Fantasy Football 2019 End of Year Review

Last week I posted Week 17 rankings for the first time ever I think, so if you read those then you know I won my main/money/home/keeper league this year.  It obviously felt great, but it was especially nice because I lost in the playoffs the last couple of seasons by the slimmest of margins.  Last year I lost by less than a point in the semi finals, and the year before that I lost in the championship by a point and a half to the guy I beat in the finals this year.  So it was some sweet revenge for my team: Dead Kickers Society.


FantasyPros has already released next season's ranking tool, so I'll work on those in the next week or so and post a super early edition of my 2020 rankings soon.  But before we get to that, I'd like to look back at my preseason articles and see what I got right and what I got wrong.  I do this every year, and be warned: this will be a long article.  So if you have some time to kill and want to see me pat myself on the back and also point out where I totally screwed up, this is for you!

I won't recap my articles in July: "Someone to draft on all 32 teams" & "My Ideal Draft and the Worst Possible Draft", but I'll review/discuss the other three I posted after those.


RECAP: Who is this year's Zac Stacy?

I'll start with my favorite article to write each year, which is "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?"  There are several trends I've noticed in recent seasons, and I hand pick a guy to fit each category below.  It's a Q&A format that includes some of my preseason picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc.   Let's see if I got any of these right this year, shall we?

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), or Phillip Lindsay (2018)? [Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.] My preseason Answer: Damien Harris  Actual Answer: Devin Singletary Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, so they were out for this category.  David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson were drafted way too high back in August to be in the mix too, but that still left plenty of options for me to choose from.  I liked Damien Harris, but he got zero playing time with the Patriots this year.  Devin Singletary is the closest to fitting the category, but he still finished outside of the top-25 RBs in standard scoring.  But if you look at his production, he actually had a decent game in Week 2 before dealing with an injury until Week 7.  At that point, he was eased back into the offense and was a solid RB2 in Weeks 8-16, so I feel like he qualifies here.  If you held onto him through his injury/bye week, you were rewarded with a guy who certainly helped your fantasy team down the stretch.  Looking forward to next season, Frank Gore likely will finally retire (or is at least out of Buffalo since he was only on a 1 year deal).  That leaves Singletary as easily a projected top-20 RB next season, and he might even be drafted in the third or fourth round. Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), or James White (2018)? [Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.] My preseason Answer: Duke Johnson Actual Answer: Raheem Mostert I wrote this article before Lamar Miller was lost for the season, and it STILL didn't happen!  I could talk up Austin Ekeler here because he was drafted around RB27 in August, and he finished as a top-10 RB in standard scoring and top-5 in PPR.  But he didn't sneak into the top-20 like Mostert did.  Mostert flashed at times early in the year, but it was his late season run that propelled him into the top-20.  The guy had a touchdown in 6 straight games to close out the season!  So yeah, he fits the category. Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), or Calvin Ridley (2018)? [Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.] My preseason Answer: D.K. Metcalf  Actual Answer: A.J. Brown Metcalf seemed like the obvious choice because he was drafted in the double digit rounds and is tied to a future hall of fame quarterback.  He didn't have much issue passing guys like David Moore and Jaron Brown on the depth chart, and he looked like he would be the answer to this question through Week 9 or so.  But while Metcalf cooled off after his Week 11 bye, A.J. Brown did the complete opposite and exploded with Ryan Tannehill under center.  Brown had over 100 fantasy points in standard scoring during Weeks 12-17 (17 PPG average), and he ended up as a top-10 WR in that format.  I'm pretty pumped about his strong finish because I can keep him for my 9th round pick next year in my main league. Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), or Patrick Mahomes (2018)? [Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.] My preseason Answer: Lamar Jackson Actual Answer:  Lamar Jackson I obviously nailed this one, and it's crazy now to think that Lamar wasn't getting the love he deserved before the season started.  Once Jackson took over in Week 11 as the starter in 2018, he was a QB1 for the rest of his rookie season.  Obviously most people didn't think he would produce that way over the course of an entire season, but I thought he could.  It seems unbelievable in hindsight, but very few experts were talking him up as a  top-12 fantasy QB in the preseason.  But I was, so I'm going to pat myself on the back for this one,  No, I didn't say he'd finish as the best player in fantasy football this year, but did anyone?  Probably not.  If you paid attention to my Lamar love back in August, you probably also had a good season.  I know you did, Carl!  ;) Q: Who is this year's Cam Newton & Andy Dalton (2013-2014), Ben Roethlisberger (2014-2015), Carson Palmer & Cam Newton (2015-2016), Matt Ryan (2016-2017), or Carson Wentz (2017-2018? [Description: A top-5 fantasy QB who finishes outside of the top-15 the following year, and not due to a serious injury that season.] My preseason Answer: Ben Roethlisberger Actual Answer: Andrew Luck To be fair, Luck was my honorable mention because at the time I wrote the article, there was concern he might miss a handful of games to start the season.  No one saw it coming when the guy straight up RETIRED before the season started, but I suppose that fits into the category of "not due to a serious injury".  Big Ben on the other hand did miss nearly the entire season due to injury, so I'm not counting this one as a win.  Maybe I should just change the category description in 2020 because the point is, there are always QBs who finish in the top-5 one year and don't the next.  And often it's multiple guys.  Spoiler alert, next year one of them will likely be Jameis!  So just don't draft a QB early.  Don't do it.  As much as I love Lamar, just let someone else take him in the first round next year.  I realize the temptation because the dude is awesome.  But NFL teams adjust.  Guys get hurt.  Try to remember that guys like him and Mahomes were LATE round fantasy draft picks during their breakout seasons, so don't reach for them in the first couple of rounds when you should be taking RBs and WRs.  Instead, draft a guy like Kyler Murray or Josh Allen later who could end up as a top-3 QB at a way lower price. Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)? [Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2019.] My preseason Answer: Rashaad Penny Actual Answer: N/A Penny missed some time early in the season and then finally had two big games in Weeks 12 and 13 before going down against the Rams in Week 14 and landing on IR.  Derrius Guice suffered a strangely similar fate with nearly the exact same timeline, but Ronald Jones almost fit this category.  If Bruce Arians had trusted the second year back a bit more this year, he certainly could've cracked the top-20.  As it was, Jones finished outside of the top-25 in standard scoring, so none of these sophomores fit the bill in 2019.  Looking foward to 2020, maybe Damien Harris will actually get some playing time in the Pats offense and fit this category.  Maybe I was just a year early on him.  If not, keep an eye on other second year RBs like Darrell Henderson, Ryquell Armstead, and Myles Gaskin. Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), or Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018)? [Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.] My preseason Answer: Jordan Reed  Actual Answer: Darren Waller Obviously I knew this was a risky call because everyone knows Jordan Reed is never healthy, and he actually never returned after a concussion in a preseason game this year.  It's possible this guy never plays another NFL snap again, and I hope he does whatever is best for him and his family.  Anyway, Darren Waller is the clear answer here as he was typically drafted way later than Mark Andrews (who I think was drafted too highly to fit the category).  While Waller was certainly a sleeper for some after being featured on Hard Knocks, he was still undrafted in a majority of leagues.  He was quickly scooped up off waiver wires early in the season, and he was a consistent tight end at a position that was anything but consistent for most.

RECAP: Top-12 Preseason Position Predictions

The next thing I'd like to revisit are my preseason predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position.  These were NOT my rankings (which have risk, injury, RBBC considerations, and a ton of other things built into them).  These were my best case scenarios with fully healthy seasons (at least for these guys) in an attempt to predict the final top-12 at each position when you look at end of season ranks.  I've noted the picks in bold that I got right, and I have some notes below each list.


My preseason top-12 QBs
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Carson Wentz
Jared Goff 
Kirk Cousins 
Baker Mayfield 
Cam Newton 
Lamar Jackson
Aaron Rodgers 
Kyler Murray  
Matt Ryan 
Dak Prescott

Actual top-12 QBs (8 of 12 correct)
Lamar Jackson
Dak Prescott
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
Jameis Winston
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Aaron Rodgers 
Carson Wentz
Kyler Murray   
Matt Ryan
Tom Brady


Like pretty much everyone, I had Mahomes as my #1 QB in my preseason rankings, but I didn't have him there in these predictions.  No one has repeated as the #1 fantasy QB since Daunte Culpepper in 2004, and I don't think it'll happen next year either.  Prove me wrong, Lamar!

Speaking of Lamar Jackson, I said he and Kyler Murray would get so much yardage with their legs, they'd both crack this list if they play 16 games.  That was spot on.  I also had Kirk Cousins in my top-5 (who no one was talking about in the preseason).  It turns out this wasn't a terrible call because while you don't see him on the top-12 list, he was there before Week 17 (in which he didn't play), and he ended up right near the bottom of that list.  No, he didn't finish in the top-5, but this was a bold prediction about a guy who was getting virtually zero preseason talk.

Really the only miss that I feel like I should've gotten is Russell Wilson.  Outside of him, I guess Josh Allen almost fits into that Kyler Murray rushing QB category, so I'll note that for 2020.  The funny thing is, I drafted Jared Goff late in the league I won.  He was a big miss, but I picked up Jameis in the middle of the year.  He somehow carried me to the promised land.


My preseason top-12 RBs
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey 
Ezekiel Elliott
Marlon Mack 
Saquon Barkley
David Johnson 
Chris Carson
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
David Montgomery
Aaron Jones 
Kerryon Johnson

Actual top-12 RBs (7 of 12 correct)
Christian McCaffrey 
Derrick Henry
Aaron Jones
Ezekiel Elliott
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
Austin Ekeler
Mark Ingram
Chris Carson
Saquon Barkley
Joe Mixon
Todd Gurley


I didn't include guys like Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley or even James Conner in my projected top-12.  I thought all of these guys would miss a big chunk of games this season due to holdouts or injury, and I was right on 2 of the 3.  Gurley wasn't as great as he was in previous seasons, but he still had a solid RB1 year and just barely made this list.

Marlon Mack as a top-5 RB was bold, but with Luck's injury I thought it would mean even more Mack early in the year behind a great offensive line.  That part was right, and if it weren't for his own injury, Mack might've finished in the top-12.


A rookie tends to crack the top-12 every year in recent history, and I thought this year it would be Montgomery and not Josh Jacobs.  I was wrong there, but I had the right idea because Jacobs was close to a top-12 finish.  Like Mack, he likely would've been in there if not for a late season injury of his own.  Depending on his landing spot, keep an eye on J.K. Dobbins next year and potentially other rookies like Jonathan Taylor or Travis Etienne as well.

Derrick Henry was probably my biggest miss here, but he was a pretty big question mark heading into the 2019 season.  Now he's solidified himself as a first round pick in 2020 fantasy drafts.


My preseason top-12 WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Davante Adams 
DeAndre Hopkins 
Amari Cooper 
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Michael Thomas 
Tyreek Hill
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
D.J. Moore

Actual top-12 WRs (4 of 12 correct)
Michael Thomas 
Chris Godwin
Kenny Golladay
Cooper Kupp
Julio Jones
DeVante Parker
Amari Cooper 
DeAndre Hopkins 
Mike Evans
A.J. Brown
Julian Edelman
Keenan Allen

I had a couple of long shots in my preseason list, but my boldest prediction was definitely Jarvis Landry, especially because everyone seemed to be fading him this year.  He was my WR version of Kirk Cousins if you will.  I thought Baker would be able to support two top-12 WRs, but it turned out he didn't even support one.  But Landry finished better than OBJ, and he was a top-15 WR in standard scoring (just missing this list).

D.J. Moore was another interesting name on my preseason list, and he kind of turned into a star in 2019 (even without Cam).  He didn't crack the top-12, but some of that was due to being limited the last couple weeks of the season.  He ended up with 1175 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, which isn't too shabby with Kyle Allen throwing to you most of the season.  McCaffrey certainly overshadowed his season, but I'll likely pick Moore to crack my top-12 receivers again in 2020.

The fact that I only got 4 of 12 right here shows it was a bit of a crazy year for this position.  I feel like usually the RB group is less predictable, but this year it was the WR position.  Sure, I could've predicted Mike Evans and Keenan Allen in the top-12.  But the fact that JuJu, Tyreek, Adams, and OBJ all finished outside of the top-12 is kind of wild.


My preseason top-12 TEs
Travis Kelce 
Evan Engram
Zach Ertz
Vance McDonald
O.J. Howard
Hunter Henry
George Kittle
Austin Hooper
Jack Doyle  
Jordan Reed
Jared Cook 
Rob Gronkowski

Actual top-12 TEs (6 of 12 correct)
Travis Kelce 
Mark Andrews
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Zach Ertz
Jared Cook 
Austin Hooper
Hunter Henry
Tyler Higbee
Dallas Goedert
Mike Gesicki
Jason Witten


O.J. Howard and Evan Engram were huge busts for nearly every expert, but Vance McDonald in my top-5 was a big miss for me.  Big Ben screwed me twice in this piece because I also liked JuJu as my potential #1 WR this season, and that was also (partially) derailed by Ben's injury.  You may have also noticed Gronk on my list.  Yeah, that didn't happen, but whatever.  It was fun to think about, and there was speculation about it during the first 8 weeks or so of the season.

The key takeaway for me with the tight end position for 2020 is if you don't draft Kelce or Kittle early, just wait.  Getting someone like Austin Hooper in the middle rounds would be fine, but that didn't work out for O.J. Howard and Evan Engram in 2019.  So yeah, maybe just wait til the later rounds if you don't get Kelce or Kittle.



RECAP: Real Football Predictions & Bold Fantasy Predictions

Below is who I predicted to win each division and wild cards before the 2019 season started.  I also added some BOLD fantasy predictions in each division that I felt like no one was talking about in the preseason.  Let's find out together whether or not any of those were right. AFC East: New England Patriots AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers AFC South: Houston Texans AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs AFC Wild Card1: Jacksonville Jaguars AFC Wild Card2: Cleveland Browns [Chiefs over Texans in AFC Championship Game] NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles NFC North: Minnesota Vikings NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC West: LA Rams NFC Wild Card1: Dallas Cowboys NFC Wild Card2: New Orleans Saints [Rams over Cowboys in NFC Championship Game] Super Bowl Prediction: Rams over Chiefs So...wow.  I totally whiffed on the Rams this year.  I thought they'd keep rolling in that division, and the 49ers were a big surprise.  I also missed on the Packers, Seahawks and Ravens being better than I thought they'd be.  By the way, I realize the Vikings didn't win the NFC North, but I wanted to highlight the playoff teams I got right (which was half).  I actually think the Chiefs could make a run at this thing though.  Since I picked them to lose to the Rams in the Super Bowl, I'll roll with them as my Super Bowl pick.  That seems fair, right?  Again, I hope I'm wrong because obviously I'm rooting for the Ravens to win the whole thing, but I feel like I should somewhat stick to my preseason prediction. Below is my preseason commentary on my predicted standings and one BOLD prediction for each division.  I also provided results as to whether or not I got any of these right... AFC East Real Prediction: The Patriots easily win the division again (BOOOORING!).  The Jets improve and can't wait for Tom Brady to retire. Real Prediction Result: NAILED IT! (this one was easy though) BOLD Fantasy Prediction: I initially had in this spot "The Bills trade or waive Shady McCoy, and Devin Singletary finishes as the best fantasy RB for the Bills this season."  McCoy was cut before I wrote this preseason article, so that wasn't bold by that point in time.  So I went with DeVante Parker finally breaks out in Year 5 and finishes as a top-20 WR.  BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: NAILED IT! AFC North Real Prediction: The Steelers actually win the division (NOT Cleveland like everyone seems to think), and the Browns just barely get a Wild Card spot over Baltimore. Real Prediction Result: MIXED BAG  I was wrong about the Steelers over Ravens, but I think this division could've been a lot different if Ben doesn't get hurt in September.  Also I was right about the Browns not winning the division. Way too many people thought they would just magically be amazing, and I wasn't quite buying it. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: A.J. Green pulls a Doug Baldwin. He plays just a handful of games this year and retires in the offseason. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: Maybe NAILED IT?  Green sat out the entire season, so we'll see if he ever plays another snap in the NFL.  Stay tuned... AFC South Real Prediction: Watson is a legit MVP candidate and leads the Texans to win the division this year.  The Jags start of slow but ultimately grab a Wild Card spot behind their defense. Real Prediction Result: MIXED BAG  I was right about the Texans but wrong about the Jags. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Duke Johnson hits the ground running and finishes as a top-10 fantasy RB with Lamar Miller lost for the season. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: WRONG! AFC West Real Prediction: The Chargers miss the playoffs on the heels of the Melvin Gordon holdout. Real Prediction Result: NAILED IT!  Although to be honest, they missed the playoffs more so due to a ton of early season injuries on the defensive side of the ball and bad play from Rivers. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Speaking of that Melvin Gordon holdout, it lasts all season and Justin Jackson (not Austin Ekeler) finishes as a top-15 fantasy RB. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: WRONG!  But I did stash Justin Jackson for 2020 because he could be an OK (super cheap) keeper assuming Gordon is elsewhere. NFC East Real Prediction: The Eagles will win the NFC East, but the Cowboys are right behind them and grab a Wild Card spot with the same record. Real Prediction Result: MIXED BAG  The Cowboys were right behind the Eagles, but both had terrible records so the 'Boys didn't snag a Wild Card (which makes me very happy). BOLD Fantasy prediction: Carson Wentz is the #1 fantasy QB in PPG this season. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: WRONG!  But the guy did a lot with virtually no receivers most of the year.  In fact, he became the first QB in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards while having no WR over 500 yards for the season.  That's strangely impressive to me. NFC North Real Prediction: The Vikings win the division, and the Bears shockingly miss the playoffs. Real Prediction Result: MIXED BAG  The Vikings were close to winning the division (and they did get a Wild Card).  Tons of people were picking the Bears in the preseason, so I was right to say they'd miss the playoffs. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Marvin Jones finishes well ahead of Kenny Golladay in total fantasy points this season, but neither ends up in the top-15. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: EXTREMELY WRONG! NFC South Real Prediction: The Bucs surprise and win this division behind a great new coaching staff. Real Prediction Result: WRONG!  But they DID improve...this was always a bold prediction. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Alvin Kamara only misses one or two games, but Latavius Murray still finds a way to finish as a top-20 fantasy RB. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: SO CLOSE!  Kamara missed two games (Weeks 7 & 8), and Latavius had 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns in each of those games.  He didn't do a whole lot outside of those games though, and he finished as the RB30 in standard scoring.  He showed he's one of the top handcuffs in fantasy, but I thought he could be more than that this year. NFC West Real Prediction: The Rams steamroll the competition in another one bid division. Real Prediction Result: VERY WRONG! BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Everyone had been talking about Rashaad Penny breaking out in Year 2, but no one seemed to be envisioning a scenario in which Chris Carson is a top-5 fantasy RB.  I said it would happen. BOLD Fantasy Prediction Result: Almost NAILED IT!  He was top-10, not top-5.

If you've made it this far, I appreciate it.  Even if you just clicked on this page, thanks!  I'll get some 2020 rankings out soon enough, and I have a new offseason article I'm working on as well.  Until then, enjoy some playoff football!

Cheers,

Bart