeah, that sounds a little strange.  Brandon Marshall slides way down the list, at least until Cutler is healthy again.  I've seen what Jason Campbell can do to a wide receiver's fantasy value, and it ain't good... TEs

1.Jimmy Graham

2.Rob Gronkowski 3.Tony Gonzalez  4.Jason Witten 5.Antonio Gates 6.Owen Daniels 7.Greg Olsen 8.Vernon Davis 9.Brent Celek 10.Heath Miller 11.Brandon Pettigrew 12.Dustin Keller 13.Jermaine Gresham 14.Brandon Myers 15.Dennis Pitta 16.Jermichael Finley 17.Dwayne Allen 18.Scott Chandler Gronk pulled in a TD last week, but Hernandez was still on the sidelines due to injury.  I'm going to leave him off my rankings until I hear otherwise.  Dustin Keller stayed in my top 10, but he didn't finish there in Week 10.  I removed Dennis Pitta and Kyle Rudolph from my TE rankings, so naturally they each hauled in 60+ yards and a TD .  It was a pretty big week for good tight ends in general, but not so much for my rankings.  I'll try to do better this week, but it just feels like a crap shoot at this point.  Unless you have one of the top five, it's going to be tough week to week.  My top 6 this week is actually exactly the same as the espn expert rankings, and after that it becomes a little more of a guessing game.  I'll hang my hat on Greg Olsen at #7 to have another big week to follow up his huge Week 10 performance.  Tampa Bay is pretty good against the run, and I like Cam to keep going to his tight end (and WRs) a bit more than usual this week.

DEF 1.Texans

2.49ers  3.Bears 4.Ravens 5.Broncos 6.Falcons 7.Bengals 8.Cowboys 9.Steelers 10.Rams 11.Bucs

12.Jets 13.Patriots 14.Redskins San Francisco didn't live up to their top billing last week, which was pretty surprising at home against the Rams.  I had the Steelers at the #2 spot, but they finished 12th.  I was planning to roll with the Patriots as my Week 10 streaming defense, but I had the Dolphins in my lineup and was unable to change it on Sunday due to Yahoo's server issue.  Luckily it didn't cost me a win, but I still want to try to get as many points as possible because I might need them as a tiebreaker if I make it that far come the end of the Week 13 games.  Needless to say, the Dolphins were not a good pick, but the Patriots were solid (at least from a fantasy perspective).  This week, I like all of the best defenses at the top, especially with the Texans playing the lowly Jags, and the 49ers and Bears playing each other (and both probably with backup QBs).  I would say that'll probably be a 13-10 game, but I actually think each team might get an offensive TD and combined it wouldn't surprise me if there were 3 or 4 defensive TDs.  I'm dead serious.  I like the Ravens for pretty much the same reason.  If Big Ben can't go, in a rivalry game, T Sizzle and crew will be going after Leftwich.  The Bengals are my streaming defense this week.  Hopefully they'll keep the trend rolling against those horrible Chiefs! Cheers, Bart

Re: Real Football Predictions

It's Week 10 in the NFL, and my fantasy team has the same record as my real life team: the Redskins.  Damn.  That's a little depressing.  I did my fantasy mid-year review, so I thought I'd take a look at my actual football predictions for the year and see how they're holding up.  To refresh your memory, here they are:

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: San Diego
AFC Wild Card1: Buffalo Bills
AFC Wild Card2: Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC East: New York Giants
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
NFC Wild Card1: Chicago Bears
NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions

Super Bowl Prediction: New England over Chicago

I must say, aside from the Bills and Lions, that doesn't look too bad right now.  And in fact, of the five losses for the Bills, three of them were New England, San Fran, and Houston.  Those aren't bad losses by any means, and the rest of the season for them is much easier than the first half, so who knows?  Of course I mean the rest of the season, as in, after this week when they play at New England.  

As for the Lions, they flat out struggled early on, but they've won their last two and get a chance at revenge against Minnesota this week.  They still have to play Green Bay twice, and they end the year versus Atlanta and Chicago, but at least those two games are at home.  And you never know, those teams might be set for the playoffs and be resting players.  It has definitely happened before.  I guess if I were to change any picks at this point, it'd be the Bills and Lions, but I'll just stick to my guns...for now.

I like the rest of my picks, as most of those teams are leading their divisions as of right now.  The only other one that isn't is the Chargers, and I don't really know what to think about the AFC West just yet.  Everyone seems to be on the Bronco/PeytonManning bandwagon, and while their losses have been to good teams, their wins haven't been against great teams.  That being said, it is the AFC West, and the rest of their schedule is pretty soft.  They beat the Chargers in San Diego earlier this season, and they get them at home in Week 11.  If they can win that game, they're in the driver's seat to win that division for sure.  But seeing as how they have losses to Atlanta, Houston, and New England, I don't think they're going to be a true Super Bowl contender (while those other guys will be...along with the Bears of course, per my prediction).

I still like New England over Chicago for the Super Bowl.  I'll roll with that one all the way to the end!!!

Cheers,
Bart

Week 10 Rankings

I thought Week 5 was a tough pill to swallow, but the fantasy football gods showed up against me once more in Week 9.

I could write a 10 page essay about my Week 9 debacle, but I won't.  What I will say is that I put up the second most points of anyone in the league, but the most points were put up by the guy I was playing.  Of course almost half of his points came from Doug Martin: God of Destruction.

To add to that misfortune, I could have won this week (easily most likely) if I had known the trade rules.  From Yahoo help:

Trades

• If a player is used in an active roster spot and is involved in a trade, the trade will get pushed back and it will process for the upcoming week. In order to have the trade processed for the current week, the team that owned the player who was involved with the early week game would need to bench that player. It is not possible for a manager to actively use a player and then trade that same player before the week has been completed.

I was not aware of such a rule, and so I can really only blame myself for the loss this week.  Even still, as I've said, it's a tough pill to swallow.  Had I sat Dwayne Bowe for the Thursday night game, my trade would have gone through on Sunday morning (which is what I was preparing for but didn't happen).  I would have been able to play Megatron and Vick (instead of Bowe and Fitzpatrick).  My fantasy football world would be a different place today, but it is not.  Maybe this isn't my year to win it all.  But maybe it is.  Maybe now with this trade, my team will gain some momentum and turn things around (if only a fantasy team could do such a thing).  I'm firmly in "must win" territory now, and I feel like I need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.  Luckily in my league, 7-6 should be in the top half of the league, but that means I need to start with a W right now.  We'll see if Week 10 is the start of something special or if it's the start of playing to "not be last" and have the league name my team in 2013.  It'll mean that for either me or my opponent, as we're both sitting at 3-6 right now.  Enough complaining on my end.  Let's get to the rankings!

QBs

1.Tom Brady

2.Matt Ryan

3.Drew Brees

4.Peyton Manning

5.Matthew Stafford

6.Andrew Luck

7.Ben Roethlisberger

8.Michael Vick 9.Eli Manning 10.Cam Newton 11.Philip Rivers 12.Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.Joe Flacco

14.Tony Romo 15.Andy Dalton 16.Josh Freeman 17.Carson Palmer 18.Alex Smith 19.Matt Hasselbeck 20.Russell Wilson 21.Jay Cutler 22.Matt Schaub 23.Ryan Tannehill 24.Christian Ponder Last week I ranked Vick pretty highly on Monday night against that horrible Saints defense, and although he did enough to give me a victory had I been smarter with my trade, he finished 10th for the week.  Not terrible, but not as well as I thought he'd do.  Hopefully he can get his act together at home against a division rival.  I'm going to need him.  I also had my opponent's bye week fill-in Josh Freeman near the top-10, and he finished 9th.  I said he would easily break the 20 fantasy point mark against that Raider D, and he ended up with 20.43 points in our league.  This week, I feel like my rankings are pretty standard.  Not a lot of surprises up there.  I'm getting these out a day early this week, so I don't have the expert rankings to really compare against, but I think I'll probably have Luck and Rivers higher than most.  I think Luck will continue to roll, especially against the Jags secondary.  In a shortened week, I just get the feeling that they won't be able to prepare as much for him, and it's going to favor the deep ball.  I look for Luck to have over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns Thursday night.  As for Rivers, he's going up against a porous Tampa Bay pass defense.  He hasn't been great on the road lately, but I just have a feeling that he'll do some damage on my bench this week.

RBs

1.Ray Rice

2.Marshawn Lynch 3.LeSean McCoy 4.Arian Foster

5.Adrian Peterson 6.Stevan Ridley 7.Matt Forte 8.Chris Johnson 9.Michael Turner 10.Willis McGahee 11.Reggie Bush 12.Doug Martin 13.Frank Gore 14.Ahmad Bradshaw 15.Mikel LeShoure 16.Ryan Mathews 17.Jamaal Charles 18.CJ Spiller 19.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 20.Rashad Jennings 21.Isaac Redman 22.Pierre Thomas 23.Felix Jones 24.Marcel Reece 25.Shonn Greene 26.Vick Ballard 27.Steven Jackson 28.Joique Bell 29.Daniel Thomas 30.Fred Jackson 31.Jonathan Stewart 32.Ronnie Brown 33.Andre Brown 34.Jacquizz Rodgers 35.Kendall Hunter 36.Michael Bush 37.Peyton Hillis 38.Philip Tanner 39.LaGarrette Blount 40.Taiwan Jones Chris Johnson didn't cool off much against the Bears.  He got well over 100 yards and a TD against that defense, so consider me shocked.  And consider him matchup-proof from here on out.  I was hoping for a big game out of Mathews against KC, and I had him ranked much higher than the experts last week.  Unfortunately, he was the only one of my three running backs who didn't go off in Week 10.  I think this week will be a tough go for him against Tampa's rush D, so I'm lowering him a bit.  San Diego does pretty well against the run themselves, so I'm not going crazy and moving Doug Martin up too much just yet.  I am going to bump up LeShoure this week though, and I'm really high on Steven Ridley this week.  He's going up against a Bills defense that is giving up almost 2 rushing TDs/game on average, and New England is coming off their bye week.  I think he's primed for a big day.  Fred Jackson continues to fall down my list.  I think Spiller is going to continue to get more and more of the workload, as long as he's healthy.  Marcel Reece seems to be the safe play to replace the injured McFadden this week against Baltimore.  If anything, he should get a TD if they get close to the goal line.  I wouldn't trust Taiwan Jones to get too many carries, nor do much with them, until he shows me something. WRs

1.AJ Green 2.Brandon Marshall 3.Calvin Johnson 4.Julio Jones 5.Victor Cruz 6.Wes Welker 7.Reggie Wayne 8.Demaryius Thomas 9.Mike Wallace 10.Roddie White 11.Andre Johnson 12.Eric Decker 13.Marques Colston 14.Denarius Moore  15.Steve Johnson 16.Steve Smith 17.Miles Austin 18.Brandon Lloyd 19.Vincent Jackson 20.Dez Bryant 21.Torrey Smith  22.Hakeem Nicks 23.DeShaun Jackson 24.Malcom Floyd 25.Dwayne Bowe 26.Jeremy Maclin 27.Lance Moore 28.Antonio Brown 29.Mike Williams 30.Brian Hartline 31.Danny Amendola 32.Michael Crabtree 33.Donnie Avery 34.Sidney Rice 35.Nate Washington 36.Anquan Boldin 37.Darius Heyward-Bey 38.Cecil Shorts 39.Titus Young 40.Kenny Britt 41.Jeremy Kerley 42.Golden Tate I went out on a tiny limb and ranked Calvin Johnson as the #1 fantasy wide receiver for Week 9, but he finished outside the top-10.  I'm going to play it safe and put AJ back at the top spot this week.  I did have Vincent Jackson as a top-10 WR, and he lived up to that expectation.  But I'm ranking him back down a little lower where I think he belongs for Week 10.  I'm big on Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker this week, as I think I have them higher than they've been on this list all season.  I also am predicting a big game for Steve Johnson this week.  Go figure.  I'm not ranking Percy Harvin due to his injury, but if he gives it a go, I think I'd still put him outside the top-10. TEs

1.Rob Gronkowski

2.Jimmy Graham 3.Jason Witten 4.Aaron Hernandez 5.Tony Gonzalez  6.Heath Miller 7.Antonio Gates 8.Vernon Davis 9.Owen Daniels 10.Dustin Keller 11.Brent Celek 12.Martellus Bennett 13.Brandon Pettigrew 14.Greg Olsen 15.Brandon Myers 16.Jermaine Gresham 17.Jared Cook 18.Dwayne Allen Gronk and Hernandez are both in the top 5 this week, and I think both will pull in a TD.  Dustin Keller stays in my top 10, as I think Sanchez won't have much option than to give him about 8-10 targets a game.  Dennis Pitta and Kyle Rudolph, two guys in the top ten earlier in the year, are now nowhere to be found on this list.  I hope no one traded too much to get either of those guys.  Oh yeah.  They were probably both waiver wire pickups anyway.  And that's where they probably are now.

DEF 1.49ers

2.Steelers 3.Patriots 4.Seahawks 5.Dolphins 6.Bears 7.Texans 8.Ravens 9.Broncos 10.Bucs 11.Giants

12.Colts 13.Lions 14.Cowboys The Bears were back on top last week, and my streaming defense was San Diego at home against the Chiefs.  That worked out pretty well for me, as they were the #2 overall defense, scoring two defensive TDs on Thursday night.  This week I have San Fran on top with, you guessed it, the Steelers at the #2 spot playing at home against the Chiefs.  I'm starting to see a pattern here.  If you're paying attention and playing at home, you might want to pick up Cincy for Week 11.  Believe me, I've thought about doing just that.  As for this week, I like the Patriots a lot at home against a struggling Bills team (and again, New England is coming off their bye).  I also like the Dolphins as another defense that might be available on the waiver wire.  Tennessee at home is not a bad matchup.  If they can stop CJOK, they should be able to do enough to get a few fantasy points on the day. Enjoy the early rankings! Cheers, Bart