It's time to stop thinking of Matt Ryan as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. Sure, he had a great year in 2016, setting career best marks for passing yards, TDs, QB rating, etc. But in 2015, he was barely a top-20 fantasy QB, and this year is shaping up more like 2015 (and before that) rather than 2016. And I get it. Sometimes it takes a while to realize certain big name players just aren't having a great season like you thought they would. I drafted Keenan Allen in the second round, and I continue to plug him into my lineup, hoping he'll start making some plays. He's getting the targets. He's just not doing a whole lot with them. Maybe you're doing the same with a running back like Doug Martin or Bilal Powell. They're getting plenty of touches, but they can't seem to break off big plays or find the end zone. It could be that you're hanging on to a guy like Jordan Reed and wondering if he'll ever get healthy again this season. I actually waived Kyle Rudolph on Monday and picked up a guy who I think will have a better season the rest of the way in Jared Cook. As it turns out, a couple of days later I read that
Brandon Funston agrees with that move I made!
Whatever the situation may be with those fantasy players living off their names, at some point you need to consider other options. And maybe this is the week to do it. It's the last week of the byes, trade deadlines have either come and gone or will soon, and there are only 3 GAMES LEFT until fantasy playoffs start. It's crunch time. It's time to consider plugging in that guy on your bench (or even the waiver wire) who has had some big games lately. I'm looking at you Crowell, JuJu, and Marqise Lee. I see you hiding over there, Jeremy Maclin! And yes, please bench Matt Ryan for Jared Goff...or at least for Alex Smith at this point, right?! I sure would.
To the rankings!
BYE: Carolina, Indianapolis, NY Jets, San Francisco
QBs
1.Tom Brady
2.Carson Wentz
3.Russell Wilson
4.Drew Brees
5.Alex Smith
6.Dak Prescott
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Derek Carr
9.Jared Goff
10.Ben Roethlisberger
11.Kirk Cousins
12.Matt Ryan
13.Eli Manning
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14.Case Keenum
15.Philip Rivers
I was spot on with both of my QB picks versus the ESPN experts for the THIRD week in a row. I was down on Matt Ryan versus the experts (ESPN #4, ME #11) for probably the 10th time in 10 weeks (but who's counting)? He still hasn't finished in the top-5 fantasy QBs in any week...ALL SEASON. He had another mediocre day at the office and finished as the #15 fantasy QB in Week 10. I was high on Jared Goff (ESPN #10, ME #5), who I said wouldn't quite match his 4 touchdown total from Week 9 but would come close. I was right there too, and Goff finished as the #2 QB behind Cam Newton, who went off on Monday Night Football. I'm still a little higher on Goff versus the experts, but they seem to be coming around on not ranking Matt Ryan in their top-10. I'm not higher/lower on any guys versus the experts more than a couple of spots this week, so I won't have any comparisons at the QB position this time around.
 On a personal note, after losing Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston to injury in the same week, I struggled with my QB pick in Week 10. I ended up going with Eli over Rivers, and it turned out to be the right call (even if just by a couple of points). I'm still in 4th place in my league and still with the most points scored, but that gap is closing. I'm rolling with Manning again and hoping he can throw for a couple of scores. If not, then maybe my RBs can pick up the slack. I have Bell, Hunt & Howard - all in my top-10 this week... |
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RBs |
1.Le'Veon Bell
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2.Mark Ingram
3.Kareem Hunt
4.LeSean McCoy
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5.Todd Gurley
6.Leonard Fournette
7.Alvin Kamara
8.Melvin Gordon
9.Jordan Howard
10.Lamar Miller
11.DeMarco Murray
12.Adrian Peterson
13.Tevin Coleman
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14.Jay Ajayi
15.Isaiah Crowell
16.Jerick McKinnon
17.Marshawn Lynch
18.Kenyan Drake
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19.Joe Mixon
20.Orleans Darkwa
21.Dion Lewis
22.Doug Martin
23.Ameer Adbullah
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24.Alfred Morris
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25.Chris Thompson
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26.Latavius Murray
27.C.J. Anderson
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28.Jamaal Williams
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29.Rex Burkhead
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30.Samaje Perine
31.Alex Collins
32.Thomas Rawls
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33.Derrick Henry
34.Duke Johnson
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35.Theo Riddick
36.J.D. McKissic
37.Austin Ekeler
38.Javorius Allen
39.James White
40.Rod Smith
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I had huge discrepancies with my two RB picks versus the ESPN experts last week, as I was high on Ty Montgomery (ESPN #41, ME #25) and down on Chris Thompson (ESPN #18, ME #38). However, both players were impacted by injuries during their games, so it's kind of hard to say that I nailed both of these picks (even though I kinda did). Aaron Jones left the Packers game early, and Montgomery went on to finish as a top-12 RB before then exiting the game himself with a rib injury. Jones is definitely out this week, but I think Montgomery is unlikely to play and I'm not ranking him either. Meanwhile in the Redskins/Vikings game, Rob Kelley left early after injuring his knee and ankle on the same play, which gave Chris Thompson (and Samaje Perine) even more touches. Thompson finished outside of the top-30 though, even with Kelley out of the game. He still feels like more of a FLEX play than an RB2, and I even considered ranking Perine ahead of Thompson this week against the Saints. I'm still down on Thompson versus the experts (ESPN #17, ME #25), but I'm not really down on many other RBs this week when compared to their rankings. I'll go deep to give you a guy I kinda like toward the end of my list though.
I'm high on: J.D. McKissic (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #36)
 If you're looking for a guy who could save you on Monday Night Football this week, McKissic could be that Hail Mary you need to win your matchup. Sure, Thomas Rawls will get the start and probably most of the touches out of the backfield. But C.J. Prosise is back on the IR, and Lacy is probably still out with a groin injury. That leaves just Rawls and McKissic to share duties, and the latter will get a lot of work on passing downs. In case you hadn't noticed, the Seahawks pass the ball...a lot. But not one of the ESPN experts ranked McKissic in their top-50! OK. Matthew Berry did in his PPR rankings, but I think McKissic could rack up yardage and be viable as a deep FLEX play in a standard league too!
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WRs
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1.Antonio Brown
2.Michael Thomas
3.Julio Jones
4.Mike Evans
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5.Doug Baldwin
6.Tyreek Hill
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7.Adam Thielen
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8.A.J. Green
9.Brandin Cooks
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10.DeAndre Hopkins
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11.Michael Crabtree
12.Sterling Shepard
13.Dez Bryant
14.Alshon Jeffery
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15.Golden Tate
16.Stefon Diggs
17.JuJu Smith-Schuster
18.Larry Fitzgerald
19.Robert Woods
20.Amari Cooper
21.Demaryius Thomas
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22.Marqise Lee
23.Jarvis Landry
24.Emmanuel Sanders
25.DeVante Parker
26.Keenan Allen
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27.Davante Adams
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28.Jamison Crowder
29.Jeremy Maclin
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30.Ted Ginn, Jr.
31.Corey Davis
32.Marvin Jones, Jr.
33.DeSean Jackson
34.Nelson Agholor
35.Rishard Matthews
36.Mohamed Sanu
37.Sammy Watkins
38.Mike Wallace
39.Josh Doctson
40.Bruce Ellington
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Last week I was 1 for 2 with my WR picks versus the ESPN experts. I liked Paul Richardson on Thursday night (ESPN #39, ME #24), but he only had one big catch for 43 yards and ended up outside of the top-50 WRs. But also outside of the top-50 was Jordy Nelson (ESPN #21, ME #36), who I was way down on versus the experts. He ended up with just 3 catches for 20 yards and has now finished outside of the top-50 WRs for THREE GAMES STRAIGHT! I'm not ranking either guy in my top-40 this week, but both are right there on the fringe. For the record, ESPN still has Jordy at #32 in their NPPR WR rankings. Come on, guys...
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I'm high on: JuJu Smith-Schuster (ESPN #27, ME #17)
I usually don't like to pick guys from my personal matchup for comparisons versus the ESPN experts. It just feels like I'm hedging or something. Against what? I don't know. Anyway, this week I'm going for it with both of my WR picks. JuJu has been amazing since given a real opportunity a few weeks ago, and he's now scored in each of his last 3 games. Tennessee's secondary is suspect at best, and I don't see why the rookie won't keep his scoring streak alive tomorrow night.
 I'm down on: Keenan Allen (ESPN #12, ME #26)
On the flipside, I'm down on a guy who I've been plugging into my own lineup each and every week. Keenan Allen has been frustrating to own this year because he's top-12 in targets & receptions, and he's pretty close in the receiving yards category too. Yet he's found the endzone just once all season and ranks outside of the top-30 WRs in standard leagues. I hope he gets things going down the stretch because I'll likely keep playing him, but I can't continue ranking him as a WR1 like ESPN does. |
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TEs
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1.Travis Kelce
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2.Zach Ertz
3.Evan Engram
4.Rob Gronkowski
5.Jimmy Graham
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6.Jared Cook
7.Tyler Kroft
8.Vernon Davis
9.Kyle Rudolph
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10.Austin Hooper
11.Delanie Walker
12.Jason Witten
 I'm high on: Tyler Kroft (ESPN #15, ME #7)
For the last month or so, there haven't really been any differences between my TE list and ESPN's. But this week is different! I'm actually really high on Tyler Kroft, who is facing a Denver defense that gets torched by tight ends. And speaking of the last month of so, the Broncos have given up the MOST fantasy points to opposing tight ends during that time and the 2nd most to the position on the season. Kroft is coming off his worst game since early in the year, but he did have 6 targets against Tennessee. I think Kroft has a floor of around 50 receiving yards, and a touchdown would easily put him in the top-5 this week.
I'm down on: Delanie Walker (ESPN #6, ME #11)
I'm also down on Jordan Reed because I'm skeptical that he'll even play against the Saints on Sunday, but let me talk about a guy who will certainly play tomorrow night. Delanie Walker is one of those tight ends that the ESPN experts always rank in their top-10 no matter what the matchup or really how he's playing (see also: Kyle Rudolph). But Walker hasn't had a receiving touchdown all year, and he hasn't had double-digit fantasy points since Week 2. Pittsburgh is giving up the 3rd fewest points to the TE position this year, and I think Walker could be a bit of a dud on Thursday Night Football.
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DEF
1.Jaguars
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2.Lions
3.Ravens
4.Steelers
5.Saints
6.Cardinals
7.Chargers
8.Chiefs
9.Bengals
10.Texans
11.Seahawks
12.Eagles
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Last week I kinda whiffed on my defenses. I was high on the Pittsburgh Steelers (ESPN #8, ME #2) and down on the New Orleans Saints (ESPN #9 ME NOT RANKED). Both defenses were solid but not spectacular, and it was the Saints who actually finished just ahead of the Steelers in Week 10. Both are in my top-5 this week and are becoming "must starts" in my opinion. I'm high on both of them versus the experts this week, and I'm down on units like the Rams and Broncos. I don't have either in my top-12 because the Rams have a tough matchup, and Denver hasn't looked like a top-10 defense lately. It's a nice home matchup against the Bengals, but I'd still have a hard time trusting this defense right now.
Good luck to everyone in Week 11!
(Except you, Lasagna...)
Cheers,
Bart
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