Here it is, folks. I'm finally getting around to posting my preseason article, and it's a big one. Like I said in my last rankings update, I don't really have the time to write a bunch of articles this year. So I'm not going to do separate pieces, but I'll give you a condensed version of a few of them right here. And I promise I'll do my best to keep up with the weekly rankings once the season starts.
I'm going to kick this thing off with a handful of guys I probably won't be drafting this year. After looking at early rankings throughout the various websites I read, I always find that I have several players ranked much lower than the “experts”. And while I'm not saying it's impossible that I'll draft any of these guys, it's definitely unlikely. Things could certainly change in the coming weeks, but I'm comparing my rankings with the expert preseason rankings as of right now.
If you read my blog in previous years, you'll recall some picks I nailed and some that I totally missed. That very well could be the case again. I guess we'll have to wait and see...
WRs for the Rams
In my last couple of rankings, I had Brian Quick in my top-168. But I'm not sure that'll be the case in my next update as he's still recovering from an offseason shoulder injury. And aside from Quick, there's really no clear-cut #1 WR in St. Louis. Unless Nick Foles starts showing any sort of preference in the preseason, this just seems like a 20-25% chance of picking the right guy. Granted, it'll be in the later rounds. But I'm likely just going to look elsewhere for my 3rd or 4th WR in my draft.
Jay Ajayi
He's not even projected to be Miami's #2 RB behind Lamar Miller, but a lot of experts have him in their top-100. I understand getting excited about a rookie's fantasy potential, but Ajayi has been dealing with a hamstring injury in camp and is listed 4th on the first release of the Dolphin's depth chart.
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| This is now, now... |
If you read my blog in previous years, you'll recall some picks I nailed and some that I totally missed. That very well could be the case again. I guess we'll have to wait and see...
WRs for the Rams
In my last couple of rankings, I had Brian Quick in my top-168. But I'm not sure that'll be the case in my next update as he's still recovering from an offseason shoulder injury. And aside from Quick, there's really no clear-cut #1 WR in St. Louis. Unless Nick Foles starts showing any sort of preference in the preseason, this just seems like a 20-25% chance of picking the right guy. Granted, it'll be in the later rounds. But I'm likely just going to look elsewhere for my 3rd or 4th WR in my draft.
Jay Ajayi
He's not even projected to be Miami's #2 RB behind Lamar Miller, but a lot of experts have him in their top-100. I understand getting excited about a rookie's fantasy potential, but Ajayi has been dealing with a hamstring injury in camp and is listed 4th on the first release of the Dolphin's depth chart.
Any Patriot RB not name LeGarrette Blount
Here are some names that won't crack my top-168 this year: James White, Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, and Travaris Cadet. I mean, take your pick if you feel lucky playing Belichick running back roulette, but it's not for me this year. Blount will miss the opener against the Steelers because, well, he likes to smoke weed. So any of those other four guys could very well earn themselves some extra playing time with the opportunity early on. But I just don't know which one of the four it'll be. All of the reports out of New England right now say good things about all of these guys, and I'm not going to try to guess which one or two (aside from Blount) that will be viable fantasy options on a weekly basis.
Jordan Cameron
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| I'm sure someone else will reach higher than me for Cameron. |
There are a lot of question marks at the tight end position this year, and it starts right at the top. Will Gronk be without Brady for 4 games? Will Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas still catch TDs in their new digs? Honestly, after Gronk, I think TE gets really iffy. Assuming I don't end up with Mr. Fiesta, I probably won't take a tight end until pretty late in my draft. That means I almost certainly won't end up with Cameron, who is in the top-100 for most. I just think that's too high for a guy in his 5th NFL season who has had ONE good year and hasn't played a full 16-game season yet. I'll probably end up with someone outside of the preseason top-10 and hope they end up as a nice surprise.
Jets D
Every expert seems to be ranking this squad in their top-10, but I can't figure out why. They were a bottom-5 fantasy D last year and a bottom-10 team the year before that. I guess they've done an OK job in the offseason through the draft and free agency, but I don't see it completely turning them into a dominant fantasy defense like they were years ago. I'm not wasting a pick on the Jets only to waive them in Week 2 when they travel to Indy and get lit up for 40+ points.
I realize I talked about this last year, but here I am again advocating total disregard for a kicker with a Week 4 bye. I'm sure Gostkowski will be a top-5 fantasy kicker this year, but I definitely won't be drafting him. I mean, maybe he'll end up on my roster at some point this season. But it'll be Week 5 after I pick him up off the waiver wire if he makes it to my squad. You see, whoever drafts Gostkowski in my league is going to be faced with a tough decision less than a month into the 2015 NFL season: do they waive a kicker or a young guy with potential? My league doesn't have a ton of roster spots, so I'm not trying to have two kickers on my team in Week 4. Then you end up waiving some guy you're still kind of excited about but who hasn't quite gotten it going yet (think Odell Beckham, Jr. last season). Do yourself a favor and don't draft a kicker with an early bye week. And yes, that include Gostkowski.
Enough talk about kickers though. How about some of the guys ready for the next level? In previous years, I gave you a full offensive team of players primed to make that jump from fantasy irrelevance straight to a top-10 or top-20 at their position (depending on where they were in the previous season). This year, I'll give you a shortened list of those dudes. As a reminder, I'm not talking about players who are already top-10 or top-15 in the preseason rankings. Everyone expects C.J. Anderson and Travis Kelce to be one of the best at their positions in 2015. I'm talking about some of the guys who are little more off the radar. Let's see who we have this year.
QB: Derek Carr
So maybe this is a bit of a stretch, but I think Carr could make some big strides in his second year in the league. This is a guy who threw for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs in his rookie year, and he finished as a top-20 fantasy QB. He also did all of that with WRs like James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Denarius Moore. Fast forward to 2015: Jones and Moore are both with other teams, and Holmes is down the depth chart behind guys like Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. In addition to those two, Carr also has a pair of young TEs to throw to in Mychael Rivera and Clive Walford. They added a veteran RB in Roy Helu (from my Redskins) who is a good pass-catching 3rd down back to complement Latavius Murray. Derek Carr definitely has some better weapons to work with this year, and I think he could finish as a top-15 fantasy QB.
RB: Charles Sims
Once again Lovie Smith is committing to Doug Martin, but forgive me if I don't 100% believe him. Maybe I'm bitter because I drafted Martin in the early rounds last season and he did jack squat. Well, Lovie drafted Sims, and I'm sure he plans to actually use him. If anything, the 2nd-year RB out of West Virginia should be in there on third downs and catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. I think he'll have really good value in PPR leagues, but I think he could even get the chance to take over for the Muscle Hamster and be the lead back for the Bucs this year at some point (especially if they end up a 3 or 4 win team again).
WR: Martavis Bryant
Most people realize that guys like Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews are in perfect situations to become top-10 fantasy WRs in 2015. But here's a guy who could do just as much as the #2 option as those guys might do as #1s. The Steelers throw the ball a TON these days, and you know teams are going to double cover Antonio Brown. Sure, Big Ben is talking up Markus Wheaton right now. But we heard some of that last year too. I don't even think Martavis needs to play 50% of the snaps in order to be a huge factor for fantasy teams this year. I mean, he only played in 11 games in his rookie season (which includes the postseason loss to Baltimore). He totaled over 600 yards and 9 TDs in that short amount of time. With his big play ability, I could easily see him going for 800 yards and double-digit TDs this year.
TE: Tyler Eifert
Like I already said, the obvious pick at this position is Travis Kelce, but no one is sleeping on that guy this year. In fact, no one is sleeping on Zac Ertz or Josh Hill either. Maybe they should be on those last two, but time will tell. For now, all of these tight ends are ranked top-10 at their position here in August. But Tyler Eifert is still flying under the radar, even after Jermaine Gresham left Cincy to sign a 1-year deal with the Cardinals. And you know what? That's just fine by me. Let him slip in the draft because I'll scoop him up if he's there late. We really haven't seen much of what this kid can do in the NFL just yet. He had a solid rookie season in which he caught 39 balls for 445 yards and a pair of TDs. But then he suffered a season-ending elbow injury in Week 1 last season. Hopefully he had plenty of time to study the playbook and get ready for 2015. I think we could see 700 yards and 6 or 7 TDs from Eifert this year, which would easily put him in the top-10 fantasy TEs.
So I'm going to finish up this article with one of my favorite exercises. Last year I called it "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?" Basically I just went through and did a quick Q&A to try to predict some long shots...I repeat: LONG SHOTS. You'll see what I'm talking about...
Q: Who is this year's Zac Stacy (2013) or Tre Mason (2014)?
[Description: A rookie (later-round draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]
A: David Cobb
Last year I went with Lorenzo Taliaferro in this spot, but that didn't quite pan out. Instead, it was Tre Mason who went undrafted in nearly every fantasy draft but eventually finished as a top-25 fantasy running back in 2014. This year I'm going to take a stab at the Titan backfield, which is about as muddled as any in the NFL. Bishop Sankey was the first RB selected in the 2014 draft, but he didn't do much in his rookie campaign. Then Tennessee went and drafted Cobb this year, which tells me they have little faith in Sankey. Of course Cobb could just be replacing the plodding Shonne Greene, but I think he has a good chance to be the feature back for the Titans.
Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013) or Mark Ingram (2014)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]
A: Darren McFadden
Do I think this will actually happen? No, I don't. But he sure fits the description! Personally, I think Joseph Randle will hit the ground running (literally) and be the bellcow for the Cowboys this year. But if McFadden can make the team and stay healthy, the former 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft could rejuvenate his career in Big D. Time will tell.
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013) or Darren Sproles (2014)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
A: Reggie Bush
Last year I went with Dexter McCluster, and I might've just been a year too early with him. But the answer actually could be Danny Woodhead again. Let me give you another guy who fits this description in 2015 though. No, I'm not going to say C.J. Spiller. He's not "sneaking" into anyone's top-20. But right now, Reggie Bush is ranked in the 40s on average for the RB position. Carlos Hyde might not be the workhorse everyone thinks he can be, and the 49ers could be passing a lot. That could mean more work for Bush, and he could sneak his way into the top 20 or 25 fantasy RBs this season.
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013) or Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014)?
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy. Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]
A: DeVante Parker
Last year I talked up Jordan Matthews here, and he was pretty spot on. But there was an even better fit by year end, and that was Odell Beckham, Jr. Odell started his first NFL season dealing with a hamstring issue and missed the first 4 games of 2014. DeVante is still recovering from foot surgery and could end up missing some time at the beginning of his rookie season as well. Beckham, Jr. was the 12th overall selection by the Giants. The Dolphins took Parker with the 14th overall pick. The similarities are there, and DeVante Parker could find himself becoming Tannehill's #1 target once he gets healthy and onto the field. I'm not sure how high he'll be in my next rankings update, but he'l definitely crack the top-168.
Until then...um, stay classy I guess.
Enough talk about kickers though. How about some of the guys ready for the next level? In previous years, I gave you a full offensive team of players primed to make that jump from fantasy irrelevance straight to a top-10 or top-20 at their position (depending on where they were in the previous season). This year, I'll give you a shortened list of those dudes. As a reminder, I'm not talking about players who are already top-10 or top-15 in the preseason rankings. Everyone expects C.J. Anderson and Travis Kelce to be one of the best at their positions in 2015. I'm talking about some of the guys who are little more off the radar. Let's see who we have this year.
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| A top-20 fantasy QB as a rookie with bad WRs...he'll be better. |
So maybe this is a bit of a stretch, but I think Carr could make some big strides in his second year in the league. This is a guy who threw for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs in his rookie year, and he finished as a top-20 fantasy QB. He also did all of that with WRs like James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Denarius Moore. Fast forward to 2015: Jones and Moore are both with other teams, and Holmes is down the depth chart behind guys like Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. In addition to those two, Carr also has a pair of young TEs to throw to in Mychael Rivera and Clive Walford. They added a veteran RB in Roy Helu (from my Redskins) who is a good pass-catching 3rd down back to complement Latavius Murray. Derek Carr definitely has some better weapons to work with this year, and I think he could finish as a top-15 fantasy QB.
RB: Charles Sims
Once again Lovie Smith is committing to Doug Martin, but forgive me if I don't 100% believe him. Maybe I'm bitter because I drafted Martin in the early rounds last season and he did jack squat. Well, Lovie drafted Sims, and I'm sure he plans to actually use him. If anything, the 2nd-year RB out of West Virginia should be in there on third downs and catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. I think he'll have really good value in PPR leagues, but I think he could even get the chance to take over for the Muscle Hamster and be the lead back for the Bucs this year at some point (especially if they end up a 3 or 4 win team again).
WR: Martavis Bryant
Most people realize that guys like Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews are in perfect situations to become top-10 fantasy WRs in 2015. But here's a guy who could do just as much as the #2 option as those guys might do as #1s. The Steelers throw the ball a TON these days, and you know teams are going to double cover Antonio Brown. Sure, Big Ben is talking up Markus Wheaton right now. But we heard some of that last year too. I don't even think Martavis needs to play 50% of the snaps in order to be a huge factor for fantasy teams this year. I mean, he only played in 11 games in his rookie season (which includes the postseason loss to Baltimore). He totaled over 600 yards and 9 TDs in that short amount of time. With his big play ability, I could easily see him going for 800 yards and double-digit TDs this year.
TE: Tyler Eifert
Like I already said, the obvious pick at this position is Travis Kelce, but no one is sleeping on that guy this year. In fact, no one is sleeping on Zac Ertz or Josh Hill either. Maybe they should be on those last two, but time will tell. For now, all of these tight ends are ranked top-10 at their position here in August. But Tyler Eifert is still flying under the radar, even after Jermaine Gresham left Cincy to sign a 1-year deal with the Cardinals. And you know what? That's just fine by me. Let him slip in the draft because I'll scoop him up if he's there late. We really haven't seen much of what this kid can do in the NFL just yet. He had a solid rookie season in which he caught 39 balls for 445 yards and a pair of TDs. But then he suffered a season-ending elbow injury in Week 1 last season. Hopefully he had plenty of time to study the playbook and get ready for 2015. I think we could see 700 yards and 6 or 7 TDs from Eifert this year, which would easily put him in the top-10 fantasy TEs.
So I'm going to finish up this article with one of my favorite exercises. Last year I called it "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?" Basically I just went through and did a quick Q&A to try to predict some long shots...I repeat: LONG SHOTS. You'll see what I'm talking about...
Q: Who is this year's Zac Stacy (2013) or Tre Mason (2014)?
[Description: A rookie (later-round draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]
A: David Cobb
Last year I went with Lorenzo Taliaferro in this spot, but that didn't quite pan out. Instead, it was Tre Mason who went undrafted in nearly every fantasy draft but eventually finished as a top-25 fantasy running back in 2014. This year I'm going to take a stab at the Titan backfield, which is about as muddled as any in the NFL. Bishop Sankey was the first RB selected in the 2014 draft, but he didn't do much in his rookie campaign. Then Tennessee went and drafted Cobb this year, which tells me they have little faith in Sankey. Of course Cobb could just be replacing the plodding Shonne Greene, but I think he has a good chance to be the feature back for the Titans.Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013) or Mark Ingram (2014)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]
A: Darren McFadden
Do I think this will actually happen? No, I don't. But he sure fits the description! Personally, I think Joseph Randle will hit the ground running (literally) and be the bellcow for the Cowboys this year. But if McFadden can make the team and stay healthy, the former 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft could rejuvenate his career in Big D. Time will tell.
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013) or Darren Sproles (2014)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
A: Reggie Bush
Last year I went with Dexter McCluster, and I might've just been a year too early with him. But the answer actually could be Danny Woodhead again. Let me give you another guy who fits this description in 2015 though. No, I'm not going to say C.J. Spiller. He's not "sneaking" into anyone's top-20. But right now, Reggie Bush is ranked in the 40s on average for the RB position. Carlos Hyde might not be the workhorse everyone thinks he can be, and the 49ers could be passing a lot. That could mean more work for Bush, and he could sneak his way into the top 20 or 25 fantasy RBs this season.
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| Woa woa woa! Watch the foot, homie!! |
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy. Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]
A: DeVante Parker
Last year I talked up Jordan Matthews here, and he was pretty spot on. But there was an even better fit by year end, and that was Odell Beckham, Jr. Odell started his first NFL season dealing with a hamstring issue and missed the first 4 games of 2014. DeVante is still recovering from foot surgery and could end up missing some time at the beginning of his rookie season as well. Beckham, Jr. was the 12th overall selection by the Giants. The Dolphins took Parker with the 14th overall pick. The similarities are there, and DeVante Parker could find himself becoming Tannehill's #1 target once he gets healthy and onto the field. I'm not sure how high he'll be in my next rankings update, but he'l definitely crack the top-168.
Until then...um, stay classy I guess.
Cheers,
Bart
Derek Carr, as a top 15 QB, eh? What do you think about Teddy Bridgewater to make some big strides in his second year? The return of Peterson, a healthy Kyle Rudolph, and the addition of Mike Wallace are all going to help out, and he's looked rock solid through two (albeit) preseason games. You've got to love that completion percentage, and I do see you had him higher than Carr on your rankings. What kind of ceiling do you think he has? Show some love to your loyal Vikings-fan readers!
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you about Bridgewater. The thing is, I have him ranked as my #15 QB and that's right where the experts have him ranked. I could see drafting him in the top-10 QBs because I think he could definitely finish there. As for Carr, I plan to move him into my next rankings update probably around the #18 or 19 QB. Currently, the experts I look at have Carr ranked around 24-27. I just felt the need to highlight David Carr because I haven't seen many people writing about him. Most people see Bridgewater potentially taking a leap into that QB1 territory (similar to Tannehill last year), but no one seems to be talking about Carr in Oakland...
ReplyDelete