Wednesday, September 20, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

Image result for jordan howard bearsRemember last week when I said you should try not to overreact because it's just one week?  Well, as a Jordan Howard owner, I'm starting to freak out a little.  Meanwhile, Ty Montgomery continues to crush it (he was another potential keeper of mine).  But hey, it's just TWO weeks, right...? 

RIGHT?!?

Tell that to Greg Olsen owners (my wife is one of them).  Ol' Greg with the Third Leg is now going to miss a couple of months with a broken foot.  In fact, Week 2 also claimed tight ends Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, and Tyler Eifert to various injuries.  It looks like some or all of them may play this week, but it was a rough week for the position. 

Injuries are part of the game though, right?  Get over it, and let's do the rankings!

QBs
1.Tom Brady  
2.Aaron Rodgers
3.Matt Ryan 
4.Derek Carr
5.Matthew Stafford
6.Cam Newton
7.Ben Roethlisberger   
8.Drew Bree 
9.Carson Wentz 
10.Russell Wilson  
11.Dak Prescott  
12.Philip Rivers
13.Marcus Mariota
14.Jameis Winston
15.Kirk Cousins
16.Trevor Siemian 
17.Alex Smith
18.Carson Palmer
19.DeShone Kizer 
20.Tyrod Taylor 

For the second week in a row, the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 QB.  But you know what?  Carson Wentz (ESPN #19, ME NOT RANKED) was barely a top-20 fantasy QB until the last 8 seconds of that game in Kansas City.  I know garbage time points count, but that was a killer for my prediction.  As for Big Ben (ESPN #13, ME #8), I said not to worry about the Viking defense and focus on Ben's amazing stats at home in the last couple of seasons.  I said he'd easily be a top-10 fantasy QB for the second week in a row, and he was (7th).

Image result for carson wentz eaglesI'm high on: Carson Wentz (ESPN #16, ME #9) 
What a difference a week makes, right?  Obviously I realize Wentz was a borderline QB2 until the end of the game at Arrowhead (as I mentioned), but he's in Philly this week for the first time this season.  He has also thrown for over 300 yards and 2 TDs in each of his first two games.  All of his receivers are healthy, and the Eagles seem like they don't care to use Blount at all.  Stafford had 2 TDs at MetLife Stadium in the first half last Monday night before the Lions decided to run the ball and kill the clock for basically the entire second half.  I think this game will be close, and I think Wentz will be a top-10 QB against the Giants in Week 3.

I'm down on: Kirk Cousins (ESPN #8, ME #15) 
Obviously I hope I'm wrong here, but Kirk is a notoriously slow starter, and 2017 looks to be no different.  He's not even a top-20 fantasy QB through 2 games, and I don't see how you can trust him, even against a Raider defense that is giving up top-10 fantasy points to opposing QBs so far this season.  The Redskins appeared committed to running the football against the Rams, and I don't think this Sunday will be any different.  I think Kirk will once again finish outside of the top-10.

RBs
1.Le'Veon Bell  
2.Jay Ajayi  
3.Kareem Hunt 
4.Ty Montgomery 
5.Todd Gurley 
6.Melvin Gordon
7.Devonta Freeman
8.Ezekiel Elliott
9.LeSean McCoy 
10.Carlos Hyde
11.C.J. Anderson     
12.Mike Gillislee  
13.Leonard Fournette 
14.Marshawn Lynch
15.Isaiah Crowell 
16.Dalvin Cook  
17.Lamar Miller
18.Jacquizz Rodgers   
19.Javorius Allen  
20.Ameer Abdullah 
21.DeMarco Murray
22.Chris Carson 
23.Christian McCaffery  
24.Frank Gore 
25.Tarik Cohen
26.Jonathan Stewart 
27.Mark Ingram  
28.Tevin Coleman
29.James White 
30.Jordan Howard
31.Chris Thompson
32.Derrick Henry
33.Darren Sproles 
34.Terrance West
35.Rob Kelley
36.Chris Johnson   
37.Theo Riddick  
38.D'Onta Foreman   
39.Bilal Powell
40.Joe Mixon
41.Matt Forte
42.Paul Perkins 
43.Duke Johnson  
44.Kerwynn Williams
45.LeGarrette Blount    
46.Jalen Richard
47.Shane Vereen
48.Jamaal Charles 
49.Alvin Kamara 
50.Samaje Perine

I stayed down on Christian McCaffery & Joe Mixon versus the ESPN experts in Week 2, and both ended up outside of the top-40 fantasy RBs.  But instead of talking about them for the second week in a row, I gave you someone else I was down on: Mark Ingram (ESPN #23, ME #34).  I discussed how this backfield looks like a 3-headed monster at the moment (not too dissimilar from the Bengal backfield), and I said you should try to hold off on starting any New Orleans running back until things get more clear.  I thought Ingram would easily fall outside of RB2 territory in Week 2, and he did (29th).  I still have him right around that top-30 area, but it'll be hard to trust him beyond a FLEX play until the Saints start using him more.

Last week I was high on Kerwynn Williams (ESPN #36, ME #22), who was a "total dud in what appeared to be a favorable matchup" (via Rotoworld).  He wasn't anywhere near where I ranked him, and he even fell outside of the top-50 fantasy RBs in Week 2.  Now it looks like Chris Johnson could get a crack at lead back duties on Monday night, but we shall see.  Right now I have CJ ranked ahead of Kerwynn, but neither will be easy to start until the Cardinals get their running game going.

I'm high on: D'Onta Foreman (ESPN #50, ME #38)
Image result for d'onta foreman texansRather than talk up someone in my top-20 (but not ESPN's) like Jacquizz Rodgers, I'm going somewhat off the radar here in Week 3 with Foreman.  I think this game could get out of hand in New England, and I have a feeling the rookie will get a lot of burn in the second half.  I'm not saying he overtakes Lamar Miller for the starting job this early in the season, but I think he'll rack up some garbage time points and could end up as a decent FLEX play in Week 3 at Foxboro.

I'm down on: Jordan Howard (ESPN #16, ME #30)
Like I said, I'm worried.  Maybe I'm overreacting here, but I don't think so.  I'm probably going to start Javorius "Buck" Allen at my FLEX spot over Howard, so yeah, I'm benching him.  He was fine Week 1, but mostly because he scored.  Week 2 was horrendous, and he's dealing with a shoulder injury.  I'm sitting him until further notice.

WRs
1.Antonio Brown 
2.Julio Jones
3.Mike Evans  
4.A.J. Green 
5.Jordy Nelson
6.Odell Beckham, Jr.
7.Michael Thomas 
8.DeAndre Hopkins  
9.Kelvin Benjamin
10.Keenan Allen 
11.Doug Baldwin  
12.Michael Crabtree  
13.Dez Bryant 
14.Amari Cooper
15.Alshon Jeffery
16.Tyreek Hill 
17.Davante Adams 
18.Brandin Cooks
19.Golden Tate 
20.Martavis Bryant 
21.Emmanuel Sanders  
22.DeVante Parker 
23.Stefon Diggs 
24.Demaryius Thomas 
25.Jeremy Macli
26.Terrelle Pryor 
27.Jarvis Landry 
28.Larry Fitzgerald  
29.Chris Hogan
30.J.J. Nelson  
31.T.Y. Hilton  
32.Adam Thielen 
33.Jamison Crowder 
34.Randall Cobb 
35.Rishard Matthews 
36.Marqise Lee
37.Pierre Garcon 
38.Tyrell Williams 
39.Jermaine Kearse 
40.Devin Funchess  
41.Rashard Higgins
42.Marvin Jones 
43.DeSean Jackson
44.Cooper Kupp
45.Paul Richardson 
46.Sammy Watkins  
47.Ted Ginn
48.Mohamed Sanu 
49.Allen Hurns 
50.Jaron Brown

I had high expectations for Martavis Bryant in his first game in a year (ESPN #28, ME #18), but he didn't do much in Cleveland in Week 1.  Of course I was just a week off from my prediction with him, as he was a top-10 fantasy receiver in Week 2.  Speaking of Week 2, I was high on Jeremy Maclin (ESPN #29, ME #19), who scored for the second week in a row and finished right at the 19th-best fantasy WR where I ranked him!

I was down on Jarvis Landry (ESPN #21, ME #33), who I didn't like as much as DaVante Parker in this game.  Even though the targets were there for Landry, it turns out I was right because Parker finished in the top-25 and Landry did not (he finished 31st, right about where I ranked him).  I STILL like Parker more than Landry, but the ESPN consensus has Landry higher.  I'll talk about someone else this week though...

Image result for kelvin benjaminI'm high on: Kelvin Benjamin (ESPN #24, ME #9)
None of the ESPN experts ranked Kelvin as a WR1 this week, but I sure did.  He faces a Saints defense who gave up the most fantasy points to a WR in Week 1 (Diggs) and the 11th most last week (Hogan).  Someone for Carolina is going to put up numbers against this secondary this week, and I think that'll be Benjamin.

I'm down on: Larry Fitzgerald (ESPN #10, ME #28)
Sure, he has 19 targets in 2 games.  But he also has less than 10 fantasy points combined in those two games.  How is he a top-10 WR in Week 3?!?  I actually considered ranking J.J. Nelson ahead of him this week (but I didn't).  Either way, my ranking of Larry versus the ESPN experts was way different this week.  I'd still start him at FLEX if I owned him, but I don't see him as a WR1.

TEs
1.Travis Kelce
2.Rob Gronkowski
3.Zach Ertz
4.Jordan Reed
5.Kyle Rudolph
6.Delanie Walker
7.Martellus Bennett 
8.Jason Witten 
9.Eric Ebron  
10.Jack Doyle 
11.Coby Fleener 
12.Hunter Henry
13.Benjamin Watson 
14.Jared Cook 
15.Evan Engram

In Week 1, I was quite a bit higher than the experts on Charles Clay (ESPN #21, ME #13).  That worked out pretty well, as Clay finished as a top-5 fantasy tight end.  Last week I didn't adjust my top-10 much, and my top-15 was essentially the same as ESPN's.  But with Eifert & Graham likely out this week, I'd say my TE rankings have shaken up quite a bit.  I'll go ahead and give a guy I'm high/down on versus the experts...

Image result for benjamin watsonI'm high on: Benjamin Watson (ESPN #21, ME #13)
The 36 year old didn't do much in Week 1, but that was his first real game after a season ending Achilles injury.  Week 2 was a different story, where Watson caught 8 of 8 targets for 91 yards.  He led the Ravens in basically every receiving category, and he should be a big part of this offense as long as he's healthy.  If you are dealing with an injured TE in Week 3, I'd roll Watson out there with confidence.


I'm down on: Jimmy Graham (ESPN #7, ME NOT RANKED)
Even if he does play, what has he done so far this season?  Not much!  The guys is banged up, and no way would I trust him as a top-10 fantasy TE at Tennessee.  Field Yates is the only ESPN analyst who ranked Graham outside of his top-15 TEs, and I'm with you, man.  What are these other guys thinking?!?

DEF
1.Ravens
2.Broncos 
3.Steeler 
4.Chiefs
5.Cardinals  
6.Dolphins  
7.Eagles 
8.Rams 
9.Patriots
10.Vikings 
11.Seahawks  
12.Panthers  

I was down on the Bengals for the second week in a row (ESPN #4, ME NOT RANKED).  Cincy was in the bottom half of fantasy defenses in Week 1 (when ESPN ranked them a consensus 10th).  Then the experts decided to make them a top-5 fantasy defense on Thursday night, and I didn't get it.  Turns out I was right.  I said I thought Deshaun Watson would manage the game well and not turn the ball over like so many rookies tend to do, and he did just that.  The Bengals forced ZERO turnovers and were in the bottom half of fantasy defenses for the second week in a row.  Nice to see the ESPN experts finally ranked Cincinnati near the bottom of the list as they travel to Green Bay this week...

I was high on the Bucs (ESPN #15, ME #9), as I thought they'd win big at home against the Bears after having Week 1 off due to Hurricane Irma, and I liked their defense to make some big plays.  I'd say a 47-yard Pick 6 counts as a big play, and Tampa Bay actually finished as the NUMBER 1 fantasy defense in Week 2!!!

Image result for arizona cardinals defenseI'm high on: Arizona Cardinals (ESPN #20, ME #5)
The Cardinals opened the season with two road games, and the defense wasn't too bad.  They gave up a lot of points to the Lions in Week 1, but only 15 points heading into the 4th quarter.  And at Indy in Week 2, they only gave up 13 points.  Meanwhile, Dallas has scored less than 20 points in each of their first two games.  I don't see that changing for Arizona's home opener, and I like for the Cardinals to dominate this game and maybe even have a D/ST touchdown in this one.

I'm down on: Jacksonville Jaguars (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED) 
This game is in London, and I guess Jacksonville is sort of the home team there now?  But whatever.  Baltimore is playing well to start the season, and I don't see the Jags doing well against them across the pond.  I realize they changed their Twitter handle to #Saxsonville after they got 10 sacks in Week 1, but then they only had ONE in Week 2.  I think this defense is pedestrian, and I don't see them as a top-10 unit this week against the Ravens.

Good luck to everyone in Week 3!  
(Except you, Bird...)

Cheers,
Bart

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