Monday, August 15, 2022

Check out my content over on ROSRankings.com!

In case anyone is still looking for my fantasy football content on this blog, I wanted to remind everyone that this season I'm posting my fantasy football articles & draft rankings over on www.rosrankings.com

If you follow me on Twitter, you've likely seen me posting links to podcast episodes I've been doing with @andrew_seifter. We're starting our position previews this week, and we'll continue to fade out baseball and focus on football in the coming weeks and of course continue during the season.

So that's it! Go check out my preseason articles at www.rosrankings.com!

Monday, April 4, 2022

Fantasy BASEBALL 2022: ROSRANKINGS.COM

Hey there, sports fans!

If you follow me on Twitter, you've likely seen me posting links to podcast episodes I've been doing lately with @andrew_seifter. The most recent one was a football free agency roundup, but most of the content we've been working on in March has been baseball related. If baseball isn't your thing, that's cool. I'm not moving away from football. I'm just adding to my repertoire.

The NFL offseason is a long one, and I've been playing fantasy baseball as long as fantasy football (over 20 years). I thought why not take a shot at rankings in baseball too?!

I'm posting my initial draft rankings below using the FantasyPros tool so I can enter the expert accuracy competition there. But Andrew and I have been putting a lot of work into our rankings over on www.rosrankings.com.  We have well over 300 player notes, and you can check out our combined rankings ahead of your fantasy baseball draft if you are last minute like me and haven't had yours yet. 

For in-season rest of season rankings and articles, that's where I'll be making my updates for baseball. I don't plan to make baseball posts here, so if baseball IS your thing, head over there. We're planning to do baseball podcasts twice a week during the season, and we'll sprinkle in some football here and there over the next few months as well.  When football picks back up, we'll be shifting a bit and will have more pigskin content for you guys.

So that's my update for now. If it's football you're looking for, we'll likely do our next football podcast shortly after the NFL draft so stay tuned..

Thursday, February 10, 2022

Never Too Early 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings

Until people stop calling their initial rankings for next season their "way too early" rankings, I'll continue to call mine the "never too early" rankings.  

Granted, both sound equally corny.  But whatever.  It's never too early to start thinking about next year!  

FantasyPros already has rookies in their 2022 draft rankings tool, so I've even sprinkled a few of them into my first edition below.  I've added notes next to a handful of guys, and I'll continue to update these over the next couple of months (but likely no huge changes until mid March when free agency signings start happening).  So let's get right into it and let me know what you think on Twitter!




Thursday, January 20, 2022

Fantasy Football 2021 End of Year Review

Like pretty much everyone I know it seems, COVID has finally infiltrated our household.  With two kids in daycare around other snot-nosed monsters who have no sense of social distancing, it was only a matter of time.  In fact, I'm surprised we've lasted this long.  

In any event, life has been busy the last week or so, and I haven't had much time to balance work, kids, and make some time for (gasp!)...myself.  But I'm finally sitting down to do my end of year review, where I look back at my preseason articles and see what I got right and what I got wrong.  This article tends to be super long, and every year I honestly try to make it shorter.  I won't recap every pick from every article.  If you want to go back and look at everything I wrote this summer, you're welcome to do so.  I'll include a hyperlink in each section below.  But for today, I'll just play the hits.  

If you've checked out my rankings this year, you likely know I had a decent amount of success in the FantasyPros expert accuracy competition (finishing 8th on the season!).  With that came a lot of new followers on Twitter, and I really do appreciate it.  I'm sure a lot of you only care about the weekly rankings for start/sit decisions during the season, but this is a year round thing I do here, so buckle in!  

That's not to say I'll be posting things every week during the offseason.  In fact, things will be relatively quiet over the next couple of months.  But I'll have my first edition of 2022 rankings out soon, and the NFL Draft will be here before you know it.  So stay tuned.

For now, let's go back and look at my preseason picks, shall we?




I'm renaming this article on the fly because after that domestic violence video of Zac Stacy surfaced, it feels much better giving my man Alfred top billing.  Anyway, this is by far my favorite preseason article to write every year.  It's a Q&A format that includes my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc. based on historical trends.  I've revisited a few below to discuss the actual results and highlight a couple I almost got right too.

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), Devin Singletary (2019), or James Robinson (2020)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

My Preseason Answer: Kenneth Gainwell
Honorable Mention: Jaret Patterson
End of season ACTUAL Answer: Elijah Mitchell
Guys like Najee Harris and Javonte Williams are excluded from this category because they were both drafted too highly in real life and/or fantasy.  But Eli Mitchell basically grabbed this backfield from Day 1 and never really looked back (outside of injury).  He ended up as the RB26 on the year, but he was really better than that because he was RB16 in fantasy points per game.  As for Gainwell, I was actually feeling pretty good about him about a month into the season.  But then the Eagles started playing guys like Boston Scott and Jordan Howard in October, and Gainwell fell back in the pecking order.  Still, he showed signs of being a playmaker and could be the 1b in this backfield next season.


Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), or Nyheim Hines/J.D. McKissic (2020)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

My Preseason Answer: Kenyan Drake
Honorable Mention: James Conner
End of season ACTUAL Answer: James Conner
At least I nailed my honorable mention here, but Drake wasn't close to sniffing the top-20 even before his Week 13 ankle injury.  On the other hand, Conner ended the season with 15 touchdowns and was the RB7.  And honestly, it felt like a sneaky top-10 finish because even by midseason I feel like people weren't giving him enough credit as a top fantasy running back.  He was a bit touchdown dependent, but the guy scored so many...who cares?!


Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), A.J. Brown (2019), or Tee Higgins (2020)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-25 fantasy WR.]

My Preseason Answer: Rondale Moore
Honorable Mention: Terrace Marshall, Jr.
End of season ACTUAL Answer: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Like with the first RB category, guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were drafted too highly for consideration here.  But Amon-Ra St. Brown was a top-5 WR down the stretch and ended up as the WR27 on the season (and WR21 if you include Week 18).  He's the closest person to fitting this category, and he did it with Jared Freaking Goff (his given name) most of the season.  He should get bonus points for that.



Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), or Kyler Murray/Josh Allen (2020)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

My Preseason Answer: Tua Tagovailoa
Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow
End of season ACTUAL Answer: Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow 
You could have drafted Tua outside of the top-20 QBs this year, so I liked him as a deeper sleeper to maybe finish in the top-12.  Joe Burrow was already being drafted near QB1 territory back in August, but finishing as the QB5, he definitely took an even bigger leap than expected.  As for Herbert, he finished as the QB2 so he made that leap and then some.  Both guys will be selected as top-10 QBs in drafts next season, and deservingly so.


Back in the summer, I looked at every team in the NFL and tried to find one "value" guy on each squad who I liked the most based on his ADP at that time (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).  Let's take a look back at a few guys I wrote about in that article who outperformed their preseason ADP (and a few who didn't). 
NOTE: End of season finishes are based on Weeks 1-17.

Good calls!
Damien Harris - Overall ADP 75, End of season RB13
Mike Williams - Overall ADP 121, End of season WR15
Darnell Mooney - Overall ADP 139, End of season WR26
Marquez Callaway - Overall ADP 193, End of season WR35

Excluding injuries, not-so-good calls
Tre Sermon - Overall ADP 93, End of season RB93
Zack Moss - Overall ADP 94, End of season RB49
Trevor Lawrence - Overall ADP 128, End of season QB23 (QB38 in PPG, yuck!)
T.Y. Hilton - Overall ADP 153, End of season WR95


The funny thing is, one of my big takeaways from this article a season ago was "Will Fuller needs PEDs to stay healthy."  And yet, I didn't learn because I wrote about him again before the 2021 season.  The guy played in two games this year and never saw the field after that.  I didn't include players like him in my summary above because with so many injuries in the NFL every year, about half of my list doesn't really fit into a good call or bad call bucket.  Anyway, on to the next one...






As a reminder: These were NOT my preseason position rankings.  

My preseason/draft rankings always have a ton of factors built into them, but these were my preseason predictions for who could finish in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons.  I highlighted in BOLD the guys who actually finished in the top-12 at their position this year.


My preseason top-12 QBs 
Kyler Murray 
Patrick Mahomes

Lamar Jackson
Russell Wilson
Justin Fields
Tom Brady
Josh Allen 
Matthew Stafford
Dak Prescott  
Derek Carr
Aaron Rodgers
Kirk Cousins

At first glance, it feels a bit embarrassing that I didn't even include Herbert or Burrow in this list.  But you know, aside from them, Jalen Hurts is the only other guy I didn't get in this top-12.  I even nailed guys like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins for goodness sake!  And Lamar was the QB8 in fantasy PPG, so he would've made this list had it not been for that late season injury.  So my only real misses here were Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  Wilson had been a perennial top-10 fantasy QB prior to this season, and Fields was always a bold/longshot call.  I'd say I did fairly well with this list.


My preseason top-12 RBs 
Dalvin Cook 
Ezekiel Elliott 
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry 
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Gus Edwards
Jonathan Taylor
Nick Chubb
Austin Ekeler
AJ Dillon
Chris Carson
Sony Michel

I had a lot of wild cards in this preseason list, and injuries derailed a bunch of these guys.  Sony Michel was probably my craziest pick, and he ended up as a top-30 RB!  AJ Dillon finished as RB22 and was an Aaron Jones injury away from finishing where I had him.  Looking back, I don't really hate any of these picks (even the long shots).

My preseason top-12 WRs 
Tyreek Hill
Calvin Ridley
Davante Adams 
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
DeAndre Hopkins 
Stefon Diggs
Robert Woods
Jerry Jeudy
Chris Godwin
Will Fuller 
D.J. Moore

Will Fuller is officially dead to me.  I mean, if he could stay healthy, I'm sure he could be a top-12 fantasy WR.  But it looks like that will never happen.  This list is littered with disappointment, but you have to take some shots.  No one knew Calvin Ridley would sit most of the season due to a non-injury, and guys like Robert Woods and A.J. Brown could've been up there if healthy.  But that "if healthy" thing is certainly a trend here.  It sure makes all of this predicting difficult.


My preseason top-12 TEs 
Darren Waller
Travis Kelce 
Kyle Pitts
Mark Andrews
Austin Hooper
George Kittle
Tyler Higbee
Noah Fant
T.J. Hockenson
Jonnu Smith
Cole Kmet
Gerald Everett



Austin Hooper LOL.  I mean, that was just a bad call.  I thought he could end up on this list based on his second year in the system, more targets, etc.  He barely finished as a top-25 fantasy TE this year.  Wow.  Hockenson finished 13th, so I was close to getting half of this list right.  And let's be honest, for the tight end position, that's not too bad.

If you made it to the bottom of this article, congrats.  Thanks for reading, and as always feel free to hit me up on Twitter so we can keep the conversation going this offseason.  

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

2021 Fantasy Football Week 18 Rankings

I debated on whether I'd even post Week 18 rankings, but ultimately I settled on doing it.  I thought I'd take a minute to get some of my thoughts down after another fun fantasy football season, so this is going to be a much longer intro than usual.  If you're just looking for the rankings, feel free to just scroll on down.  I won't know any different!

This has been a really good year for me with the FantasyPros accuracy competition.  Because of that, I was often included in their weekly tweets for either a top-10 finish that week or a top-10 overall (which I got in and stayed in most of the second half of the season).  That gained me over 1000 new Twitter followers this year, and I truly appreciate all of the new people who have checked out my rankings and random tweets.  More than that, I've really enjoyed all of the questions, answers, discussions, etc.  I've especially loved the last minute questions when I was able to do that around 12:30pm on Sundays.  

Even though she doesn't even read my blog (!!!), I'll give a big shout out to my wife anyway because she maintained order in my house from noon-1pm nearly every Sunday this season.  It really helped me focus on those last minute rankings updates and Q&A sessions.  I hope to keep that going next year and maybe keep growing that Twitter following (tell your friends!).




Anyway, with all of the new followers, I thought there might be a handful of folks who could be playing here in Week 18.  If you are, I'll post my rankings below with a big disclaimer:

With so many teams resting players and having guys active but playing limited snaps, the rankings the final week of the regular season are very difficult to do.  

FantasyPros doesn't even include Week 18 in the accuracy competition because there's just too much variance and most fantasy leagues don't play this week.  These rankings will change a TON from now until Sunday as we find out which players will be inactive/rested.  So if you're using my rankings this week, check back before the Saturday kickoffs and then again around noon on Sunday for a final update.  I won't spend as much time on it this week as I do most weeks, but I'll still get it updated as best I can for you guys.

There's a reason the vast majority of leagues don't include Week 18 in their fantasy playoffs.  I can't imagine having someone like Joe Burrow for an entire season and scorching the EARTH the last couple of weeks only for him to sit in the most important week for fantasy because his real life team has nothing to play for.  If your league still includes Week 18, talk to your commish and get that changed ASAP.  

So with that out of the way, let me just say that whether or not you won a fantasy championship this year, I hope you had a good season and had fun.  For me, it's more about the ride than the destination (as cheesy as that sounds).  Or maybe that's just me saying it this year because I didn't actually win a championship in any of my three leagues (though I did finish second in two, ugh!).  If it surprises you that I'm only in 3 leagues...well, it's definitely by design.  I have a full time job and a family (with two kids who are ages 2 & 5).  That's a lot to keep up with.  Then on top of that I constantly update (read: obsess) over the rankings, I'm an active commish of a couple of leagues, and even just setting rosters in three leagues is a lot when I'm trying to do my usual Sunday updates.  Then there's the sports gambling side which became legal this year in my home state of Virginia, so that's a bit of a time suck too.  Maybe in the next year or two I'll get back up to 5 leagues or so, but for now I think 3 is a nice number.  

Aside from the Week 18 rankings & betting picks below, it's on to next year, right?  FantasyPros already has their 2022 rankings tool up on the site, and I started on those today.  I'll put out an "end of year review" article soon to recap some of my preseason picks, and I'll post my initial 2022 rankings in the coming weeks as well.  Then I'll be digging into the NFL Draft & free agency before you know it, and I'll get an article out with a preview on some of that stuff in a month or so.  If you're just here for the rankings, that's cool too.  But for me this is really a year round deal.  It's all fun to me.  

If you're like me and love trying to figure out and discuss how every little offseason move will impact next year's fantasy football season, you've come to the right place!