Yes, I'm reverse-jinxing the HELL out of the Patriots. We'll see if it works.The FantasyPros Expert Tool has 2019 draft rankings available, so I'm taking full advantage. It's never too early to start thinking about next season, and the FantasyPros tool even has rookies available to rank. I put a few in as placeholders for now, and I'll talk about some of them along with some notes about each position.
Let's get right to it, shall we?
QBs
While I did put Mahomes in a QB tier of his own, I did not rank him in my top-24 overall. That means I'm likely not drafting him until after I've taken a RB and/or WR (or another RB) in the first two rounds. I realize the kind of season he had, but it's also going to be very difficult to replicate. Aaron Rodgers always feels like a sure thing...until he isn't. With guys like Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger available late in 2018 fantasy drafts, there will be so much value at this position later in 2019 drafts that I can't justify Mahomes in the first two rounds. I'd much rather wait and get someone like Wentz, Winston, or Baker Mayfield (all of whom I believe have top-5 upside). In fact, I have Wentz in my top-10 for next season while the ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) has him at #15. I'm lowest versus the ECR on Cam Newton (me QB15, ECR QB7) because I'm worried about that throwing shoulder of his. Whenever there's talk in January about a guy potentially missing the entire next season, he moves down my draft board.
A guy you won't even see on my QB list is Alex Smith. Sadly, I don't think he'll play this season. But we'll see. I think the Redskins will make a run at guys like Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles, but I fully expect them to end up signing someone like Tyrod Taylor. Or maybe we'll offer the Ravens a 3rd rounder for Flacco if they throw in a side of RGIII. NOTE: I hope that doesn't happen.
A couple of rookies expected to be drafted highly in April are Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray. It's also possible guys like Daniel Jones and Drew Lock are first rounders too, but they don't excite me for fantasy this season. Haskins and Murray could each be interesting if drafted highly and thrust right into starting gigs, so they both crack my top-30 QBs.
RBs
While Todd Gurley is the obvious #1 RB (and #1 overall player) in fantasy, I have Alvin Kamara hot on his heels at #2. I expect Mark Ingram to go elsewhere in free agency, and Kamara has a good shot at ending up as the best player in fantasy in 2019. Most experts have Saquon and a few others above Kamara, but not me. I'd be thrilled to get him in the middle of the first round. Le'Veon Bell barely sneaks into my top-12 RBs, but I'll end up moving him up if he lands in a good fantasy spot. But if he ends up with a team like the Jets, he might fall down my rankings ever so slightly.
One guy to keep an eye on in the coming weeks/months is Kareem Hunt. I have him easily in my top-30, while the ECR has him as the #41 RB. I just think some team will take a chance on him sooner rather than later. And while he might miss a few games due to a certain league suspension, if you get 10 games out of Kareem Hunt in a starting role, he'll probably be a top-12 RB those weeks he plays. Of course he also might not play a snap in 2019, but I don't see that happening. Time will tell.The guy I'm lowest on versus the ECR is Damien Williams (ECR RB25, my rank RB45). The Chiefs extended Williams toward the end of the 2018 season, and he played well down the stretch and in the playoffs. However, I think he's an insurance policy with Spencer Ware likely gone in free agency. I fully expect Andy Reid to draft the next Kareem Hunt on April 25th or 26th. While Josh Jacobs will likely be off the board by the time the Chiefs make a selection, Darrell Henderson or David Montgomery might be available, and I'd be all over either one in fantasy drafts if they end up in KC.
WRs
It feels weird not having Antonio Brown in my top-5 WRs, but he's been weird himself lately. His actions are going to make him hard to trust, especially if he's with a new team/quarterback. If he's back with Ben in Pittsburgh for another season, I might bump him up. We'll see how it all shakes out though. I'm really high on Tyrell Williams versus the ECR (me WR46, ECR WR77). I think he's a talented receiver, and he'll likely be on a different team next season. A fresh start doesn't always work out for WRs, but in his case, he could go from a third option to a first or second option.
As for rookies, I haven't really dug into this group much yet. The names I've consistently seen in the first round of mocks are: Marquise Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and N'Keal Harry. If any of those guys get drafted by a WR-needy team with a good QB, that would be very interesting. I'm thinking...Packers, Patriots, Colts, and Texans. Maybe even the Steelers if AB leaves town. Also if the Browns draft a WR in Round 1, I'd really like that for Baker. For now, I've ranked those 3 in my WR50-60 range.TEs
I don't have much to say about my tight end rankings versus the ECR, but one guy to keep an eye on in the offseason is Gronk. I owned him for the first time I think ever this season, and he was so frustrating. If Brady plays another year, I have to think Gronk does too. But even if he doesn't retire, he'l be hard to trust as a top-5 tight end. I don't have him anywhere near that right now.
I've actually seen a couple of tight ends in the first round of mock drafts, and they're both from the same team! T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are both leaving Iowa for the NFL, and if either lands in a good spot, I might consider them at the very end of a fantasy draft. Rookie tight ends usually don't produce right away though, so neither guy is likely to be much of a fantasy asset in 2019.
DEFs
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The Cardinals should immediately get better on defense, assuming they take Nick Bosa with the #1 overall pick. So I've bumped them up a couple spots higher than I originally had them. If the Jags and Ravens also go defense in the first couple of rounds of the draft, I might move them up with the Bears in my overall rankings. But ranking defenses in January is a pretty boring topic, isn't it? At least I won't talk about kickers though. I promise!That's it for my early rankings. I'll post an update in a month or two if there are any big changes before the draft.
Cheers,
Bart
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