So Week 3 was weird...
The Ravens lost to the Jags in London 44-7. My Redskins flat out DOMINATED the Raiders on Sunday night. The Steelers lost to the Bears. Oh, and the Jets won.
All of that simply to set the table for the fact that some of my picks were a little off last week. And by "some" I mean "most". And by "most" I mean "all but two".
Let's see, my picks for QB, WR, and DEF were all
way off. I had Kelvin Benjamin pegged as a top-10 WR against the Saints, but he left the game early with an injury after only catching 2 balls (hehe). I was down on Larry Fitzgerald, who was a top-5 fantasy WR on Monday Night Football. I didn't rank the Jags D in my top-12 (wrong!), and I liked Arizona D against the Cowboys, but the Cardinals ended up as one of the worst options for the week. I was down so much on Jordan Howard that I decided not to play him in my league (he ended up as the #2 RB). Luckily for me, I still won my matchup regardless of Howard having 164 yards from scrimmage and 2 scores...on my bench.
I did hit on a couple of picks though (again, a couple = 2). D'Onta Foreman
(ESPN #50, ME #38) was a deep pick I had as a potential FLEX play, and he actually finished as a top-25 RB. Ben Watson
(ESPN #21, ME #13) saved me with a late TD from Ryan Mallett to finish as the #13 fantasy TE in Week 3 (right where I ranked him).
But as you can see, the rest of my picks were pretty bad, so I thought I'd just get them out of the way early. That's not to say my
entire rankings were off - just my handful of picks versus the ESPN experts at each position. Hopefully I can bounce back and do a better job here in Week 4.
Speaking of this week, let's move on and get to the rankings!
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Tom Brady
3.Drew Brees
4.Russell Wilson
5.Matt Ryan
6.Dak Prescott
7.Carson Palmer
8.Marcus Mariota
9.Trevor Siemian
10.Philip Rivers
11.Kirk Cousins
12.Matthew Stafford
13.Alex Smith
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14.Jameis Winston
15.Tyrod Taylor
16.Andy Dalton
17.Carson Wentz
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18.Ben Roethlisberger
19.Derek Carr
20.Deshaun Watson
It's now three weeks in a row that the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 QB. I didn't mind since this time since it was Kirk Cousins (ESPN #8, ME #15), who wasn't even a top-20 fantasy QB through 2 games. He smoked the Raiders at home, but I'm staying down on him this week (relative to the experts) as the Redskins travel to Kansas City. I'll give you someone else I'm down on though because I don't want to badmouth my team's QB two weeks in a row.
I'm high on: Trevor Siemian (ESPN #16, ME #9)
Here's a name that doesn't look like it belongs in the top-10, right? The thing is, it was tough ranking the QBs after the top-5 this week. After that, it feels like a bit of a crapshoot. So why not roll with Siemian here?!? He's been a top-10 fantasy QB through 3 weeks, and he faces an Oakland team that is giving up top-5 numbers to opposing signal callers. Siemian had a rough go of it last week in Buffalo, but now he goes back to Denver where he had multiple touchdowns in each of his first two games this season.
I'm down on: Cam Newton (ESPN #17, ME NOT RANKED)
Cam's best game through three weeks came in San Fran in Week 1 in which he threw for 171 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception. Since then he has ZERO passing TDs and 3 picks. Yikes! He doesn't have Greg Olsen to throw to, and now Kelvin Benjamin is banged up. The Patriots are giving up a lot of fantasy points to opposing QBs, but so are the Saints and Cam had a terrible game against them last week. I don't see how you can rank him as a top-20 fantasy QB until he does more than he's doing right now. Sam Bradford almost has as many fantasy points as Cam, and Bradford has only played in one game this season!
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RBs |
1.Kareem Hunt
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2.Ezekiel Elliott
3.Le'Veon Bell
4.Todd Gurley
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5.Devonta Freeman
6.Jay Ajayi
7.LeSean McCoy
8.Dalvin Cook
9.Melvin Gordon
10.Leonard Fournette
11.Ty Montgomery
12.Carlos Hyde
13.Jordan Howard
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14.Chris Carson
15.C.J. Anderson
16.DeMarco Murray
17.Joe Mixon
18.Christian McCaffery
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19.Lamar Miller
20.Jacquizz Rodgers
21.Mike Gillislee
22.Javorius Allen
23.Marshawn Lynch
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24.Chris Thompson
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25.Tarik Cohen
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26.Isaiah Crowell
27.Mark Ingram
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28.Frank Gore
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29.Ameer Abdullah
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30.Derrick Henry
31.Jonathan Stewart
32.Tevin Coleman
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33.Duke Johnson
34.LeGarrette Blount
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35.Bilal Powell
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36.Rob Kelley
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37.Chris Johnson
38.James White
39.Theo Riddick
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40.Wendell Smallwood
41.Jamaal Charles
42.Alvin Kamara
43.D'Onta Foreman
44.Giovani Bernard
45.Elijah McGuire
46.Paul Perkins
47.Andre Ellington
48.Jalen Richard
49.Chris Ivory
50.Mike Tolbert
I'm high on: Derrick Henry (ESPN #42, ME #30)
Henry and DeMarco are virtually in a 50/50 split behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. I don't see how you can rank Murray as a top-20 guy and Henry outside of the top-40! It doesn't make sense to me, which is why I have Derrick as a solid FLEX play here in Week 4.
I'm down on: Wendell Smallwood (ESPN #31, ME #40)
Let's talk about the latest waiver wire darling in Wendell Smallwood. It may seem like a small difference (9 spots), but I'm not really down on anyone more than that versus the experts this week. With Sproles now lost for the season, Smallwood finds himself in a three way RBBC with Blount and rookie Corey Clement. Oh you forgot about Clement, did you? He was the guy with the highlight reel TD toward the end of the game last week. Blount was the other Philly RB to find the endzone in Week 3. Do you know who didn't score against the Giants? You got it: Smallwood. All three of these backs will get touches against the Chargers, and I actually like Blount more than either of the other two this week. But I don't see how you can rank Smallwood this highly just yet. In fact, I didn't put in a waiver claim for him because I'm not convinced Clement doesn't run away with the job in the next couple of weeks... | | | |
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WRs
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1.Odell Beckham, Jr.
2.Antonio Brown
3.A.J. Green
4.Jordy Nelson
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5.Julio Jones
6.Michael Thomas
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7.Doug Baldwin
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8.Mike Evans
9.DeAndre Hopkins
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10.Brandin Cooks
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11.Stefon Diggs
12.Tyreek Hill
13.Larry Fitzgerald
14.Emmanuel Sanders
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15.DeVante Parker
16.Dez Bryant
17.Demaryius Thomas
18.Golden Tate
19.Keenan Allen
20.Davante Adams
21.Sammy Watkins
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22.Jarvis Landry
23.Kelvin Benjamin
24.Amari Cooper
25.Alshon Jeffery
26.Adam Thielen
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27.Rishard Matthews
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28.Chris Hogan
29.T.Y. Hilton
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30.Michael Crabtree
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31.Marqise Lee
34.Martavis Bryant
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36.Mohamed Sanu
37.Kenny Stills
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38.Jeremy Maclin
39.Terrelle Pryor
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40.Sterling Shepard
41.Pierre Garcon
42.Allen Hurns
43.Paul Richardson
44.Jordan Matthews
45.Devin Funchess
46.Willie Snead
47.J.J. Nelson
48.Danny Amendola
49.Eric Decker
50.Travis Benjamin
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I'm high on: Kenny Stills (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #37)
Last season, I felt like I talked Stills up a lot versus the ESPN experts. It's a new season, but still no respect for Kenny from the experts. He's the type of player who relies on the big play to be successful, but this season he's also in the top-30 fantasy WRs for targets per game. Yes, it's a small sample size. But combine his playmaking ability with 5-10 targets...against the Saints? How do you not rank him?!?
I'm down on: Pierre Garcon (ESPN #23, ME #41)
I saw what he did last Thursday against the Rams, and I actually like Garcon a lot for the season. I think he'll end up as a top-25 WR. Just not this week. And why do I think that? Two words: Patrick Peterson. Peterson has SHUT DOWN opposing WRs this season (like every season), and you really should account for him when doing your WR rankings. OK. Dez scored a TD last week. But he had 2 catches for 12 yards! I'll pass on Garcon against Arizona.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Jimmy Graham
5.Delanie Walker
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6.Kyle Rudolph
7.Evan Engram
8.Jason Witten
9.Charles Clay
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10.Martellus Bennett
11.Jared Cook
12.Eric Ebron
13.Benjamin Watson
14.Jack Doyle
15.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
I'm not ranking Jordan Reed this week because he didn't play in Week 3, and his status for Week 4 is still up in the air. Also, the Redskins play on Monday night. If I owned Reed, I'd make other plans and go ahead and start someone before Monday. Of course you could always pick up Vernon Davis and play him, but I'm not sure he'll be a top-15 option at Kansas City. I'm not really down on anyone this week versus the ESPN experts (other than Reed who they ranked 8th and I didn't rank due to his injury), but I will give you someone I like a lot...
I'm high on: Evan Engram (ESPN #12, ME #7)
The ESPN experts are still giving no love to Ben Watson, but I'd rather not talk him up for the 3rd week in a row. I'd like to take the time to mention Engram, a rookie who has the 11th most fantasy points and 6th most targets among all tight ends through 3 weeks. Now he travels to Tampa, where the Bucs haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to the position this year. But they've also only played two games. They shut down Kyle Rudolph last week, but Zach Miller had a decent game against them in Week 2. I like for Eli to continue to throw to his TE and for Engram to make some plays this week.
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DEF
1.Seahawks
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2.Jaguars
3.Cardinals
4.Chiefs
5.Bengals
6.Packers
7.Broncos
8.Steelers
9.Patriots
10.Lions
11.Ravens
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12.Vikings
I'm high on : Detroit Lions (ESPN #19, ME #10)
Can Case Keenum put it all together for two weeks in a row? In a word..."no". The Lions are the #1 fantasy defense in my league (based on our scoring system) through 3 weeks, and I don't see Minnesota's O-line slowing them down. I like Detroit as a top-10 fantasy defense this week, but the ESPN experts do NOT.
I'm down on: Houston Texans (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED)
One ESPN expert has the Texans as high as 5th this week, and I don't get it. They're hosting the Titans, who have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up nearly 25 points per game, which includes 29 points in a loss to Jacksonville at home in Week 1! I don't think this week will be any better, and I think Tennessee will take care of the ball and put up at least 30 on the Texans.
Good luck to everyone in Week 4!
(Except you, David...)
Cheers,
Bart
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