Week 3 Rankings

These Thursday games are forcing me to get these out pretty early, so no introduction here.  Just some week three rankings with a little bit of commentary.  Enjoy.

QBs
1.Drew Brees
2.Cam Newton
3.RGIII
4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Matt Ryan
6.Tom Brady
7.Tony Romo

8.Eli Manning 9.Joe Flacco 10.Michael Vick 11.Matthew Stafford 12.Philip Rivers 13.Big Ben

14.Ryan Fitzpatrick 15.Peyton Manning 16.Andrew Luck 17.Jay Cutler 18.Andy Dalton RGIII is creeping up in the rankings.  As a Redskins fan, I hope it's accurate this week against Cincy.  If Stafford finally has a big game this week, I'll move him back into the top 10.  But until he does so, he's moving down.  None of the experts have Fitzpatrick very high, but he's had a couple of solid starts, and I think he'll throw for 300 yards and 2 TDs against the Brownies.

RBs

1.Arian Foster

2.Ray Rice 3.CJ Spiller 4.LeSean McCoy

5.Maurice Jones-Drew 6.Marshawn Lynch 7.Michael Bush 8.DeMarco Murray 9.Trent Richardson 10.Frank Gore 11.Reggie Bush 12.Darren McFadden 13.Green-Ellis 14.Doug Martin 15.Ryan Mathews 16.Stevan Ridley 17.Darren Sproles 18.Jamaal Charles 19.Adrian Peterson 20.Chris Johnson 21.Steven Jackson 22.Alfred Morris 23.Willis McGahee 24.Michael Turner 25.Andre Brown 26.Donald Brown 27.Peyton Hillis 28.Kevin Smith 29.Mark Ingram 30.Cedric Benson 31.Shonn Greene 32.Ben Tate 33.Beanie Wells 34.DeAngelo Williams 35.Mikel Leshoure 36.Isaac Redman 37.David Wilson 38.Ryan Williams 39.Jonathan Stewart 40.Jacquizz Rodgers Michael Bush cracks the top 10 this week (probably no Forte for a little while *sigh*).  He should step into the feature back role quite nicely, just like he did in Oakland when McFadden went down.  Ryan Mathews and Andre Brown are a couple of the new names on this list.  For my sake, I hope Mathews starts and gets 15-20 touches.  I think he can do a lot with that against Atlanta (McGahee did last week).  Andre Brown looks to get the start for the G-Men with Bradshaw out.  Assuming they keep the game close, he should get a lot of work.  Mikel Leshoure is another new face here, and it'll be interesting to see how the Lions use him.  I expect Kevin Smith to get injured any day now, and Leshoure could be that late round flier who turns into fantasy gold by the middle of the season.  I guess we'll see. WRs

1.Victor Cruz 2.Calvin Johnson 3.AJ Green 4.Brandon Marshall 5.Percy Harvin 6.Andre Johnson 7.Steve Smith 8.Julio Jones 9.Miles Austin 10.Roddie White 11.Demaryius Thomas 12.Larry Fitzgerald 13.Reggie Wayne 14.Mike Wallace 15.Vincent Jackson 16.Dwayne Bowe 17.Stevie Johnson 18.Jordy Nelson 19.Brandon Lloyd 20.Torrey Smith 21.Antonio Brown 22.Wes Welker 23.Marques Colston 24.Jeremy Maclin 25.Dez Bryant 26.Malcom Floyd 27.Danny Amendola 28.Greg Jennings 29.Eric Decker 30.Anquan Boldin 31.Pierre Garcon 32.Brandon LaFell 33.DeShaun Jackson 34.Greg Little 35.Lance Moore 36.Mike Williams 37.Darrius Heyward-Bey 38.Alshon Jeffery 39.Michael Crabtree 40.Kenny Britt 41.Justin Blackmon 42.Donnie Avery It's tough not to rank Megatron #1, but with Hakeem Nicks out this week (*double sigh*), Cruz will probably get 20+ targets.  New York is down other key players too, so I could see them falling behind early and having to air it out.  I don't see why Cruz shouldn't be the top WR this week.  Then again, I had Brandon Marshall up there last week, so maybe it's the kiss of death.  Larry Fitzgerald is going to continue to fall until I see better fantasy potential from him this year, and the same goes for the Patriots receivers.  With the latter, I think it's only a matter of time before they both get back into the top 10.  Jennings and Garcon are back in the mix, but it's hard to tell how healthy they are, and thus how effective they will be.  Hence, they're not in the top 25 or so for me. TEs

1.Jimmy Graham

2.Rob Gronkowski 3.Vernon Davis 4.Brandon Pettigrew 5.Brent Celek 6.Tony Gonzalez 7.Martellus Bennett 8.Jermichael Finley 9.Antonio Gates 10.Jason Witten 11.Kyle Rudolph 12.Jacob Tamme 13.Owen Daniels 14.Jared Cook 15.Dennis Pitta I hate to keep talking about the Giants, but Martellus Bennett has had a good start to the season.  And again with Nicks out, he should see increased targets.  Even though he's a giant tease, I still have Gates in my top 10.  He better produce this week!!!

DEF 1.Bears

2.Jets 3.49ers 4.Texans 5.Eagles 6.Steelers 7.Packers 8.Lions 9.Cowboys 10.Bills 11.Ravens

12.Dolphins 13.Cardinals 14.Browns Defense is always a little tough to predict, but I like the Bears at home against St. Louis to be at the top of the list this week.  The Niners are the safe pick, and I still have them at #3, but Minnesota has looked somewhat promising thusfar and they are playing in Minneapolis.  The Seahawks don't make the list this week because they're playing Green Bay, but maybe I'm not giving them enough credit.  They probably belong instead of a team like the Browns, but we shall see...

Week 2 Rankings

It was fifteen minutes til the 1:00 kickoffs last Sunday, and my buddy and I were talking about starting or sitting Adrian Peterson.  I was checking yahoo, twitter, etc. to see what the experts were saying.  Of course they were saying to play it safe and stay away from AP.  But he was now starting the game!  I drafted him in the second round.  I couldn't sit him.  I couldn't imagine the regret of not playing him, and everyone was already assuming he'd get 10-15 touches.  I'll take that with Peterson...all day.  And take it I did.  I also convinced my friend to start him.  Needless to say, we were both very pleased with the results.  However, I still lost my matchup by like 40 or 50 points, so it didn't really matter for me personally.  My defense and WRs didn't show up, and the other guy had production from everywhere.  Hey, that's how it goes.

But it could have mattered for someone else.

I didn't do week one rankings because I was too busy, and I didn't even think about it until Sunday to be honest.  But I'm doing Week 2 rankings by position, and I'll try to update this every week (and maybe my top 200ish)...we'll see.  I'm getting married in a month, so blogging isn't exactly at the top of the priority list (but football is, so I'll try to put blogging at #3 or 4).  The point of my story about starting or sitting AP is this (and I've said it before):  these are my rankings.  If you want to use them, go for it.  If you want to use someone else's, fine.  Ultimately, I think you need to make up your own mind and listen to your gut.  If you have a tiny gut (or no feelings), then use these rankings on Sunday (and Thursday if you have any Packers or Bears playing).  Otherwise, gather information from everywhere possible and ultimately make your own decision.  That's what I did when it came to AP...of course my friend listened to my advice :)

I'm assuming a max 12 team league, so I'm not going to rank 32 QBs.  If you really want to know if you should start or sit Ryan Fitzpatrick or Mark Sanchez, check a real website.  I'm not ranking everyone here.  I'll give you what I think is enough to know who I think you should start or sit, and if it's not then let me know.  I'm also not ranking kickers.  If you want kicker rankings, you should quit fantasy football forever.

QBs
1.Tom Brady
2.Cam Newton
3.Aaron Rodgers
4.Drew Brees
5.Matt Ryan
6.Matthew Stafford
7.RGIII

8.Eli Manning 9.Peyton Manning 10.Jay Cutler 11.Michael Vick 12.Tony Romo 13.Philip Rivers

14.Joe Flacco 15.Carson Palmer 16.Josh Freeman 17.Andrew Luck 18.Big Ben I'm not ranking any more quarterbacks than that.  Sorry, folks.  Just a comment here.  I can't believe how gutless the experts are with ranking Rodgers as #1.  I realize he's the best QB in the league, but the Bears defense is solid, and in a shortened-week rivalry game, I don't think we're looking at a game in the 30s or 40s for each team.  Maybe I'm wrong but I'd take the under in that game.  I think Aaron will still get a lot of points, but I like Brady to destroy the Cardinals in New England's home opener, and I think Cam Newton will pick apart the Saints D the way RGIII did last week (maybe even more so!).

RBs

1.Arian Foster

2.Ray Rice 3.Darren McFadden 4.Adrian Peterson

5.Matt Forte 6.LeSean McCoy 7.Maurice Jones-Drew 8.Jamaal Charles 9.CJ Spiller 10.Green-Ellis 11.Chris Johnson 12.DeMarco Murray 13.Steven Jackson 14.Stevan Ridley 15.Doug Martin 16.Marshawn Lynch 17.Frank Gore 18.Ahmad Bradshaw 19.Darren Sproles 20.Ryan Mathews (if he plays) 21.Alfred Morris 22.Trent Richardson 23.Donald Brown 24.Willis McGahee 25.Reggie Bush 26.Michael Turner 27.Kevin Smith 28.Shonn Greene 29.Michael Bush 30.Cedric Benson 31.Peyton Hillis 32.Jonathan Dwyer 33.Beanie Wells 34.Ben Tate 35.Ryan Williams 36.Mark Ingram 37.Ronnie Brown (or Curtis Brinkley...if RM doesn't play: I'll be playing neither) 38.DeAngelo Williams 39.Jonathan Stewart 40.Jacquizz Rodgers I just want to go on record here as saying that Green-Ellis is going to finish the season as a top-10 running back.  I couldn't believe the expert draft pre-rankings with as low as Benjarvis was on all of them.  I realize I had him pretty high, but I also realize how the Bengals use a running back.  I also realize that if you extrapolate his numbers from New England to a full season in Cincy, you get crazy good fantasy numbers.  He looked really good against a tough Ravens defense, and he didn't even get all that many carries in the second half.  I think at home against Cleveland he's going to have 100+ yards and maybe 2 TDs.  I wanted to rank him 6th or 7th, but it's tough this early in the season.  Don't sleep on this guy... WRs

1.Calvin Johnson 2.Brandon Marshall 3.Larry Fitzgerald 4.Julio Jones 5.Andre Johnson 6.Roddie White 7.Brandon Lloyd 8.AJ Green 9.Victor Cruz 10.Wes Welker 11.Percy Harvin 12.Steve Smith 13.Demaryius Thomas 14.Dez Bryant 15.Torrey Smith 16.Marques Colston 17.Antonio Brown 18.Jordy Nelson 19.Reggie Wayne 20.Jeremy Maclin 21.Miles Austin 22.Hakeem Nicks 23.Pierre Garcon 24.Vincent Jackson 25.Eric Decker 26.Dwayne Bowe 27.Stevie Johnson 28.Mike Wallace 29.Anquan Boldin 30.Lance Moore 31.Malcom Floyd 32.Randall Cobb 33.DeShaun Jackson 34.Darrius Heyward-Bey 35.Titus Young 36.Mike Williams 37.Sidney Rice 38.Alshon Jeffery 39.Brandon LaFell 40.Michael Crabtree 41.Robert Meachem 42.Justin Blackmon 43.Greg Little 44.Danny Amendola 45.Greg Jennings (I'm assuming he's not playing, but keep an eye on him if he does...) Wow.  One week and people are off the Patriots bandwagon it seems.  I'm all in.  I have Tom Brady as my #1 QB this week, and I'm staying high on Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker.  Bring it on.  TEs

1.Jimmy Graham

2.Rob Gronkowski 3.Aaron Hernandez 4.Antonio Gates 5.Vernon Davis 6.Jermichael Finley 7.Jacob Tamme 8.Brandon Pettigrew 9.Jared Cook 10.Fred Davis 11.Tony Gonzalez 12.Coby Fleener 13.Jason Witten 14.Greg Olsen 15.Kyle Rudolph How many more tight ends do you need ranked?  That's enough.  I hope Gates is a top 5 play this week, but we'll see how serious the rib injury is this week.  Tamme is the biggest riser for me.  I think with a healthy Peyton, he's a top 10 start every week.

DEF 1.Texans

2.Jets 3.Patriots 4.Raiders 5.Bengals 6.Ravens 7.49ers 8.Steelers 9.Seahawks 10.Cowboys 11.Bears

12.Eagles 13.Giants 14.Redskins I'll end on that note.  Hail to the Redskins!!!

Real Football Predictions

Before the Cowboys/Giants opening kickoff this evening, I thought I'd get my official predictions for the real football season on here.  I actually took a few minutes to look at the entire NFL schedule (yes, every single game), and I did a very quick and dirty prediction for all of them.  It's always tough to tell who is going to improve and who will fall off from year to year, so it's a pretty silly exercise.  But it was also kind of fun.

I was left with was the following:

NE	BUF	NYJ	MIA
14-2	11-5	7-9	4-12
BAL	PIT	CIN	CLE
13-3	11-5	6-10	1-15
HOU	TEN	JAC	IND
11-5	5-11	5-11	3-13
SD	KC	DEN	OAK
10-6	9-7	8-8	7-9
NYG	PHI	DAL	WAS
11-5	10-6	8-8	6-10
GB	CHI	DET	MIN
14-2	12-4	11-5	4-12
ATL	NO	CAR	TB
11-5	7-9	7-9	6-10
SF	SEA	STL	ARI
10-6	7-9	4-12	3-13

Do I think the Redskins will add a win onto last year's record?  With the addition of RGIII and Pierre Garcon, sure.  I think that's worth a W.  Can the Buffalo Bills be that improved of a team?  Fred Jackson went down mid-season last year, Fitzpatrick was playing with a rib injury virtually all season, and in the offseason they improved their already impressive defensive line with Mario Williams.  So yeah, I think this is the year the Bills stay healthy and make it into the playoff picture.  And maybe I'm being a little hard on the AFC South (aside from the Texans), but we'll see.  I'm also being pretty hard on the Browns.  It looks like I'm saying they'll have the first pick in the 2013 draft though, so that's something.  Goodbye Brandon Weeden...Hello Matt Barkley!  (What?  Brandon Weeden's old!)


Needless to say, I'm sure I missed a game or two in there somewhere, but whatever.  If I were to make any kind of changes to them, I'd consider taking KC over SD for the AFC West and Philly over Detroit for the final NFC Wild Card spot.  But I'm just going with it, so here are my predictions:

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: San Diego
AFC Wild Card1: Buffalo Bills
AFC Wild Card2: Pittsburgh Steelers


NFC East: New York Giants
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
NFC Wild Card1: Chicago Bears
NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions

Super Bowl Prediction: New England over Chicago

2012 Fantasy Football Rankings v2.3

I listened to a good amount of sports radio last week, but it wasn't in RVA.  I was in Cleveland for work, and it was interesting to hear the local guys' takes on their sports teams, most notably, the Brownies.  It made me realize the similarities between them and the Redskins (stuck in 4 to 6-win seasons, putting a lot of faith into rookies, those star rookies appearing in local Subway ads, and the list goes on and on).  Thinking about how the Skins compare to the Browns got me a little down, but then I cheered up because of the way Cleveland (and Richmond/DC) guys talk about their teams at this point in the year.  Hope springs eternal with everyone at 0-0.  A playoff run is not out of the question (at least until we realize just how good, or not so good, everyone is around week 5 or 6).

That being said for real football, with my personal draft this past Saturday, I'm now ready with my squad for the fantasy season.  My house still smells a little like beer and farts, but the floor is no longer littered with bottles, cans, and fantasy football magazines.  That's all cleaned up.  What remains are a lot of promising teams on white pieces of paper taped to my living room wall (those are probably coming down today though...sorry, guys).  That hope is going to turn into wins for some teams and tears for others, but for the most part everyone is optimistic...for now.

I wanted to get an update out before my draft, but I also wanted to wait until the 53-man rosters were finalized at 9:00pm EST last Friday, just in case there were to be anymore last minute movers and shakers.  Needless to say, there were some Friday night pre-draft festivities, so that update didn't happen.  I tried to take a hard look at the bottom of my rankings, moving guys out of the top-168 if I really wasn't planning on drafting them.  That doesn't mean that they won't be a week one or two waiver wire pickup, but it does mean they were off my radar on my draft day.  There's just not room for everyone on this list.  Sorry, Pierre Thomas.  The fact is though, there weren't many changes to make (at least not yet).

This version is going to be a little more personal for my draft though, as I'm going to put keepers in parentheses, and I'll also highlight my draft results in blue.  I have five guys in my personal top 35 (first three rounds in a 12-team league), so I'm pretty pleased with that.  Apparently I also stuck pretty true to my rankings, which I'm happy about as well.  I didn't draft a kicker because I wanted to see how some week one running back situations play out before I decide on who to drop.  Again, it doesn't matter.  It's a KICKER!

Happy drafting to anyone who's doing it last-minute, and let's get ready for some football Wednesday night!

1. (Arian Foster)

2. Ray Rice

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Tom Brady

6. Drew Brees

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Chris Johnson

9. Maurice Jones-Drew: With the holdout over, he goes up to here.  Wish I'd known sooner...

10.(Darren McFadden)

11.(Jimmy Graham)

12.(Rob Gronkowski)

13.Matt Forte: Still got Forte with the 9th pick, which is about where I had him.

14.Steven Jackson

15.Jamaal Charles

16.Larry Fitzgerald

17.Brandon Marshall

18.Greg Jennings

19.(Green-Ellis)

20.(Ahmad Bradshaw)

21.(DeMarco Murray)

22.(Matthew Stafford)

23.(Cam Newton)

24.Adrian Peterson: My second round pick, not too confident in the knee, but we'll see.

25.(Ryan Mathews): My "top" keeper is still on the shelf, but practicing a little this week already.

26.Roddie White

27.Julio Jones

28.Andre Johnson

29.(Wes Welker)

30.(Brandon Lloyd)

31.Percy Harvin

32.(AJ Green)

33.(Hakeem Nicks): My other keeper, also not 100% healthy, but he's close.

34.Trent Richardson

35.Antonio Gates: I was the first to draft a tight end (with Gronk and Graham keepers).

36.(Victor Cruz)

37.(Marshawn Lynch): Not that it matters for my draft, but suspension should be minimal (if any).

38.Michael Turner

39.Frank Gore

40.Reggie Bush

41.Doug Martin

42.(Dez Bryant)

43.(Marques Colston)

44.Michael Vick

45.Darren Sproles

46.(Fred Jackson)

47.Willis McGahee

48.Demaryius Thomas

49.(Antonio Brown)

50.Mike Wallace

51.(Steve Smith)

52.Jordy Nelson

53.Dwayne Bowe: My fourth round pick, I felt like it was time to jump on a WR.

54.Jeremy Maclin

55.Aaron Hernandez

56.Philip Rivers: QBs were going fast.  I don't like having 3 Chargers, but oh well.

57.Donald Brown

58.Stevan Ridley

59.Beanie Wells

60.Torrey Smith

61.(Eric Decker)

62.Vincent Jackson

63.Stevie Johnson

64.Miles Austin

65.Vernon Davis

66.Jermichael Finley

67.Peyton Hillis

68.Shonn Greene 69.Eli Manning

70.Tony Romo

71.Peyton Manning

72.DeShaun Jackson

73.Pierre Garcon

74.Mark Ingram: I like where he fell, and I love his keeper potential.

75.Cedric Benson: Has the potential to get a lot of carries in Green Bay.

76.Isaac Redman: Just not that confident in his value as a #1 running back.

77.CJ Spiller

78.Reggie Wayne

79.Darrius Heyward-Bey 80.Jared Cook: Actually got him at end of the draft (not where I have him ranked here).

81.Fred Davis

82.Jason Witten

83.Michael Bush

84.Ben Tate

85.Ryan Williams

86.Toby Gerhart: Thought it'd be smart to get AP's handcuff with his week one in question.

87.David Wilson

88.Kevin Smith

89.RGIII

90.(Matt Ryan)

91.(Anquan Boldin)

92.Lance Moore: I'm big on Moore this year with Meachem gone. Could be a good flex.

93.Robert Meachem

94.Greg Little

95.Mike Williams

96.Denarius Moore

97.Josh Freeman

98.Mikel Leshoure

99.Ronnie Brown: I decided to handcuff Mathews too.  Tried to cover all my bases.

100.Lagarette Blount

101.DeAngelo Williams

102.Jacquizz Rodgers: Moved up based on preseason hype and keeper potential.

103.Brandon Pettigrew

104.Jacob Tamme 105.Coby Fleener

106.Malcom Floyd 107.Titus Young

108.Kenny Britt: Only one game suspension.  Too much talent not to take a chance.

109.Jon Baldwin

110.Sidney Rice

111.Randall Cobb

112.Montario Hardesty: Took with last pick over a kicker (might start week one).

113.Daniel Thomas

114.Robert Turbin

115.Ronnie Hillman

116.Jonathan Stewart

117.Jay Cutler

118.Andrew Luck

119.Big Ben

120.Carson Palmer

121.Greg Olsen

122.Jermaine Gresham

123.Tony Gonzalez

124.Justin Blackmon

125.Brandon LaFell

126.Nate Washington

127.Michael Crabtree

128.Danny Amendola: A solid pick this late.  Might be #1 WR in STL.

129.Rashad Jennings: Had to move down a lot with MJD back.

130.Shane Vereen

131.Alex Green

132.Evan Royster

133.Roy Helu

134.Mike Goodson

135.Felix Jones

136.Isaiah Pead

137.Kendall Hunter

138.Michael Floyd

139.Kendall Wright

140.Rashard Mendenhall

141.Bernard Scott

142.Dion Lewis

143.Bernard Pierce

144.Javon Ringer

145.Bears DEF

146.Jets DEF

147.Eagles DEF

148.49ers DEF

149.Steelers DEF

150.Ravens DEF

151.Bills DEF: I wanted either them or Seattle, and the Seahawks were gone.

152.Seahawks DEF

153.Patriots DEF

154.Packers DEF

155.Texans DEF

156.Lions DEF

157.Gostkowski (bye:9)

158.Akers (bye:9)

159.Prater (bye:7)

160.Bailey (bye:5)

161.Janikowski (bye:5)

162.Henery (bye:7)

163.Bryant (bye:7)

164.Crosby (bye:10)

165.Gould (bye:6)

166.Rackers (bye:10) 167.Bironas (bye:11) 168.Hanson (bye:5) Below are a few guys who I think might sneak into my rankings in the weeks to come: David Nelson  Jerome Simpson   Doug Baldwin Brian Quick Davone Bess Devery Henderson Alshon Jeffery Delone Carter Vick Ballard Curtis Brinkley Philip Tanner Pierre Thomas James Starks Alfred Morris Tim Hightower

Ryan Grant (free agent)