Wednesday, September 27, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

So Week 3 was weird...

The Ravens lost to the Jags in London 44-7.  My Redskins flat out DOMINATED the Raiders on Sunday night.  The Steelers lost to the Bears.  Oh, and the Jets won.

All of that simply to set the table for the fact that some of my picks were a little off last week.  And by "some" I mean "most".  And by "most" I mean "all but two".

Image result for kirk cousinsLet's see, my picks for QB, WR, and DEF were all way off.  I had Kelvin Benjamin pegged as a top-10 WR against the Saints, but he left the game early with an injury after only catching 2 balls (hehe).  I was down on Larry Fitzgerald, who was a top-5 fantasy WR on Monday Night Football.  I didn't rank the Jags D in my top-12 (wrong!), and I liked Arizona D against the Cowboys, but the Cardinals ended up as one of the worst options for the week.  I was down so much on Jordan Howard that I decided not to play him in my league (he ended up as the #2 RB).  Luckily for me, I still won my matchup regardless of Howard having 164 yards from scrimmage and 2 scores...on my bench.

I did hit on a couple of picks though (again, a couple = 2).  D'Onta Foreman (ESPN #50, ME #38) was a deep pick I had as a potential FLEX play, and he actually finished as a top-25 RB.  Ben Watson (ESPN #21, ME #13) saved me with a late TD from Ryan Mallett to finish as the #13 fantasy TE in Week 3 (right where I ranked him).

But as you can see, the rest of my picks were pretty bad, so I thought I'd just get them out of the way early.  That's not to say my entire rankings were off - just my handful of picks versus the ESPN experts at each position.  Hopefully I can bounce back and do a better job here in Week 4.

Speaking of this week, let's move on and get to the rankings!

QBs
1.Aaron Rodger
2.Tom Brady 
3.Drew Bree               
4.Russell Wilson   
5.Matt Ryan
6.Dak Prescott 
7.Carson Palmer
8.Marcus Mariota
9.Trevor Siemian
10.Philip Rivers   
11.Kirk Cousins 
12.Matthew Stafford
13.Alex Smith 
14.Jameis Winston
15.Tyrod Taylor  
16.Andy Dalton 
17.Carson Wentz  
18.Ben Roethlisberger 
19.Derek Carr
20.Deshaun Watson

It's now three weeks in a row that the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 QB.  I didn't mind since this time since it was Kirk Cousins (ESPN #8, ME #15), who wasn't even a top-20 fantasy QB through 2 games.  He smoked the Raiders at home, but I'm staying down on him this week (relative to the experts) as the Redskins travel to Kansas City.  I'll give you someone else I'm down on though because I don't want to badmouth my team's QB two weeks in a row.

I'm high on: Trevor Siemian (ESPN #16, ME #9)
Here's a name that doesn't look like it belongs in the top-10, right?  The thing is, it was tough ranking the QBs after the top-5 this week.  After that, it feels like a bit of a crapshoot.  So why not roll with Siemian here?!?  He's been a top-10 fantasy QB through 3 weeks, and he faces an Oakland team that is giving up top-5 numbers to opposing signal callers.  Siemian had a rough go of it last week in Buffalo, but now he goes back to Denver where he had multiple touchdowns in each of his first two games this season.

Image result for cam newtonI'm down on: Cam Newton (ESPN #17, ME NOT RANKED
Cam's best game through three weeks came in San Fran in Week 1 in which he threw for 171 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception.  Since then he has ZERO passing TDs and 3 picks.  Yikes!  He doesn't have Greg Olsen to throw to, and now Kelvin Benjamin is banged up.  The Patriots are giving up a lot of fantasy points to opposing QBs, but so are the Saints and Cam had a terrible game against them last week.  I don't see how you can rank him as a top-20 fantasy QB until he does more than he's doing right now.  Sam Bradford almost has as many fantasy points as Cam, and Bradford has only played in one game this season!

RBs
1.Kareem Hunt  
2.Ezekiel Elliott 
3.Le'Veon Bell 
4.Todd Gurley  
5.Devonta Freeman
6.Jay Ajayi 
7.LeSean McCoy 
8.Dalvin Cook 
9.Melvin Gordon
10.Leonard Fournette 
11.Ty Montgomery    
12.Carlos Hyde 
13.Jordan Howard  
14.Chris Carson   
15.C.J. Anderson  
16.DeMarco Murray
17.Joe Mixon 
18.Christian McCaffer
19.Lamar Miller     
20.Jacquizz Rodgers     
21.Mike Gillislee  
22.Javorius Allen 
23.Marshawn Lynch
24.Chris Thompson      
25.Tarik Cohen
26.Isaiah Crowell
27.Mark Ingram 
28.Frank Gore   
29.Ameer Abdullah 
30.Derrick Henry
31.Jonathan Stewart 
32.Tevin Coleman 
33.Duke Johnson 
34.LeGarrette Blount 
35.Bilal Powel 
36.Rob Kelley 
37.Chris Johnson 
38.James White  
39.Theo Riddick 
40.Wendell Smallwood 
41.Jamaal Charles 
42.Alvin Kamara 
43.D'Onta Foreman 
44.Giovani Bernard
45.Elijah McGuire
46.Paul Perkins
47.Andre Ellington 
48.Jalen Richard
49.Chris Ivory
50.Mike Tolbert

I'm high on: Derrick Henry (ESPN #42, ME #30)
Image result for derrick henryHenry and DeMarco are virtually in a 50/50 split behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  I don't see how you can rank Murray as a top-20 guy and Henry outside of the top-40!  It doesn't make sense to me, which is why I have Derrick as a solid FLEX play here in Week 4.
I'm down on: Wendell Smallwood (ESPN #31, ME #40)
Let's talk about the latest waiver wire darling in Wendell Smallwood.  It may seem like a small difference (9 spots), but I'm not really down on anyone more than that versus the experts this week.  With Sproles now lost for the season, Smallwood finds himself in a three way RBBC with Blount and rookie Corey Clement.  Oh you forgot about Clement, did you?  He was the guy with the highlight reel TD toward the end of the game last week.  Blount was the other Philly RB to find the endzone in Week 3.  Do you know who didn't score against the Giants?  You got it: Smallwood.  All three of these backs will get touches against the Chargers, and I actually like Blount more than either of the other two this week.  But I don't see how you can rank Smallwood this highly just yet.  In fact, I didn't put in a waiver claim for him because I'm not convinced Clement doesn't run away with the job in the next couple of weeks...

WRs
1.Odell Beckham, Jr.   
2.Antonio Brown 
3.A.J. Green  
4.Jordy Nelson  
5.Julio Jones 
6.Michael Thomas
7.Doug Baldwin 
8.Mike Evans 
9.DeAndre Hopkins          
10.Brandin Cooks 
11.Stefon Diggs
12.Tyreek Hill   
13.Larry Fitzgerald 
14.Emmanuel Sanders  
15.DeVante Parker 
16.Dez Bryant 
17.Demaryius Thomas 
18.Golden Tate 
19.Keenan Allen
20.Davante Adams 
21.Sammy Watkins
22.Jarvis Landry 
23.Kelvin Benjamin 
24.Amari Cooper
25.Alshon Jeffery 
26.Adam Thielen 
27.Rishard Matthews
28.Chris Hogan  
29.T.Y. Hilton   
30.Michael Crabtree   
31.Marqise Lee
32.DeSean Jackson
33.Randall Cobb
34.Martavis Bryant 
35.Jamison Crowder  
36.Mohamed Sanu 
37.Kenny Stills  
38.Jeremy Maclin   
39.Terrelle Pryo   
40.Sterling Shepard 
41.Pierre Garcon  
42.Allen Hurns 
43.Paul Richardson 
44.Jordan Matthews  
45.Devin Funchess
46.Willie Snead
47.J.J. Nelson 
48.Danny Amendola  
49.Eric Decker
50.Travis Benjamin

I'm high on: Kenny Stills (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #37)
Last season, I felt like I talked Stills up a lot versus the ESPN experts.  It's a new season, but still no respect for Kenny from the experts.  He's the type of player who relies on the big play to be successful, but this season he's also in the top-30 fantasy WRs for targets per game.  Yes, it's a small sample size.  But combine his playmaking ability with 5-10 targets...against the Saints?  How do you not rank him?!?

Image result for pierre garconI'm down on: Pierre Garcon (ESPN #23, ME #41)
I saw what he did last Thursday against the Rams, and I actually like Garcon a lot for the season.  I think he'll end up as a top-25 WR.  Just not this week.  And why do I think that?  Two words: Patrick Peterson.  Peterson has SHUT DOWN opposing WRs this season (like every season), and you really should account for him when doing your WR rankings.  OK.  Dez scored a TD last week.  But he had 2 catches for 12 yards!  I'll pass on Garcon against Arizona.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Jimmy Graham
5.Delanie Walker
6.Kyle Rudolph
7.Evan Engram
8.Jason Witten
9.Charles Clay
10.Martellus Bennett 
11.Jared Cook  
12.Eric Ebron
13.Benjamin Watson 
14.Jack Doyle
15.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 

I'm not ranking Jordan Reed this week because he didn't play in Week 3, and his status for Week 4 is still up in the air.  Also, the Redskins play on Monday night.  If I owned Reed, I'd make other plans and go ahead and start someone before Monday.  Of course you could always pick up Vernon Davis and play him, but I'm not sure he'll be a top-15 option at Kansas City.  I'm not really down on anyone this week versus the ESPN experts (other than Reed who they ranked 8th and I didn't rank due to his injury), but I will give you someone I like a lot...

I'm high on: Evan Engram (ESPN #12, ME #7)
Image result for evan engramThe ESPN experts are still giving no love to Ben Watson, but I'd rather not talk him up for the 3rd week in a row.  I'd like to take the time to mention Engram, a rookie who has the 11th most fantasy points and 6th most targets among all tight ends through 3 weeks.  Now he travels to Tampa, where the Bucs haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to the position this year.  But they've also only played two games.  They shut down Kyle Rudolph last week, but Zach Miller had a decent game against them in Week 2.  I like for Eli to continue to throw to his TE and for Engram to make some plays this week.

DEF
1.Seahawks 
2.Jaguars  
3.Cardinals 
4.Chiefs
5.Bengals 
6.Packers  
7.Broncos
8.Steeler
9.Patriots 
10.Lions 
11.Ravens 
12.Vikings

Image result for case keenumI'm high on: Detroit Lions (ESPN #19, ME #10)
Can Case Keenum put it all together for two weeks in a row?  In a word..."no".  The Lions are the #1 fantasy defense in my league (based on our scoring system) through 3 weeks, and I don't see Minnesota's O-line slowing them down.  I like Detroit as a top-10 fantasy defense this week, but the ESPN experts do NOT.

I'm down on: Houston Texans (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) 
One ESPN expert has the Texans as high as 5th this week, and I don't get it.  They're hosting the Titans, who have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season.  Meanwhile, the Texans have given up nearly 25 points per game, which includes 29 points in a loss to Jacksonville at home in Week 1!  I don't think this week will be any better, and I think Tennessee will take care of the ball and put up at least 30 on the Texans.

Good luck to everyone in Week 4!  
(Except you, David...)

Cheers,
Bart