Unless you're like me and have a last minute draft tomorrow night, by now you've likely drafted your fantasy teams. I sure hope that's the case because the season starts in less than 48 hours with the Falcons versus the Eagles on Thursday night. My only hope is for there to be a repeat of last year's NFL opening game when the visiting Chiefs stomped the Patriots in Foxboro. I don't know if that same scenario is likely to happen in Philly, but it's definitely possible with some key injuries for the defending Super Bowl champs.
With the NFL regular season upon us, it's time to get into the weekly
rankings. Below you'll find my best guesses for Week
1, and as usual, I'll give you some commentary after each position with a
guy I like and a guy I don't like versus the ESPN consensus (standard/non-PPR) rankings. I'll start the year off by ranking a ton of RBs and WRs, but I'll definitely narrow the list down by the time the Week 4 bye comes around. This is an early Tuesday edition of what's usually my weekly Wednesday rankings, but with my other fantasy draft tomorrow night, I thought I'd get these done a day early.
Let's get to the rankings, shall we?
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady
4.Cam Newton
5.Matthew Stafford
6.Deshaun Watson
7.Philip Rivers
8.Russell Wilson
9.Kirk Cousins
10.Andy Dalton
11.Jared Goff
12.Andrew Luck
13.Marcus Mariota
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14.Matt Ryan
15.Ben Roethlisberger
16.Alex Smith
17.Nick Foles
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18.Tyrod Taylor
19.Dak Prescott
20.Jimmy Garoppolo
 I'm high on: Andy Dalton (ESPN #17, ME #10)
Is anyone afraid of Indy's defense? I'm sure Andy Dalton isn't. He has a healthy Tyler Eifert (at least for Week 1), and that's a big reason I'm ranking him in my top-10. I also think Andrew Luck could start out fairly well, and I see this game being somewhat of a shootout. The Red Rifle is a very startable fantasy quarterback against the Colts, and A.J. Green is likely going to start the year off with a monster game.
I'm down on: Patrick Mahomes (ESPN #15, ME NOT RANKED)
Forgive me for not believing in (basically) a rookie QB on the road against one of the best defenses in the league, but I'm not ready to buy into Mahomes just yet. Everyone likes his upside/weapons, and I do too. I'd just be a little nervous about starting him against this defense in Week 1. I'd feel much better about a widely available QB like the guys I ranked 16-19.
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RBs |
1.Todd Gurley
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2.Alvin Kamara
3.David Johnson
4.Ezekiel Elliott
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5.Le'Veon Bell
6.Melvin Gordon
7.Leonard Fournette
8.Christian McCaffery
9.Kareem Hunt
10.Saquon Barkley
11.Alex Collins
12.Joe Mixon
13.Lamar Miller
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14.Devonta Freeman
15.Dalvin Cook
16.Jordan Howard
17.LeSean McCoy
18.Jay Ajayi
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19.Jamaal Williams
20.Derrick Henry
21.Royce Freeman
22.Rex Burkhead
23.Carlos Hyde
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24.Marshawn Lynch
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25.Chris Carson
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26.Kenyan Drake
27.Peyton Barber
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28.Adrian Peterson
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29.Dion Lewis
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30.Matt Breida
31.Jordan Wilkins
32.Isaiah Crowell
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33.Ty Montgomery
34.Bilal Powell
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35.Latavius Murray
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36.Tevin Coleman
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37.Alfred Morris
38.Duke Johnson
39.James White
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40.Chris Thompson
41.Devontae Booker
42.Frank Gore
43.Giovani Bernard
44.C.J. Anderson
45.Tarik Cohen
46.Ronald Jones
47.Jeremy Hill
48.LeGarrette Blount
49.Corey Clement
50.Theo Riddick
I'm high on: Latavius Murray (ESPN #47, ME #35)
I like Dalvin Cook this year, but how sure are we that he'll have a full workload Week 1 coming off a serious knee injury? I like Latavius Murray to get some carries in this game and likely all of the goal line work. That could mean 40-50 yards and a touchdown against a weak Niner defense. The Vikings could play it somewhat safe with Dalvin and could also have a decent lead against San Fran, all of which would make Latavius a sneaky FLEX option.
 I'm down on: Kerryon Johnson (ESPN #36, ME NOT RANKED)
Just like with Mahomes, I'm a little shy about ranking a rookie RB so highly in Week 1. And it's not just because he's a rookie RB. It's because he's a rookie RB who has three other RBs who are likely to be in the mix as well. This backfield situation in Detroit is so murky, I don't see how you could be confident about starting Kerryon Johnson on Monday night. Maybe he goes off like Kareem Hunt did last year, but I highly doubt it. I'd wait a couple of weeks to see how this backfield situation shakes out before plugging this rookie into my lineup. As for guys like Saquon and Royce Freeman, I'd go for it.
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WRs
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1.Antonio Brown
2.Michael Thomas
3.A.J. Green
4.DeAndre Hopkins
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5.Julio Jones
6.Davante Adams
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7.Keenan Allen
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8.Mike Evans
9.T.Y. Hilton
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10.Stefon Diggs
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11.Odell Beckham, Jr.
12.Chris Hogan
13.Larry Fitzgerald
14.Brandin Cooks
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15.Tyreek Hill
16.Golden Tate
17.Demaryius Thomas
18.Adam Thielen
19.JuJu Smith-Schuster
20.Marvin Jones
21.Doug Baldwin
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22.Jarvis Landry
23.Amari Cooper
24.Devin Funchess
25.Michael Crabtree
26.Allen Robinson
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27.Nelson Agholor
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28.Randall Cobb
29.Josh Gordon
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30.Robby Anderson
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31.Corey Davis
34.Sammy Watkins
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36.Cooper Kupp
37.Marquise Goodwin
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38.Jamison Crowder
39.Keelan Cole
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40.Robert Woods
41.Allen Hurns
42.Will Fuller
43.Tyler Lockett
44.Mike Wallace
45.Rishard Matthews
46.Pierre Garcon
47.Jordy Nelson
48.Mike Williams
49.Sterling Shepard
50.John Brown
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I'm high on: Devin Funchess (ESPN #38, ME #24)
 So everyone agrees Cam Newton will be a top-5 fantasy QB in his opener against the Cowboys, but his #1 WR is 38th? Yeah I don't get that. Greg Olsen is healthy, and the Panthers added Torrey Smith and rookie D.J. Moore. But it's Funchess who really knows this offense and is a primary option for Cam in the passing game. I like for him to get a ton of targets in this contest and easily finish in the WR2 conversation this week.
I'm down on: Robert Woods (ESPN #28, ME #40)
I'm also a little down on Cooper Kupp, but I'm high on Brandin Cooks versus the ESPN experts. This basically comes down to the fact that I don't expect all three of those WRs to be in the top-30 this week. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No, it's not. I do think the Rams will destroy Oakland on Monday Night Football, but I also think it'll be with a heavy dose of Gurley. I wouldn't count on all of these Ram receivers to produce in Week 1, and that's the problem I have with ESPN ranking all of them so highly.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Zach Ertz
3.Jimmy Graham
4.Jordan Reed
5.Delanie Walker
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6.Greg Olsen
7.Kyle Rudolph
8.Travis Kelce
9.Tyler Eifert
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10.Trey Burton
11.Evan Engram
12.David Njoku
I'm high on: Jordan Reed (ESPN #10, ME #4)
Call it a homer pick if you want, but I'm also high on Eifert. These guys have trouble staying on the field, but when they're healthy, you get them into your fantasy lineup. Alex Smith likes throwing to his tight end, and Jordan Reed is a good one. I just hope he comes out of Week 1 in one piece...
I'm down on: Travis Kelce (ESPN #2, ME #8)
I obviously don't trust Mahomes just yet, and the Chargers have a good defense. You're starting Kelce if you drafted him, but I just think #2 is a bit high for him this week.
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DEF
1.Ravens
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2.Jags
3.Lions
4.Rams
5.Saints
6.Vikings
7.Chargers
8.Broncos
9.Patriots
10.Panthers
11.Packers
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12.Titans
There's not really a fantasy defense I'm that high/low on versus the ESPN experts, but I'm sure that'll change in Week 2.
Until then, good luck to everyone in Week 1!
(Except you, Carl...)
Cheers,
Bart
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